"2010 Mobile Predictions" is the sixth report from the series "2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters"....
"2010 Mobile Predictions" is the sixth report from the series "2010 Influencers Series: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters". TrendsSpotting Market Research is now running its third annual prediction reports following major trends in six categories. We will be featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year. This year we are adopting a new “tweet style” format, easier for you to focus on, comprehend and forward.
tawfique007Hi, Very informative ppt. Could you please send it to me? tawfique.ahmed@grameenphone.com
Thanks in advance.1 year ago
Are you sure you want to
harrypotter12Very well presented. Thanks http://www.clickandsendparcel.com1 year ago
Are you sure you want to
Adriano Brandão at Enterpreneurin the era of colaboration (slideshare is exactly the idea of sharing) this sucker wont let the users to download the ppt... who understand that?1 year ago
2010 Mobile Influencers: Trend Predictions in 140 Characters, By TrendsSpottingPresentation Transcript
More in this series >
Social Media | Video | eMarketing | Technology | Consumer Trends
TrendsSpotting Market
Research is now running its
third annual prediction reports
following major trends in six
categories. We will be
featuring the predictions of
digital and marketing experts
on the big changes awaiting us
in the coming year.
This year we are adopting a
new “tweet style” format,
easier for you to focus on,
comprehend and forward.
More in this series >
Social Media | Video | eMarketing | Technology | Consumer Trends
Findings:
Major trends in 2010 Mobile:
Across many of these predictions, we
have identified the following trends
suggested to influence Mobile in 2010:
#payment #commerce #metrics
#Ad: SMS, display, search, premium
#Apple #iPhone #Apps
#Google #Android
#GPS #location #AR
#gaming #music #video
Smartphone: Market Share and Devices
@frost_sullivan FROST & SULLIVAN
In 2010, nearly 1.3 billion mobile phones will ship globally, and 250 million of
them will be smartphones.
In the U.S., where smartphone growth is robust, virtually all phones sold will be
smartphones within five years.
Smartphone will continue to be the most vital computing/communication device
people carry in 2010.
Smartphones won't be the only computing devices we have or use.
Smartphone displays will never be large enough or clear enough to use for hours
of reading or video viewing..
Source: Computerworld
On Android
@frost_sullivan FROST & SULLIVAN
The Android operating system is expected to ship globally - 8.2 million in 2010.
The total number of Android devices to be introduced in 2010 (will grow) to 36.
Android could start to dominate the smartphone OS market by 2014. Android could
be the 3rd most popular OS, shipping on 65 million phones.
That would put it behind Symbian OS projected to ship on 233 million phones that
year, and RIM which will be on 92 million phones.
Source: Computerworld
On Regulations
@frost_sullivan FROST & SULLIVAN
Government regulators in 2010 will begin to view wireless networks as similar to toll
roads, where drivers pay a premium for, presumably, roads that are less congested and
better maintained than toll-free highways.
Source: Computerworld
Mobile Internet is Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet
More users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within
5 years.
Smartphones will out-ship the global notebook + netbook market in 2010E and
out-ship the global PC market (notebook + netbook + desktop) by 2012E.
Five IP-based products are growing:
3G adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive mobile devices.
Apple + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar
Decade-plus Internet usage / monetization ramps (Japan)
Massive mobile data growth is driving transitions for carriers and equipment
providers
Source: Morgan Stanley
Mobile Internet is Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet
Emerging markets have material potential for mobile for EM users and SMEs, the
Internet will be mobile.
Game-Changing Communications / Commerce Platforms: Social Networking +
Mobile Emerging Very Rapidly
Game-Changing Communications / Commerce Platforms Real-time, cloud-based
services – including emerging LBS.
Regulators Can Help Advance Mobile Internet Evolution… Or Slow It
Source: Morgan Stanley
Mobile Devices Are On A Path to Eclipse PC
@fgens FRANK GENS
Senior VP & Chief Analyst
IDC
For the first time, there will be over 1 billion mobile devices accessing the
Internet by year-end, gaining quickly on the 1.3 billion PCs accessing the Internet
(the former are growing at 2.5X the rate of the latter).
2010 will see 500,000 mobile phone applications, setting up, a "developer war
like you've never seen”.
