Heitor Coutinho


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Heitor Coutinho

  1. 1. Integrated Sustainability Assessment Tools “The Brazilian Experience with SENSOR” Heitor L. C. Coutinho (heitor@cnps.embrapa.br) II Workshop AISE São Carlos, 13 de abril de 2010 EESC-USP
  2. 2. •SENSOR (EU-FP6): Sustainability Impact Assessment: Tools for environmental, social and economic effects of multifunctional land use in European Regions Coordinator: Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Münchberg,Germany Participants: 33 Institutions from 15 European countries Project duration: Dec 2004 – Nov 2008 Project demanded by the EC to support SIA of EU policies (Bioenergy; The Common Agricultural Policy reform; biodiversity policies; the forest strategy; and European transportation policy). Objective Deliver ex-ante Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT) to support decision making on policies related to multifunctional land use in Europe
  3. 3. Project SENSOR Mercosur •Baseline project: IAI-CRN II (2006-2010) “Land use change in the Rio de la Plata Basin: Linking biophysical and human factors to predict trends, assess impacts, and support viable land-use strategies for the future” History: Oct 2005 – visit to ZALF; March 2006 – invitation to join SENSOR – proposal submitted to FP6-TTC (international cooperation to adapt the European approach to extra European conditions in Targeted Third Countries). Sensor TTC partners: Embrapa and UFSC (Brazil); UBA (Argentina); UDELAR (Uruguay); IGNSRR and CASS (China)
  4. 4. Project SENSOR Mercosur •Objectives •Test and critical review of the feasibility of transferability of SIAT from Europe to extra European regions •Review on land use related policies •Test of the SIAT developed in SENSOR in TTC •Development of a comprehensive scientific data management infrastructure and an adapted indicator framework •Identification of key issues of sustainability in sensitive areas in selected regions in TTC and identification of so called “hot-spots” of environmental degradation •Stakeholder participation and institutional analysis in TTC •Identification of driving forces in TTC •End-user identification •Definition of sustainability thresholds and sustainability choice spaces in the context of the TTC countries
  5. 5. Project SENSOR – Conceptual framework • Socio economic drivers (demographic change, Driver world economic growth, world oil price, etc.) • Policy cases • Land use change (priority 1: Policy – Land use change – Sustainability) Pressure • Direct effect of impact issues (priority 2: Policy – Sustainability) • Bio-geophysical conditions State • Socio-economic conditions • Impact issues Impact • „impact identification“ and „impact valuation“ • Relation to landscape function; • Up to decision maker Response Land Use Policies • Not requested from SENSOR
  6. 6. Project SENSOR Mercosur •Policy Cases •Sugarcane Expansion in Mato Grosso do Sul State Sugarcane land occupancy in Sugarcane ethanol plants in Central Brazil (2007/2008) Central Brazil http://www.dsr.inpe.br/mapds Martorano et al., 2008 r/index.jsp
  7. 7. Project SENSOR Mercosur •Policy Cases •Sugarcane Expansion in Mato Grosso do Sul State Evolution of sugarcane land 2003-2004 occupancy in South Brazil 2007-2008 http://www.dsr.inpe.br/mapd Martorano et al., 2008 sr/index.jsp
  8. 8. Project SENSOR Mercosur •Policy Cases •Afforestation in the South of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay Jobaggy et al., 2006
  9. 9. Project SENSOR Mercosur •Policy Cases •Afforestation in the South of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay Período Cultivos Pastizales Bosques y Cuerpos de Miscelán foresta agua eas ciones 1985/1990º ha 4934865 15132028 1503388 738457 129463 % 21.99 67.44 6.70 3.29 0.58 2000/2004º ha 5805757 13781790 1940254 867546 41574 % 25.88 61.42 8.65 3.87 0.19 ∆relativo % 17.65 -8.92 29.06 17.48 -67.89 Baldi, 2006
  10. 10. Brazilian Policies related with sugarcane expansion •The Brazilian Agribusiness Policy Guidelines - 2006/2011 - Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA) •twenty-five per cent (25%) of the mandatory amount of anhydrous ethyl alcohol added to gasoline - CIMA (Conselho Interministerial do Açúcar e do Álcool ) •The Brazilian Agroenergy Plan - 2006/2011 •Sugarcane Agroecologic Zoning (ZAE CANA) •Decadal Energy Plan (Plano Decenal de Energia – PDE) - Ministry of Mines and Energy •Developed by the Energy Research Company (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE) - energy supply and demand forecast •Growth Acceleration Plan (PAC) •Investment on logistics, energy and social/urban development
  11. 11. Policy Scenario - Sugarcane expansion Área nova projetada MS ( ha) Área total projetada MS (mil ha) Área projetada Brasil (mil ha) 8.970 8.431 7.898 7.341 6.765 6.078 5.431 4.849 4.387 3.756 2.965 2.095 2.503 1.416 1.732 908 1.143 346 519 702 186 160 172 183 206 234 274 316 363 408 462 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  12. 12. Sugarcane Agroecologic Zoning (ZAE CANA) •Based on biophysical conditionants and legal restrictions We know how much land we need, and where it is legally and biophysically suitable to produce sugarcane. So, where will land use change take place?
