~4.5 Billion<br />Mobile Subs <br />in 2009<br />
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac<br />
The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development.Jeffrey Sachs<br />
The Hype Cycle<br />Source: Gartner Group<br />
1. Pioneer<br />2. Breakout<br />3. Consolidation<br />4. Maturity<br />Phases of Markets<br />
A global volunteer network of NGOs, activists, technologists, academics, media<br />A community of practice for knowledge ...
The Use of Mobiles<br />Disasters and Relief<br />Early warnings<br />Urgent alerts<br />Refugee coordination<br />Supply ...
Functionality<br />Voice/Audio<br />SMS <br />Mobile Web<br />Mobile Applications<br />Data Collection<br />Supply Chain<b...
1. It’s all very exciting2. Are we there? If not, what do we need?…with a dose of realism<br />
It’s all really exciting…<br />Computing is not at the margins anymore, (though people still are.)<br />Communications is ...
“God Sends Mobiles”(Schmitt 2002)<br />&quot;The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development” ...
Mobiles…A Wonderful World?<br />(Positive) Externalities<br />Cell Phone Services and Development Projects<br />
Empirical Research on the Impact of Mobile Phones<br />Fisheries in India (Abraham 2007, Jensen 2007)<br />Grain markets i...
Mobile Phones and Fish Price Dispersion (Jensen 2007)<br />
Cell Phones and Welfare<br />Welfare improves with market efficiency, but how welfare is distributed among consumers, prod...
2. Are we there? If not, what do we need?<br />
The Mobile Eco System<br />Source: Rudy de Waele<br />
Key Issues<br />Incredibly promising and exciting<br />Commercial, competitive, very fluid field<br />Privacy and security...
Key Issues<br />Significant capacity issues (NGOs and Gov)<br /> Lack of capable intermediaries<br /> Little knowledge of ...
Towards a framework	<br />Additive versus transformative<br />Contextual and user-focused<br />Sustainable (unsolved)<br /...
<ul><li> Applicable channel?
 In what context?
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  • When you read an article about mobile phones in Africa today, you can’t help but notice the claims – that « mobile phones revolutionalize people’s lives Now, while GSM stands for Global Systems for Mobile Communcations, Schmitt found another meeting: God Sends Mobiles.» A 10 percent increase in mobile penetration boosts GDP by 1.2 percent.Even the cell phone companies themselves have promised to « make life better ». But is this true?
  • The introduction of telecommunications infrastructure – and primarily mobile phones – can have important impacts upon market performance and welfare in developing countries. In general, there are two primary mechanisms through which mobile phones could have a positive economic impact:As a positive externality of the mobile phone industry – ie, investment in the IT sector has spillover effects on other economic sectors.Via specific services provided by cell phone companies in Africa, or development projects using cell phones in an attempt to improve the development outcomes of the poor.An externality is a cost or benefit arising from an activity, which does not accrue to the person or organization carrying out the activity. The well-being of a consumer or production capability of a firm are directly affected by actions of other consumers or firms, rather than indirectly through prices.Also known as spillover effects
  • That’s the theory. Now, we know that theory is fine, but what about reality? An emerging body of literature suggests that this theory is indeed happening. I wanted to highlight some of the economic literature in this area – not exhaustive – in both Asia and Africa. This is mainly in two categories – first, those in agro-food markets; and second, those in labor markets. Fisheries in India (Jensen 2007)Grain markets in Niger (Aker 2008)Farmer participation in Uganda (Muto 2009)Internet kiosks and soybean prices in India (Goyal 2009)Labor markets in South Africa (Klonner and Nolen 2009Also, Donner, J. 2005. The Use of Mobile Phones by Microentrepreneurs in Kigali, Rwanda: Changes to Social and Business NetworksInformation Technology and International Development, Winter 2005, Volume 3, Number 2“Mobiles are enabling people to invest in and draw on social capital”Goodman, J. 2005.Linking Mobile Phone Ownership and Use to Social Capital in Rural South Africa and TanzaniaFeatured in Vodafone Policy Paper Series, Number 2, March 2005.
  • Comparing cell phone and non-cell phone regions in India, Jensen finds that cell phone coverage is associated with a strong reductionin price dispersion across markets, as these graphs show. If we look at the second graph, we see that prices across fish markets in the region vary widely before the introduction of cell phones. Once cell phones are introduced, as is seen by the red line, dispersion across these markets goes down – they are harmonized.
