I developed a power point presentation on Climate Change hazards in Pakistan with some basic concepts, hazards facing with its impacts and future suggestions. Also linked it with global thoughts and suggestions relevant to my country showing that what steps could be taking to minimize CC impacts. It can be accessed on www.saimaabbasi.net. Target audience is mass including students at school, university and general public ( Private and government offices). Presentation is made in response to final project Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided online course conducted by World Bank Group.

1. 11
What is Climate Change, DefinitionsWhat is Climate Change, Definitions
Suggestions and linking it to ClimateSuggestions and linking it to Climate
Change Vulnerability inChange Vulnerability in
PakistanPakistan
Saima AbbasiSaima Abbasi
KPK PakistanKPK Pakistan
www.saimaabbasi.netwww.saimaabbasi.net
A final project presentation for
Turn Down the Heat online Course conducted
by World Bank
From 20th
April - To 20th
May 2015
https://class.coursera.org/warmerworld-
002/wiki/Homepage

15. 1515
Climate Change: SomeClimate Change: Some
DefinitionsDefinitions
Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a
given time and place, with respect
to the variables such as temperature,
moisture, pressure etc.
Climate: Average weather. Statistical description
of mean weather conditions over a
period of several years, typically 2-3
decades.
Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural
variability, attributable to human
activity.
060212/0051

17. 1717
343 W/m2
30%

18. Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect
 The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role inThe Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in
maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;
 If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the averageIf there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average
temperature of the Earth would have beentemperature of the Earth would have been -18-18oo
CC
(253°K) instead of the present(253°K) instead of the present 1515oo
CC;;
 Human activity is enhancing the natural GreenhouseHuman activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse
Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane,Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;
 It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which isIt is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is
causing Global Warming and Climate Change.causing Global Warming and Climate Change.

19. Natural Climate
Variability
Anthropogenic Influences since
the Industrial revolution
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its
Uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Increase in Frequency &
Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
IMPACTS
Uncertainty in Water
Availability
Decrease in Crop
Yields
Newer perspective for sources
of energy
Loss of Biodiversity
Increased
Health Risks
Spiraling
Population
High pace of
Industrialization
Increasing use of
Fossil Fuels in
Industry &
Transport
Deforestation for
Agriculture and
Urbanization
Climate Change
Natural + Anthropogenic

20. Global ResponseGlobal Response
• Climate Change is being addressed by severalClimate Change is being addressed by several
national research programs in allnational research programs in all developeddeveloped
countriescountries::
• A number ofA number of developing countriesdeveloping countries are also activelyare also actively
pursuing climate change research, e.g.pursuing climate change research, e.g.
• In South Asia region, India has some 20 establishmentsIn South Asia region, India has some 20 establishments
and Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engagedand Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engaged
in CC research;in CC research;
• China has a large number of establishments engaged inChina has a large number of establishments engaged in
CC research.CC research.

21. 2121
 2001:2001: Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for ClimateEstablishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for Climate
Change research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, SpecialChange research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special
Advisor to the Prime Minister;Advisor to the Prime Minister;
 May 2002:May 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc &established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc &
Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.
 January 2005:January 2005: Prime Minister’s Committee on ClimatePrime Minister’s Committee on Climate
Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.
 Dec., 2006Dec., 2006 :: GCISC attached to National Centre for PhysicsGCISC attached to National Centre for Physics
as an autonomous organization.as an autonomous organization.
 Oct., 2008:Oct., 2008: Planning Commission established a Task ForcePlanning Commission established a Task Force
on Climate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.on Climate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.
Climate Change Science Studies
in Pakistan

22. Pakistan, like other countries in South Asia, isPakistan, like other countries in South Asia, is
most vulnerable to Climate Change, because :most vulnerable to Climate Change, because :
• A large part of its economy is based on agricultureA large part of its economy is based on agriculture
which is climate sensitive;which is climate sensitive;
• It has low technological and scientific base andIt has low technological and scientific base and
have limited access to knowledge;have limited access to knowledge;
• It has low capacity to adapt to changes resultingIt has low capacity to adapt to changes resulting
from CC;from CC;
• It lacks financial and institutional capacity.It lacks financial and institutional capacity.
Vulnerability of PakistanVulnerability of Pakistan

23. Challenges of Climate ChangeChallenges of Climate Change
 Water ChallengeWater Challenge
 Food Security challengeFood Security challenge
 Climate Extreme Events HazardsClimate Extreme Events Hazards
 Impacts on other EcosystemsImpacts on other Ecosystems

24. VVulnerability of Water Resources toulnerability of Water Resources to
Climate ChangeClimate Change
 Increased variability of Monsoon
 More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers
threatening IRS Flows
 Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture,
water for industrial and domestic sectors.
 Increased risks of floods and droughts

25. Melting of Glaciers in PakistanMelting of Glaciers in Pakistan
 Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total waterGlaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water
storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAFstorage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF
 Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60%Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60%
to the flows from UIB.to the flows from UIB.
 International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “
(1999(1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part
of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of themof the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them
disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.

World Bank (2006World Bank (2006):):
Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causingWestern Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing
increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty,increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty,
resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequentresulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent
fifty years.fifty years.

