2010 Mobile Influencers: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters, By TrendsSpotting

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"2010 Mobile Predictions" is the sixth report from the series "2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters". …

"2010 Mobile Predictions" is the sixth report from the series "2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters".
TrendsSpotting Market Research is now running its third annual prediction reports following major trends in six categories. We will be featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.
This year we are adopting a new “tweet style” format, easier for you to focus on, comprehend and forward.

More in: Technology , Business
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  • 1. More in this series > Social Media | Video | eMarketing | Technology | Consumer Trends
  • 2. TrendsSpotting Market Research is now running its third annual prediction reports following major trends in six categories. We will be featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year. This year we are adopting a new “tweet style” format, easier for you to focus on, comprehend and forward. More in this series > Social Media | Video | eMarketing | Technology | Consumer Trends
  • 3. Findings: Major trends in 2010 Mobile: Across many of these predictions, we have identified the following trends suggested to influence Mobile in 2010: #payment #commerce #metrics #Ad: SMS, display, search, premium #Apple #iPhone #Apps #Google #Android #GPS #location #AR #gaming #music #video
  • 4. Smartphone: Market Share and Devices @frost_sullivan FROST & SULLIVAN In 2010, nearly 1.3 billion mobile phones will ship globally, and 250 million of them will be smartphones. In the U.S., where smartphone growth is robust, virtually all phones sold will be smartphones within five years. Smartphone will continue to be the most vital computing/communication device people carry in 2010. Smartphones won't be the only computing devices we have or use. Smartphone displays will never be large enough or clear enough to use for hours of reading or video viewing.. Source: Computerworld
  • 5. On Android @frost_sullivan FROST & SULLIVAN The Android operating system is expected to ship globally - 8.2 million in 2010. The total number of Android devices to be introduced in 2010 (will grow) to 36. Android could start to dominate the smartphone OS market by 2014. Android could be the 3rd most popular OS, shipping on 65 million phones. That would put it behind Symbian OS projected to ship on 233 million phones that year, and RIM which will be on 92 million phones. Source: Computerworld
  • 6. On Regulations @frost_sullivan FROST & SULLIVAN Government regulators in 2010 will begin to view wireless networks as similar to toll roads, where drivers pay a premium for, presumably, roads that are less congested and better maintained than toll-free highways. Source: Computerworld
  • 7. Mobile Internet is Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet More users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years. Smartphones will out-ship the global notebook + netbook market in 2010E and out-ship the global PC market (notebook + netbook + desktop) by 2012E. Five IP-based products are growing: 3G adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive mobile devices. Apple + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar Decade-plus Internet usage / monetization ramps (Japan) Massive mobile data growth is driving transitions for carriers and equipment providers Source: Morgan Stanley
  • 8. Mobile Internet is Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Emerging markets have material potential for mobile for EM users and SMEs, the Internet will be mobile. Game-Changing Communications / Commerce Platforms: Social Networking + Mobile Emerging Very Rapidly Game-Changing Communications / Commerce Platforms Real-time, cloud-based services – including emerging LBS. Regulators Can Help Advance Mobile Internet Evolution… Or Slow It Source: Morgan Stanley
  • 9. Mobile Devices Are On A Path to Eclipse PC @fgens FRANK GENS Senior VP & Chief Analyst IDC For the first time, there will be over 1 billion mobile devices accessing the Internet by year-end, gaining quickly on the 1.3 billion PCs accessing the Internet (the former are growing at 2.5X the rate of the latter). 2010 will see 500,000 mobile phone applications, setting up, a "developer war like you've never seen”. Source: IDC
  • 10. On Mobile Advertising IMRAN KHAN Managing Director & Web Analyst J.P.Morgan In 2010, mobile advertising is forecast to grow 45 % to $3.8 billion, with the breakdown being $3.2 billion SMS advertising, $253 million mobile display, and $321 million mobile search. Source: TechCrunch