  13. 13. •Policy response – Land Use Change Model •Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, Verburg et al., 2002, 2007) •Simulates the spatial allocation of land use changes •Uses empirical relationships between land use classes and LUC driving forces in a dynamic modeling process •land demand at a regional level (non-spatial component) •knowledge rules and logistic regression to estimate allocation at a local level •Land use class x driving forces variables Estimator of land use change distance to river Low suitability zone; distance to ethanol plant Intermediate suitability zone; distance to municipality core High suitability zone distance to road
  14. 14. Land use in 2008, Mato Grosso do Sul state CLUE-S land use simulation for 2018 Ellipses denote hotspot sugarcane growth areas
  15. 15. Spatial Regional Reference Framework 1st level: World datasets Administrative Regions Biophysical: Socio-economics: Brazil => micro-regions • Land use • GDP Argentina => departamentos • Elevation • Population • Temperature • Roads Uruguay => unidades censales • Soils • Ecological zones Create grids for all these datasets aggregate regions.
  16. 16. Spatial Regional Reference Framework Turetta et al., 2010
  17. 17. Selected Impact Issues for Mercosur Sustainability Impact Indicators Criteria: •policy relevance •analytical soundness •Measurability •availability (spatial & temporal) •simple, concise and easy to interpret •Operability
  18. 18. Selected Indicators, data sources and availability INDICATOR SOURCE COVERAGE YEAR IBGE[1] – Indicators of Sustainable Consumption of pesticides Brazilian States 2000, 2005 Development Access to water supply system IBGE – Demographic Census Municipality 2000 Gini Index for the distribution of Atlas of Human Development - PNUD Municipality 1991, 2000 income Occupied Persons IBGE - Central Company Register Municipality 1996 - 2006 IBGE – Demographic Census GDP per capita IBGE – Gross Domestic Product of Municipalities Municipality 2000 - 2006 IBGE – Population Estimate Ministry of Development, Industry and Balance of Trade Municipality 2000 - 2006 Foreign Trade, Secex [1] IBGE – Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.
  19. 19. •SIAT (Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool) •a meta-modelling system •Requirements of the tool: •Set of policy options •Quick SIA response •Transparency of indicator processing methods •Effectiveness of indicator results
  20. 20. SIAT Sugarcane MS
  21. 21. SIAT Sugarcane MS
  22. 22. SIAT Sugarcane MS
  23. 23. •Lessons learned •Limitations of approach •Lack of a reliable SI indicator set (time-series) •Weakness of available modelling frameworks (too specific) • Need to develop and apply effective SIA participatory approaches FoPIA - Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (Morris et al., 2008) •A stand alone, participation-based framework of sequenced methods for involving national, regional and local stakeholders in assessments of land use policy impacts •Participatory SIA can plug some of the gaps caused by limited data availability / modelling capacity
  24. 24. FoPIA - Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment Morris & Tassone, 2008
  25. 25. •Future developments •Apply FoPIA •Apply the Sensor approach to a larger spatial scale •Develop knowledge rules for SI indicators •Develop a broader set of SI indicators •Apply the LUF approach
  26. 26. Thank You! (heitor@cnps.embrapa.br)