The Qatar Exchange Index declined 0.85% over the trading week to close at 11,771.83 points. Market capitalization increased by 9.55% to QR683.5 billion due to the listing of Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company. Trading value decreased by 10.47% to QR3.71 billion for the week, while trading volume declined 20.14% to 71.2 million shares. Foreign and Qatari institutions remained net buyers during the week, while foreign and Qatari retail investors were net sellers.
1. Market Review and Outlook
QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index declined 100.57 points, or 0.85%,
during the trading week, to close at 11,771.83 points. Market
capitalization increased by 9.55% to reach QR683.5 billion (bn) as
compared to QR623.9bn at the end of the previous week. The
significant increase is due to the listing of Mesaieed Petrochemical
Holding Company (MPHC). With the listing of MPHC, the number of
listed companies on the QE has increased to 43. Of the 43 listed
companies, 15 companies ended the week higher while 26 fell and 2
remained unchanged. Debuting on Wednesday, February 26, 2014,
MPHC was the best performing stock for the week, closing at QR49.50
on 16.2 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Widam Food
Company (WDAM) was the worst performing stock with a decline of
17.45% on 1.9mn shares traded.
11,950
Regional Indices
Qatar (QE)*
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait**
Oman
Bahrain
Close
11,771.83
4,220.45
4,958.66
9,106.55
7,692.75
7,113.87
1,372.67
WTD%
MTD%
YTD%
(0.8)
0.9
0.9
1.3
(0.6)
(0.7)
0.5
5.5
11.9
6.1
3.9
(0.8)
0.4
6.1
13.4
25.2
15.6
6.7
1.9
4.1
9.9
11,855.94
11,839.46
11,825
10,000,000
11,771.83
11,700
0
23-Feb
24-Feb
25-Feb
26-Feb
Volume
27-Feb
QE Index
Week ended
Feb 27, 2014
3,707.2
683,473.6
623,914.0
9.5
89.1
(20.1)
42,660
32,713
30.4
43
42
2.4
15:26
Value Traded (QR mn)
Week ended
Feb 20, 2014
4,140.6
71.2
Market Indicators
31:9
–
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn)
Volume (mn)
Number of Transactions
Companies Traded
Market Breadth
Market Indices
Close
Total Return
17,027.0
All Share Index
2,956.8
Banks/Financial Svcs.
2,867.9
Industrials
3,965.5
Transportation
2,016.8
Real Estate
2,019.09
Insurance
2,811.3
Telecoms
1,597.5
Consumer
6,861.0
Al Rayan Islamic Index
3,373.9
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
WTD%
-0.3%
-0.2%
0.2%
1.2%
-4.2%
-2.8%
-2.1%
-1.9%
1.1%
-0.4%
Chg. %
(10.5)
MTD%
6.8
7.2
9.0
6.9
4.1
0.1
7.5
1.5
13.0
4.9
YTD%
14.8
14.3
17.4
13.3
8.5
3.4
20.3
9.9
15.3
11.1
3.5%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.0%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
1,018.03
2,193.75
850.76
10,465.77
140.96
123.64
21.44
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
187,681.9
85,315.7
137,549.8
493,995.3#
111,758.5
25,525.8
51,749.6
Qatar
Oman
Kuwait
(3.5%)
Bahrain
(0.6%) (0.7%) (0.8%)
Abu Dhabi
Foreign institutions remained bullish for the week with net buying
of QR213.2mn vs. net buying of QR277.7mn in the prior week.
Qatari institutions also remained bullish with net buying of QR113.4mn
vs. net buying of QR56.7mn the week before. Foreign retail investors
turned bullish for the week with net buying of QR16.7mn vs. net selling
of QR83.2mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish
with net selling of QR343.3mn vs. QR202.1mn the week before. Thus
far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio
investment inflow of ~$720.26mn.
