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Future of TV
The document discusses how the future of television is changing rapidly due to disruptive technologies and consumer behavior shifts. It argues that bundled television will go the way of albums as distribution models are disrupted and consumer choice increases. New digital producers are emerging on platforms like YouTube, driving down production costs and allowing for more direct relationships with viewers. While most television executives do not yet see the changes, the document predicts that the disruption of television will accelerate significantly in 2012.
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Future of TV
- 1. The Future ofTelevision Mark Suster PaidContent – November 2011 @msuster
- 2. So Interactive, DigitalTV is Right Around the Corner?
- 3. Nobody Believes itBecause We’ve Cried Wolf for 20 Years
- 4. This Has LedOur Industry to Become Frogs Boiling in Water Metaphor: put a frog into boiling water and it jumps out, put it in cold water & slowly turn up temperature and it boils to death
- 5. “We Overestimate theImpact of Tech on 3-year Horizon & Underestimate on 10-year” - Bill Gates
- 6. I Would ArgueThat the Massive Change in Television Will Accelerate in 2012 1. Massive decrease in costs of capturing & processing video 2. Significant penetration in broadband, increases in Wi-Fi 3. Huge advances in compression 4. Massively distributed advertising market 5. Decreasing traditional paychecks to creative talent 6. Consumer behavior has made Internet video a reality
- 7. Bundled TV Willbe the Album of the Future
- 8. And The SameForces that Killed the Album Will Kill “The Bundle” 1. Disruptive technology that breaks the distribution strangle hold of content 2. Massive costs reductions in capture, process & distribute 3. Consumer choice
- 9. YouTube is theNew Comcast … And Notice the Change in Branding
- 10. And My Betis that The Future Distributors Are Not Who Most TV Execs Think
- 11.
- 12. Americans watch 5.3hours of TV / Day TVReading < 1 Hour 5.3 Hours Media Patterns Online 3 Hours
- 13. It’s Not JustDogs on Skateboards Anymore
- 14. A Disruptive Breedof Digital Content Producer Has Emerged UGC Network TVYouTube TV Production Costs/Minute $100-400 $6,000-8,000 $50-100k
- 15. These 4 CompaniesAlone Doing > 3 Billion Video Views / Month YouTube TV Costs/ Minute
- 16. With YouTube ContentDistribution is Much More Predictable and Content Producers Have a Direct Relationship with Viewers ViewerViewer Subscribers Email Lists Facebook Connect YouTubeYouTubeProducerProducer
- 17. Youth Demo Already1/3rd of Time Online Watching Video Streaming Video Other Surfing
- 18. And Revenue BecomingSubstantive
- 19. How Mainstream? 86%of All Internet Watch Online Video
- 20. Aug 11 42 billionviews 185 million viewers 228 videos / person 17 hours
- 21. 91% of HouseholdsStill Pay for TV (91%)
- 22. This Market DisruptionWill Be Enormous – And It’s Accelerating Now
- 23. Don’t Be aFrog. Get Ahead of the Curve.
- 24.