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บรรยาย War termination
- 1. การยุตสงคราม ิ WAR TERMINATION นาวาอากาศโทวชิ รศักดิ์ พูสิทธิ์ RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 2. นาวาอากาศโท วชิรศักดิ์ พสิทธิ์ ู เตรียมทหารรุ่ นที่ ๒๓ นายเรืออากาศรุ่ นที่ ๓๐ เสนาธิการทหารอากาศรุ่ นที่ ๔๑ สงครามทางอากาศรุ่ นที่ ๔ RAAF Command and Staff College รุ่ นที่ ๕๒ Master of Defense Studies, Canberra University RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 3. “ If you concentrate exclusively on victory, with no though for the after effect, you may be too exhausted to profit by the peace, while it is almost certain that the peace will be a bad one, containing the germs of another war.” war.” B.H. Liddell Hart RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 4. Concept of War Termination GOALS & OBJECTIVES WAYS MEANS PREPRE- PLANNED EXIT STRATEGY RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 5. EXIT STRATEGY - MOST DESIRABLE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN LEADERSHIP DROP IN TROOP MORALE INCREASED CASUALTIES RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 6. EXIT STRATEGY - FLEXIBLE TO CHANGES IN GOALS & OBJECTIVES EFFECTS OF FOG & FRICTION COALITION POLITICAL DESIRES SUCCESS & FAIL RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 7. THE DIFFICULTIES in develop termination strategy NATURE OF CONFLICT VARIOUS PARTNERS BROAD POLITICAL GOALS BY CILVILIAN LEADERS TRANSLATE POLITICAL OBJECTIVES TO TANGIBLE END STATE RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 8. ISSUES EFFECT TERMINATION FOG OF MILITARY ESTIMATES NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLITICAL OBJECTIVES SUPER POWER INTERACTION INTEREST RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 9. Lessons on War Termination WAR TERMINATION PLANNING PRIOR THE WAR IS A MUST NOT ENOUGH TIME & THOUGHT DEDECATED DOCTRINE DOES NOT PROVIDE GUIDANCE MORE WORKS ARE REQUIRED RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 10. END STATE A CLEAR AND CONCISE DESCRIPTION OF REQUIRED CONDITIONS THAT, WHEN ACHIEVED, WILL ACCOMPLISH THE NATIONAL STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES. RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 11. WAR TERMINATION THE PROCESS LEADING TO THE RESOLUTION OF THE CONFLICT AND THE BASIS FOR MUTUAL ACCEPTANCE OF INTEREST AND OBJECTIVES TO ENSURE LASTING SETTLEMENT CONDITION. RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 12. “ WHEN DO YOU KNOW YOU HAVE WON?” WON?” RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 13. “ CAN A COMMANDER DIVORCE HIMSELF FROM THE POLOTICAL PROCESS?” PROCESS?” RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 14. “ WHAT THE PROPER ROLE OF MILITARY COMMANDER IS IN HELPING THE POLITICAL LEADERS DEFINE EXIT STRATERGY ? ” RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 15. “ EXIT STRATEGY DIVERTS MILITARY COMMANDER’ COMMANDER’S INTENTION ON HIS PRIMARY MILITARY OBJECTIVES” OBJECTIVES” Jane E. Holl Executive Director F Carnegie’s R F A R E C E N T E R R T A of A I R W A Commissin on Preventing Deadly Conflict
- 16. “ THE COMMANDER ATTENTION WILL NOT BE ON WAR TERMINATION…. THE COMBAT TERMINATION… COMMANDER MUST FULLY FOCUS ON MILITARY OBJECTIVES… OBJECTIVES….” Lt. Col. Daniel R. Williams Civil Affairs Expert on the Joint Staff RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 17. CLAUSEWITZ’ CLAUSEWITZ’S PREMISE “ MILITARY INTERVENTIONS ARE EXTENSIONS OF NATIONAL POLICY BY OTHER MEANS” MEANS” RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 18. “ PUSH & PULL” PULL” “ ALL OR NOTHING RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 19. GENERAL POWELL THE MILITARY INTERVENTION MUST 1. BE KEPT SHORT 2. WITH FEW CASUALTIES 3. FORCE USED MUST BE DECISIVE & OVERWHELMING TO ENSURE 1 & 2 RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 20. POLITICAL END STATE SAFE & SECURE ENVIRONMENT PROMOTE POLITICAL RECONCILIATION RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 21. SOMALIA CASE STUDY RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 22. TIMELINE AUGUST 1992 CNN REPORT STAVATION IN SOMALIA PRESIDENT BUSH ORDER “OPERATION PROVIDE RELIEF DECEMBER 1992 “OPERATION RESTORE HOPE” MARCH 1993 “UNSOM II OPERATIONS” RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 23. COST TO PAY UNITED STATES - $1.2 BILLION UNITED NATIONS - $1.5 BILLION 30 US SOLDIERS KILLED, 175 WOUNDED 140 UN PEACEKEEPERS KILLED 1000+ SOMALI CITIZENS DIED RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 24. CONCLUSION CONSIDERED “A FAILURE” DEADLY, COSTLY, MUDDLED & COUNTER PRODUCTIVE CAMPAIGN END STATE TURNED INTO OPERATION BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE MILITARY RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 25. Concept of War Termination Annihilation Theory End-State & War Termination Criteria End- RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 26. Concept of War Termination Annihilation Theory End-State & War Termination Criteria End- RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 27. War Termination Theory Winner & Loser Cost Benefit Political Leadership Out with the bad ; In with the good RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 28. War Termination by Paul Pillar By capitulation By extermination or expulsion By absorption into the larger conflict By withdrawal of one belligerents By intervention of third party By negotiation RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 29. War Termination by Berenice A. Carroll With formal agreement formal peace treaties armistices statement RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 30. War Termination by Berenice A. Carroll Without formal act capitulation or surrender withdrawal extermination or expulsion RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 31. การปฏิบัตหลังสงครามยุติ ิ การปรั บกาลัง การบูรณะฟื ้ นฟู โครงสร้ างสิ่งอานวยความสะดวก การสาธารณสุข การจัดการ เชลยศึก ผู้ลีภัย ้ การสังเกตการณ์ ทางทหาร การถอนกาลังและการจัดกาลังคุ้มครอง RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 32. War Termination & Doctrine Termination Planning : Negotiations Termination Planning : Non Combatant Responsibilities Termination Planning : Force Security RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 33. War Termination & Doctrine Termination Planning : Reintroducing Civilian Authority Termination Planning : Reconstitution of the Battlefield and Military Support for Peace Administration RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 34. CONCLUSION Develop in coordination with both political & military establishment If the political leaders not provide - do it RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 35. CONCLUSION STATUS COLD BETTER STATUS OF PEACE RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 37. บทบาทของสหประชาชาติ คณะมนตรีความมั่นคง (Security Council) สมัชชาใหญ่ (General Assemble) เลขาธิการสหประชาชาติ (Secretariat) Secretariat) RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 38. Peace keeping Operation Peacemaking Peacekeeping Peace-enforcement Peace- Peace-building Peace Protective engagement RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER
- 39. กองกาลังสหประชาชาติ กองกาลังทหารเข้ าทาการรบ กองกาลังรักษาสันติภาพ กองกาลังสังเกตการณ์ กองกาลังหรือหน่ วยควบคุมดูแลการเลือกตั้ง กองกาลังสารอง RTAF AIR WARFARE CENTER