0
The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the
                   Brazilian Amazon




                Elizabeth ...
Million hectares
  Brazil’s territory                  ~ 850

  Potential farmland                     320

  Cultivated l...
Deforestation in the Amazon


                   Agriculture
                   Agriculture

Roads
Roads
                 ...
International debate
   Deforestation is related to growth of the cattle industry

Cattle, not soy, drives Amazon defores...
Is soybean or pasture expansion the key driver of
     deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?

• Agricultural expansion
  ...
Agricultural Expansion
SOYBEAN
Main countries importing soybean products from Brazil




                                            Source: FAOS...
SOYBEAN
                       Area under cultivation in Brazil in 2006




                                              ...
Livestock production


         Animal                            Total animal units                              Percenta...
PASTURE




Crop and pasture distribution- 2006
        in Legal Amazon
Large-scale forest conversion for cattle ranching along the
                    arc of deforestation
Data Source
Data Processing
                  Compiling census data on
                  land use for 2000-2006:

                  - ...
Developing consistent administrative boundaries
Estimated pasture area (from IBGE Livestock data):


 1- Total Livestock unit
                           L ,t ∑i ,k A i )
...
Spatial and Statistical
       Analysis
Statistical relationship between change in deforested area and change in
     agricultural area
Outliers
MATO GROSSO




                                             Deforestation
Deforestation




                Pasture chang...
PARA
Deforestation




                                          Deforestation
                Pasture change             ...
RONDONIA
Deforestation




                                             Deforestation
                Pasture change      ...
Mato Grosso




                Para




                                                         Pasture change
Deforesta...
Spatial Patterns: Changes in area of different land uses in the Legal Amazon

 Deforestation                        Pastur...
Movement of the centroid of land use type
Land-use transitions between 2000 and 2006
Main findings

   Consistent with other studies, soybean
    expansion is replacing pasture areas

   However, soybeans ...
CONCLUSION
   Need for more large-scale studies and more field-based research to
    test the land-use displacement hypot...
THANK YOU!
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Does growing soy destroy Amazon rainforest?

1,687

Published on

Elizabeth Baron's presentation at the 2010 annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers in Washington DC.

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,687
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
35
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Does growing soy destroy Amazon rainforest?"

