Presentation made to the ISPC in their meeting in CIAT, March 2013.

1. Decision and Policy Analysis
Andy Jarvis
23 March 2013
Since 1967 / Science to cultivate change www.ciat.cgiar.org

2. Decision and Policy Analysis
• The misfits of CIAT (or the rest of CIAT are the misfits)
• Cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary team who believe that better
decisions can be made with the power of information
• Supporting functions within CIAT, and global research
leadership in specific themes

3. Decision and Policy Analysis
• Focussed on delivering research outcomes in:
o Climate change (CRP7)
o Ecosystem Services (CRP5)
o Linking Farmers to Markets (CRP2)
• Through expert, disciplinary groups in:
o Modelling
o Gender analysis
o Impact and Strategic Studies
o Policy Analysis
o Knowledge Management
o Big Data

4. Climate change:
Let’s start with our mandate crops

5. What will be the role of cassava in a
climate changed world?
• We know cassava is a resistant crop….
• …..but will it stand up to climate change?
• How does it fair up with other major staples?
• What are the research challenges over the coming
decades?
• What has all this got to do with film stars?

6. Current suitability

7. Future suitability change

8. What will this mean for cassava?

9. The Rambo root!

10. But what about other staples?
The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean

11. Cassava suitability change compared
with other staples
• Cassava consistently outperforms other staples in
terms of changes in suitability

12. Cassava’s role as a substitution crop
• Cassava as a fallback crop under an uncertain climate
(risk management)
• Cassava as the substitution crop for other staples
more sensitive to heat and drought
• Ongoing: finalizing a cassava mechanistic model to
further support breeding programs

13. Getting to grips with climate adaptation:
The right choices

14. Var. Carioca
Var. Jamapa Var. Calima
Evaluating varietal adaptation

15. Likely yield with different planting dates

16. Modelling potential losses from extreme
events with different planting dates

17. Benefits of potential adaptation options:
conservation agriculture
% yield loss
% water deficit

18. Playing out transformative climate smart
adaptation in CCAFS benchmark sites in
East Africa: When, where, how and with
whom?

19. Where do we work?
CCAFS sites Main crops Main livestock
(forages)
Maize Beans Wheat Beef cattle Goats
Borana(ET)
(96.6%) (86.4%) (33.1%) (93.2%) (77.8%)
Maize Sorghum Beans Goats Chicken/hens
Nyando (KE)
(99.2%) (73.3%) (34.4%) (66.9%) (61.2%)
Maize Beans Tomatoes Chicken/hens Dairy cows
Usambara (TZ)
(87.1%) (75%) (29%) (82.1%) (56.4%)
Sweet
Albertine Cassava Beans Chicken/hens
potatoes Pigs (63.1%)
Rift (UG) (78.6%) (68.4%) (82.5%)
(59.8%)

20. Climate smart agriculture:
tackling adoption head on
Rash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made

21. Gender Dimensions
• Why consider gender?
o To develop appropriate adaptation strategies for both male
and female farmers (to ensure inclusion of female farmers)
• Findings (Context Specific)
o Gender division of labor
o Decision-making
o Control and Access of Resources

22. Relations with the Host Country:
CIAT-Ministry of Agriculture Agreement on
Integrative analysis of production systems in
Colombia for adaptation to climate

23. Objective of the Agreement
Unite effort, resources and capacity between the ministry and
CIAT to strengthen the agricultural and livestock sector to adapt
to climate change, and improve the resource use-efficiency in
prioritised production systems
• US$8m, 18 months, 11 national partners, 3 international
partners
• “CCAFS Colombia”, 4 themes
• Improved crop models, seasonal climate and crop
forecasting, carbon and water footprints, varietal evaluation
across climate gradients
• Direct input into National Adaptation Plan for the Agricultural
Sector, and the national mitigation plan for the agricultural
sector

24. Rewarding for Ecosystem Services
in watersheds

25. Different groups want different things
• Downstream
o Urban dwellers want clean, reliable water supplies
o Lowland farmers want cheap, reliable irrigation water
o Tourists want clean, attractive water
• Midstream
o Hydropower companies want reliable low-silt water
without having to invest in large storage reservoirs
• Upstream
o Highland communities want to live better
o Citizens want to preserve highland ecosystem services

26. Peruvian case study, Canete River watershed – Current situation
Ecosystemanduse (m3/s)
River flow land uses
Water service provision
(4000-5800
Upper basin
(4000-5800
(4000-5800
Upper
(Water yield (mm))
Extensive degrading0 grazing, subsistence
agriculture 1111-1507
(mostly from springs)
Hydropower company
51-256
Middle basin
(350 – 4000
(350 – 4000
(350 – 4000
Shrimp growers
250, 64
Urban dwellers 0-50
(0-350)
(0-350)
Lower basin
(0-350)
Water inefficient commercial agriculture
Tourists (rafting)

27. Desired situation
Investment in
(4000-5800
Upper basin
productive
alternatives
Middle basin
(350 – 4000
Watershed’s Transfer part
socioeconomic of their
asymmetries might benefits
be balanced by this
benefit-sharing
mechanism
(0-350)
Lower basin

