Based on Comcast's recent comments that "TV will change more in the next 5 years than it has in the last 50", telcos could rule TV and home entertainement more than ever by 2020. Here’s why. Presented at the Connected TV World Summit, June 2014. #CTVS14

1. Christophe Rufin
Orange
Director – OTT TV Ecosystem
christophe.rufin@orange.com
Twitter: @christopherufin
Royal College of Physicians, London
June 11th & 12th 2014
#CTVS14
BREAKFAST BRIEFING - TV 2020
Five years that will change TV like never before

2. About Orange
One of the world leader CSPs
239M customers in 160 countries
Turnover : 41B€ (2013)
A major European multiscreen
operator
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

3. Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

4. Insight – TV in 2020
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
1
Total video
viewing time
will increase
dramatically

5. Hint #1 video usage on new media add up
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Average time spent weekly, USA. Source: Nielsen cross-platform report 2013

6. Hint #2 the boom of video-compatible devices
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

7. Insight – TV in 2020
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
2 Eyes will shift
from Free-to-air
to Pay-TV
& VOD

8. Hint #1 ad-supported TV is under pressure
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

9. Hint #2 quality content is shifting to premium services
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
You get to watch this for free! Not this!

10. Hint #3 IPTV & OTT pay video services to account for most
of the growth of TV
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: analysys mason
Pay-TV households, net additions or losses by primary platform,
Western Europe, 2013–2018

11. Insight – TV in 2020
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
3 Piracy will be
contained

12. Hint #1 convenience is a piracy killer
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

13. Hint #2 illegal file sharing can’t rival the convenience of TV
Everywhere
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

14. Insight – TV in 2020
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
4
Households will
pay more for
content

15. Hint #1 VOD and sVOD are no substitutes, they add up
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: Bain Creative UK report 2014
UK expenditure on digital video

16. Hint #2 digital Pay-TV to grow ~5% per year in Western EU
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: Strategy Analytics
Digital Pay-TV revenue forecast,
Western Europe, 2013–2018

17. Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
So, what will
the future look
like?

18. Even more screens
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Freely adapted from The Verge – “Over the top: the new war for TV is just beginning”
http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/12/3633984/future-of-tv-over-the-top

19. TV set to become a very large monitor
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Sources: Wikipedia Commons, www.planar.com
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

20. The end of set-top-boxes
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
because placing the box on top of the screen will be increasingly difficult

21. The set-top box makes the smart TV, smarter
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
Source: uk.hardware.info – Samsung F9000

22. 2014: STBs come in various shapes and styles
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

23. 2020: not a set-top box, a smart box is the hub for digital life
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

24. zz
2020: a typical Pay-TV service
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
A KILLER
“FOLLOW-ME” STYLE
PREMIUM CONTENT & MULTISCREEN SERVICES
USER EXPERIENCE
TABLET
NOW THE MAIN
CONTROL SCREEN
Premium channels
with catch-up
Wide choice of
VOD, eST &
sVOD On-demand
games
Search &
recommendation
Built-in social
features
Personal media
library
Freely adapted from confused.com – “TV goes social: The rise of the second screen”
http://www.confused.com/news-views/infographics/tv-goes-social-rise-of-the-second-screen

25. 2020 - Why the OTT didn’t win
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin

26. 2020 – What happens on Youtube, stays on Youtube
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
350 million views
4 million channel subscribers
but… only 150 000 cinema entries in 2013

27. thanks
@christopherufin
Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
TV 2020 – Five years that will change TV like never before