Source: IDC
On Mobile Advertising
IMRAN KHAN
Managing Director & Web Analyst
J.P.Morgan
In 2010, mobile advertising is forecast to grow 45 % to $3.8 billion, with the
breakdown being $3.2 billion SMS advertising, $253 million mobile display, and
$321 million mobile search.
Source: TechCrunch
Mobile Penetration 2010-2015
By year-end 2010, 1.2 billion people will carry handsets capable of rich, mobile
commerce, providing a rich environment for the convergence of mobility and the
Web.
By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device
worldwide. The combined installed base of smartphones & browser-equipped
enhanced phones will exceed 1.82 billion units.
by 2014, there will be a 90% mobile penetration rate and 6.5 billion mobile
connections. Penetration will not be uniform, as continents like Asia (excluding
Japan) will see a 68% penetration and Africa will see a 56% mobile penetration. .
By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and
relationships as search engines are to the Web.
Source: Gartner
On Android
Android will take second place behind Symbian OS as early as 2012.
Android will benefit from being an open operating system
Wireless carriers and manufacturers will also offer Android devices that
differentiate themselves from one another.
It's possible that some Android phones will be designed for business users while
others will be geared toward consumers.
Consumer market can be segmented: social networking; music.
Source: Computerworld
Commerce and Ad Spending
@eMarketer eMARKETER
Digital Intelligence
@eMarketer
Mobile commerce‟s time has arrived - consumers are using their devices to buy
books, apparel and other items associated with online shopping on a PC..
Mobile Is moving into the mainstream - Mobile ad spending will rise from $416
million in 2009 to $593 million in 2010 as more brands and agencies integrate
mobile into their marketing mix.
Source: eMarketer.com
iPhone, Android, Games and AR
SARAH PEREZ Writer, Read Write Start
DANA OSHIRO
@sarahintampa @suzyperplexus Read Write Web
Writer, Read Write Start
@sarahintampa: The iPhone still rules and grabs more mobileWrite Web
Read market share than
ever before, Android becomes the number two mobile platform by year-end.
@sarahintampa: iPhone app backlash begins: Apple surprises us with a brand-new
feature that can help us find new and useful apps via iTunes.
@suzyperplexus: Geo-locational games and AR will come together in 2010. We're
going to see strange behavior from those playing zombie shooter games on their
commutes..
Source: ReadWriteWeb
Location, Augmented Reality, Payments
@petecashmore PETE CASHMORE
Founder, CEO
Mashable
Fueled by the ubiquity of GPS in modern smartphones, location-sharing services ..
may become the breakout services of the year ... provided they're not crushed by
the addition of location-based features to Twitter and Facebook.
Augmented reality: The challenge for such services is to prove their utility: They
have the "cool factor," but can they be truly useful?
2010 will be the breakthrough year of the much-anticipated mobile payments
market.
Source: CNN
Mobile Ads
@venturebeat
One of the most attractive characteristics of mobile for advertisers is the
opportunity for more accurate ad targeting.
Typical parameters include carrier, device type and mobile channel, with the
possibility to add location, behavioral, and demographic information.
Frequency of use, reach and usage context are the important factors when
inserting ads into applications...
Advertisers still like to see things like TV spots, which they understand, even
though this is often not rational in terms of return on investment.
Maybe 2010 will be the year when advertisers start seeing mobile less as an
experiment and more as a serious part of their campaigns.
Source: Venture Beat
Location and Projectors
@venturebeat
Facebook will enable location in its mobile apps Growing penetration by
smartphones has made consumers comfortable with revealing where they are for
socializing.
The hottest phone feature of 2010 will be tiny projectors: The projector drives
people wild.
Source: Venture Beat
Mobile Marketing
MICHAEL BOLAND
Senior Analyst
The Kelsey Group, Mobile Local Media
Mobile gets you closer to the point of purchase because it goes with you to the
store,
When we come out of this, we’ll see a sudden interest and demand in mobile
marketing
Advertisers will still need a “point of entry,” like an advertising network. No
company has truly packaged local mobile search for advertisers yet.
Total U.S. spend on mobile marketing will grow from $1.7 billion (2009) to $2.16
billion in 2010.
Local mobile advertising will be the next hot trend, particularly in terms of local
mobile search, BIA’s...
