Future Of Internet IV | AAAS

THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET: EXPERT-SURVEY RESULTS Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project AAAS – San Diego 2.19.10

The internet is the change agent Then and now 2000 2010 46% of adults use internet 75% of adults use internet 5% with broadband at home 62% have broadband at home 50% own a cell phone 80% own a cell phone 0% connect to internet 53% connect to internet wirelessly wirelessly <10% use “cloud” >two-thirds use “cloud” = slow, stationary = fast, mobile connections built connections built around my around outside servers and computer storage Future of the internet February 19, 2010 2

Survey basics Fourth such survey – With Elon University, N.C. – reports and books by Cambria Press Experts pool – those identified from 1990- 1995 period – new invitees since 2004 (high- http://www.elon.edu/predictions/ tech organizations) – pass-along recommendations – and “friends of Pew Internet” Future of the internet February 19, 2010 3

Survey basics Results this time – 895 respondents – 371 past participant experts – 524 new recruits and friends • 15% research scientists/scholars • 14% business leaders or entrepreneurs • 12% consultants or futurists • 12% authors, editors or journalists • 9% technology developers or administrators http://www.elon.edu/predictions/ • 7% advocates or activists • 3% pioneers or originators • 2% legislators, politicians or lawyers • 25% specified themselves “other” Future of the internet February 19, 2010 4

Question strategy • Tension pairs – force choice in opposing statements • Narrative elaborations http://www.elon.edu/predictions/ • Subject choice (not “our” predictions) Future of the internet February 19, 2010 5

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/google Future of the internet February 19, 2010 6

Will Google make us stupid? By 2020, people’s use of the By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has enhanced Internet has not enhanced human intelligence; as human intelligence and it people are allowed could even be lowering the unprecedented access to IQs of most people who use more information, they it a lot. Nicholas Carr was become smarter and make right: Google makes us better choices. Nicholas stupid Carr was wrong: Google does not make us stupid 81% experts 16% experts 76% full sample 21% full sample Future of the internet February 19, 2010 7

Themes • Cognitive capacities will shift. • New literacies will be required. Fourth “R” will be retrieval…. “Extreme Googlers.” • Technology isn’t the problem here. It is people’s inherent character traits. • Performance of “information markets” is a big unknown, especially in the age of social media and junk information…. Google will improve. Future of the internet February 19, 2010 8

Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering of knowledge? Future of the internet February 19, 2010 9

Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering of knowledge? By 2020, it will be clear By 2020, it will be clear that the Internet has that the Internet has enhanced and diminished and improved reading, endangered reading, writing, and the writing, and the rendering of intelligent rendering knowledge. of knowledge. 69% experts 27% experts 65% full sample 32% full sample Future of the internet February 19, 2010 10

Themes • People are doing more reading and writing now and that has to be better than the alternative. Participation breeds engagement. • Reading and writing will be different in 10 years. There will be a new fluidity in media creation and “screen” literacy will become important. • The nature of writing has changed now, especially since so much of it takes place in public. The quality of the new material will get better thanks to feedback and flamers. • Networked information – links and mashups – are changing the creation process and consumption process. Future of the internet February 19, 2010 11

Are hot new gadgets and apps evident now? Future of the internet February 19, 2010 12

Are hot new gadgets evident now? The hot gadgets and Hot gadgets and apps that applications that will will capture the capture the imagination imagination of users in of users in 2020 are 2020 will often come “out pretty evident today of the blue” and not and will not take many have been anticipated of today’s savviest by many of today’s innovators by surprise. savviest innovators. 16% experts 81% experts 17% full sample 80% full sample Future of the internet February 19, 2010 13

Themes • iPhone, iPhone, iPhone • Innovation ecosystem will change: bandwidth / processing • There are basic trends evident now and some groundwork that has been in place for years that will yield innovation. – The internet of things is being built – Sensors will proliferate – Mobile connectivity and location-based services grow – Bigger/thinner TVs -- 3D displays – “consolidated,” all-purpose gadgets and apps – speech recognition – translation systems Future of the internet February 19, 2010 14

Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle? Future of the internet February 19, 2010 15

Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle? In the years between now and 2020, In the years between now and the Internet will mostly remain a 2020, the Internet will mostly technology based on the end- become a technology where to-end principle that was intermediary institutions that envisioned by the Internet’s control the architecture and founders. Most disagreements over the way information flows significant amounts of online will be resolved in favor of a content will be successful in minimum number of restrictions gaining the right to manage over the information available information and the method by online and the methods by which which people access and people access it. share it. 63% experts 29% experts 61% full sample 33% full sample Future of the internet February 19, 2010 16

Themes • There is too much good history and user buy-in to part with end-to-end internet to see it largely overturned. • Openness has its own virtues and those who resist it will fall behind those who enable it. • Those who took the opposite view were not necessarily happy about it, but they argued there are too many forces pushing towards more control of the internet: governments, businesses, users themselves (to ward off bad stuff) • Some things will have to be managed, especially if the capacity of the current internet becomes strained. Future of the internet February 19, 2010 17

What is the future of online anonymity? Future of the internet February 19, 2010 18

What is the future of online anonymity? By 2020, the identification ID By 2020, Internet users can do a lot systems used online are tighter of normal online activities and more formal – fingerprints or anonymously even though the DNA-scans or retina scans. The identification systems used on use of these systems is the the Internet have been applied to gateway to most of the Internet- a wider range of activities. It is enabled activity that users are still relatively easy for Internet able to perform such as users to create content, shopping, communicating, communicate, and browse creating content, and browsing. without publicly disclosing Anonymous online activity is who they are. sharply curtailed. 42% experts 54% experts 41% full sample 55% full sample Future of the internet February 19, 2010 19

Themes • The law and new regulations will give people some privacy protections even though they are required to disclose more. • There are still sufficient “workarounds” that will allow people some measure of anonymity. “Pseudonymity” will be available to people. • Confidentiality and autonomy will replace yearning for anonymity. • The rise of social media is as much a challenge to anonymity as authentication requirements. Reputation management and “information responsibility” will emerge. Future of the internet February 19, 2010 20

Thank you! Lee Rainie Director Pew Internet & American Life Project 1615 L Street NW Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.org Twitter: http://twitter.com/lrainie 202-419-4500 Future of the internet February 19, 2010 21

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Future Of Internet IV | AAAS

by Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project on Feb 19, 2010

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