11,900.38
Dubai
Trading value during the week decreased by 10.47% to reach
QR3.71bn vs. QR4.14bn in the prior week. The Industrials sector,
driven by MPHC, led the trading value during the week, accounting
for 44.59% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume
declined by 20.14% to reach 71.2mn shares vs. 89.1mn shares in
the prior week. The number of transactions rose by 30.41% to reach
42,660 transactions versus 32,713 transactions in the prior week. The
Industrials sector also led the trading volume, accounting for 31.01%.
11,885.78
Saudi Arabia
During the week, Milaha (QNNS), Qatar Gas Transportation
Company (QGTS), WDAM and others reported their 2013 financial
results. QNNS posted a net profit of QR171.8mn for the fourth quarter
of 2013 (4Q2013), a drop of 15.86% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Net
income receded mainly due to a 37.40% QoQ surge in operating
expenses and SG&A. QNNS announced a cash dividend of
QR5.00/share (dividend yield: 5.5%) as compared to QR3.75 in 2012.
QGTS, reported net income, before appropriations, of QR176.5mn (8.69% QoQ, -13.17% year-on-year) for 4Q2013. The bottom-line was
also impacted by QR6.4mn in losses from derivative instruments in
joint ventures. Dividends per share of QR1.10 was in line with our
estimate. WDAM posted a net profit of QR54.9mn in 2013 versus
QR75.0mn in 2012. Earnings per share (EPS) amounted to QR3.05 in
2013 compared to QR4.17 in 2012. Widam‟s Board recommended
cash dividends of QR2.10 per share.
20,000,000
TTM P/E**
P/B**
Dividend Yield
15.0
18.1
13.4
18.3
15.7
11.0
9.6
2.0
1.6
1.7
2.3
1.2
1.6
0.9
4.0
1.9
3.6
3.3
3.7
3.6
3.5
#
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of Feb. 26, 2014) (**Data as of Feb. 24, 2014)
Page 1 of 5
2. News
Economic News
QCB to issue T-bills worth QR4bn – The Qatar Central Bank
(QCB) will issue treasury bills for periods of three, six and nine
months on March 4, 2014. The total amount of issuance is
worth QR4bn. (QCB)
Market & Corporate News
Qatar bourse to see QR5bn inflows after MSCI upgrade –
The Qatar Exchange (QE) expects as much as QR5bn worth of
foreign funds to flow in after its upgrade by MSCI to emerging
market status in June 2014. QE‟s Acting Chairman Dr Hussain
Ali al-Abdullah said the bourse, which is slated to see more
listings in future, could soon witness the advent of exchange
traded funds. Dr Hussain added that around QR3bn to QR5bn
is expected to come from foreign investors to Qatar, after the
market upgrade. Last year, global index compiler MSCI had
upgraded Qatar and the UAE to emerging market from frontier
status. (Gulf-Times.com)
QGTS’ 4Q2013 results in-line on an operating basis –
Nakilat (QGTS) reported 4Q2013 results with: (1) Revenue
from wholly-owned vessels in line vs. our estimate at QR763mn
(flat QoQ and YoY). (2) Share of operating profits from JVs
falling to QR72mn (-11% QoQ, +35% YoY) and was 7% below
our estimate due to possible sequential softness of LPG
shipping rates beyond our expectations. EBITDA of QR579mn
(flat QoQ and YoY) was only 1% ahead of our estimate mostly
driven by better-than-expected operating costs for the quarter.
(3) Adjusted EBITDA of QR661mn (-2% QoQ and YoY) was
also just 1% below our estimate of QR671mn driven primarily
by interest, vessel sub-chartering and other income. (4) Net
income, before appropriations, of QR177mn (-9% QoQ, -13%
YoY) was also impacted by QR6mn in losses from derivative
instruments in JVs, which we do not model. Excluding this, net
income was 9% softer than our estimate of QR201mn. Items
such as depreciation & amortization and finance costs also
impacted earnings vs. our estimate. DPS of QR1.10 a share is
in line with our estimate. This represents an annual growth of
10% and represents a payout of almost 84%. We continue to
expect QR1.20 in DPS for 2014. We continue to remain positive
on Nakilat over the long term given its steady operating model
and solid dividend yield. QGTS remains Qatar‟s primary LNG
carrier and benefits from stable/visible revenue and cash flow
through 25-year fixed (price and quantity) charter contracts with
the state-controlled LNG producers, Qatargas and RasGas.