Local mobile ad revenue will hit more than $3.1 billion in 2013, up from $160
million last year. Mobile search will reach $2.3 billion. Local searches (27.8% of all
searches in 2008), expected to hit 35.1% in 2013.
Source: Media Buyer Planner
Virtual Goods, Palm & Email
@jeremysliew JEREMYS LIEW
Managing Directore
Light Speed Venture Partner
Virtual goods means real revenue in mobile. Virtual goods can help eliminate the
friction to adoption.
The virtual-goods business model has proven to be a very scalable one, bodes well
for the entire ecosystem.
Still waiting for “off-deck” to (really) happen - still a long way off from mobile-
app developers being able to create true direct-to-consumer offerings like their
cousins in the web world.
Nokia or RIM buys Palm (and the next round of big battles begin)
The enterprise moves past using mobile data for just email.
Source: Light Speed Blog
Apple, LBS, and Regulations
JACK GOLD
Founder & Principal Analyst
J.Gold Associates
AT&T is certain to lose the iPhone exclusive within a year, Apple is nuts to keep it with
one carrier.
2010 will finally be the year of LBS.
Business people will be able to use location-based services embedded on their
smartphones to track down delivery or service workers more quickly and easily than they
can today.
The FCC will end up listening to the carriers who do have some legitimate concerns
regarding overtaxed networks
Source: Computerworld
Smartphones & Carriers
@jkontherun JAMES KENDRICK
Editor,jkontherun
GigOm Network
Smartphone adoption will start driving down data plan costs. More consumers
than ever will demand the ability to interact fully with the mobile web on their
phones.
Smartphone sales will continue to skyrocket, and carriers are going to realize that
they must make the mobile web available at low cost, or lose customers.
Major carriers making pricing concessions on data plans..and figure out ways to
generate other revenues.
Source: jkontherun
Mobile in Asia
@rohitdadwal ROHIT DADWAL
MD, Asia Pacific
Mobile Marketing Association
@rohitdadwal: 1/3rd of global mobile subscribers come from Asia. Affordability,
functionality will drive regional mobile growth.
@rohitdadwal: Mobile data users in Asia will increase as services like video or peer-
to-peer applications become more popular.
@rohitdadwal: Smartphone applications will drive mobile Internet growth, pushing
subscribers to add mobile data VAS..
@rohitdadwal: With the Google-Admob merger, the industry will see integrated
marketing campaigns across web, mobile, print & other channels. ..
@rohitdadwal: New policies will be implemented to address privacy concerns
arising from social media going mobile.
Mobile in Asia
@rohitdadwal ROHIT DADWAL
MD, Asia Pacific
Mobile Marketing Association
@rohitdadwal: Mobile payment will be the most lucrative mobile functionality in
the medium term across Asia.
@rohitdadwal: By 2010 the APAC mobile healthcare business will be worth about
USD 1 bn with 70% of users in more advanced economies.
@rohitdadwal: It is expected that at the current growth rate mobile music sales
should hit USD 500 mn by 2015. ..
@rohitdadwal: Advertising within mobile games creates revenue that can be used
to subsidise mobile gaming services.
Smart Phone, LBS, Mobile Apps & Android
@matthamblen MATT HAMBLEN
Senior Writer
Computer World
Smartphones will grab an even bigger share of the overall mobile phone market.
AT&T will lose its exclusive rights to sell the iPhone
The Android mobile OS will take off.2010 global shipment could be 8.2M for 36
Android based phones. The OS to become no#2 by 2012.
Mobile app stores will continue to balloon.
Location-based services will get their due on smartphones..
Source: ComputerWorld
Networks, Targeting, Brand Metrics, Soft Sell
KEN MALLON DUNCAN SOUTHGATE
Sr V.P., Custom Solutions Global Innovation Director
Dynamic Logic Millward Brown
@kpmallon @millward_brown
Google's $750 million purchase of mobile ad network Admob reinforces that 2010
will be a significant year for mobile.
With Apple's iPhone, Google's Android and RIM's BlackBerry platforms making the
smartphone choices more attractive and cost of access slowly coming down, mobile
web usage numbers will increase.
Mobile provides the ability to target by site, phone model, demographics and
location, all of which can be useful to advertisers.
