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TV 2020 – Five years that will change TV like never before

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Based on Comcast's recent comments that "TV will change more in the next 5 years than it has in the last 50", telcos could rule TV and home entertainement more than ever by 2020. Here’s why. Presented at the Connected TV World Summit, June 2014. #CTVS14

TV 2020 – Five years that will change TV like never before

  1. 1. Christophe Rufin Orange Director – OTT TV Ecosystem christophe.rufin@orange.com Twitter: @christopherufin Royal College of Physicians, London June 11th & 12th 2014 #CTVS14 BREAKFAST BRIEFING - TV 2020 Five years that will change TV like never before
  2. 2. About Orange One of the world leader CSPs 239M customers in 160 countries Turnover : 41B€ (2013) A major European multiscreen operator Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  3. 3. Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  4. 4. Insight – TV in 2020 Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin 1 Total video viewing time will increase dramatically
  5. 5. Hint #1 video usage on new media add up Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin Average time spent weekly, USA. Source: Nielsen cross-platform report 2013
  6. 6. Hint #2 the boom of video-compatible devices Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  7. 7. Insight – TV in 2020 Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin 2 Eyes will shift from Free-to-air to Pay-TV & VOD
  8. 8. Hint #1 ad-supported TV is under pressure Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  9. 9. Hint #2 quality content is shifting to premium services Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin You get to watch this for free! Not this!
  10. 10. Hint #3 IPTV & OTT pay video services to account for most of the growth of TV Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin Source: analysys mason Pay-TV households, net additions or losses by primary platform, Western Europe, 2013–2018
  11. 11. Insight – TV in 2020 Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin 3 Piracy will be contained
  12. 12. Hint #1 convenience is a piracy killer Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  13. 13. Hint #2 illegal file sharing can’t rival the convenience of TV Everywhere Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  14. 14. Insight – TV in 2020 Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin 4 Households will pay more for content
  15. 15. Hint #1 VOD and sVOD are no substitutes, they add up Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin Source: Bain Creative UK report 2014 UK expenditure on digital video
  16. 16. Hint #2 digital Pay-TV to grow ~5% per year in Western EU Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin Source: Strategy Analytics Digital Pay-TV revenue forecast, Western Europe, 2013–2018
  17. 17. Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin So, what will the future look like?
  18. 18. Even more screens Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin Freely adapted from The Verge – “Over the top: the new war for TV is just beginning” http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/12/3633984/future-of-tv-over-the-top
  19. 19. TV set to become a very large monitor Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin Sources: Wikipedia Commons, www.planar.com 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
  20. 20. The end of set-top-boxes Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin because placing the box on top of the screen will be increasingly difficult
  21. 21. The set-top box makes the smart TV, smarter Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin Source: uk.hardware.info – Samsung F9000
  22. 22. 2014: STBs come in various shapes and styles Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  23. 23. 2020: not a set-top box, a smart box is the hub for digital life Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  24. 24. zz 2020: a typical Pay-TV service Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin A KILLER “FOLLOW-ME” STYLE PREMIUM CONTENT & MULTISCREEN SERVICES USER EXPERIENCE TABLET NOW THE MAIN CONTROL SCREEN Premium channels with catch-up Wide choice of VOD, eST & sVOD On-demand games Search & recommendation Built-in social features Personal media library Freely adapted from confused.com – “TV goes social: The rise of the second screen” http://www.confused.com/news-views/infographics/tv-goes-social-rise-of-the-second-screen
  25. 25. 2020 - Why the OTT didn’t win Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin
  26. 26. 2020 – What happens on Youtube, stays on Youtube Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin 350 million views 4 million channel subscribers but… only 150 000 cinema entries in 2013
  27. 27. thanks @christopherufin Connected TV Summit - Orange - @christopherufin TV 2020 – Five years that will change TV like never before

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