Climate Change & Food Safety_2012


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Climate Change & Food Safety_2012

  1. 1. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구Food Safety Challengesdue to Climate Change기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netKi-Hwan Park, ProfessorDept. of Food Sci. & Tech.Chung-Ang UniversityILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)ILSI SEA Region 6th Asian Conference on Food and Nutrition Safety (Nov 2012)
  2. 2. 목목목목 차차차차Global Climate ChangeCC & Food SafetyOverview of Research GroupFood Safety Control Strategy
  3. 3. Grinnell Glacier National Park, MT기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netGlobal Climate Change
  4. 4. Enhanced greenhouse effectClimatechange기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netcoolerwarmer stormswindsfloodsdroughts3
  5. 5. Rising temperatureIncreases in pathogen growthand infectionMore precipitationmore and longer periods withfavorable pathogenenvironmentsManagement practicesRising CO2 levelIn general…기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netManagement practices⇒⇒⇒⇒Rapid bacterial growth⇒⇒⇒⇒ rapid host resistancebreakdownFrequent strong rainfall⇒⇒⇒⇒ less effective residues ofpesticideRising CO2 level⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at theHigher CO2 levels⇒⇒⇒⇒ lower plant decomposition⇒⇒⇒⇒ more plant residues foroverwinter⇒⇒⇒⇒ more inoculum levels at thebeginning of grwoing season4
  6. 6. According to 4th IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report,climate change is altering disaster risk patterns in three main ways :Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as morefrequent extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, more intensetropical cyclones and expanded area affected by drought and floods;Changes in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards;Global Climate ChangePrediction of Global Climate Change기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netChanges in geographical distribution of area affected by hazards;Increase in vulnerability of particular social groups and economicsectors due to sea level rise, ecosystem stress and glacier melting.Hurricane Katrina,U.S.ATsunami,AsiaEarthquakeChinaFlood,U.KHot Summer,FranceDrought,AfricaIce Melting,PeruEl Nino5
  7. 7. Global warming will accelerate with predictions of the average increase inglobal temperature ranging from 1.8 to 4℃℃℃℃(IPCC, 2007) .By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to sufferincreased water stress in sub-Saharan Africa and by 2080 2 to 7 millionmore people per year, will be affected by coastal flooding (Yohe et al., 2007).Global Climate ChangePrediction of Global Climate Change기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netOf the 262 million people affected annually by climate disasters between2000 and 2004, more than 98 percent lived in developing countries(UNISDR/CRED, 2007).6
  8. 8. Temperature: In 2020, +1.5℃℃℃℃ In 2050, +3.0℃℃℃℃ In 2080, +5.0℃℃℃℃Precipitation: In 2020, +5 % In 2050, +7 % In 2080, +15 %Sea level: Increase 50 cm by 2100Seasons: Summer increase by 45 days and winter decrease by 63 days in 2080Climate Change in KoreaClimate Change in KoreaNational Institute of Meteorological Research, 2007기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netHan Riverin 1950Han River inpresent9
  9. 9. 14.514.514.514.514.>80mm)Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm)Days(>80mm)Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)Days(>150mm)Climate Change in Korea기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netPrecipitationTemperature ExtremesRisingtemperaturesChangingprecipitationExtreme eventstropical storms etc.℃℃℃℃+ 1.8℃℃℃℃ + 217㎜㎜㎜㎜⇒⇒⇒⇒⇒⇒⇒⇒80 ㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 110 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 172 days150 ㎜㎜㎜㎜ storm 16 ⇒⇒⇒⇒ 31 days11. 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s8008008008001910s1910s1910s1910s 1920s1920s1920s1920s 1930s1930s1930s1930s 1940s1940s1940s1940s 1950s1950s1950s1950s 1960s1960s1960s1960s 1970s1970s1970s1970s 1980s1980s1980s1980s 1990s1990s1990s1990s 2000s2000s2000s2000s10
  10. 10. present ℃℃℃℃4℃℃℃℃ increase℃℃℃℃2℃℃℃℃ increaseIncreasing temperature makes Koreasubtropical기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단℃℃℃℃℃℃℃℃Increasing temperature 2℃℃℃℃ makes southern part of Korea subtropical areaIncreasing temperature 4 ℃℃℃℃ makes almost all peninsula subtropical areaSummer period is longer than beforewintersummerwintersummer11