26. Projected Changes in Hindu Kush HimalayaProjected Changes in Hindu Kush Himalaya
GlaciersGlaciers
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 (2007):Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 (2007):
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within nextGlacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next
two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as thetwo to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the
glaciers recede.glaciers recede.
Hewitt (2005):Hewitt (2005):
reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in thereported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the
Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountainCentral Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain
glaciers.glaciers.
These conflicting findings make the impact of climate changeThese conflicting findings make the impact of climate change
on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

27. 2727
1989-10-09 2000-10-31

28. 2828
1992-10-15 2000-10-29060212/0029

29. GLOFS in PakistanGLOFS in Pakistan
 As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behindAs glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind
moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breachmoraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach
anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lakeanytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake
Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:
 property,property,
 farms,farms,
 socio-economic infrastructuresocio-economic infrastructure
 and livelihood of mountain peopleand livelihood of mountain people
 and downstream communities.and downstream communities.
2929

30. 3030

31. 3131

32. 3232

33. GLOF-induced damages at Chut Ghusth, GhulkinGLOF-induced damages at Chut Ghusth, Ghulkin
3333
Web Source: http://pamirtimes.net/2008/06/page/3/

34. 3434
3d view of Main Biafo Glacier (Shigar River Basin) with overlaid digitized boundary of the glacier
showing the changes in the main glacier stream.
Temporal Change Detection In Biafo Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan.
Landsat
image;Resolutio
n 30m

35. 3535
Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC
Hunza River Basin

36. 3636
Retreat of the Helheim Glacier Greenland
2005
2001
2003

37. 3737
 There is an urgent need toThere is an urgent need to
 Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future waterAssess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water
resources and storage requirements inresources and storage requirements in
the wake of climate change threatthe wake of climate change threat
 Take appropriate ameliorative measuresTake appropriate ameliorative measures
well in time to avoid calamites.well in time to avoid calamites.
The Water Challenge:
Conclusion

38. Food Security ChallengeFood Security Challenge

39. Agriculture Systems in PakistanAgriculture Systems in Pakistan
 Irrigated AgricultureIrrigated Agriculture
Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% toConsumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to
national productionnational production
 Rained and Dryland AgricultureRained and Dryland Agriculture
Contributes <30% to national production.Contributes <30% to national production.

40. Vulnerability of Agriculture toVulnerability of Agriculture to
Climate ChangeClimate Change
 Irrigated areas:Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage dueVulnerable to irrigation water shortage due
to glacier melt in the wake of climate changeto glacier melt in the wake of climate change
 Semi-arid and Arid areas:Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes inVulnerable to changes in
quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
 Both of the irrigated and dry areas:Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerablevulnerable
to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, coldto climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold
waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etcwaves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

41. Impacts of Climate Change on CropsImpacts of Climate Change on Crops
 Shortening of growing season lengthShortening of growing season length
 Loss in yieldLoss in yield
 Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,
e.g. flowering, grain initiation stagese.g. flowering, grain initiation stages
 Increased pest/disease incidenceIncreased pest/disease incidence
 Increased crop water requirementsIncreased crop water requirements

42. 2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Change (o
C)
WheatYield(kg/ha)
Northern
Mountainous
(Humid)
Northern Sub-
Mountainous
(Sub-humid)
Southern Plains
(Semi arid)
Southern Plains
(Arid)
Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in differentEffect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different
agro-climatic zones of Pakistanagro-climatic zones of Pakistan

43.  Flash floods,Flash floods,
 Droughts,Droughts,
 Heavy precipitation events,Heavy precipitation events,
 Hailstorms,Hailstorms,
 Dust storms,Dust storms,
 Cyclones,Cyclones,
 Heat /Cold wavesHeat /Cold waves
Climate Extreme EventsClimate Extreme Events

44. Climate Extreme Events in PakistanClimate Extreme Events in Pakistan
20092009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm atKarachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at
Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mmAirport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm
occurred in 1977occurred in 1977
20072007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperatureRecord heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature
of 48 C was recorded on 9of 48 C was recorded on 9thth
June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated afterJune, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after
78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 878 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8thth
June, 1929June, 1929
20072007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1
developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makrandeveloped in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran
coast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least duringcoast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during thethe
previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a monthprevious century finds no such events occurring twice in a month
20062006 In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185
deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboringdeaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboring
eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimedeastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed atat
least 35 lives (Associated Press)least 35 lives (Associated Press)
20052005 Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan inHeavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in
March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. ThereMarch. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There
were more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistanwere more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan

45. Recent Climate Extremes in PakistanRecent Climate Extremes in Pakistan
20052005 During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainousDuring June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous
areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and broughtareas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought
extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral riversextensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral rivers
20052005 Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as KashmirHeavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir
region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486 peoplepeople
during second week of Februaryduring second week of February
20042004 Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir regionUnusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region
alongalong the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Somethe border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some
20,00020,000 nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.
20032003 Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid FebruaryHeavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February waswas
responsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flashresponsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flash
flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.
20032003 At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rainsAt least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains
in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153 fatalitiesfatalities
in the Sindh provincein the Sindh province