  • 11. Mobile Penetration 2010-2015 By year-end 2010, 1.2 billion people will carry handsets capable of rich, mobile commerce, providing a rich environment for the convergence of mobility and the Web. By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide. The combined installed base of smartphones & browser-equipped enhanced phones will exceed 1.82 billion units. by 2014, there will be a 90% mobile penetration rate and 6.5 billion mobile connections. Penetration will not be uniform, as continents like Asia (excluding Japan) will see a 68% penetration and Africa will see a 56% mobile penetration. . By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web. Source: Gartner
  • 12. On Android Android will take second place behind Symbian OS as early as 2012. Android will benefit from being an open operating system Wireless carriers and manufacturers will also offer Android devices that differentiate themselves from one another. It's possible that some Android phones will be designed for business users while others will be geared toward consumers. Consumer market can be segmented: social networking; music. Source: Computerworld
  • 13. Commerce and Ad Spending @eMarketer eMARKETER Digital Intelligence @eMarketer Mobile commerce‟s time has arrived - consumers are using their devices to buy books, apparel and other items associated with online shopping on a PC.. Mobile Is moving into the mainstream - Mobile ad spending will rise from $416 million in 2009 to $593 million in 2010 as more brands and agencies integrate mobile into their marketing mix. Source: eMarketer.com
  • 14. iPhone, Android, Games and AR SARAH PEREZ Writer, Read Write Start DANA OSHIRO @sarahintampa @suzyperplexus Read Write Web Writer, Read Write Start @sarahintampa: The iPhone still rules and grabs more mobileWrite Web Read market share than ever before, Android becomes the number two mobile platform by year-end. @sarahintampa: iPhone app backlash begins: Apple surprises us with a brand-new feature that can help us find new and useful apps via iTunes. @suzyperplexus: Geo-locational games and AR will come together in 2010. We're going to see strange behavior from those playing zombie shooter games on their commutes.. Source: ReadWriteWeb
  • 15. Location, Augmented Reality, Payments @petecashmore PETE CASHMORE Founder, CEO Mashable Fueled by the ubiquity of GPS in modern smartphones, location-sharing services .. may become the breakout services of the year ... provided they're not crushed by the addition of location-based features to Twitter and Facebook. Augmented reality: The challenge for such services is to prove their utility: They have the "cool factor," but can they be truly useful? 2010 will be the breakthrough year of the much-anticipated mobile payments market. Source: CNN
  • 16. Mobile Ads @venturebeat One of the most attractive characteristics of mobile for advertisers is the opportunity for more accurate ad targeting. Typical parameters include carrier, device type and mobile channel, with the possibility to add location, behavioral, and demographic information. Frequency of use, reach and usage context are the important factors when inserting ads into applications... Advertisers still like to see things like TV spots, which they understand, even though this is often not rational in terms of return on investment. Maybe 2010 will be the year when advertisers start seeing mobile less as an experiment and more as a serious part of their campaigns. Source: Venture Beat
  • 17. Location and Projectors @venturebeat Facebook will enable location in its mobile apps Growing penetration by smartphones has made consumers comfortable with revealing where they are for socializing. The hottest phone feature of 2010 will be tiny projectors: The projector drives people wild. Source: Venture Beat
  • 18. Mobile Marketing MICHAEL BOLAND Senior Analyst The Kelsey Group, Mobile Local Media Mobile gets you closer to the point of purchase because it goes with you to the store, When we come out of this, we’ll see a sudden interest and demand in mobile marketing Advertisers will still need a “point of entry,” like an advertising network. No company has truly packaged local mobile search for advertisers yet. Total U.S. spend on mobile marketing will grow from $1.7 billion (2009) to $2.16 billion in 2010. Local mobile advertising will be the next hot trend, particularly in terms of local mobile search, BIA’s... Local mobile ad revenue will hit more than $3.1 billion in 2013, up from $160 million last year. Mobile search will reach $2.3 billion. Local searches (27.8% of all searches in 2008), expected to hit 35.1% in 2013. Source: Media Buyer Planner