  11. 11. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netClimate Change & Food Safety
  12. 12. • Globalisation & changing food trade patterns•• ClimateClimate changechange• Technology development (for exampleMajor drivers of food safety risks기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단• Technology development (for examplenanotechnology)• Economy13
  13. 13. • Temperatures will increase, winters will be wetter, summersdrier and there will be an increase in intense rain events• Changes are likely to affect the prevalence of disease and theusage of chemicalsPotential impacts on risks of chemicalsand pathogens from agriculture기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단• Changes in soil characteristics and hydrology• Climatic changes likely to affect fate and transport ofpathogens and chemicals• Risks could be very different from today14
  14. 14. • Flooding will increase exposure and risk to endemic livestock pathogens(anthrax, liver fluke, fecal/oral pathogens)• Ectoparasitic diseases will increase• Emergence, and increase in prevalence, of some arthropod vector-bornediseases in livestock is likelyImpacts of CC on Animal Disease기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단• Prevalence of diseases caused by anaerobic spore-forming bacteria (e.g.botulism and anthrax) may increase due to wetter conditions• The prevalence of liver flukes may increase because of warmer, wetterconditions• The prevalence of endemic diseases (e.g. Escherichia coli O157,Toxoplasma, Giardia, salmonellas, campylobacters) transmitted by fecal-oralroutes may increase due to flooding and wetter conditions, althoughenvironmental survival is typically less15
  15. 15. Climate change & HazardsGlacierMeltingChanges in theAtmosphere: Composition,CirculationN2, O2, CO2, Ar,N2O, CH4 , O3 etc.Increase Sea level and temp.Changes in theHydrologicalCycleHazards Outbreaks기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netSea IceIncrease Sea level and temp.Change plankton HABContaminating ShellfishIncrease Useof PesticidesEnhance pest activityRapid reproducingSpread after floodsIncrease vector-borne virusIncrease livestockdiseaseIncrease use of Vet.drugIncrease precipitation,temp. & humidityPoorly dried cropMycotoxin ProducedIncrease pesticides16
  16. 16. • Importance of integrated approach to food safety, animaland plant health, with associated environmental risks• Need to intensify efforts to implement programmes of foodsafety control system at national level– Application of good practicesClimate change related phenomenahighlighted…기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단– Monitoring and surveillance (food, environment, animal andhuman health)• Need of predictive approaches (modelling, strategies)17
  17. 17. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netOverview ofResearch Group on Food SafetyControl against Climate Change
  18. 18. Name of Research Group :“Research Group on Food Safety Control against Climate Change”Research Group Leader : Prof. Ki-Hwan Park (Chung-Ang Univ.)Research Grant : $2 Million/yearResearch Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years)IntroductionClimate Change & Food Safety Research기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netResearch Period : 2010 ~ 2014 (5 Years)No. of Research Sub-projects : 23 projects19
  19. 19. Strategy & Structure of Research Group1st Mid UnitPrediction & Model DevelopmentHealth evaluation and R&D PlanningCollaboration and SymposiumFood Safety Prediction on ClimateChange2nd Mid UnitBacteria, Virus, Parasites, Shellfish toxinMycotoxin, Pesticides, Vet. Drug,Rapid Detection MethodControl and Analysis of Hazards thruSimulation and MonitoringFood SafetyControl1 2 3 4기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.net3rd Mid Unit 4th Mid UnitDevelopment of Safety ControlProcess TechnologyConsumer Awareness SurveyRisk Communication with ExpertEducation and Public RelationConsumer Awareness and RiskCommunicationLow Co2 Tech. & Green foods PolicyControl Technology in ManufactureProcess Distribution, Foreign MaterialsSystem onClimateChangeHazardsClimateChange1 2 3 4RiskCommunicationProcessingPrediction Model20
