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Aaai fs 2017 cog_asst_in_gov_and_psa 20171110 v2

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Summary of AAAI Fall Symposium session on Cognitive Assistance in Government and Public Sector Applications

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Aaai fs 2017 cog_asst_in_gov_and_psa 20171110 v2

  1. 1. Frank Stein (IBM), Chuck Howell (MiITRE), Jim Spohrer (IBM) Friday November 10, 2017 11/11/2017 1 Cognitive Assistance in Government And Public Sector Applications
  2. 2. 11/11/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 2
  3. 3. Day 1 • Keynote: Mark Maybury (MITRE) – AI Progress - saving lives, but bad actors growing too e.g., fake news • William Regli (DARPA) – AI changing the way we think - students performing like experts • Randy Bailey (NASA) – AI Pilot - deskilling is becoming a problem ("push button one, it solves everything"), partnership better with roles and responsibilities (R2D2) • Kevin Burns (MITRE) – AI Ergonomics for safety - better ways of measuring cognitive load for different types of work (science of human-machine teaming) • Steve Meckl, Gheorghe Tecuci (GMU) – Cog for advanced cyber security threat detection • Jim Whitmore (Dickinson) – Cog for Cyber Security risk analysis • Joshi (UMBC), Branting (MITRE), Chan (USC) – Cog for Fed Acq. Req., Admin Adjudication, Homeless Youth 11/11/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 3
  4. 4. Day 2 11/11/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 4 • Keynote: Ken Forbus (Northwestern) – How system can learn as much with 10 examples as with 10,000 • Alun Preece (Cariff) – How people and chatbots can increase situational awareness • Chieko Asakawa (IBM) – Cogs for blind • Matt Dering, Conrad Tucker (PSU) – Blame and responsibilities • Jim Spohrer (IBM) – A view on the future • Faruqe (GWU). Skeivik( (IBM), Watkins (GWU), Grubbs (VA), Medsker (GWU) – Cogs for health, autism, education, government
  5. 5. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio n Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 11/11/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer? Approx. Year Human Level ->
  6. 6. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers – Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) – Terascale (2017) = $3K – Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) – Recognition (Fast) – Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) – Reasoning (Slow) – Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 611/11/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  7. 7. GPD/Employee 11/11/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  8. 8. 11/11/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 8
  9. 9. But this stuff is still really hard… 11/11/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 9
  10. 10. 11/11/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 10

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