Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security

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Hohenheim
GeWiSoLa, Oct 1, 2003

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Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security

  1. 1. Land Use, other Natural Resources Uses, and Food Security Joachim von Braun, IFPRI Hohenheim GeWiSoLa, Oct 1, 2003 October 1, 2003 1
  2. 2. Some Big Pictures on Agriculture and Food  Extent of Agriculture  Consumption  Value October 1, 2003 2
  3. 3. Extent of Global Agriculture (Source: IFPRI reinterpretation of USGS EPC 1998.99) October 1, 2003 3
  4. 4. Spatial Distribution of Calorie Consumption (Calories/km2) (Source: IFPRI calculation based on FAOSTAT 2003; CESIN 2000) October 1, 2003 4
  5. 5. Value of Agricultural Crops, 1995-1997 (Source: IFPRI calculation based on FAOSTAT 1999) October 1, 2003 5
  6. 6. Number of food-insecure people, 1970, 1999, and 2015 (trend) Millions 1200 East & Southeast Asia South Asia 959 Sub-Saharan Africa 1000 Latin America West Asia & North Africa 799 800 610 600 400 200 0 1970 1999 2015 Source: FAO (2000a, 2002); Bruinsma(2003). October 1, 2003 6
  7. 7. Questions:  What roles do land and natural resource use play for food security?  What roles for land and resource related policies and institutions in shaping food security?  What emerging food security risks related to land and natural resource use? October 1, 2003 7
  8. 8. Overview of Lecture 1. Conceptual issues 2. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use 3. Selected Risks in the World Food Systems: Scenarios 4. Responses with Policy and Research October 1, 2003 8
  9. 9. Conceptual Issue 1: Linkages It does not make sense to focus on land use/ food security-links in isolation, because of  Resource linkages (e.g. land and water use; land use and bio-diversity)  Factor (market) linkages (e.g. land and labor)  Substitutions (e.g. land and technology) October 1, 2003 9
  10. 10. Conceptual issue 2: Access and Availability Land and other natural resource availability, distribution, and uses do impact on food security via …  Access to resources and thereby to food at household levels (in developing countries)  Availability of food quantities globally (and locally in developing countries) October 1, 2003 10
  11. 11. Conceptual Issue 3: Is degradation always “bad”? There is no necessary causal relationship between poverty and natural resource degradation (and visa versa):  Downward spiral? (poverty-degradation- poverty…?) or  Substitution of assets for development? (depleting natural resources for investment in human capital, for instance) October 1, 2003 11
  12. 12. Conceptual Issue 4: Exit Strategies  High population growth with low returns to capital (“poverty trap”) What to do?  Increase return to some capital (nature or/and other)  Reduce pop. growth (girls’ education, family planning)  Promote investments and savings (labor mobilization for soil and water conservation)  Incentives for institutional innovation October 1, 2003 12
  13. 13. Conceptual Issue 5: Trade-off versus synergy?  Policies for sustainable development  Endogenous intensification  Environmental Kuznets curves  Technology – driven intensification  Integrated conservation and development programs (Lee, Barrett. 2000) October 1, 2003 13
  14. 14. Overview of Lecture 1. Conceptual issues 2. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use 3. Selected Risks in the World Food Systems: Scenarios 4. Responses with Policy and Research October 1, 2003 14
  15. 15. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use A. Land and Natural Resources Use B. Production Systems and Structures C. Technology D. Trade and Markets October 1, 2003 15
  16. 16. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use A. Land and Natural Resources Use • Land scarcity • Declining soil fertility • Escalating competition over water • Lack of investment in genetic resource conservation and sustainable utilization October 1, 2003 16
  17. 17. Land Scarcity (source: WDI 2002) Arable land hectares Regions per capita rate of change 1979-81 1997-99 East Asia & Pacific 0.12 0.1 -17% Latin America & Carib. 0.32 0.27 -16% Middle East & N. Africa 0.29 0.2 -31% South Asia 0.23 0.16 -30% Sub-Saharan Africa 0.32 0.24 -25% October 1, 2003 17
  18. 18. Severity of Soil Degradation within PAGE Agricultural Extent(Source: GLASOD; Oldeman et al 1991-disputed) October 1, 2003 18
  19. 19. Taxonomy (Source: Lopez 1998) Type 1: Low but growing pop. density, limited integration with rest of economy, fragile nat. resource base (Sub-Saharan Africa) Type 2: High pop. density, few opportunities to integrate with overall economy, fragile nat. resource base (South Asia) Type 3: Moderate to high pop. density, high integration with national and international economy, fragile nat. resource base (Central Am., parts of East Asia) Type 4: Moderate to high pop density, high integration with national economy, stable natural resource base (most industrial countries) October 1, 2003 19
  20. 20. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use B. Production Systems and Structures • Growing land policy conflicts • Non-productive and non-sustainable smallholder systems October 1, 2003 20