Mobile is two to five times better at driving brand metrics than online. We expect
this differential to remain consistent in 2010. .
Advertisers will initially favor the soft-sell approach of providing useful content in
this space, rather than pushing hard-sell messaging.
Source: Advertising Age
On Augmented Reality In Information & Games
@iandouglas IAN DOUGLAS
Head of Digital Production
Telegraph
Your phone screen will become a much more interesting place in 2010.
Location-based games will spread, littering the landscape with puzzles, monsters
and easter eggs, and navigation displays will move from bird's-eye-view map-based
diagrams to arrows on the road.
Forgetful people will find their lives transformed as their phones remind them of
the names of the people they meet and blank walls will become huge, constantly-
updated displays.
Source: Telegraph
On Microsoft and Mobile
@johnbattelle JOHN BATTELLE
Founder & Chairman
Federated Media
@johnbattelle: Microsoft will have a major success in the phone market.
Cellphones, The Next Tobacco?
@mariansalzman MARIAN SALZMAN
President, N.America,Euro PR
Trend Spotter & Author
@mariansalzman: Cell phones, the Next Tobacco?/Heading Off Angst- Awarenss of
brain hlth & injuries will rise; links b/w cell phnes & brain cancer will make ppl ask:
R they the nxt tobacco?
On Mobile Internet
@equalman ERIK QUALMAN
Author
Socialnomics
@equalman: Mobile phones will continue to increase as the users’ device of choice
to consume Internet content
On Android
@pgillin PAUL GILLIN
Writer, Author & Social Media Consultant
Principal at Paul Gillin Communications
@pgillin: Android is the mobile story of the year, vaulting Google into the
uncontested role of iPhone spoiler.
„App‟ Deletion
@adambroitman ADAM BROITMAN
Partner & Ringleader
Circ.us
@adambroitman: App deletion stats will be as staggering as app adoption were in
2009.
Commerce, Android, Augmented Reality, Experiences
MOBILE INTERACTIVE
GROUP
Ad Funded Interactive Services
M-Commerce and Micro Payments
Return of SMS Voting to P-TV
The year of Google Android
Augmented Reality is set to gain ground rapidly in 2010.
brands will be more willing to experiment with mobile to interact with consumers
at a time that is convenient to them, whilst also providing interactive, memorable
and engaging experiences to consumers.
Source: Mobile Interactive Group
Coupons, Monetisation, Ad Formats
MOBILE INTERACTIVE
GROUP
Mobile Coupons-- Loyalty programmes could be launching onto the mobile platform
in 2010.
Smartphone Growth --Increased adoption and use of smarthphone devices will lead
more and more consumers to access the internet spontaneously, whenever they
want to, wherever they are.
Monetisation of Social Media--Adoption of social media services via mobile will
continue to grow throughout 2010.
New channels for monetisation will be introduced throughout 2010, making it the
year of social media and mobile
Rich Media Ad Formats --4th Screen Advertising is pioneering in developing new
rich media ad formats to help brands engage with their target audience.
There will be more new formats announced in 2010 incorporating „Dynamic Feed‟
and „SMS Ad Network‟.
Source: Mobile Interactive Group
2010 Mobile Media Trends
THE MOBILE
ENTERTAINMENT FORUM
Fragmentation and variance amongst handsets and now application stores will
continue to plague the industry, however the growth of applications on the Android
platform will close the gap on Apple’s App Store
Operator enabling services will start to be widely deployed, facilitating the growth
of rich media content that is simpler, faster and offers a better user experience
Media publishers will start to experiment with micro-payments, subscription
service models and alternative payment methods which challenge the operators‟
dominance..
Books will emerge as a new and popular content category for smartphones
Technology innovation will continue, with content developers experimenting
with 3D mobile video viewers and augmented reality for mobile
Source: M-E-F
2010 Mobile Media Trends
THE MOBILE
ENTERTAINMENT FORUM
The emerging risk of illicit charging by in-app billing will be met by firm
regulatory action..
Significant tightening of premium rate regulation in the Atlantic region will spread
across the world
2010 will be the year of multiplatform dual-delivery of content including music,
video and games, across mobile phones, TVs and PCs
The growing consumer demand for data-heavy services will put greater pressure on
networks, with flat rate data tariffs increasingly subjected to stringent download
limits..
