some future of AI thoughts

1. Preparing for the Future
of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
August 28, 2017
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 1

2. Questions
• What is the timeline for solving AI and IA?
• Who are the leaders driving AI progress?
• What will the biggest benefits from AI be?
• What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real?
• What technologies may have a bigger impact than AI?
• What are the implications for stakeholders: individuals, businesses
and other organizations, industries, cities, states, and nations?
• How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks?
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2

3. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems
• 2012-2019 AI Pattern Recognition and
Learning from Massive Labeled Data
• Speech, image, translation, driverless, games
• Chatbots as digital assistants
• 2020 Video Understanding
• 2021 Episodic Memory
• 2022 Learning from Watching
• 2023 Commonsense Reasoning **
• 2024 Learning from Doing
• 2025 Fluent Conversation
• 2026 Learning from Reading
• 2027-2035 Cognitive Collaborator and
Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA)
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 3

4. AI Leaders
• Who is winning?
• Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW
• Companies Microsoft Google vs IBM
• Leaderboards
• SQuAD – Question Answering
• EFF Measuring AI Progress
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 4

5. AI Benefits
• Access to expertise
• “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers
• Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc.
• Better choices
• ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most
• AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5

6. AI Risks
• Job Loss
• Shorter term bigger risk
= de-skilling
• Super-intelligence
• Shorter term bigger risk
= bad actors
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 6

7. Other Technologies: Bigger impact?
• Augmented Reality (AR)/
Virtual Reality (VR)
• Game worlds grow-up
• Blockchain
• Trust and security abound
• Material and energy systems
• Manufacturing as cheap,
local recycling service
(wind, sun, geo, nuke, leaf…)
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7

8. Stakeholders
• Individuals
• Businesses and
other Organizations
• Industries
• Regions:
Cities, States,
Nations
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 8

9. Prepare
• Learn 3 R’s – Read, Redo, Report
• Open AI code + data + models + stacks + governance
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 9
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

10. Miscellaneous other questions
• What skills for success? Rapidly rebuilding from scratch
• Learning improves outcomes
• Learning can also improve pathways
• Why not “label data” day? Stay inside if you don’t want to be data!
• Why no alien AI? Don’t exist or a “prime directive” to not interfere?
8/28/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 10