Corporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market access
1. A spatial assessment of livestock
production and market access
Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt
“Taking Stock of the Economics of the Livestock Sector in Ethiopia”
November 4, 2011
2. Overview
• Livestock production and markets vary substantially across space
in Ethiopia
– Topographic variations, market access, population dynamics
• This study links smallholder livestock production data and
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data
– Agricultural Census (2001/02)
– Annual CSA agricultural sample survey
– GIS data: landcover, city population and road networks
• Pairing these data, focusing on cattle and shoat production, we
assess:
– Livestock production, growth and density over time
– Changes in livestock production and market access (2000-2008)
– Grazing land pressure from (2000-2008)
3. Livestock production in Ethiopia
• Livestock production in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the
highland regions producing the largest share of cattle and
shoat.
• Between 2005 and 2008, livestock production (in terms of
cattle, sheep, and goat) in Ethiopia grew at 22 percent
(AgSS, CSA)
• Overall, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87
percent of cattle in 2007/08, with each region contributing
44, 24, and 20 percent respectively to total cattle production.
• This trend is similar for previous years of livestock
production, whereby Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions
combined produced 81 and 80 percent of total livestock in
2005/06 and 2006/07
5. Cattle and Shoat Production
(2000 – 2008)
• Cattle and shoat production has increased over the
last decade
• Increase in cattle production seems to be spatially
uniform
– Cattle production in Afar is becoming more concentrated
in the western area of the region
• Increase in shoat production seems to be spreading
significantly in the highlands as well as increasing in
less accessible areas
– More shoat are being produced in southern areas of
Oromia and SNNPR, as well as woredas near Dire Dawa
and Harer
6.
7. Note: 2007 Woreda shares are estimated using the Agricultural Census 2001/2002
8.
9. Note: 2007 Woreda shares are estimated using the Agricultural Census 2001/2002
10. Herd composition: Ethiopia
• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the shoat
population is increasing compared to cattle production in all
regions.
• In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than
shoats with the exception of eastern regions of
Afar, Somali, and Dire Dawa
• By 2007/08, shoat production dominated in Tigray and
Amhara, while in Oromiya region shoat to cattle ratio grew
from 0.74 in 2005/06 to 0.80 in 2007/08.
12. Ratio of Shoat to Cattle in East African
Countries 1990-2009
9
8
7
6
5 Ethiopia
4 Kenya
3 Somalia
2
1
0
1990 2000 2005 2009
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
13. Market Access and Livestock Production
• Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets
has improved considerably between 2000 and 2008.
• Data suggest that cattle production is higher within 5 hours of
a major livestock market.
• Shoat production is also closer to livestock markets, but not as
dependent to accessibility as cattle production.
• In 2000/01, although many transportation linkages were not
fully developed, 70 percent of cattle production in Tigray was
within 5 hours travel time to a livestock market, and more
than half of cattle production occurred within this travel time
in Amhara, Oromiya, and SNNPR
14.
15.
16.
17.
18. Percent of Cattle Production
within 5 hours of a livestock market
100
81 78
80 77 73
70
64 63
57
60
2001
40 2007
28
20
20 13 16 10 16
-
19. Percent of Shoat Production
within 5 hours of a livestock market
100
83
80 76
66 65 66
62
60
44 43
40 2001
20 15 2007
10 10 7 8
4
-
20. Livestock production and grazing pressure
• Pressure on grazing land is increasing due to greater human
population density, larger herd sizes and relatively fixed
grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and Nega
2000)
• A comprehensive study of landcover has not been completed
since the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning
Project (WBISPP) in 2000
– FAO in collaboration with the Central Statistical Agency of
Ethiopia (CSA) is currently analyzing satellite data on
landcover change
• In order to provide an approximate measure of livestock
density per square kilometer of grazing land, we have paired
the landcover data produced by the WBISPP in 2000 with the
estimated woreda livestock production figures from 2000
through 2007
21.
22.
23. East Africa: Tropical livestock unit
per sq. km of land (thousands)
Total TLU per
Country Cattle Shoat TLU km2 km2
Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30
Djibouti 289 1,223 325 22 15
Eritrea 1,784 6,309 1,880 118 16
Kenya 10,183 20,743 9,202 546 17
Somalia 5,452 45,026 8,319 633 13
Uganda 11,518 8245 8,887 200 44
Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010)
24. Conclusions
• Livestock production in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the
highland regions producing the largest share
• Overall, Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent
of cattle in 2007/08
• Shoat production is also highest in Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP
regions, although more drought prone regions such as Afar, Tigray
and Somali rely more heavily on shoat production
– Between 2004/05 and 2007/08 both sheep and goat production doubled in
Somali region
• Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occuring in the
highland regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market
• Production seems to follow improved road infrastructure:
• Southern Oromia , West SNNPR, West Afar
25. Conclusions (2)
• Data comparing herd composition suggest that
the shoat population is increasing compared to
cattle production
• Compared to other countries in eastern Africa,
data suggest a similar trend, although the
difference in magnitudes of such ratios in
Somalia (4.82), Kenya (1.90) and Ethiopia (0.94)
are clear
26. Conclusions (3)
• Cattle production is higher within 5 hours of a major
livestock market.
– In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle production in the
four major highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel
time of a market
• Shoat production seems less dependent on accessibility
yet a majority of production (more than 66 percent) in
Oromiya, Amhara, Tigray, and SNNPR occurs within 5
hours travel time to a market
• This trend is also seen in earlier years where
transportation infrastructure was less expanded.
– In 2000/01, although many transportation linkages were not
fully developed, 70 percent of cattle production in Tigray was
within 5 hours travel time to a livestock market, and more
than half of cattle production occurred within 5 hours in
Amhara, Oromiya, and SNNPR
27. Conclusions (4)
• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing due
greater population density, larger herd sizes and
relatively fixed grazing land resources
• Ethiopia has the largest land area, and the second
highest livestock density in comparison to
countries in East Africa (in terms of cattle and
shoat)
• Analysis suggests that further research on
landcover change and livestock growth in the
highlands is necessary in order to understand
pasture land / environmental viability in coming
years
