This presentation was given by CIFOR scientist Louis Verchot on 28 November 2012 at a joint CIFOR and GOFC-GOLD (Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics) UNFCCC COP18 side-event in Doha, Qatar.

1. MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and
Forest Degradation Drivers
Louis Verchot, Noriko Hosonuma, Veronique De Sy, Martin Herold,
Ruth De Fries, Maria Brockhaus, Arild Angelsen, Erika Romijn

2. Importance of monitoring drivers
• Essential for REDD+ strategy and policy
design
• Link to policy and implementation of
REDD+ and broader development
objectives
• Prioritize engagement with non-forest
sectors
–> Requires resources and efforts additional
to estimation and reporting of GHG
emissions
–> Countries should integrate and combine
capacity development efforts for
monitoring drivers with on-going national
forest monitoring for REDD+

3. Definitions
• Proximate/direct causes: human activities or immediate
actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon
 Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture,
mining, infrastructure and urban expansion
 Forest degradation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest,
fuelwood collection and charcoal production
• Underlying/indirect causes: complex interactions of
fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and
technological processes that are often distant from their
area of impact

4. An assessment of deforestation and
forest degradation drivers
• Country REDD+ readiness activities – first
inventory of what countries identify as
relevant and important drivers
• Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate
drivers of deforestation of 25 tropical
countries (Mathews et al., 2010), CIFOR
country profiles and the UNFCCC national
communications
• Nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46
non-Annex I countries (78% of total forest
area in 2010)
• Countries have limited on the drivers at the
national level and are only just beginning
efforts

5. Changes of Deforestation Drivers:
Important for assessing historical deforestation
Phase1 Phase2 Phase3 Phase4
Pre Early Late Post
Transition Transition Transition Transition
Forest Cover (%)
Time
Using national data from 46 countries: REDD-related data and
publications
THINKING beyond the canopy

6. Classification of countries by forest transition phases
Forest transition phases
Pre Early Late Post
Distribution of 99 countries: Pre: 9, early: 48, late: 33, post: 10

7. Validation of the forest transition model

8. Deforestation/degradation drivers for each continent
AMERICA AFRICA ASIA
-1% -2%
-2% -4%
-7%
-11%
-10%
-13% -39% -7% -41%
Deforestation -36%
-57%
-35% -37%
4%
4%
8% 7%
6%
17% 26%
20%
Degradation 9%
70% 67%
62%
Deforestation driver Forest degradation driver
THINKING beyond the canopy

9. Changes of Deforestation Drivers
Deforested-area ratio of Deforested area
deforestation drivers km2
100% 700 Urban expansion
600 Infrastructure
80%
500
60% Mining
400
40% 300 Agriculture
200 (subsistence)
(local-slash & burn)
20% Agriculture
100 (commercial)
0% 0
pre early late post pre early late post
Distribution of 46 countries - Pre: 7, early: 23, late: 12, post: 4
 Agriculture (commercial) is 45%, agriculture (local/subsistence) 38%, mining 7%,
infrastructure 8%, urban expansion 3% and only agriculture make up 83% of total
 Ratio of mining is decreasing and urban expansion is relatively increasing over time
THINKING beyond the canopy

10. Indirect or underlying drivers
• Economic growth Future
– Based on export of primary
commodities
• Population growth / Urban growth
• Demand for timber and agricultural
products
• Countries (31 national REDD+ R-PPs):
– Weak forest sector governance and
institutions, conflicting policies beyond
forest sector and illegal activity (93%)
– Population growth (51%)
– Poverty and insecure tenure (both 48%)

11. Forest carbon stock impact of different activities
Human induced disturbance
Primary forest causing loss of forest: fire, clearing, selective extraction, …
Further disturbances:
Carbon stock
Prevented regrowth
Fire/storm/pests
Agroforestry
Deforestation
Time

12. Conclusions from this study
 Agriculture is the main deforestation driver (~ 80 %)
 Major degradation drivers for LAC and Asia is logging (~70%)
 Fuel-wood/charcoal are the main degradation drivers for Africa
 Impact for monitoring: each deforestation/degradation process
requires specific monitoring
 Countries have limited data on drivers at the national level
 Drivers of the “+” the carbon sinks are largely unknown