Weekly market report

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Weekly market report

  1. 1. Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 92.06 points, or 0.90%, during the week, to close at 10,375.06 points. Market capitalization increased by 0.33% to reach QR555.0 billion (bn) as compared to QR553.2bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 25 companies ended the week higher while 14 fell and 3 remained unchanged. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the best performing stock with a gain of 5.11%; the stock is up 32.93% year-todate (YTD). Al Ahli Bank (ABQK) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 4.55%; the stock is still up 7.14% YTD. 10,400 25,000,000 10,353.15 10,325.72 10,341.07 10,300 12,500,000 10,268.69 10,200 0 24-Nov Regional Indices Qatar (QE)* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Oman## Bahrain Close 10,375.06 2,945.91 3,849.84 8,325.28 7,785.48 6,726.29 1,208.55 553,188.4 0.3 82.0 (1.9) 31,836 35,140 (9.4) 42 42 0.0 25:14 23:18 – Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Market Breadth Market Indices Close Total Return 14,823.59 All Share Index 2,582.45 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,446.53 Industrials 3,402.94 Transportation 1,942.49 Real Estate 1,995.09 Insurance 2,365.07 Telecoms 1,454.25 Consumer 5,980.53 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,031.88 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance WTD% 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.0 3.1 0.7 0.9 (0.2) (0.1) 1.7 Chg. % (11.8) MTD% 5.3 4.5 4.5 5.8 4.2 6.6 1.7 2.4 1.6 6.3 YTD% 31.1 28.2 25.5 29.6 44.9 23.7 20.4 36.6 28.1 21.9 4.0% 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% (1.0%) (0.1%) (3.5%) (0.7%) Kuwait (0.7%) Oman The GCC markets were mixed during the week. Dubai‟s benchmark index was the top performer, surging by 1.9% WoW; it is up 81.6% YTD. On the other hand, the Kuwait benchmark index was down 0.7% WoW. 555,026.7 80.4 Value Traded (QR mn) Week ended Nov 21, 2013 2,596.3 Saudi Arabia Foreign institutions turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR100.1mn versus net buying of QR195.0mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR98.2mn vs. net selling of QR132.7mn the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR29.8mn vs. net buying of QR22.6mn in the prior week. Qatari retailer investors turned bullish with net buying of QR31.1mn vs. net selling of QR85.2mn the week before. 28-Nov QE Index Abu Dhabi Trading volume declined by 1.94% to reach 80.4mn shares vs. 82.0mn shares in the prior week. The number of transaction fell by 9.40% to reach 31,836 transactions versus 35,140 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 32.32% of the total. 27-Nov Week ended Nov 28, 2013 2,290.2 Market Indicators Bahrain Trading value during the week decreased by 11.79% to reach QR2.3bn vs. QR2.6bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services led the trading value during the week, accounting for 28.3% of the total equity trading value. 26-Nov Volume Qatar On the other hand, Ooredoo (ORDS) dragged the index down by 9.8 points WoW. During the week Ooredoo raised $1.25bn through sukuk. According to the management, the proceeds from this issue will be used for general corporate purposes such as refinancing of existing debt. We note that the stock has been a significant outperformer this year (up 31.15% YTD). 25-Nov Dubai Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) was the biggest contributor to the QE Index’s weekly gain. The stock contributed 31.5 points to the index‟s weekly gain; MARK is up 3.13% week-over-week (WoW). Qatar Gas Transport Company or Nakilat (QGTS) was the second biggest contributor adding 18.2 points; the stock gained 3.94% WoW. 10,375.06 WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield 0.9 1.9 0.5 (0.1) (0.7) (0.7) 0.6 5.5 0.8 0.1 3.5 (2.0) 0.8 0.6 24.1 81.6 46.3 22.4 31.2 16.8 13.4 628.97 1,121.04 424.33 4,350.79 505.28 124.81 6.56 152,465.8 70,204.96 110,441.3 450,676.8# 110,460.3 24,072.2 49,472.1 13.2 17.4 10.6 17.1 18.0 10.7 8.2 1.8 1.2 1.3 2.1 1.3 1.6 0.8 4.4 3.0 4.7 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.0 # ## Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of Nov. 27, 2013) ( Data as of Nov. 26, 2013) Page 1 of 5