  • But what does this mean for welfare – the well-being of the poor? Here the theoretical predictions are ambiguous. While improvements in efficiency
  • Rutgers

    1. 1. ~4.5 Billion<br />Mobile Subs <br />in 2009<br />
    2. 2. Source: TomiAhonen Almanac<br />
    3. 3. The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development.Jeffrey Sachs<br />
    4. 4. The Hype Cycle<br />Source: Gartner Group<br />
    5. 5. 1. Pioneer<br />2. Breakout<br />3. Consolidation<br />4. Maturity<br />Phases of Markets<br />
    6. 6. A global volunteer network of NGOs, activists, technologists, academics, media<br />A community of practice for knowledge and skill sharing<br />An onlinemDirectory of apps, case studies, research, how-to materials<br />An innovation channel<br />
    7. 7. The Use of Mobiles<br />Disasters and Relief<br />Early warnings<br />Urgent alerts<br />Refugee coordination<br />Supply chain management<br />Environmental Monitoring<br />GPRS individual and crowd data<br />Organizing/Advocacy<br />Constituency engagement<br />Legislative advocacy<br />Mobilization <br />Getting Out the Vote<br />Information dissemination<br />Political campaigns/candidates/parties<br />Economic Development/Livelihoods<br />Payments<br />Micro loan management<br />Market data/information<br />Small enterprises (SMEs)<br />Health:<br />Disease surveillance and mapping<br />Patient management<br />Public health education (HIV, TB, STDs)<br />Supply chain management (drugs, food)<br />Telemedicine<br />Accountability/Transparency<br />Election monitoring<br />Human rights monitoring<br />Corruption monitoring<br />Budget tracking/participatory budgeting<br />Media and (Citizen) Reporting<br />Incidence/news mapping<br />Incident photo/video footage<br />News dissemination in restricted environments<br />
    8. 8. Functionality<br />Voice/Audio<br />SMS <br />Mobile Web<br />Mobile Applications<br />Data Collection<br />Supply Chain<br />Medical records/Imaging etc<br />USSD<br />Location-based apps and services<br />Bluetooth<br />Photos and Video/Life-stream<br />
    9. 9.
    10. 10. 1. It’s all very exciting2. Are we there? If not, what do we need?…with a dose of realism<br />
    11. 11. It’s all really exciting…<br />Computing is not at the margins anymore, (though people still are.)<br />Communications is now in the hands of people who have not had it before<br />Innovation is happening everywhere<br />
    12. 12. “God Sends Mobiles”(Schmitt 2002)<br />&quot;The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development” (Jeffrey Sachs)<br />“A 10% increase in mobile penetration boosts annual GDP by 1.2%” (Deloitte 2007)<br />“Making lives better”<br />
    13. 13. Mobiles…A Wonderful World?<br />(Positive) Externalities<br />Cell Phone Services and Development Projects<br />
    14. 14. Empirical Research on the Impact of Mobile Phones<br />Fisheries in India (Abraham 2007, Jensen 2007)<br />Grain markets in Niger (Aker 2008)<br />Farmer participation in Uganda (Muto 2009)<br />Internet kiosks and soybean prices in India (Goyal 2009)<br />Labor markets in South Africa (Klonner and Nolen 2009)<br />
    15. 15. Mobile Phones and Fish Price Dispersion (Jensen 2007)<br />
    16. 16. Cell Phones and Welfare<br />Welfare improves with market efficiency, but how welfare is distributed among consumers, producers and traders is ambiguous<br />Increase in fisherman’s profits and a reduction in waste (Jensen 2007)<br />Traders’ profits increase (higher prices) and consumer prices decrease (Aker 2008)<br />Increase in monthly wholesale price of soybeans (Goyal 2008)<br />
    17. 17.
    18. 18.
    19. 19.
    20. 20.
    21. 21.
    22. 22.
    23. 23.
    24. 24.
    25. 25.
    26. 26.
    27. 27.
    28. 28.
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    30. 30.
    31. 31.
    32. 32.
    33. 33.
    34. 34. 2. Are we there? If not, what do we need?<br />
    35. 35.
    36. 36.
    37. 37. The Mobile Eco System<br />Source: Rudy de Waele<br />
    38. 38. Key Issues<br />Incredibly promising and exciting<br />Commercial, competitive, very fluid field<br />Privacy and security<br />Fragmented platforms<br />Many pilots, no scale <br />Impact unclear. Much trial and error<br />Focus on apps but not on an enabling environment<br />Lack of open platforms and applications<br />
    39. 39. Key Issues<br />Significant capacity issues (NGOs and Gov)<br /> Lack of capable intermediaries<br /> Little knowledge of what works in what setting<br />Data alone may be largely useless unless it provides the right information delivered through the right channel in the right form at the right time. <br />
    40. 40. Towards a framework <br />Additive versus transformative<br />Contextual and user-focused<br />Sustainable (unsolved)<br />Driven by demand<br />Build it and they will come does usually not work<br />Localized but shareable<br />Built on open standards?<br />Built on existing knowledge <br />
    41. 41. <ul><li> Applicable channel?
    42. 42. In what context?
    43. 43. Successes?
    44. 44. Failures?
    45. 45. Critical success factors?</li></li></ul><li>Needed<br />Targeted (and outsourced) R&D<br />ICT innovation marketplaces <br />Venture funds and PPPs<br />Strong intermediaries <br />IT, mobile, data, information visualization, etc<br />User adoption studies and contextual research <br />Nokia and Microsoft<br />Better topographies (and case studies)<br />

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