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MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers
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MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and forest degradation drivers

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This presentation was given by CIFOR scientist Louis Verchot on 28 November 2012 at a joint CIFOR and GOFC-GOLD (Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics) UNFCCC COP18 side-event in Doha, …

This presentation was given by CIFOR scientist Louis Verchot on 28 November 2012 at a joint CIFOR and GOFC-GOLD (Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics) UNFCCC COP18 side-event in Doha, Qatar.

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  • 1. MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and Forest Degradation DriversLouis Verchot, Noriko Hosonuma, Veronique De Sy, Martin Herold, Ruth De Fries, Maria Brockhaus, Arild Angelsen, Erika Romijn
  • 2. Importance of monitoring drivers• Essential for REDD+ strategy and policy design• Link to policy and implementation of REDD+ and broader development objectives• Prioritize engagement with non-forest sectors–> Requires resources and efforts additional to estimation and reporting of GHG emissions–> Countries should integrate and combine capacity development efforts for monitoring drivers with on-going national forest monitoring for REDD+
  • 3. Definitions• Proximate/direct causes: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon  Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion  Forest degradation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest, fuelwood collection and charcoal production• Underlying/indirect causes: complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area of impact
  • 4. An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers• Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventory of what countries identify as relevant and important drivers• Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate drivers of deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews et al., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCC national communications• Nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46 non-Annex I countries (78% of total forest area in 2010)• Countries have limited on the drivers at the national level and are only just beginning efforts
  • 5. Changes of Deforestation Drivers:Important for assessing historical deforestation Phase1 Phase2 Phase3 Phase4 Pre Early Late Post Transition Transition Transition Transition Forest Cover (%) Time Using national data from 46 countries: REDD-related data and publications THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 6. Classification of countries by forest transition phases Forest transition phases Pre Early Late Post Distribution of 99 countries: Pre: 9, early: 48, late: 33, post: 10
  • 7. Validation of the forest transition model
  • 8. Deforestation/degradation drivers for each continent AMERICA AFRICA ASIA -1% -2% -2% -4% -7% -11% -10% -13% -39% -7% -41%Deforestation -36% -57% -35% -37% 4% 4% 8% 7% 6% 17% 26% 20%Degradation 9% 70% 67% 62% Deforestation driver Forest degradation driver THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 9. Changes of Deforestation Drivers Deforested-area ratio of Deforested area deforestation drivers km2 100% 700 Urban expansion 600 Infrastructure 80% 500 60% Mining 400 40% 300 Agriculture 200 (subsistence) (local-slash & burn) 20% Agriculture 100 (commercial) 0% 0 pre early late post pre early late post Distribution of 46 countries - Pre: 7, early: 23, late: 12, post: 4 Agriculture (commercial) is 45%, agriculture (local/subsistence) 38%, mining 7%, infrastructure 8%, urban expansion 3% and only agriculture make up 83% of total Ratio of mining is decreasing and urban expansion is relatively increasing over time THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 10. Indirect or underlying drivers• Economic growth Future – Based on export of primary commodities• Population growth / Urban growth• Demand for timber and agricultural products• Countries (31 national REDD+ R-PPs): – Weak forest sector governance and institutions, conflicting policies beyond forest sector and illegal activity (93%) – Population growth (51%) – Poverty and insecure tenure (both 48%)
  • 11. Forest carbon stock impact of different activities Human induced disturbance Primary forest causing loss of forest: fire, clearing, selective extraction, … Further disturbances:Carbon stock Prevented regrowth Fire/storm/pests Agroforestry Deforestation Time
  • 12. Conclusions from this study Agriculture is the main deforestation driver (~ 80 %) Major degradation drivers for LAC and Asia is logging (~70%) Fuel-wood/charcoal are the main degradation drivers for Africa Impact for monitoring: each deforestation/degradation process requires specific monitoring Countries have limited data on drivers at the national level Drivers of the “+” the carbon sinks are largely unknown

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