  • 19. Virtual Goods, Palm & Email @jeremysliew JEREMYS LIEW Managing Directore Light Speed Venture Partner Virtual goods means real revenue in mobile. Virtual goods can help eliminate the friction to adoption. The virtual-goods business model has proven to be a very scalable one, bodes well for the entire ecosystem. Still waiting for “off-deck” to (really) happen - still a long way off from mobile- app developers being able to create true direct-to-consumer offerings like their cousins in the web world. Nokia or RIM buys Palm (and the next round of big battles begin) The enterprise moves past using mobile data for just email. Source: Light Speed Blog
  • 20. Apple, LBS, and Regulations JACK GOLD Founder & Principal Analyst J.Gold Associates AT&T is certain to lose the iPhone exclusive within a year, Apple is nuts to keep it with one carrier. 2010 will finally be the year of LBS. Business people will be able to use location-based services embedded on their smartphones to track down delivery or service workers more quickly and easily than they can today. The FCC will end up listening to the carriers who do have some legitimate concerns regarding overtaxed networks Source: Computerworld
  • 21. Smartphones & Carriers @jkontherun JAMES KENDRICK Editor,jkontherun GigOm Network Smartphone adoption will start driving down data plan costs. More consumers than ever will demand the ability to interact fully with the mobile web on their phones. Smartphone sales will continue to skyrocket, and carriers are going to realize that they must make the mobile web available at low cost, or lose customers. Major carriers making pricing concessions on data plans..and figure out ways to generate other revenues. Source: jkontherun
  • 22. Mobile in Asia @rohitdadwal ROHIT DADWAL MD, Asia Pacific Mobile Marketing Association @rohitdadwal: 1/3rd of global mobile subscribers come from Asia. Affordability, functionality will drive regional mobile growth. @rohitdadwal: Mobile data users in Asia will increase as services like video or peer- to-peer applications become more popular. @rohitdadwal: Smartphone applications will drive mobile Internet growth, pushing subscribers to add mobile data VAS.. @rohitdadwal: With the Google-Admob merger, the industry will see integrated marketing campaigns across web, mobile, print & other channels. .. @rohitdadwal: New policies will be implemented to address privacy concerns arising from social media going mobile.
  • 23. Mobile in Asia @rohitdadwal ROHIT DADWAL MD, Asia Pacific Mobile Marketing Association @rohitdadwal: Mobile payment will be the most lucrative mobile functionality in the medium term across Asia. @rohitdadwal: By 2010 the APAC mobile healthcare business will be worth about USD 1 bn with 70% of users in more advanced economies. @rohitdadwal: It is expected that at the current growth rate mobile music sales should hit USD 500 mn by 2015. .. @rohitdadwal: Advertising within mobile games creates revenue that can be used to subsidise mobile gaming services.
  • 24. Smart Phone, LBS, Mobile Apps & Android @matthamblen MATT HAMBLEN Senior Writer Computer World Smartphones will grab an even bigger share of the overall mobile phone market. AT&T will lose its exclusive rights to sell the iPhone The Android mobile OS will take off.2010 global shipment could be 8.2M for 36 Android based phones. The OS to become no#2 by 2012. Mobile app stores will continue to balloon. Location-based services will get their due on smartphones.. Source: ComputerWorld
  • 25. Networks, Targeting, Brand Metrics, Soft Sell KEN MALLON DUNCAN SOUTHGATE Sr V.P., Custom Solutions Global Innovation Director Dynamic Logic Millward Brown @kpmallon @millward_brown Google's $750 million purchase of mobile ad network Admob reinforces that 2010 will be a significant year for mobile. With Apple's iPhone, Google's Android and RIM's BlackBerry platforms making the smartphone choices more attractive and cost of access slowly coming down, mobile web usage numbers will increase. Mobile provides the ability to target by site, phone model, demographics and location, all of which can be useful to advertisers. Mobile is two to five times better at driving brand metrics than online. We expect this differential to remain consistent in 2010. . Advertisers will initially favor the soft-sell approach of providing useful content in this space, rather than pushing hard-sell messaging. Source: Advertising Age
  • 26. On Augmented Reality In Information & Games @iandouglas IAN DOUGLAS Head of Digital Production Telegraph Your phone screen will become a much more interesting place in 2010. Location-based games will spread, littering the landscape with puzzles, monsters and easter eggs, and navigation displays will move from bird's-eye-view map-based diagrams to arrows on the road. Forgetful people will find their lives transformed as their phones remind them of the names of the people they meet and blank walls will become huge, constantly- updated displays. Source: Telegraph
  • 27. On Microsoft and Mobile @johnbattelle JOHN BATTELLE Founder & Chairman Federated Media @johnbattelle: Microsoft will have a major success in the phone market.