  21. 21. Approximated world farm size distribution, late 1990s Farm size (hectares) % of all farms # of farms (millions) <1 73.20 334.00 1–2 11.70 53.30 2–5 8.90 40.30 5–50 5.30 24.60 >50 0.90 4.00 Total 100.00 456.10 [Sources: von Braun, 2003, Estimates based on FAO World Agricultural Census (1990) and Supplement to FAO World Agricultural Census (various years, 1990–97), and various country statistics.] October 1, 2003 21
  22. 22. Inequality of landownership (1980s) and average annual agricultural growth rate for selected countries, 1980–2000 Land Ginis and Agricultural Growth Rate, selected countries 6 Average Annual Agricultural Growth Rate 5 4 3 2 1 0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Gini Coeffecient of Land Inequality [Sources: Lipton (2001); IFAD (2002); Deininger and Squire (1998); October 1, 2003 WDI (2002); and Adams (2002)] 22
  23. 23. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use C. Technology • Unbalanced soil fertility management • Irrigation limits • Crop bio-technology ? • Growing role of info. Technology ? • Diminishing public investment in agriculture October 1, 2003 23
  24. 24. Application of Commercial (Inorganic) Fertilizer October 1, 2003 24
  25. 25. Area Equipped For Irrigation by Growing Zone Period (Source: Doell and Siebert 1999; FAO/IASA 1999) October 1, 2003 25
  26. 26. Public Agricultural Research Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1976-96: not sufficient to address risks 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.0 Percent 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 1971-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 (Source: P. Pardey and N. Beintema 2001.) October 1, 2003 26
  27. 27. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use D. Trade and Markets • WTO agriculture talks in disarray • Trade barriers between and within countries • Lack of infrastructure • Growth of the retail industry October 1, 2003 27
  28. 28. Overview of Lecture 1. Conceptual issues 2. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use 3. Selected Risks in the World Food Systems: Scenarios 4. Responses with Policy and Research October 1, 2003 28
  29. 29. Three World Food Scenarios What If … A. What if growth in agricultural production slows down in India and China?  China’s net cereal imports double from 48 mmt in baseline to 89 mmt  India shifts from self-sufficiency in baseline scenario to net importer of 30 mmt B. What if crop yields grow more slowly than in baseline?  Sharp increase in cereal prices: rice  46% and maize  34% relative to baseline C. What if water policies change, producing a water crisis? (Rosegrant et al, 2002) October 1, 2003 29
  30. 30. Annual cereal yield growth rate under different water scenarios 1982-1995 1995-2025 Business as Usual 1995-2025 Water Crisis 1995-2025 Sustainable Water Use 2.0 percent per year 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Developing Developed World countries countries October 1, 2003 30
  31. 31. International grain prices under different water scenarios 1995 2025 Business as Usual 2025 Water Crisis 2025 Sustainable Water Use 400 300 US$ per mt 200 100 0 Rice Wheat Maize October 1, 2003 31
  32. 32. Overview of Lecture 1. Conceptual issues 2. Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use 3. Selected Risks in the World Food Systems: Scenarios 4. Responses with Policy and Research October 1, 2003 32
  33. 33. Questions  What roles do land and natural resources play for food security?  What roles for land and resource related policies and institutions in shaping food security?  What emerging risks in land and natural resource use? October 1, 2003 33
  34. 34. 1. What roles do land and natural resources play for food security? Depends on time dimension, scale, context:  Long run  Global  Developing country context  Local context  Nature of food security problem October 1, 2003 34
  35. 35. 2. What roles for land and resource related policies and institutions in shaping food security? Essential - but different - at  Global  National  Local levels  Diversity of contexts (re: taxonomy) October 1, 2003 35
  36. 36. Specific Policies for Institutional Innovation and Reform  Decentralization and user groups for resource management?  Land reforms for equity (business approach)  Agricultural R&D- increased public sector funding and coordination.  Strengthening market institutions and coordination  Investing in infrastructure for mobility  Investing in human capital October 1, 2003 36
  37. 37. 3. What emerging risks in land and natural resource use? Fast and/or Slow Onset Disasters for Agriculture  Adverse resource management and technology interactions  Governance, power, and natural resource exploitation  Water / Health / Food interactions October 1, 2003 37
  38. 38. Elements of research agenda  Further exploring the linkages between agricultural systems, food security and natural resource degradation  Strengthening empirical basis to analyze and compare poverty research between agro- ecological zones  Agro-technology: poverty and natural resource impacts  The drivers of dynamics of institutional and organizational innovation October 1, 2003 38

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