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Nsf 20180124 v18

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Future of AI and Education

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Nsf 20180124 v18

  1. 1. Jim Spohrer (IBM) NSF Visit – Alexandria, VA Wednesday January 24, 2018 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/nsf-20180124-v18 1/24/2018 1 The Future of AI and Education: Measuring Progress and Preparing
  2. 2. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 2
  3. 3. Time for educators and researchers too… 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 3
  4. 4. Social Emotional Skills - Empathy 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 4
  5. 5. IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 5
  6. 6. 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 6
  7. 7. TED Arai Todai Robot 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7 … when will your smartphone be smart enough to pass a university entrance exam?
  8. 8. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 8
  9. 9. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers – Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) – Terascale (2017) = $3K – Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) – Recognition (Fast) – Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) – Reasoning (Slow) – Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 91/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  10. 10. GPD/Employee 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 10 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  11. 11. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio n Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 11 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer? Approx. Year Human Level ->
  12. 12. Icons of AI Progress • 1956: Dartmouth Conference organized by: – John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford) – Marvin Minsky (MIT) – and two senior scientists: • Claude Shannon (Bell Labs) • Nathan Rochester (IBM) • 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess • 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM) • 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds) 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 12
  13. 13. AI Trends 1/24/2018 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 13 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “AI Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of “labeled data” and computing power available since ~2012; Labeled data is simply input and output pairs, such as a sound and word, or image and word, or English sentence and French sentence, or road scene and car control settings – labeled data means having both input and output data in massive quantities. For example, 100K images of skin, half with skin cancer and half without to learn to recognize presence of skin cancer.
  14. 14. AI Leaders • Who is winning? – Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW – Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM • Leaderboards – SQuAD – Question Answering – EFF Measuring AI Progress 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 14
  15. 15. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2017 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data – Speech, image, translation, driverless, games – Chatbots as digital assistants • 2018 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2024 Commonsense Reasoning • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2028 Learning from Doing • 2030 Fluent Conversation • 2031-2039 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 15
  16. 16. AI Benefits • Access to expertise – “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers – Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices – ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most – AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 16
  17. 17. AI Risks • Job Loss – Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence – Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 17
  18. 18. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes. • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) – Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems – Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems – Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 18
  19. 19. Stakeholders • Individuals • Families • Businesses and other Organizations • Industry Groups • Regional Governments: – Cities – States – Nations 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 19
  20. 20. Be Prepared • Understand open AI code + data + models + stacks + communities – Leaderboards – Ethical conduct • Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) – Read arXiv – Redo with Github – Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX and/or leaderboards • Improve your team’s skills of rapidly rebuilding from scratch – Build your open code eminence – Understand open innovation – Communities + Leaderboards 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 20 1972 used Punch cards 2016 used IBM Watson Open APIs to win…
  21. 21. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 21 AI for NLP entity identification
  22. 22. Courses • 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 1/24/2018 22 Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
  23. 23. Headlines • 2017 Popular – “AI vs People” – “X-Y team up to invest big in AI” • 2025 Commonplace – “People using AI to become better at their professions, serving others.” – “Teenagers using AI to solve challenges, and improve their communities.” • 2085 Resilience – “Teams competing to rapidly rebuild socio-economic-technical systems (wise service systems) from scratch” – “U.N. Pluto-base makes major discovery about nature of universe. U.F.P. established.” 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 23 IEEE 2017
  24. 24. IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 24
  25. 25. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
  26. 26. Learning to program: My first program 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
  27. 27. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 27 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
  28. 28. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 28
  29. 29. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 29
  30. 30. IBM Image Tagging 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 30
  31. 31. Today: November 10, 2017 1/24/2018 © IBM DBG COG 2017 31 IBM
  32. 32. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 32 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
  33. 33. Occupations = Many Tasks 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 33
  34. 34. Watson Discovery Advisor 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 34 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
  35. 35. Measuring AI Progress 1/24/2018 © IBM COG 2017 35
  36. 36. AI Trends 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 36
  37. 37. 1/24/2018 37 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
  38. 38. Courses 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 1/24/2018 38
  39. 39. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 1/24/2018 39 2035 2055
  40. 40. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 40
  41. 41. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 41
  42. 42. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 42
  43. 43. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 43
  44. 44. What exists in 2016? 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 44 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
  45. 45. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  46. 46. User Models 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 46
  47. 47. $5M Prize 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 47
  48. 48. “AI will change the world? Who will change AI?” 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 48
  49. 49. “These amazing technologies must be able to help people like myself…” 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 49
  50. 50. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 50 Future of Skills
  51. 51. Future-Ready T-Shapes 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 51
