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LUMA's Upfront Summit Keynote: "The Future of TV"

LUMA Partners presents “The Future of TV,” as presented at the Upfront Summit conference on February 4, 2016. This presentation reviews some of the key topics discussed at the conference: the rise of digital video, the traditional TV model, and convergent video.

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Terence Kawaja LUMApartners
The Future
of TV
The First Half of My Career Was in TV
The Second Half Was in Digital
The Third Half? Convergent TV
The Third Half? Convergent TV
Too Early!
January 2001
merged with
LUMA is a Leading Authority on Convergent TV
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LUMA's Upfront Summit Keynote: "The Future of TV"

  • 2. The First Half of My Career Was in TV
  • 3. The Second Half Was in Digital
  • 4. The Third Half? Convergent TV
  • 5. The Third Half? Convergent TV Too Early! January 2001 merged with
  • 6. LUMA is a Leading Authority on Convergent TV Over 600,000 Views
  • 8. Hours   28%   Source: eMarketer, comScore Video Metrix December 2015 U.S.  Digital  Video  Proper5es     Ranked  by  Unique  Video  Viewers   Average  Time  Spent  per  Day     with  Digital  Video  by  Device  in  U.S.   YouTube Has Dominated the Rise of Digital Video 0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.6   0.7   0.8   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   Tablet   Smartphone   Desktop   Other  
  • 9. But Now It’s Not the Only Game in Town
  • 10. Facebook Auto-Play Videos are Ubiquitous 75%From Mobile 8 Billion Daily Views
  • 11. Mobile Apps Bring Live Content to Your Fingertips
  • 12. Snapchat Has Built Mobile-First Advertising
  • 13. Publishers of All Kinds Are Investing in Video
  • 14. There Just isn’t Enough Supply! Display  Ad  CPM   $1.90   Video  Ad  CPM   $24.60   Source: ZenithOptimedia, Note: Average CPM
  • 15. $4.2   $5.2   $7.5   $9.6   $11.4   $0   $2   $4   $6   $8   $10   $12   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   Source: eMarketer $  billions   CAGR:  28%   Digital  Video   Digital Video Spend Continues to Rise CAGR:  150%   ProgrammaDc  Video  
  • 16. Source: eMarketer $  billions   Digital  Video   But is Still Only a Fraction of the TV Market TV   $66.4 $68.5 $69.6 $72.7 $74.1 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ProgrammaDc  Video  
  • 20. 100 : 1 19   Buckets   36   ~  100   Companies   ~  400   $150  Billion   Total  Spend   $6  Billion   $1.5  Billion   $  /  Company   $15  Million   Traditional TV vs. Digital Video Players
  • 21. 100 : 15x Cash New Entrants Have Plenty of Money to Build or Buy Market Cap: $2 Trillion Cash: $400+ Billion Source: Needham & Co. estimates the TV ecosystem to be ~$400 Billion
  • 22. Screens Delivery Content 2008 Was So Simple: Traditional & Digital Silos
  • 23. Delivery Screens Content Second Screen Chromecast /Airplay Partnerships “Netflix + Disney” Convergence Begins with Device Proliferation
  • 25. Final Late Night Episode Evolution of Top Rated Show Most Viewed Episode 1993 1990 1992 80MM 52MM 38MM TraditionalTV ContentModel
  • 26. Final Late Night Episode Evolution of Top Rated Show Most Viewed Episode 1993 2007 1990 2013 1992 2009 80MM 30MM 52MM 8MM 4MM 38MM Crosschanneldevices killedthetelevisionstar!
  • 27. Big $$$ A18-49 Reach Incremental Budget A25-54 Reach Paying 30-50% more for .5-1% more reach?! TRP Source: Needham & Co. , Nielsen Incremental Cost Per Reach Point Incremental is Increasingly Expensive on TV!
  • 28. Slack in Demand for Upfront Buys
  • 29. Selling Points Reversed in 2015 Upfronts   NewFronts   Selling  Premium  Content   Selling  Data-­‐Driven  Approach  
