Amazonia: The Security Agenda (ASA)

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Presentation of the Project "Amazonia:
The Security Agenda: at the Conference "Climate Change and Security at the Crossroads – Pathways to Conflict or Cooperation”, Kristiansand, Norway, June 21th, 2013

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Amazonia: The Security Agenda (ASA)

  1. 1. Amazonia: The Security Agenda "Climate Change and Security at the Crossroads – Pathways to Conflict or Cooperation” Kristiansand, Norway June 21th, 2013
  2. 2. Contents I. The value of water in the Amazon II. Threats to water security III. Defining securities IV. Methods V. Results VI. Discussion: interactions with food, health and energy security VII. Policy recommendations
  3. 3. I. The value of Amazonia’s water
  4. 4. The Amazon basin Largest source of freshwater on Earth ~ 6,300 km3 of water discharged annually into the Atlantic ocean (15-20% of global freshwater that flows into the oceans) ~ 6.4 million sq km (44% of South America's surface area)
  5. 5. The Amazon: contributions to national productivity and values of exports 39% of hydroelectric energy 41% of cattle 24% of natural gas US$ 700 million from soybean (2011) US$ 3900 million from natural gas (2011) 37 % of cattle 17 % of natural gas US$ 7000 million for soybean (2012) US$ 1600 million for beef (2012) 23 % of oil 24 % of fish US$ 94 million from oil - Alto Putumayo (2000) 35 % of hydroelectric energy 99 % of oil US$ 196 million for coffee (Amazonas and San Martin) (2011) US$ 166 million for timber (2011) 73% of oil and liquid natural gas 22% of hydroelectric energy 14 % of extracted gold (Madre de Dios) US$ 8900 million from oil (2010)
  6. 6. Around 10 million people in the Amazon depend on water for household consumption, subsistence food production, health, electricity, river transportation, etc. Amazonia's water and livelihoods
  7. 7. II. Threats to Amazonia’s waters
  8. 8. Human pressures/ increased demand driving LUC • Deforestation (forest loss can accelerate CC) • Expansion of the agricultural frontier • Extractive activities (e.g. mining, oil and gas explorations) Climate extremes Droughts in 2005, 2010 Affecting ~1.9 million and 3 million km² respectively US $ 150 million of economic losses in Acre (Brazil) (2005) 62.000 people affected in the Amazonas (Brazil) (2010)
  9. 9. III. Defining securities
  10. 10. Climate change and its possible security implications Climate security: “Protection from the threat of disease, hunger, unemployment, crime, social conflict, political repression and environmental hazards.” Climate change: “threat multiplier”, given its potential to aggravate the risks posed by “poverty, weak institutional capacity, etc. (UNGA 2009).” The growing security threats of climate change are now part of the international multilateral agenda. A United Nations Secretary General’ report, addressed Climate change and its possible security implications, raising attention to the implications that climate change may have on food security, human health, increased human exposure to extreme events, competition over natural resources, migration and displacement and international conflict.
  11. 11. Water, food, energy and health security The capacity of a population to secure sustained access to adequate and suitable water; depends on physical water availability, socio- economic factors determining access to water, and the impact of water-related hazards such as droughts and floods. All people, at all times, having physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO) Access to a reliable and affordable supply of energy, and is determined by physical, technical and economic factors. Energy security is central to development and increasing quality of life. Protection against threats of food insecurity, emerging diseases and pandemics, including transborder spread.
  12. 12. IV. Methods (1) 1. Literature review – the state of securities in the Amazon (including LUC and CC) 2. Assessing water balance, water stress index and quality (Human footprint index) – WaterWorld (Mulligan et al. 2010) 3. Assessing current pressures and future threats to water security - Co$ting Nature
  13. 13. Methods (2) 4. Assessing land use change impacts on water security LUC scenario: recent rates up until 2050, where protected areas are ineffectively managed and cannot halt deforestation rates in these zones. ACCEL scenario: recent rates of observed deforestation were quadrupled but with no deforestation in protected areas permitted (ie the PAs are effectively managed).
  14. 14. Methods (3) 5. Assessing impacts of climate change on water security (WaterWorld and the IPCC A2 scenario) 1st scenario: ensemble mean scenario for the 2050s of all 20 available Global circulation Models (GCMs) 2nd scenario: ensemble mean minus 1 ensemble deviation (2050s) 3rd scenario: for 2080s to understand longer term water security and the consistency of projected trends into the future.
  15. 15. Methods (4) 6. Identifying water security hotspots 7. Discussion of implications of LUC and CC impacts on food production, energy generation and health in the region 8. Recommendations for regional cooperation
  16. 16. V. Results and discussions V. Results and Discussion
  17. 17. Amazonia’s Water Basin The Amazon boundary (ATCO sensu latissimo), watershed (derived from HydroSHEDS) and countries. The map also shows tree cover 2000 based on MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (Hansen et al., 2006)
  18. 18. LUC impacts more on water quality than on water quantity Change in HF index in LUC (left) and ACCEL (right) scenarios for 2050s
  19. 19. Changes in HF index and concessions for extractive activities Pixel-scale (left) and sub-basin scale (right) increase in HF pollution index resulting from operationalisation of 1% of oil and gas concessions Converting only 1% of the oil and gas concession area in Ecuador and northern Peru to oil production, indicates that this would increase the HF pollution index by between 0.5 and 2% for all catchments on a sub-basin level