With fleet expansion completed in 2010, we expect strong FCF
generation to allow QGTS to meet its debt repayments (2013
net debt: QR21.2bn) comfortably and lead to EPS accretion.
Moreover, the shipyard business could surprise positively later
in 2014/2015. (QE, QNBFS)
GISS reports QR217.8mn net profit in 4Q2013 – Gulf
International Services (GISS) reported a net profit of
QR217.8mn in 4Q2013, an increase of 31.1% QoQ. Net profit
for 2013 amounted to QR677mn, rising 45.8% YoY. Revenue
rose by 5.6% QoQ to QR607.3mn, while it rose by 46.2% YoY
to QR2,301.7mn in 2013. EPS amounted to QR4.55 in 2013 as
compared to QR3.12 in 2012. GISS board of directors has
proposed an annual dividend distribution of QR2 per share and
25% bonus shares. (QE, GISS Press Release)
AHCS reports QR266.5mn net profit in 4Q2013 - Aamal
Company (AHCS) reported a net profit of QR266.5mn in
4Q2013, up by 149.9% vs. QR106.7mn for 3Q2013. The
primary reason for this growth was net fair value gains on
investment properties which jumped to QR245.1mn at the end
of 2013 vs. QR50.8mn in first nine-months of 2013. For FY2013
revenue reached QR2,122.6mn, reflecting an increase of 2.6%
as compared to QR2,069.3mn in 2012. Overall, the company's
FY2013 net profit decreased by 14.8% YoY to QR506.9mn.
Meanwhile, AHCS' board recommended to transfer the profits
of the year to the retained earnings. Additionally, the company's
AGM will be held on April 6, 2014. (QE)
WDAM posts net profit of QR54.9mn in 2013 – Widam Food
Company (previously Mawashi) has posted a net profit of
QR54.9mn in 2013 versus QR75mn in 2012. Earnings per
Share (EPS) amounted to QR3.05 in 2013 compared to
QR4.17 in 2012. The Board has recommended cash dividends
of QR 2.10 per share (QE).
QNNS’ net income down 16% QoQ in 4Q2013 – QNNS
posted a net profit of QR171.8mn for 4Q2013 (a drop of 15.9%
QoQ) vs. our estimate of QR208.5mn. Net income fell short of
our expectations mainly due to a 37.4% QoQ surge in operating
expenses and SG&A. QNNS announced a cash dividend of
QR5.00/share (Dividend yield: 5.5%) vs. our estimate of
QR4.00/share (2012: QR3.75). (QE, QNBFS Research)
UDCD posts a net loss of QR183mn in 4Q2013 – The United
Development Company's (UDCD) posted a net loss of
QR183mn in 4Q2013. The loss is primarily due to loss from
share of associates. According to the 2013 annual report
footnote, “Middle East Dredging Company Q.S.C. (the
associate) is involved in project related dredging and
reclamation activities in the Gulf states and other neighboring
countries. The associate sustained losses relating to the Satah
Al Razboot (SARB) Project. The project has been characterized
by various delays and difficulties resulting in a cost overrun on
the part of the associate. The management of the associate has
submitted a claim to the counterparty in an effort to recover a
portion of the cost overruns and the settlement amount is under
negotiation. As a result the 45.9% equity holding in the
associate is impaired in full as at 31 December 2013”. We note
that the SARB project is based in Abu Dhabi and the carrying
value of the firm was QR263.8mn in 2012. For FY2013 UDCD‟s
revenue reached QR2,081.3mn, down by 23.8% YoY as
compared to QR2,730.9mn in 2012. The company‟s FY2013
net profit decreased by 55.8% YoY to QR322.8mn. EPS
amounted to QR0.96 for 2013 as compared to QR2.17 in 2012.