28. Research outputs and
intermediate project outcomes
• Conceptual approach:
Adopted by MINAM …
Is not only about paying for
improving the delivery of
the ESS but also about
rewarding for ESS already
being delivered (positive
externalities)
Recently presented by
Vice-Ministry of Environment
(Nov, 2012)

29. Where we are right now:
Putting research into use
• Participating in drafting national Ecosystem Services Law that
draws on Cañete experience: Final version of ESS Law before
Congress for approval
• Other case study catchments (6 others) contributing to a
systematic review of potential for benefit sharing schemes
in Andes

30. Linking Farmers to Markets
Under what conditions can market linkages be an effective tool
for rural poverty reduction for gender and socially
differentiated actors?
Iterative process of design, testing and documentation of
approaches for inclusive business models, R4D platforms
and public policies in Latin America, E. Africa and S.E. Asia

31. AMBITIOUS DESTINATIONS,
FEW ROADS
Donors, business and civil society are in broad consensus on
benefits of linking smallholders to markets.
• Many islands of success but few cases of sustained, transformational
change that benefit women, minorities and the rural poor.
• The concept is clear but HOW to achieve beneficial and sustained
market access is not.
• Need to understand appropriate roles for public, private and civil society
actors

32. Supply chain policies in Colombia CUADRO 4
10 ORGANIZACIONES DE LAS CADENAS PRODUCTIVAS:
ANALISIS DE FOCALIZACIÓN
FOCALIZACIÓN Aguacate Arroz Cacao Caucho Cítricos
GEOGRÁFICA Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI
% Población con NBI       
  
% Población Rural con
             
NBI 
Índice Desarrollo
            
Humano
Índice Gini de Tierras
        
2009  
Índice Gini de
    
Propietarios 2009    
Núm. Intervenciones
USAID (Programas         
  
MIDAS y ADAM)
Núm. Intervenciones
MADR (Oportunidades
            
Rurales y Alianzas
Productivas)
FOCALIZACIÓN Fique Fruticola Guayaba Mango Platano
GEOGRÁFICA Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI
% Población con NBI     
  
% Población Rural con
              
NBI 
Índice Desarrollo
            
Humano    
Índice Gini de Tierras
               
2009   
Índice Gini de
                
Propietarios 2009   
Núm. Intervenciones
USAID (Programas                  
  
MIDAS y ADAM)
Núm. Intervenciones
MADR (Oportunidades
                    
Rurales y Alianzas
Productivas)
Policy density (# chains) by Department Social performance by supply chain
Quantitative macro analysis
I
R (policies & development outcomes)
n
e
c
s
Qualitative meso analysis i
e
(why does the policy work /fail?) d
a
e
r
n
c
Household level surveys c
h
(what does it mean for the poor?) e
Policy performance by Department

33. Thinking through impact
Strategy & Results Framework:
Performance management….

34. Examples of Impacts
• Over 5.3 million rural households in sub-
Saharan Africa have adopted modern bean
varieties over the last 17 years, generating
benefits worth nearly US$200 million
• Adoption of improved cassava varieties in
Thailand and Vietnam has nearly reached
90%, creating benefits worth almost $12
billion over the last 20 years
• Improved forages now cover an area
estimated at 25.4 million hectares in tropical
America, generating huge benefits through
improved livestock production – estimated
at $1 billion in Colombia, for example
• Nearly 60% of Latin America’s rice area is
planted to improved rice, with benefits
valued at $860 million from 1967 to 1995
alone

35. LAC Foresight: CIAT, IADB and IICA
• Presented at GCARD2
• Resulted from IADB
Workshop March
2012, and CIAT hosted
expert meeting October
2012
• First concrete step
towards a longer term
combined effort – a
regional platform?

36. Big Data: The engine behind it all
• Great climate data
• Improved soil information
• Crop distribution and yield data
• Land-use data
• Capacity to manage and analyze it:
o Infrastructure
o Geeks

37. CCAFS Climate: 40,000 users in 18 months

38. Agtrials http://agtrials.org/
Public data!
4296 trials
20000
varieties/races
• Calibration, validation of crop
models
• Exploration and testing of
adaptation options
o Genetic improvement
o On-farm management
practices
• Assess technology transfer
options
• Build “adaptation packages”

39. Loss detections
Jan 2004 Results
Oct 2012
Latin America

40. What is Terra-
Terra-i is a system of habitat changes
monitoring that uses different mathematical
models that combine vegetation data
(MODIS NDVI) and precipitation data
(TRMM) to detect deviations from the
natural cycle of the vegetation over time
and thus antrophogenic impacts on
natural ecosystems
It has maps of habitat loss every 16 days at the continental level
with 250 meters of spatial resolution

41. Case study:
Sierra de Rio Tinto National
Forest, Sanguijuelosa Forest
Sanguijuelosa Forest Photo,
GreenWood, Feb 2013

42. Visualization tool
- Explore, visualize and get Terra-i data for Latin-America -
http://www.terra-i.org/

43. In conclusion….
• Science informed laws on benefit sharing
• Better national plans and policies for dealing with climate
change
• Breeders breeding for the right traits
• Farmers and their organizations making the right choices in a
dynamic climate
• Countries tackling deforestation head on with REDD+
(e.g. Bolivia)
• Some very motivated and dedicated geeky misfits
• And much more….

44. CIAT: Science to Cultivate Change
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