  20. 20. Changes in HF index and concessions for extractive activities Pixel-scale (left) and sub-basin scale (right) increase in HF pollution index resulting from operationalisation of 10% of mining concessions converting 10% of the mining concession area in Ecuador and northern Peru (only some of which is within the Amazon watershed) to mining, indicates that this would increase the HF pollution index by between 5 and 10% for many of the upland catchments on a sub-basin level
  21. 21. Climate change: more significant changes in rainfall than in temperature at the basin level by 2050s and 2080s. Change in rainfall with AR4 A2 mean of all models 2050s (left), AR4 A2 mean of all (20) models minus one sd 2050s (middle) and mean of all (20) models 2080s scenarios
  22. 22. Climate Change and changes in water stress (2050s and 2080s) Change in water stress with the three scenarios, % of industrial and domestic (blue water) demand not supplied in months at which supply<demand across the year (not including future population growth or agriulture change) 2050s 2050s 2080s Changing water stress index => changes in hydropower potential, multiplier effect on fires and droughts, affect water quality
  23. 23. Climate Change and changes in water quality Change in human footprint on water with AR4 A2 mean of all (20) models 2050s (left), with AR4 A2 mean of all minus one standard deviation models 2050s (middle) and witth AR4 A2 mean of all (20) models 2080s (right)
  24. 24. Water security hotspots Sensitivity of water balance to rainfall change (mm/mm), at sub-basin scale
  25. 25. Water security hotspots Sensitivity of water stress index to change in tree cover (%/%) associated with conversion to pasture
  26. 26. Water security underpinning other securities • Water quantity and quality Agriculture and fisheries Yields of soy will diminish 28% by 2050 • Seasonality of water supply -> food production • Poor water quality and availability Risks in hydroelectric plants • Poor water quality oil refining and mining
  27. 27. Water security underpinning other securities • Water quantity riverine transport (liquid fuels transportation, local access, transport of agricultural products; access to health services) • Climate regulation impacts on the range and transmission of climate sensitive diseases. Poor water quality leading to health insecurity, water regulation impacting on waterborne diseases and water flow affecting spread of infectious diseases • Extreme events impact on health security through infectious diseases, outbreaks, damage to food production, fires, etc.
  28. 28. Policy Recommendations
  29. 29. 1. Zones for sustainable interventions to safeguard water security (ZES) The ZES would be established in areas neighboring the Amazon Region to limit the expanding agricultural frontier, as well as in zones critical for sustaining the Region’s water security. Likewise, the most vulnerable areas shall be identified and prioritized. Such areas are those whose climates and land use are undergoing changes that generate considerable risk to natural resources, human welfare, and economic activities in the short, medium, and long term.
  30. 30. ZES: Key activities ZES Guaranteeing the provision of ecosystem services Safe technology Resilient transport Tax-exempt economic activities Promotion of inclusive markets; Micro-credits Strengthening mechanisms of institutional support Regional or international funding
  31. 31. 2. Regional platform for monitoring and exchanging knowledge on different securities The growing threats to water, food, energy, and health security in the Amazon Region (and particularly their interactions) are not efficiently monitored at either the regional or national level. Quality information of a scientific nature is needed on the status of the different securities and on the regional threats to water security. Such information would provide input into the formulation of strategies and public policies for effective adaptation.
  32. 32. Purposes of a knowledge-sharing methodology Defining a methodology, agreed upon by the Amazon countries, to monitor and report on indicators for the different securities. Promoting the exchange of research and information to foster increased knowledge on the interdependence between securities and the possible impact of changes in climate and land use. Generating information on regional securities in near real-time, emphasizing key economic areas. Defining and geo-referencing “zones of high risk to securities” Exchanging successful experiences (South-South exchange)
  33. 33. 3. Incorporate the provision of water, food, energy and health security into national planning Climate change (including extreme climatic phenomena) multiplies threats to securities provided by the Amazon Region. Many Amazon countries have recognized the importance of including climatic variability and climate change for the long term in public policies, and have incorporated them into national and regional development plans and into national adaptation plans, among others.
  34. 34. To ensure that these public policies respond adequately to the needs of safeguarding water, food, energy, and health (and their interactions) in the Amazon Region and beyond, some activities are recommended: Design action plans that strategically incorporate securities while reducing inequity, inequality, and poverty, and strongly focusing on promoting the fundamental rights associated with the securities needed by the inhabitants of the Amazon Region (e.g., the right to a standard of living that is adequate for ensuring health and access to food, potable water, necessary social services, etc.) Promote regional dialogue and differential approaches for specific regions, recognizing the strategic role of the Amazon Region in maintaining securities. Recognize the interrelationships among securities through interventions that are strategically centered on multipliers of opportunities
  35. 35. Thank you! More information www.dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/ www.ciat.cgiar.org c.navarrete@cgiar.org a.jarvis@cgiar.org a.c.nowak@cgiar.org

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