  52. 52. In Summary 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 52 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  53. 53. Recent press…
  54. 54. Real reading and Q&A is hard
  55. 55. Good science = Reproducibility
  56. 56. In Conclusion • Hundreds of AI Challenge Leaderboards exist and the number is growing • Can one system be built to do them all? See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc
  57. 57. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 58
  58. 58. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 59
  59. 59. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 60
  60. 60. You say you want a revolution? October 8, 2017 https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/revolution-20171008-v23 1/24/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 61
  61. 61. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators 1/24/2018 62 Empathy & Teamwork sector region/culture discipline Depth Breadth STEM Liberal Arts
  62. 62. In Summary 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 63 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  63. 63. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 64
  64. 64. Machine Learning Natural Language Processing High Performance Computing Knowledge Representation and Reasoning Question Answering Unstructured Information
  65. 65. Brief History of AI • 1956 – Dartmouth Conference • 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds • 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation • 1988 – Expert Systems Peak • 1990 – AI Winter • 1997 – Deep Blue • 1997 – 2011 Real-World • 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI • 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute • 2014 – Watson Business Unit & • True North Brain Chip • 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 66
  66. 66. Definitions: AI vs IA 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 67 AI is Artificial Intelligence, or intelligence in machines (smart machines) IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or people thinking and working together with smart machines. IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)” Cognition as a Service (CaaS): AI building blocks for IA solutions
  67. 67. Augmenting Workers 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 68
  68. 68. Startup Companies 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 69
  69. 69. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 70 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
  70. 70. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 71 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
  71. 71. Societal Grand Challenges 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 72 Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?
  72. 72. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 73
  73. 73. High School Senior: Anish Krishnan 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 74
  74. 74. IBM in Silicon Valley: From Punch Cards…. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 75 On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.
  75. 75. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 76
  76. 76. IBM in Silicon Valley: To Brain Chips…. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 77
  77. 77. 78 Cognitive Build
  78. 78. What types of digital cognitive systems? • Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people) • Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something important in your personal or professional lives • Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone votes • Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices • Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 79
  79. 79. Types • Tool • Assistant • Collaborator • Coach • Mediator 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 80
  80. 80. Types: Progression of models and capabilities 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 81 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Self Capacity & Limits User Model/ User’s Episodic Memory and Identity Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ tool assistant collaborator coach mediator
  81. 81. Partnership for AI formed 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 82
  82. 82. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 83
  83. 83. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 84 What might Reality 2.0 look like?
  84. 84. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 85
  85. 85. How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching? 1/24/2018 86 What might it look like?
  86. 86. Reality 2.0 Service Platform: polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2) do not interrupt people (P1,P2) 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 87 Service Platform CM2 P2 CM1 P1 100x 100x 100x
  87. 87. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 88 Wise Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
  88. 88. Two assertions • Machines seem to be getting smarter fast. – Agree/disagree? • People do not seem to be getting wiser fast. – Agree/disagree? 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 89 Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?
  89. 89. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 90 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
  90. 90. What is Industry 4.0? 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 91
  91. 91. History of the idea: Mirror Worlds 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 92
  92. 92. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 93 Why is this relevant?
  93. 93. I am still very skeptical… but tell me more…. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 94
  94. 94. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 95
  95. 95. Managers: Courage Required…. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 96
  96. 96. Talent required, but… 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 97
  97. 97. Industry 4.0 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 98
  98. 98. CyberPhysical Systems? 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 99
  99. 99. Industry 4.0 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 100
  100. 100. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 101
  101. 101. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 102
  102. 102. Yesterday: Servitization • Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
  103. 103. Tomorrow: Servitization • Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers • Make the product part of a smart/wise service system – Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything – Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance across their life-cycles – Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc. – Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with financing/Internet of Service – Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability – Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability • Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups
  104. 104. Vision: MMaaRRSS • Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System – “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.” – Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste) • The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
  105. 105. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 106 Explain external phenomena
  106. 106. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 107 Explain internal phenomena
  107. 107. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 108 Explain value co-creation phenomena
  108. 108. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 109 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  109. 109. Sciences provide… • Frameworks for people to ask and answer questions systematically • Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do” 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 110 Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking - “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” Proenneke: Alone in the Wilderness - To do a thorough testing, should each generation be required to rapidly rebuild from scratch? A re-makers movement?