46. 20032003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reachedDuring early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached
52°C at Jacobabad on the 552°C at Jacobabad on the 5thth
; normal highs in early June are near; normal highs in early June are near
44°C44°C
20012001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July
1999-20011999-2001 History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts ofHistory’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of
surrounding countriessurrounding countries
Continued:Continued:

47. Buffaloes on Roof TopBuffaloes on Roof Top
(once a joke, now a reality)(once a joke, now a reality)

48. Urban Flooding in Lai NullahUrban Flooding in Lai Nullah
( 23rd July 2001)( 23rd July 2001)

49. Flood Stranded People on the HighwayFlood Stranded People on the Highway

50. Rescuing the drowning fellowsRescuing the drowning fellows

51. Impacts on other EcosystemsImpacts on other Ecosystems

53. Land Degradation in PakistanLand Degradation in Pakistan
 Water ErosionWater Erosion : 17%: 17%
 Wind ErosionWind Erosion : 8%: 8%
 Salinity and SodicitySalinity and Sodicity : 9%: 9%
 WaterloggingWaterlogging : 5%: 5%
 Low organic matterLow organic matter (<1%)(<1%) : 96%: 96%

54. Impacts on Land degradationImpacts on Land degradation
Land degradation enhanced by climateLand degradation enhanced by climate
change due tochange due to
 Wind and water erosion, as a result of lowWind and water erosion, as a result of low
and high rainfalland high rainfall
 Water-logging and Salinity, as a result ofWater-logging and Salinity, as a result of
greater evaporation from land surface.greater evaporation from land surface.

55. Vulnerability of Mountain RegionVulnerability of Mountain Region
 Enhanced de-glaciationEnhanced de-glaciation
 Loss of biodiversityLoss of biodiversity
 Overall increasing trend in rainfall leadingOverall increasing trend in rainfall leading
to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides,to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides,
sedimentation load downstreamsedimentation load downstream
 Positive impact on yield of wheatPositive impact on yield of wheat
 Prospects of two crops a yearProspects of two crops a year

56. Coastal ZonesCoastal Zones
 Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to MangroveInundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove
forests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish andforests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish and
infrastructureinfrastructure
 Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta willUpstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will
pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water andpose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and
livelihood of dependant communities, thousands oflivelihood of dependant communities, thousands of
hectares of fertile soil will become salinehectares of fertile soil will become saline
 Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuries
beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the
global ocean system.

57. Coping with the Climate ChangeCoping with the Climate Change
 Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts ofAssessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of
vulnerable areas and communitiesvulnerable areas and communities
 Preparedness for disaster and risk managementPreparedness for disaster and risk management
 Development of early warning systemDevelopment of early warning system
 Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-
structural changesstructural changes
 Developing new and innovative farm production practices,Developing new and innovative farm production practices,
including new crop varieties and irrigation techniquesincluding new crop varieties and irrigation techniques
 Empowering communities and local stakeholders for theirEmpowering communities and local stakeholders for their
active participation in vulnerability assessment andactive participation in vulnerability assessment and
implementation of adaptationimplementation of adaptation
 Mainstreaming climate change into development planning atMainstreaming climate change into development planning at
all scales, levels and sectorsall scales, levels and sectors

58. 5858
 Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches,Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches,
Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.
 Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors ofClimate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of
Pakistan’s economy.Pakistan’s economy.
 Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation ofRealistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of
appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.
 Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and developmentPreparedness for disaster/ risk management and development
of early warning system will contribute to safeguarding theof early warning system will contribute to safeguarding the
vulnerable communities/sectors.vulnerable communities/sectors.
ConclusionsConclusions

59. Some globalSome global
thoughts andthoughts and
suggestionssuggestions

74.  www.gcisc.org.pk/www.gcisc.org.pk/
 https://class.coursera.org/warmerworld-002/wiki/Homepagehttps://class.coursera.org/warmerworld-002/wiki/Homepage
 www.energy.gov/applianceselectronics.htmwww.energy.gov/applianceselectronics.htm
 www.worldviewofglbalwarming.orgwww.worldviewofglbalwarming.org
 http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/
 www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/
 www.epa.gov/climatechange/www.epa.gov/climatechange/
 www.climatehotmap.org/www.climatehotmap.org/
 www.stopgloblawarming.orgwww.stopgloblawarming.org
 http://globalwarming.net/http://globalwarming.net/
 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.htmlwww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
 www.noaa.gov/www.noaa.gov/
 parmescan,C.,1996 Climate and species range.Nature 382,765-766parmescan,C.,1996 Climate and species range.Nature 382,765-766
 Primack,D.,et al 2004.herbarium specimens demonstrate earlier flowing timesPrimack,D.,et al 2004.herbarium specimens demonstrate earlier flowing times
in response to warming in Boston, America Journal of Botnay, 91,1260-1264in response to warming in Boston, America Journal of Botnay, 91,1260-1264
 Thomas,C.D. and Lennon, JJ., 1999.Birds extend their ranges northwards.Thomas,C.D. and Lennon, JJ., 1999.Birds extend their ranges northwards.
Nature 399:213.Nature 399:213.