  • 28. Cellphones, The Next Tobacco? @mariansalzman MARIAN SALZMAN President, N.America,Euro PR Trend Spotter & Author @mariansalzman: Cell phones, the Next Tobacco?/Heading Off Angst- Awarenss of brain hlth & injuries will rise; links b/w cell phnes & brain cancer will make ppl ask: R they the nxt tobacco?
  • 29. On Mobile Internet @equalman ERIK QUALMAN Author Socialnomics @equalman: Mobile phones will continue to increase as the users’ device of choice to consume Internet content
  • 30. On Android @pgillin PAUL GILLIN Writer, Author & Social Media Consultant Principal at Paul Gillin Communications @pgillin: Android is the mobile story of the year, vaulting Google into the uncontested role of iPhone spoiler.
  • 31. „App‟ Deletion @adambroitman ADAM BROITMAN Partner & Ringleader Circ.us @adambroitman: App deletion stats will be as staggering as app adoption were in 2009.
  • 32. Commerce, Android, Augmented Reality, Experiences MOBILE INTERACTIVE GROUP Ad Funded Interactive Services M-Commerce and Micro Payments Return of SMS Voting to P-TV The year of Google Android Augmented Reality is set to gain ground rapidly in 2010. brands will be more willing to experiment with mobile to interact with consumers at a time that is convenient to them, whilst also providing interactive, memorable and engaging experiences to consumers. Source: Mobile Interactive Group
  • 33. Coupons, Monetisation, Ad Formats MOBILE INTERACTIVE GROUP Mobile Coupons-- Loyalty programmes could be launching onto the mobile platform in 2010. Smartphone Growth --Increased adoption and use of smarthphone devices will lead more and more consumers to access the internet spontaneously, whenever they want to, wherever they are. Monetisation of Social Media--Adoption of social media services via mobile will continue to grow throughout 2010. New channels for monetisation will be introduced throughout 2010, making it the year of social media and mobile Rich Media Ad Formats --4th Screen Advertising is pioneering in developing new rich media ad formats to help brands engage with their target audience. There will be more new formats announced in 2010 incorporating „Dynamic Feed‟ and „SMS Ad Network‟. Source: Mobile Interactive Group
  • 34. 2010 Mobile Media Trends THE MOBILE ENTERTAINMENT FORUM Fragmentation and variance amongst handsets and now application stores will continue to plague the industry, however the growth of applications on the Android platform will close the gap on Apple’s App Store Operator enabling services will start to be widely deployed, facilitating the growth of rich media content that is simpler, faster and offers a better user experience Media publishers will start to experiment with micro-payments, subscription service models and alternative payment methods which challenge the operators‟ dominance.. Books will emerge as a new and popular content category for smartphones Technology innovation will continue, with content developers experimenting with 3D mobile video viewers and augmented reality for mobile Source: M-E-F
  • 35. 2010 Mobile Media Trends THE MOBILE ENTERTAINMENT FORUM The emerging risk of illicit charging by in-app billing will be met by firm regulatory action.. Significant tightening of premium rate regulation in the Atlantic region will spread across the world 2010 will be the year of multiplatform dual-delivery of content including music, video and games, across mobile phones, TVs and PCs The growing consumer demand for data-heavy services will put greater pressure on networks, with flat rate data tariffs increasingly subjected to stringent download limits.. Complexity, confusion and ambiguity in the application of rights to the mobile platform will be addressed seriously in 2010 Source: M-E-F
