MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers

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This presentation was given by CIFOR scientist Louis Verchot on 28 November 2012 at a joint CIFOR and GOFC-GOLD (Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics) UNFCCC COP18 side-event in Doha, Qatar.

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MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers

  1. 1. MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and Forest Degradation DriversLouis Verchot, Noriko Hosonuma, Veronique De Sy, Martin Herold, Ruth De Fries, Maria Brockhaus, Arild Angelsen, Erika Romijn
  2. 2. Importance of monitoring drivers• Essential for REDD+ strategy and policy design• Link to policy and implementation of REDD+ and broader development objectives• Prioritize engagement with non-forest sectors–> Requires resources and efforts additional to estimation and reporting of GHG emissions–> Countries should integrate and combine capacity development efforts for monitoring drivers with on-going national forest monitoring for REDD+
  3. 3. Definitions• Proximate/direct causes: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon  Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion  Forest degradation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest, fuelwood collection and charcoal production• Underlying/indirect causes: complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area of impact
  4. 4. An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers• Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventory of what countries identify as relevant and important drivers• Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate drivers of deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews et al., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCC national communications• Nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46 non-Annex I countries (78% of total forest area in 2010)• Countries have limited on the drivers at the national level and are only just beginning efforts
  5. 5. Changes of Deforestation Drivers:Important for assessing historical deforestation Phase1 Phase2 Phase3 Phase4 Pre Early Late Post Transition Transition Transition Transition Forest Cover (%) Time Using national data from 46 countries: REDD-related data and publications THINKING beyond the canopy
  6. 6. Classification of countries by forest transition phases Forest transition phases Pre Early Late Post Distribution of 99 countries: Pre: 9, early: 48, late: 33, post: 10
  7. 7. Validation of the forest transition model
  8. 8. Deforestation/degradation drivers for each continent AMERICA AFRICA ASIA -1% -2% -2% -4% -7% -11% -10% -13% -39% -7% -41%Deforestation -36% -57% -35% -37% 4% 4% 8% 7% 6% 17% 26% 20%Degradation 9% 70% 67% 62% Deforestation driver Forest degradation driver THINKING beyond the canopy
  9. 9. Changes of Deforestation Drivers Deforested-area ratio of Deforested area deforestation drivers km2 100% 700 Urban expansion 600 Infrastructure 80% 500 60% Mining 400 40% 300 Agriculture 200 (subsistence) (local-slash & burn) 20% Agriculture 100 (commercial) 0% 0 pre early late post pre early late post Distribution of 46 countries - Pre: 7, early: 23, late: 12, post: 4 Agriculture (commercial) is 45%, agriculture (local/subsistence) 38%, mining 7%, infrastructure 8%, urban expansion 3% and only agriculture make up 83% of total Ratio of mining is decreasing and urban expansion is relatively increasing over time THINKING beyond the canopy
  10. 10. Indirect or underlying drivers• Economic growth Future – Based on export of primary commodities• Population growth / Urban growth• Demand for timber and agricultural products• Countries (31 national REDD+ R-PPs): – Weak forest sector governance and institutions, conflicting policies beyond forest sector and illegal activity (93%) – Population growth (51%) – Poverty and insecure tenure (both 48%)
  11. 11. Forest carbon stock impact of different activities Human induced disturbance Primary forest causing loss of forest: fire, clearing, selective extraction, … Further disturbances:Carbon stock Prevented regrowth Fire/storm/pests Agroforestry Deforestation Time
  12. 12. Conclusions from this study Agriculture is the main deforestation driver (~ 80 %) Major degradation drivers for LAC and Asia is logging (~70%) Fuel-wood/charcoal are the main degradation drivers for Africa Impact for monitoring: each deforestation/degradation process requires specific monitoring Countries have limited data on drivers at the national level Drivers of the “+” the carbon sinks are largely unknown

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