Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Revolution 20171008 v23

1,063 views

Published on

You say you want a revolution? questions and answers about preparing for the futuere of artificial intelligence (preparing for the future of AI)

Published in: Education
  • Multiple Time Lotto Winner Shocks The System�Reveals All! ◆◆◆ http://t.cn/Airf5UFH
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Revolution 20171008 v23

  1. 1. You say you want a revolution? October 8, 2017 https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/revolution-20171008-v23 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 1
  2. 2. TED Arai Todai Robot 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2 … when will your smartphone be smart enough to pass a university entrance exam?
  3. 3. “AI will change the world? Who will change AI?” 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 3
  4. 4. “These amazing technologies must be able to help people like myself…” 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 4
  5. 5. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5
  6. 6. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers • Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) • Terascale (2017) = $3K • Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) • Recognition (Fast) • Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) • Reasoning (Slow) • Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 610/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  7. 7. GPD/Employee 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  8. 8. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 8 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprising if it takes longer?
  9. 9. Icons of AI Progress • 1956: Dartmouth Conference organized by: • John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford) • Marvin Minsky (MIT) • and two senior scientists: • Claude Shannon (Bell Labs) • Nathan Rochester (IBM) • 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess • 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM) • 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds) 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 9
  10. 10. AI Trends 10/8/2017 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 10 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “AI Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of “labeled data” and computing power available since ~2012; Labeled data is simply input and output pairs, such as a sound and word, or image and word, or English sentence and French sentence, or road scene and car control settings – labeled data means having both input and output data in massive quantities. For example, 100K images of skin, half with skin cancer and half without to learn to recognize presence of skin cancer.
  11. 11. AI Leaders • Who is winning? • Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW • Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM • Leaderboards • SQuAD – Question Answering • EFF Measuring AI Progress 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 11
  12. 12. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2017 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data • Speech, image, translation, driverless, games • Chatbots as digital assistants • 2018 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2024 Commonsense Reasoning • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2028 Learning from Doing • 2030 Fluent Conversation • 2031-2039 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 12
  13. 13. AI Benefits • Access to expertise • “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers • Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices • ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most • AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 13
  14. 14. AI Risks • Job Loss • Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence • Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 14
  15. 15. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes. • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) • Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems • Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems • Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 15
  16. 16. Stakeholders • Individuals • Families • Businesses and other Organizations • Industry Groups • Regional Governments: • Cities • States • Nations 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 16
  17. 17. Be Prepared • Understand open AI code + data + models + stacks + communities • Leaderboards • Ethical conduct • Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) • Read arXiv • Redo with Github • Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX and/or leaderboards • Improve your team’s skills of rapidly rebuilding from scratch • Build your open code eminence • Understand open innovation • Communities + Leaderboards 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 17 1972 used Punch cards 2016 used IBM Watson Open APIs to win…
  18. 18. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 18 AI for NLP entity identification
  19. 19. Courses • 2015 • “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” • 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy • 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 • “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” • Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 • “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” • Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day • Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 • “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” • Most people have 100 digital workers. 10/8/2017 19
  20. 20. Headlines • 2017 Popular • “AI vs People” • “X-Y team up to invest big in AI” • 2025 Commonplace • “People using AI to become better at their professions, serving others.” • “Teenagers using AI to solve challenges, and improve their communities.” • 2085 Resilience • “Teams competing to rapidly rebuild socio-economic-technical systems (wise service systems) from scratch” • “U.N. Pluto-base makes major discovery about nature of universe. U.F.P. established.” 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 20 IEEE 2017
  21. 21. IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission 10/8/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 21
  22. 22. 10/8/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 22
  23. 23. 10/8/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 23 Future of Skills
  24. 24. Future-Ready T-Shapes 10/8/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 24
  25. 25. In Summary 10/8/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  26. 26. 10/8/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26

×