  20. 20. Patent application!Centralized DatabaseCentralized Database Big dataBig data--mining (data analysis)mining (data analysis)CCCC--MIMSMIMS ccfsccfs--DMCDMCData collection, analysis and construction ofstatistical basis for climate change information기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단• Multi-dimensional data merging, processingbetween climate change and hazard variables• Statistical data-miningDescriptive analysisPredictive analysisLag-time effect processing• Risk Profile D/B against climate changeCause/Effect tracking approachProvide visual database service(Monitoring Information Management Systemdue to climate change)(Data Mining Center for food safety against climate change)[Features]CONTAMINANETDATABASEWeb based data-warehouse systemComplete, consistentand deducted dataacquisitionSystemic databasebased on hazard andfood code systemVersatile datasearching anddownloading systemCLIMATEDATABASEPast 13yrs. weatherdatabase in KoreaPrediction database byfuture scenario in KoreaSupport qualitative andquantitative climateobservation variables(16 factors)Special retrieval ofeventual variable(eg, typhoon)Food-climateCompositiondatabase[Features]21
  21. 21. PG-ⅣⅣⅣⅣPG-ⅢⅢⅢⅢPG-ⅡⅡⅡⅡPrediction & Impact Assessment on FoodSafety due to Climate Change2010 Project2010 Project『Impact Assessment on FoodSafety by Factor Analysis of ClimateChange』Identification of Direct& Indirect Impacts onFood Safety in Koreadue to Climate ChangeIntegrated ImpactAssessment on FoodSafety due to CC forAdaptationDevelopment of2012 Plan2012 Plan『Integrated Impact Assessment onFood Safety in Korea due to ClimateChange』20112011기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netParadigm of Strategic PlanDevelopmentMitigation → Adaptation↓Development ofAdaptation StrategiesDevelopment ofmodel- & Simulationbased Scenarios ofFood Safety in Koreadue to CCDevelopment ofImpact AssessmentFrame on Food Safetydue to Climate Change2011 Project2011 Project『Prediction & Impact Assessmenton Food Safety due to ClimateChange』22
  22. 22. 2 Area1 AreaSu-WonWon-juGang-NeungI-CheonPyeong-ChangPo-HangYang-Pyeong|||| Foodborne Pathogen monitoring on sample in each 3 area |||| Development of Predictive ModelInoculation : S. aureus etc.Humidity :40~80%Temp : 4~45℃Incubation024680 20 40 60 80 100Time (hr)logCFU/g80%RH70%RH60%RHGrowth curve|||| Microbiological Risk AssessmentMRA simulation modelAnalysis of Climate Change Impact onFoodborne Pathogens기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.net3 AreaDae-JeonBu-SanUl-SanMil-YangNam-WonSun-CheonSample : VegetablesMicroorganism : Total bacteria, Coliform, E. coliFoodborne pathogen : S. aureus, B. cereus, Salmonella spp.,L. monocytogenes, E. coli O157:H7ModifiedGompertzmodelY=N0+C*exp{{{{-exp((2.718*SGR/C)*(LT-X)+1)}}}}N0,loginitialnumberofcells-C:differencebetweeninitialandfinalcellnumbers-LT:delaybeforegrowth,sameunitsasX-SGR:maximumspecificgrowthrate-X:time/Y:logcellGR=0.37103+0.0282*T-2.278*RH+0.01157*T*RH-0.0003822*T2+1.6355*RH2LT=40.904-1.135*T-55.58*RH-0.1278*T*RH+0.01653*T2+44.94*RH2Development of Primary predictive modelDevelopment of Secondary predictive modelR2= 0.95112345671 2 3 4 5 6 7Observed LTPredictedLT)n)/log((observedpredicted10∑=µµfB)n|)/log(|(observedpredicted10∑=µµfAnAverageSEPdpredictiveobservedobserved∑ −=2)()(100%µµµValidation of secondary predictive model y=a*exp(b/(x+c))R2=0.9934Temperature (C)12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32Time(hr)05101520253035Predicted lineEstimated values95% Prediction Bandy = 1.5509*exp(36.6583/(x+0.1213))y(hr): Time, x(℃): Current tempTime-temperature criterion23
  23. 23. Home Page|||| www.climate-food.net기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.net24
  24. 24. 기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단www.climate-food.netFood Safety Control Strategy
  25. 25. • An action (ignoring washing hands)– Carrier of pathogens; cause of consumer health problems in severalregions, even several countries• Factors affecting food safety– Origin: Imported foods and ingredients– Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder peopleFood Safety – Butterfly Effect기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단– Consumer: Increase of immigrant, elder people– Science: Organic product, minimally processed food, resistantmicroorganism, seasonal foodborne outbreak, weather change (El nino)• We cant always know what impact our day-to-day decisionswill have farther down the line, but we do know that a smallevent can have a big impact.26
  26. 26. • Climate change likely to affect pathogen types andspread as well as chemical use and inputs inagriculture• Fate and transport of contaminants in the environmentwill changeFood Safety Control against CC기후변화대응 식품안전관리 연구사업단• Highly complex problem – some changes could reducerisks other might increase the risks• Need to take a whole system approach27