  110. 110. Some paths to becoming 64x smarter: Improving learning and performance • 2x from Learning sciences (methods) – Better models of concepts – Better models of learners • 2x from Learning technology (tools) – Guided learning paths – Elimination of “thrashing” • 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps) – More you know, faster you go – Advanced organizers • 2x from Lifelong learning (time) – Longer lives and longer careers – Keeps “learning-mode” activated • 2x from Early learning (time) – Start earlier: Challenged-based approach – STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems) • 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support) – Technology & Infrastructure Interactions – Organizations & Others Interactions
  111. 111. Next Generation: Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deepinonesector Deepinoneregion/culture Deepinonediscipline
  112. 112. Future-Ready T-Shapes 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 113
  113. 113. Brief History of AI 1956 – Dartmouth Conference 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation 1988 – Expert Systems Peak 1990 – AI Winter 1997 – Deep Blue 1997 – 2011 Real-World 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute 2014 – Watson Business Unit & True North Brain Chip 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 114
  114. 114. Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 115
  115. 115. The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 116
  116. 116. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 117 Future of Skills
  117. 117. T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 118
  118. 118. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 119 CSIG
  119. 119. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
  120. 120. Dedication: Doug Engelbart Father of the mouse and augmentation theory 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 121
  121. 121. 1/24/2018 122 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
  122. 122. But this stuff is still really hard… 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 123
  123. 123. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  124. 124. 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 125
  125. 125. Cyber-Social-Learning-Systems Jim Spohrer (IBM) August 29, 2016 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csls-20160821-v1 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 126
  126. 126. Today’s Talk: Cyber-Social-Learning- Systems• What is the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on CSLS? – Augmented Intelligence (IA) via digital cognitive systems – White House OSTP Response(s) • Other topics to think about: – What are more of the implications of digital cognitive systems? • Tool > Assistant > Collaborator > Coach > Mediator • Transformation > Experience > Data > Software > Hardware – What does social intelligence require? Episodic Memory? – What is the impact of augmented reality on CSLS? – What are possible connections to service systems science (SSME+DAPP)? – What type of adaptive innovator with growth mindset needed (T-shapes)? 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 127
  127. 127. Augmented Intelligence • Tool • Assistant • Collaborat or • Coach • Mediator 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 128
  128. 128. White House OSTP Response(s) • AI for public good • Social & economic implications • Education to harness AI • Research questions and gaps • Data sets and model sets • Multidisciplinary research • Role of incentives and prizes • Safety and control protocols • Legal and governance issues 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 129
  129. 129. In Summary 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 130 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  130. 130. Backup Slides • Understanding Cognitive Systems 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 131
  131. 131. Understanding Cognitive Systems Jim Spohrer (IBM), August 25, 2016 CSIG (Cognitive Systems Institute Group) Speaker Series http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/understanding_20 160825_v3 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 132
  132. 132. Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)? – biological – technological – types of digital cognitive systems • How to… – build them? – understand them? – work with them? • Steps toward a next generation cognitive curriculum… 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 133
  133. 133. But first…. Cognitive Science, a young field • Society – cognitivesciencesociety.org • People – Founders: Roger Schank, Donald Norman, Allan Collins – Others: David Rumelhart, Herbert Simon, Allen Newell – Today: Patrick Langley, Wayne Gray, Kenneth Forbus, Ashok Goel, Paul Maglio, etc. • Systems Conference – cogsys.org – (JCS wishes this was part of HICSS) 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 134
  134. 134. Advances in Cognitive Systems - cogsys.org 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 135
  135. 135. Google Search: August 26, 2016 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 136
  136. 136. Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive Systems• What is a cognitive system (entity)? – biological – technological – types of digital cognitive systems • How to… – build them? – understand them? – work with them? • Steps toward a next generation cognitive curriculum… 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 137
  137. 137. What is a cognitive system (entity)? 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 138
  138. 138. What is a digital cognitive system (entity)? 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 139
  139. 139. What types of digital cognitive systems? • Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people) – Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something important in your personal or professional lives – Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone votes – Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices • Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 140
  140. 140. Types • Tool • Assistant • Collaborat or • Coach • Mediator 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 141
  141. 141. Types: Progression of models and capabilities 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 142 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ Cognitive Tool Cognitive Assistant Cognitive Collaborator Cognitive Coach Cognitive Mediator
  142. 142. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 143
  143. 143. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 144
  144. 144. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 145
  145. 145. Understand them… 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 146
  146. 146. Work with… 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 147
  147. 147. Next generation cognitive curriculum 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 148
  148. 148. Backup slides • Service systems - http://service- science.info/archives/3368 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 149
  149. 149. What is service science? • IBM initiated effort to establish a multidisciplinary field to study service systems … with a focus on people-centered, IT-enabled service innovations for business and society – based on service-dominant logic – service = value co-creation – IT-enabled service architectures – service systems (socio-technical systems for win-win value co-creation) • IBM helped establish – computer science (1945-present) – service science (2005-present) 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 150 Service systems are dynamic configurations of resources (people, technology, organizations, and information) interconnected by value propositions, internally and externally. Examples: - macro: cities, states, nations - meso: hospitals, universities, businesses - micro: households, families, individuals Reference: Spohrer J, Maglio P, Bailey J, Gruhl D (2007) Steps toward a science of service systems. IEEE Computer Society. 40(3):71-77(January).