  2. 2. News Market & Corporate News  DHBK to raise QR2bn through private placement of Tier I note – Doha Bank (DHBK), which is aiming for a 15-20% asset growth over the next four to five years, plans to raise up to QR2bn from the market through a private placement of a Tier I note. DHBK‟s shareholders have approved this issue. Doha Bank‟s Group CEO R. Seetharaman said this issue will raise the bank‟s capital adequacy ratio to 19.1% from the present 13.7%. The capital mop-up – which is likely to happen either by year end or by 1Q2014 – is part of the bank‟s efforts to significantly shore up its capital base in view of the Basel III norms. These instruments will be treated as equity instruments with a fixed return. Managed by a special purpose vehicle, the issue would be undertaken through private placements to Qatari institutions, and its maturity would be perpetual. The investors in this issue would most likely be government entities or other institutional investors in Qatar. (Gulf-Times.com)  CBQK to raise QR2bn to enhance CAR – The Commercial Bank of Qatar‟s (CBQK) board has received the nod from shareholders to raise QR2bn in additional Tier 1 capital to enhance the bank‟s capital adequacy ratios (CAR) and to support the future growth across the group. (Gulf-Times.com, Peninsula Qatar)  CBQK’s Turkish unit buys 99.9% stake in ALease for QR215.2mn – The Commercial Bank of Qatar‟s (CBQK) Turkish subsidiary, Alternatif Bank has purchased 99.9% stake in Alternatif Finansal Kiralam (ALease). Alternatif Bank purchased 2.73bn shares from Anadolu Endustri Holding and 115.5mn shares from minority shareholders for a total cost of QR215.2mn. (QE)  ORDS prices its $1.25bn sukuk – Ooredoo (ORDS) has successfully priced the $1.25bn sukuk under its $2bn Trust Certificate Program, which was oversubscribed four times. Ooredoo Tamweel Ltd – a special purpose vehicle established by Ooredoo – will issue this sukuk, which will mature on December 3, 2018 and will have a profit rate of 3.04%. The sukuk will be listed on the official list of the Irish Stock Exchange and will be admitted to trading on its main securities market. The net proceeds from this issue will be used for general corporate purposes such as refinancing of existing debt. (QE)  Kahramaa: Power demand to rise 10% in 5 years – The Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) said the electricity demand in Qatar is set to rise 10% YoY over the next five years. The rising demand in Qatar has fuelled the recent decision to pre-qualify bidders for the tender to build Kahramaa‟s next independent water & power project, which is expected to deliver its first electricity output by 2016. (GulfBase.com)  Public finance law on anvil in Qatar – A senior official in the Qatari Ministry of Finance, Badr Al Qaed, said a new law to regulate financial activities of the government and public sector organizations is on the anvil. The proposed public finance law aims at helping Qatar develop a long-term investment strategy by setting up a macroeconomic unit. A public investment program will also be implemented, whereby identifying state‟s major projects is prioritized and methods of their evaluation, and control of public finance performance are to be developed. (Peninsula Qatar)  SIIS approves capital increase amendment for merged entities – Salam International Investment Ltd (SIIS), which was embroiled in a legal wrangle regarding its mergers that took place during 2002-2005, has approved an amendment to the capital increase mechanism for those merged entities. SIIS‟ shareholders approved the total capital increase to the tune of QR573.72mn against in-kind shares in real value pertaining to the acquisition of several companies through mergers during 2002-2005. The value of capital increase amounted to QR170mn for companies that were acquired in 2002, while it amounted to QR403.72mn for those acquired in 2005. (GulfTimes.com)  UDCD appoints acting CEO – The United Development Company (UDCD) announced that