  1. 1. The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon Elizabeth Barona – CIAT Glenn Hyman - CIAT Navin Ramankutty – McGill University. Oliver Coomes – McGill University AAG - Annual meeting 2010 Washington D.C..
  2. 2. Million hectares Brazil’s territory ~ 850 Potential farmland 320 Cultivated land – all 60 crops Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Brazil “the increasing role of large- scale agriculture and the vast remaining potential expansion of farming in Amazon is causing concern about deforestation and the loss of ecosystem goods and services “(Foley 2007; Fearnside 2005; Morton 2006).
  3. 3. Deforestation in the Amazon Agriculture Agriculture Roads Roads Cattle ranching Cattle ranching Logging Logging Fire
  4. 4. International debate  Deforestation is related to growth of the cattle industry Cattle, not soy, drives Amazon deforestation: News Report http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE53D65C20090414.  Deforestation is related to the expanding soybean sector Expansion of cropland (mainly soy) into areas previously covered by forest has become one of the main causes of deforestation in southern Brazilian Amazon. (Morton et. al 2006)  Soybean is expanding into land previously under pasture, and not causing new deforestation (Mueller, 2003; Brandao et.al 2005)
  5. 5. Is soybean or pasture expansion the key driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? • Agricultural expansion •Soybean versus Pasture • Data at municipality level for the entire Amazon for 2000-2006 • Census/Survey from IBGE • Estimated annual pasture (based on livestock data) • Deforestation from INPE •Relationship between agricultural expansion and deforestation •Spatial patterns, statistical relationship, and potential spatial shift in land use cover were analyzed over the period 2000-2006
  6. 6. Agricultural Expansion
  7. 7. SOYBEAN Main countries importing soybean products from Brazil Source: FAOSTAT 2006.
  8. 8. SOYBEAN Area under cultivation in Brazil in 2006 % harvested CROPS Total harvested area (Ha) area change 1990 1995 2000 2006 1990 to 2006 Soybean 11,487,303 11,675,005 13,656,771 22,047,349 93.46 Maize 11,394,307 13,946,320 11,890,376 12,613,094 10.79 Sugar Cane 4,272,602 4,559,062 4,804,511 6,144,286 16.57 Beans 4,680,094 5,006,403 4,332,545 4,034,383 -5.71 Rice 3,946,691 4,373,538 3,664,804 2,970,918 -8.64 Cassava 1,937,567 1,946,163 1,708,875 1,896,509 -0.36 Wheat 2,680,989 994,734 1,138,687 1,560,175 -9.92 Cotton 1,391,884 1,103,536 801,618 898,008 -4.37 Sorghum 137,758 153,961 528,061 722,200 5.17 Source: IBGE (2006).
  9. 9. Livestock production Animal Total animal units Percentage category 1990 1995 2000 2006 2006 Cattle 141,584,610 155,753,722 164,077,786 197,861,606 93.17% Horses 5,787,045 6,054,538 5,547,335 5,452,630 2.57% Buffalos 1,629,052 1,922,237 1,291,130 1,350,129 0.64% Donkeys 1,129,280 1,131,824 1,044,912 1,000,488 0.47% Mules 1,866,668 1,819,162 1,217,851 1,253,296 0.59% Goats 2,325,782 2,207,304 1,808,175 2,018,878 0.95% Sheep 4,534,176 4,153,792 3,219,687 3,427,127 1.61% Total 158,856,614 173,042,578 178,206,876 212,364,154          
  10. 10. PASTURE Crop and pasture distribution- 2006 in Legal Amazon
  11. 11. Large-scale forest conversion for cattle ranching along the arc of deforestation
  12. 12. Data Source
  13. 13. Data Processing Compiling census data on land use for 2000-2006: - Total harvested Area (IBGE/SIDRA database) - Estimated pastures (IBGE Livestock data) Deforestation INPE (The National Institute for space research in Brazil) / PRODES (Amazon Deforestation Project): Annual deforested areas based on LANDSAT Images
  14. 14. Developing consistent administrative boundaries
  15. 15. Estimated pasture area (from IBGE Livestock data): 1- Total Livestock unit L ,t ∑i ,k A i ) T i )= N,t ) fU(,k U( ( k 2- Livestock stocking density and linear interpolation S( = i / i, = 2 L i) T( ) ( )t 1 ,0 Dt L , P , Ut , t 9 0 9 6 6 S i2 −Di1 L (,0 ) L (,9 ) D 0 6 S 9 6 S it =Di1 + L (, ) L (,9 ) D S 9 6 ( 1 ) t=0 ,0 . 2 t−6 , 9 9 2 2 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 1, , 6 (0 −6 ) 20 1 6 99 3- Estimated area under pasture for 2000-2006 T i) L ,t U( P(,t es t i )= , t=0 ,0 ,. 2 2 2 ., 0 0 0 . 0 0 1 6 L (,t S i) D
  16. 16. Spatial and Statistical Analysis
  17. 17. Statistical relationship between change in deforested area and change in agricultural area Outliers
  18. 18. MATO GROSSO Deforestation Deforestation Pasture change Soybean change Pasture change Soybean change
  19. 19. PARA Deforestation Deforestation Pasture change Soybean change Pasture change Soybean change
  20. 20. RONDONIA Deforestation Deforestation Pasture change Soybean change Pasture change Soybean change
  21. 21. Mato Grosso Para Pasture change Deforestation Rondonia Pasture change soybean change soybean change
  22. 22. Spatial Patterns: Changes in area of different land uses in the Legal Amazon Deforestation Pasture Total harvested crops area Soybean
  23. 23. Movement of the centroid of land use type
  24. 24. Land-use transitions between 2000 and 2006
  25. 25. Main findings  Consistent with other studies, soybean expansion is replacing pasture areas  However, soybeans may have displaced pasture further north into the forest areas, causing indirect deforestation there.  Even if the proximate cause of deforestation were mainly ranching, it is likely that soy cultivation is a major underlying cause
  26. 26. CONCLUSION  Need for more large-scale studies and more field-based research to test the land-use displacement hypothesis.  Policy makers face important tradeoffs to satisfy the demands of the cattle and soybean industries vs conservation interests: policies that benefit one group, will likely work to the detriment of the others.  The dynamics of land-use changes are complex, and simple- minded policies to curb deforestation, without a full understanding of the underlying dynamics, will not work
  27. 27. THANK YOU!
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×