  • 36. 2010 Android Predictions @devindra DEVINDRA HARDAWAR Tech Blogger Many more phones to choose from-- 2010 will see the release of more Android phones than we’ve ever seen before. The most promising upcoming Android phone is Sony Ericsson‟s XPERIA X10 App development will take off, and iPhone apps will cross over. Android will show up on many other devices.. A more polished and stable Android OS Android hardware will improve faster than the iPhone.. Source: Royal Pingdom
  • 37. 2010 Android Predictions @devindra DEVINDRA HARDAWAR Tech Blogger More exclusive content from Google--Google Maps Nav on future Android 2.0 devices, Apple will end up bringing it over to the iPhone as well. No more multi-touch hesitation.. Ramped-up Android marketing Expect converts from the Blackberry and Windows Mobile camps --RIM and Microsoft are struggling to keep pace with rapid evolution of modern smartphones. We won’t see a decent modern Windows Mobile OS until 7.0 comes out in 2010. More custom interface tweaks Source: Royal Pingdom
  • 38. Clouds & Premium Advertising Jasper de Vreught Ashu Mathura Director Of Sales Founder & CEO MADS MADS Two business models: the “long tail model” like AdWords and AdMob, and the “premium model” like Doubleclick and MADS, which are aiming to build a network of premium publishers and attract premium advertisers. while there is a lot of focus on downloaded apps right now, most of this functionality is likely to move into the cloud, and there’ll be a corresponding impact on how advertising is done.. Source: Venture Beat
  • 39. Security & Mobile.. @websenselabs Smartphones are hackers‟ next playground. Poor security for applications on smartphones can put users‟ and organizations‟ data at risk. Hackers will begin more dedicated targeting of smartphones in 2010. Source: Websense
  • 40. Smartphones, GPS, Videos, QVGA @mobilegazette MOBILE GAZETTE Smartphone features will be found increasingly in mid-market devices, with key products: Samsung's Bada platform and Symbian S60. GPS is everywhere these days, although basic GPS functionality will remain limited for most users Google's free turn-by-turn navigation will really start to eat into the market for standalone devices. Companies such as TomTom are looking increasingly vulnerable, and we might see some interesting strategic moves in this area. The emphasis on cameras shifts from still photos to video capabilities (with direct uploads to YouTube). Consumers will be more interested in getting HD video from their phones. Expect QVGA displays to be the standard in all but the very cheapest phones.. Source: Mobile Gazette
  • 41. HSDPA, Blogging & Video Sharing, TV @mobilegazette MOBILE GAZETTE HSDPA high-speed downloads and uploads - growth will continue. Expect to see a rapid growth in mobile blogging and video sharing. 2010 will not be the year of mobile TV. Source: Mobile Gazette
  • 42. Less Social, More “Social Aware” @trendsspotting Dr. Taly Weiss CEO and Head of Research TrendsSpotting.com Trends Research @trendsspotting: 2010- the year “you‟re being followed”. @trendsspotting: Influenced by mobile location abilities, social networks at large will lose their globalization. @trendsspotting: People will learn new functionalities for maps: from “where” to “what” and “who”. @trendsspotting: QR codes everywhere.
  • 43. ? Do You Follow This QR Codes Everywhere Read more on “QR Codes and Real Time Marketing”
  • 44. @trendsspotting Discover more Trends Insights:
  • 45. TrendsSpotting offers Trend consulting, Customized Trend Research Reports & Syndicated Trend Reports, published at top market research databases. TrendsSpotting research serves leading international brands. TrendsSpotting’s insights are presented at The TrendsSpotting Blog and quoted in the news media. Visit us here: www.trendsspotting.com