Badr Mohammad Al Meer has replaced Ibrahim Mubarak Al Sulaiti as the acting CEO of the company. Mr. Ibrahim Mubarak Al-Sulaiti's services as Board Member of the company's subsidiaries also ended effective Monday November 25, 2013. (QE)  ABQK signs $20mn LoC with ATFP – Ahli Bank (ABQK) has signed a line of credit (LoC) agreement worth $20mn with Arab Trade Financing Program (ATFP) to finance foreign trade of Qatar. ABQK is the designated national agency for this program in Qatar. (QE)  Soft launch for Hamad airport in January, Qatar’s logistics industry grows 12% – Qatar‟s Transport Minister HE Jassim Seif Ahmed al-Sulaiti said the soft launch of the Hamad International Airport (HIA) will take place in January 2014. AlSulaiti said some flights will be operated from the new airport on a trial basis after the soft opening, while the airport‟s cargo complex would be ready for opening on December 1. Meanwhile, the President of Qatar Association of Freight & Logistics Ali bin Abdul Latif al-Misnad said the logistics industry in Qatar has been growing at a phenomenal rate of about 12% and a similar growth was witnessed in the transport sector as well. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar to export 23mn tons of petrochemicals per year by 2020 – Muntajat‟s CEO Abdulrahman Ali Al-Abdulla said planned investments in Qatar‟s chemical and petrochemical industry will enhance the country‟s export portfolio to 23mn tons per year by 2020 from 10mn tons in 2013. Al-Abdulla said the Gulf petrochemicals industry continues to be the largest producer and exporter in the world, accounting for 11% of the $600bn global market. (Gulf-Times.com)  Ashghal to announce plans for Passage of Gulf project – Qatar‟s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) will soon announce the construction plan for the “Passage of Gulf” project, which will connect the West Bay district with the southern side of Doha city, near the Sharq Village & Spa. Ashghal‟s President Nasser bin Ali al-Mawlawi said the massive project, which includes two tunnels, each having three-way road tracks, would be built both under sea and above water along the Corniche. He also announced that the final stage of the Corniche project would begin in January 2014, which involves conversion of roundabouts near Sheraton and Four Seasons Hotel into signalized intersections. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatari property deals reached QR2.6bn during November 17-21 – The Real Estate Registration Department at the Qatar‟s Ministry of Justice said real estate transactions worth QR2.6bn were registered during November 17-21 in Qatar. Properties that were traded include open plots of land, two floors villas, annexes, houses and residential compounds and buildings located in the municipalities of Umm Salal, Al Khor, Doha, Al Rayyan, Al Shamal, Al Daayen, and Al Wakra. (Bloomberg) Page 2 of 5
  3. 3. Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners 0.0% 6.0% 5.1% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% -2.0% 3.1% -1.6% -1.8% -1.8% 3.1% -2.9% 2.0% -4.0% -4.6% 0.0% Vodafone Qatar Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Qatari Investors Group Gulf Warehousing Masraf Al Rayan Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) -6.0% Al Ahli Bank Zad Holding Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Doha Bank Dlala Holding Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 300.0 24.0 267.8 18.2 200.9 200.0 181.8 16.0 162.4 157.0 10.1 8.8 100.0 8.0 6.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 Barwa Real Estate Vodafone Qatar Qatari Investors Group United Development Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 13.70% 12.87% 80% Mazaya Qatar Barwa Real Estate United Development Salam International Investment Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) (130) 18.07% Non-Qatari 738 14.17% 608 30.16% 25.87% 43.26% 60% Vodafone Qatar Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded 100% Masraf Al Rayan 41.90% 40% 130 20% Qatari 1,552 1,682 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) (500) Net Investment 500 1,000 Total Sold 1,500 2,000 Total Bought Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Page 3 of 5