  • 30. Selling Points Reversed in 2015 Selling  Data-­‐Driven  Approach   Selling  Premium  Content   Upfronts   NewFronts  
  • 31. Now TV is Being Aggressive with Data Credit  Card  Data   Subscriber  Data   Target  Audience   Yogurt  Buyers   Frozen  Snack  Buyers   Wireless  Data  Users   Inspired by WSJ
  • 32. Digital is Increasing Investment in Original Content Everyone  is  gePng  in  on  the  game   ?  
  • 33. OTT/CTV Delivery Screens Content Partnerships “Netflix + Disney” Convergent TV Through OTT Distribution
  • 34. OTT Options Are Growing $50-­‐$70   $8   $9   $20   $99/year   $15   $6   Average  Basic  Cable  Packages   ~$120   Source: NPD Group $15   Stream
  • 35. -­‐60%   -­‐50%   -­‐40%   -­‐30%   -­‐20%   -­‐10%   0%   10%   20%   30%   TV’s Year of Doom Note:  Market  Data  as  of  1/27/16   (2%)   12%   (23%)   (24%)   (14%)   (45%)   (28%)  
  • 36. Perception vs. Reality in Addressable TV Linear  TV   Programma5c  TV   Percep5on   Reality   Linear  TV   Addressable     Linear  TV   Video  On     Demand   (VOD)   Over  The  Top   (OTT)   Digital     Video   Programma5c  TV  
  • 37. Total  US  TV  &  Video  Market:  100%     Digital  Video:  10%   RTB:  1%   Ø  The  winners  will  provide   tools  that  help  the  TV  AND   Digital  stakeholders   Focus on the 100% Opportunity Ø  RTB  is  a`racDng  a  small   fracDon  of  the  Video  Market  
  • 38. Marketer Agency MVPD Network Ø  Premium  supply  /  content  on  digital   Ø  Consistent  raDngs  across  plaaorms   Ø  Accurate  ROI  analysis   Ø  Strategic  planning   Ø  One  plaaorm  for  campaigns  on  TV  and  digital   Ø  ProgrammaDc  workflow  and  RTB  capabiliDes   Ø  Cross  device  matching   Ø  Audience  extension   Ø  ProgrammaDc  capabiliDes  for  TV  supply   Ø  Yield  management  for  TV  and  Digital  content   Ø  A`ract  TV  quality  adverDsing  spend  for  digital  content   What TV Stakeholders Want
  • 39. Programmatic Platforms Targeting Technology Attribution / Analytics Low-Cost Production Integrated Workflow Premium Content Brand Relationships Convergence of Two Worlds
  • 40. 33 Video Deals in the Last 2 Years
  • 41. 33 Video Deals in the Last 2 Years ~$700 Million
  • 42. Convergent TV via M&A CONTENT   DISTRIBUTION   MONETIZATION   Media
  • 43. Major Strategics Now Focused on Convergent TV
  • 44. A Reflection of a Growing Buyer Pool MARKETING  TECH   CRM  SOFTWARE   INTERNET  ORIGINALS   TELCO   MARKETING   MEDIA   DATA   CONSUMER  INTERNET   TECH  SERVICES   COMMERCE   Right Time Decisioning of Consumer Data     (Ad Tech and MarTech)
  • 45. Potential TV Game Changers Regulation Technology Content
  • 46. LUMA’s Commitment to LA Over 170 Exits in past 2 years
  • 47. LUMA’s Commitment to LA Over 170 Exits in past 2 years December 2011 December 2015 has been acquired by The undersigned acted as co-financial advisor to MarketShare Partners. December 2011 December 2015 has been acquired by The undersigned acted as co-financial advisor to MarketShare Partners. December 2011 July 2014 The undersigned acted as exclusive financial advisor to Adconion Media Group Limited has been acquired by a subsidiary of December 2011 December 2015 The undersigned acted as co-financial advisor to MarketShare Partners. December 2011 April 2014 LUMA Securi=es, a wholly-owned broker-dealer of the undersigned, acted as underwri=ng co-manager to The Rubicon Project, Inc. Ini4al Public Offering $116,799,660 December 2011 September 2015 has been acquired by Principals currently at the undersigned acted as exclusive financial advisor to Looksery, Inc.
  • 48. New York | San Francisco | Palo Alto Access. Insights. Execution. LUMApartners Thank you! @tkawaja