5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Using risk analysis and hazard numerical
simulation models to support the design,
conduct and evaluation of disaster
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
exercises
George I. Karagiannis, Technical University of Crete, Greece
Costas E. Synolakis, Technical University of Crete, Greece &
University of Southern California, USA

2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Hazard analyses in disaster exercises
• Disaster exercises typically build on emergency operations
plans (EOPs)
• Exercise planners use information on EOP hazard and
vulnerability assessment to guide exercise design.
• Exercise design can be improved using detailed hazard
analyses to build the scenario timeline.
• Focus here is on exercise design and conduct:
– 3 exercise cases illustrate how detailed hazard analyses have helped to
improve exercise design, conduct and evaluation
– Lessons learned
– Hyogo Framework for Action

3. Exercise 1: Earthquake followed by Tsunami in
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Mediterranean Sea
• The first tsunami disaster exercise project in the EU
– Co-funded by DG ECHO
– Included TTX, CPE and FSE
• Scenario: earthquake in the Hellenic Arc and tsunami
• Similar to the 365 AD (Mw~8.6) event (Shaw et al., 2008).
• Hazard numerical simulations:
– Tsunami arrival times and inundation maps: Method of Splitting
Tsunami – MOST (Titov and Synolakis, 1998)
– Earthquake ground shaking maps: empirical attenuation relation
suitable for the study region (Ambraseys et al., 2005)
• The purpose was to illustrate a plausible scenario that can be
used in a civil protection exercise

4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Exercise 1: hazard numerical simulations
Maximum tsunami wave height map
(Kalligeris et al., 2010)
Tsunami wave heights at 50 minutes
after the earthquake

5. Exercise 1: hazard numerical simulations (contd.)
Tsunami inundation line for
Heraklion (Flouri et al., 2010)
Peak ground acceleration map for
Heraklion (Kalligeris et al., 2010b)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

6. Exercise 2: Forest Fire Emergency Response in the
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Wildland-Urban Interface
• Simulation exercise project
– Co-funded by DG ECHO
– Included TTX and FSE
• Scenario:
– extreme wildfire followed by a technological accident
– near populated areas in WUI

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Exercise 2: hazard numerical simulation
• Real-time wildfire growth
predictions used to assist
key decision-making
• Fire Area Simulator –
FARSITE (Finney, 2004)
• Outputs:
– fire perimeter projections at
different times;
– fire intensity; and
– crown fire potential effects
– effect of firefighting efforts

8. Exercise 3: major earthquake in an Aegean island
• Table Top Exercise
• Main objective: evaluate the local earthquake EOP
• The scenario was based on one of the strongest earthquakes
that had shaken the island
– The earthquake occurred in the 1950s.
– Its effects were described in EOP hazard identification section
– No detailed hazard analyses or shake maps were available
– Exercise planners had to estimate the earthquake potential effects
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
based on their knowledge of generic earthquake damage and
vulnerabilities in the area

9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Lessons learned
• Scenario presentation is more effective, which improves
players’ exercise experience and fosters participation
• Simulations help:
– determine essential hazard characteristics; or
– validate coarse scenario assumptions by the exercise design team
• Improve exercise project credibility and public image
• Hazard numerical simulations can:
– help improve the exercise evaluation process
– support future risk assessments
• CAUTION: outputs need to be developed with end-users in
mind!

10. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
• Supporting the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for
Action:
– using scientific knowledge (Priority 3)…
– to foster hazard analysis and risk assessments (Priority 2)…
– with a view to strengthening disaster preparedness (Priority 5)
• Main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the
Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in terms of
Education & Training, Implementation & Practice:
– Disaster risk assessments have traditionally been used to guide long-term
disaster prevention
– Our work implies that they could be also used to improve disaster
preparedness with a view to increasing local resilience.

11. Thank you for your attention! Any questions?
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org