  4. 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index continued its uptrend and rose around 92.1 points (0.9%) to close above the 10,300 mark, recording its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The index fell on Tuesday, but regained its losses in the latter half of the week, surpassing the 10,360 level on the back of strong buying interest. We believe the index is currently in consolidation mode, after the strong gains witnessed over the past four weeks, and may move higher to test the 10,400.0 level. However, the RSI is tagging lower highs in the overbought zone, indicating some weakness in the index. Meanwhile, the MACD has also converged with the signal line, suggesting that the strength in the rally is fading. On the downside, the 10,300.0 level may act as a support area for the index. If the index penetrates below this level, buyers could step in at the next support level, which is near the 10,260-10,220 band. However, a close above the 10,400 level may indicate a resumption of the uptrend. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 5
  5. 5. Price % Change 5(Nov 28) Day Company Name 172.00 Qatar National Bank % Change Monthly Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield (0.58) 3.61 120,353 13.1 2.4 3.5 Qatar Islamic Bank 69.80 1.90 3.10 16,493 15.3 1.4 5.4 Commercial Bank of Qatar 68.80 (0.86) 3.77 17,024 9.7 1.2 8.7 Doha Bank 55.80 (1.76) 1.45 14,417 9.8 1.6 7.4 Al Ahli Bank 52.50 (4.55) (5.41) 6,671 12.9 1.9 5.6 Qatar International Islamic Bank 60.10 2.91 4.89 9,097 12.7 1.8 5.8 Masraf Al Rayan 33.00 3.13 12.44 24,750 14.8 2.4 3.0 Al Khaliji Bank 20.00 2.46 6.21 7,200 13.5 1.3 5.0 National Leasing 31.30 0.97 2.62 1,549 13.3 1.2 6.4 Dlala Holding 21.65 (1.59) 5.82 481 N/M 2.1 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.76 0.63 3.32 402 26.8 1.2 3.9 Islamic Holding Group 39.60 (0.88) (6.05) 158 21.3 2.8 2.8 218,597 Banking and Financial Services Zad Holding 66.80 (2.91) (1.91) 874 8.9 0.7 6.0 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.67 0.14 (2.85) 169 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 12.46 2.89 2.13 1,424 11.0 0.8 5.6 Medicare Group 53.50 (0.74) 9.07 1,506 24.5 1.9 3.4 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 44.25 (0.56) 0.11 253 33.8 1.8 4.5 287.50 (0.35) 1.30 18,679 15.6 3.1 3.5 48.80 2.20 1.14 878 14.6 3.6 8.2 135.00 0.00 (0.37) 2,700 18.5 2.2 5.9 Qatar Fuel Qatar Meat and Livestock Al Meera Consumer Goods 26,483 Consumer Goods and Services 50.80 0.79 0.99 2,012 9.5 1.5 5.9 Qatar National Cement 103.00 0.00 0.68 5,057 11.9 2.0 5.8 Industries Qatar 168.20 0.84 5.45 101,761 12.5 3.2 4.6 39.65 3.93 25.87 4,930 21.2 2.3 1.9 168.80 0.42 6.16 16,880 11.2 3.0 4.3 Mannai Corp. 87.90 1.03 (1.12) 4,010 8.7 1.7 5.4 Aamal 15.02 2.04 5.40 9,012 14.3 1.4 N/A Gulf International Services 58.60 0.86 0.00 8,712 14.4 3.0 2.6 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electricity and Water 152,374 Industrials Qatar Insurance 66.50 1.68 4.72 8,541 10.5 1.8 3.0 Doha Insurance 25.50 1.19 2.00 656 11.6 1.3 3.6 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 50.00 (1.77) (7.75) 2,882 3.3 0.9 1.7 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 39.00 1.69 0.52 666 13.9 1.1 2.1 Qatar Islamic Insurance 57.80 1.23 1.58 867 13.6 3.1 6.1 13,612 Insurance United Development 23.38 (0.93) Barwa Real Estate 30.15 1.86 6.27 7,884 9.6 0.7 4.3 12.50 11,732 17.2 0.9 Ezdan Real Estate 17.43 5.0 (1.19) 1.87 46,233 N/M 1.7 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.60 0.7 0.00 1.93 1,160 17.5 1.1 5.2 43,692 16.6 1.8 3.7 9,384 N/M 1.6 N/A 67,009 Real Estate 136.40 Qatar Telecom (1.09) (1.87) 11.10 5.11 21.84 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 89.50 2.17 3.83 10,250 10.5 0.9 4.2 Gulf Warehousing 41.00 3.14 1.99 1,950 19.6 2.5 N/A Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Transportation 20.85 3.94 8.88 11,676 15.3 3.3 4.8 Vodafone Qatar 53,076 Telecoms 23,876 Qatar Exchange 555,027 Source: Bloomberg Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5

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