Complexity, confusion and ambiguity in the application of rights to the mobile
platform will be addressed seriously in 2010
Source: M-E-F
2010 Android Predictions
@devindra DEVINDRA HARDAWAR
Tech Blogger
Many more phones to choose from-- 2010 will see the release of more Android
phones than we’ve ever seen before.
The most promising upcoming Android phone is Sony Ericsson‟s XPERIA X10
App development will take off, and iPhone apps will cross over.
Android will show up on many other devices..
A more polished and stable Android OS
Android hardware will improve faster than the iPhone..
Source: Royal Pingdom
2010 Android Predictions
@devindra DEVINDRA HARDAWAR
Tech Blogger
More exclusive content from Google--Google Maps Nav on future Android 2.0
devices, Apple will end up bringing it over to the iPhone as well.
No more multi-touch hesitation..
Ramped-up Android marketing
Expect converts from the Blackberry and Windows Mobile camps --RIM and
Microsoft are struggling to keep pace with rapid evolution of modern smartphones.
We won’t see a decent modern Windows Mobile OS until 7.0 comes out in 2010.
More custom interface tweaks
Source: Royal Pingdom
Clouds & Premium Advertising
Jasper de Vreught Ashu Mathura
Director Of Sales Founder & CEO
MADS MADS
Two business models: the “long tail model” like AdWords and AdMob, and the
“premium model” like Doubleclick and MADS, which are aiming to build a network
of premium publishers and attract premium advertisers.
while there is a lot of focus on downloaded apps right now, most of this
functionality is likely to move into the cloud, and there’ll be a corresponding
impact on how advertising is done..
Source: Venture Beat
Security & Mobile..
@websenselabs
Smartphones are hackers‟ next playground.
Poor security for applications on smartphones can put users‟ and organizations‟
data at risk.
Hackers will begin more dedicated targeting of smartphones in 2010.
Source: Websense
Smartphones, GPS, Videos, QVGA
@mobilegazette MOBILE GAZETTE
Smartphone features will be found increasingly in mid-market devices, with key
products: Samsung's Bada platform and Symbian S60.
GPS is everywhere these days, although basic GPS functionality will remain limited
for most users
Google's free turn-by-turn navigation will really start to eat into the market for
standalone devices.
Companies such as TomTom are looking increasingly vulnerable, and we might see
some interesting strategic moves in this area.
The emphasis on cameras shifts from still photos to video capabilities (with direct
uploads to YouTube). Consumers will be more interested in getting HD video from
their phones.
Expect QVGA displays to be the standard in all but the very cheapest phones..
Source: Mobile Gazette
HSDPA, Blogging & Video Sharing, TV
@mobilegazette MOBILE GAZETTE
HSDPA high-speed downloads and uploads - growth will continue.
Expect to see a rapid growth in mobile blogging and video sharing.
2010 will not be the year of mobile TV.
Source: Mobile Gazette
Less Social, More “Social Aware”
@trendsspotting Dr. Taly Weiss
CEO and Head of Research
TrendsSpotting.com
Trends Research
@trendsspotting: 2010- the year “you‟re being followed”.
@trendsspotting: Influenced by mobile location abilities, social networks at large
will lose their globalization.
@trendsspotting: People will learn new functionalities for maps: from “where”
to “what” and “who”.
@trendsspotting: QR codes everywhere.
?
Do You Follow This
QR Codes Everywhere
Read more on “QR Codes and Real Time Marketing”
@trendsspotting Discover more Trends Insights:
TrendsSpotting offers Trend consulting, Customized Trend
Research Reports & Syndicated Trend Reports, published at top
market research databases.
TrendsSpotting research serves leading international brands.
TrendsSpotting’s insights are presented at The TrendsSpotting Blog
and quoted in the news media.
Visit us here: www.trendsspotting.com
Frank Frederik
Very informative ppt.
Could you please send it to me?
tawfique.ahmed@grameenphone.com
Thanks in advance. 1 year ago
Could you please send it to me?
@ duranmyers.xiss@gmail.com 2 years ago
Would u mind please send me a copy in my e-mail id
debasis_das2005@rediffmail.com 2 years ago