Meanwhile, UDCD's board of directors has recommended a
cash dividend of 10%, which translates into QR1.00 per share
(same as last year), in addition to 5% bonus shares. (QE, GulfTimes.com)
AKHI posts net profit of QR66mn in 2013 – Al Khaleej
Takaful Group (AKHI) posted a net profit of QR66mn in 2013
vs. QR78.2mn in 2012. EPS was QR3.87 in 2013 compared to
QR5.50 in 2012. The Board of Directors recommended 30%
bonus shares 30% with the results (QR1.00 and 20% stock
dividend in 2012). (QE)
QOIS posts net profit of QR19.8mn in 2013 – Qatar Oman
Investment Company (QOIS) posted a net profit of QR19.8mn
2013 vs. QR18.8mn in 2012. EPS was QR0.629 in 2013
compared to QR0.596 in 2012. The Board of Directors
recommended cash dividends of QR0.60 per share (QR0.50 in
2012). (QE)
MRDS postpones results for FY2013 – Mazaya Qatar Real
Estate Development Company (MRDS) announced that the
date for approving MRDS‟ annual financial statements for
FY2013 has been postponed. (QE)
Page 2 of 5
3. Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers
Top 5 Decliners
0.0%
420.0%
395.0%
-7.0%
280.0%
-7.0%
-8.4%
140.0%
Salam
International
Investment
Qatar Islamic
Bank
Milaha
-6.7%
Aamal
-8.3%
-14.0%
6.1%
5.8%
Medicare
Group
Al Khaleej
Takaful
Insurance
4.9%
-17.5%
4.1%
0.0%
Mesaieed
Petrochemical
Holding
Company
Gulf
Qatar National
International
Cement
Services
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE); Note: MPHC offer price assumed at QR10.00 per share
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million)
-21.0%
Widam Food
Co.
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
1,200.0
24.0
944.3
16.2
800.0
16.0
412.1
400.0
7.5
8.0
276.2
213.5
5.7
4.2
164.0
0.0
3.8
Barwa Real
Estate
Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)
0.0
Mesaieed
Petrochemical
Holding
Company
Industries
Qatar
Commercial
Bank of Qatar
QNB Group
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
25.00%
80%
11.07%
60%
Mesaieed
Petrochemical
Holding
Company
Vodafone
Qatar
United
Development
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded
100%
Gulf
International
Services
Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
230
19.25%
19.54%
Non-Qatari
1,107
10.62%
1,337
16.48%
40%
44.39%
53.65%
(230)
20%
Qatari
2,600
2,370
0%
Buy
Sell
Qatari Individuals
Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals
Non-Qatari Institutions
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
(500)
-
500
Net Investment
1,000
1,500
Total Sold
2,000
2,500
3,000
Total Bought
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Page 3 of 5
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The index started the week on a bullish note; however, the rally was short-lived as selling pressure in the last three trading sessions pulled it below the
11,800.0 psychological level. However, the index has immediate support at 11,754.45. A drop below this level may provide bearish implications as well as a
downside target of 11,660.0. Any sustained weakness below this level may drag the index further down to test 11,520.0, which is also in proximity to the 21day moving average. On the flip side, if the index manages to proceed above the 11,800.0 level, the possibility of a further advance toward 11,915.72
cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators suggest that the index may witness retracement with a bearish divergence on the RSI line
and the MACD, which is leveling off the signal line and could show a bearish crossover this week if the weakness continues. Thus, investors should
exercise caution.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Page 4 of 5
5. Price % Change 5(Feb 27)
Day
Company Name
195.00
Qatar National Bank
% Change
YTD
0.00
Market Cap.