  150. 150. What is service science? • Now over 500 universities globally teach a more multidisciplinary approach to service innovation, including: – Service management and marketing – Service engineering and operations – Service design and arts – Service public policy and economics – Service computing and informatics • SSME + DAPP = Service Science Management Engineering + Design Arts Public Policy – People, technology, organizations, information interconnected by value propositions. 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 151 Reference: IfM & IBM (2008). Succeeding through service innovation: A service perspective for education, research, business and government. University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing, Cambridge, UK. 2008.
  151. 151. How to get involved? • Weekly speaker series – Service innovation – Service education & research – Smart service/cognitive systems • Discovery summits & book series • Opportunities – Institutional memberships – Leadership & ambassadors – Volunteer opportunities – Awards & sponsored conferences 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 152 ISSIP.org is a non-profit society International Society of Service Innovation Professionals Membership: Over 1000 professionals and students from 40+ countries, 50+ companies and 50+ universities.
  152. 152. How to get involved? • Journals (INFORMS, etc.) • Conferences (HICSS, etc.) • Courses (MIT, etc.) • Funding (NSF, etc.) • Society (ISSIP, etc.) 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 153
  153. 153. What are the hot topics? • Smart Service Systems: Intelligence Augmentation – AI + AR UX (Artificial Intelligence + Augmented Reality User Experience) – Smartphones (mobile, social, secure, etc.) • Collaborative Economy: Servitization – From assets to co-creation (e.g., Uber, AirBnB, etc.) – From product to capability/outcome-as-a-service – Manufacturing as a local recycling service • Digital Transformation: Trust and Identity – Blockchain: Don Tapscott’s TED Talk & book – Big Data: Service Analytics & HAT (Hub of All Things) 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 154
  154. 154. Backups • T-shaped people 1/24/2018 Understanding Cognitive Systems 155
  155. 155. Some paths to becoming 64x smarter: Improving learning and performance • 2x from Learning sciences (methods) – Better models of concepts – Better models of learners • 2x from Learning technology (tools) – Guided learning paths – Elimination of “thrashing” • 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps) – More you know, faster you go – Advanced organizers • 2x from Lifelong learning (time) – Longer lives and longer careers – Keeps “learning-mode” activated • 2x from Early learning (time) – Start earlier: Challenged-based approach – STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems) • 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support) – Technology & Infrastructure Interactions – Organizations & Others Interactions
  156. 156. Next Generation: Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deepinonesector Deepinoneregion/culture Deepinonediscipline
  157. 157. Future-Ready T-Shapes 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 158
  158. 158. Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear 1/24/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 159
  159. 159. IBM Research – Almaden San Jose, CA USA 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 160
  160. 160. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 161
  161. 161. 1/24/2018 © IBM Upaward 2016 162
  162. 162. From App to Agent 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 163
  163. 163. CognitiveBuild 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 164
  164. 164. My Quest • What is the best bot that anyone can easily install on their smartphone and laptop today? 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 165
  165. 165. 30th Anniversary Celebration 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 166
  166. 166. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 167 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
  167. 167. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 168
  168. 168. 1/24/2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 169

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