QR Million
TTM P/E
P/B
Div. Yield
13.37
136,447
14.4
2.6
3.6
9.71
17,887
13.4
1.5
5.3
Qatar Islamic Bank
75.70
(7.00)
Commercial Bank of Qatar
77.90
3.87
10.03
19,276
12.0
1.2
7.7
Doha Bank
67.00
(1.18)
15.12
17,311
11.6
1.5
6.2
Al Ahli Bank
50.90
(1.39)
20.31
8,409
16.0
2.4
4.5
Qatar International Islamic Bank
75.30
1.48
22.04
11,398
15.2
2.1
4.6
Masraf Al Rayan
38.95
(0.26)
24.44
29,213
17.2
2.8
2.6
Al Khaliji Bank
21.20
(1.85)
6.05
7,632
13.9
1.4
4.7
National Leasing
29.35
0.51
(2.65)
1,452
16.7
1.1
5.1
Dlala Holding
20.86
0.77
(5.61)
463
N/M
2.1
N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment
12.40
0.00
(0.96)
391
19.7
1.2
4.0
Islamic Holding Group
44.00
3.53
(4.35)
176
19.5
3.0
3.9
250,055
Banking and Financial Services
Zad Holding
70.00
(1.41)
0.72
916
9.3
0.7
5.7
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices
13.89
(0.79)
0.29
160
N/M
0.8
N/A
Salam International Investment
12.94
(8.36)
Medicare Group
65.80
6.13
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution
41.00
(4.21)
337.00
Qatar Fuel
2.43
42.10
Al Meera Consumer Goods
(17.45)
151.00
Qatar Meat and Livestock
(2.27)
(0.54)
1,479
13.0
0.9
7.7
25.33
1,852
30.1
2.4
2.7
2.24
234
31.3
1.7
4.9
18.62
21,894
18.0
3.4
3.0
758
13.8
3.0
9.5
3,020
20.7
2.4
5.3
(18.57)
13.28
30,314
Consumer Goods and Services
53.00
1.92
4.74
2,099
10.4
1.5
5.7
Qatar National Cement
119.10
4.11
0.08
5,848
13.4
2.4
5.0
Industries Qatar
196.00
1.03
16.05
118,580
14.8
3.7
3.9
5,160
23.4
2.4
1.8
3.9
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing
41.50
(0.12)
(5.03)
Qatar Electricity and Water
174.00
(1.29)
5.22
19,140
13.8
3.1
Mannai Corp.
106.40
2.70
18.35
4,854
10.6
2.1
4.5
(6.00)
8,460
16.8
1.2
N/A
12,741
18.2
4.4
1.8
62,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Qatari Investors Group
Aamal
14.10
(6.68)
Gulf International Services
85.70
4.90
Mesaieed Petrochem. Holding Co.
49.50
N/A
Qatar Insurance
65.10
(2.11)
22.37
10,451
12.8
2.0
3.1
Doha Insurance
24.70
(1.40)
(1.20)
636
9.5
1.2
8.1
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance
47.00
(5.15)
(1.88)
2,709
1.3
0.6
1.9
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance
40.95
5.81
12.19
699
10.6
1.2
2.0
Qatar Islamic Insurance
67.20
0.30
16.06
1,008
15.8
3.7
5.2
40.49
N/A
239,069
Industrials
15,504
Insurance
United Development
21.40
(5.93)
(5.35)
7,217
22.4
0.7
4.7
Barwa Real Estate
32.30
(0.92)
8.39
12,569
18.4
1.0
4.6
Ezdan Real Estate
16.78
(0.12)
(1.29)
44,509
N/M
1.6
0.8
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development
12.40
(1.74)
10.91
1,240
18.7
1.1
4.8
65,534
Real Estate
150.00
(1.70)
9.33
48,048
18.2
2.0
3.3
12.12
(2.73)
13.17
10,246
N/M
1.7
N/A
Qatar Navigation (Milaha)
91.50
(8.32)
10.24
10,479
11.0
0.9
4.1
Gulf Warehousing
43.00
2.14
3.61
2,045
20.1
2.5
3.5
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
Transportation
21.75
(1.63)
7.41
12,180
16.5
2.8
4.6
Qatar Telecom
Vodafone Qatar
58,294
Telecoms
24,704
Qatar Exchange
683,473
Source: Bloomberg
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
Head of Research
Head of Trading
Head of Sales
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an
offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential
investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be
reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts,
QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right
to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views
and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
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