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Future 20171110 v14

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Future 20171110 v14

  1. 1. Jim Spohrer (IBM) Friday November 10, 2017 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/future-20171110-v14 11/10/2017 1 A look towards the future
  2. 2. AI to IA (Cognitive) Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2017 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data – Speech, image, translation, driverless, games – Chatbots as digital assistants • 2018 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2024 Commonsense Reasoning • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2028 Learning from Responsible Doing • 2030 Fluent Conversation • 2031-2039 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
  3. 3. April 2017: TED Arai Todai Robot 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 3 … when will your smartphone be capable of passing a university entrance exam?
  4. 4. 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 4 First consider this…
  5. 5. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 5
  6. 6. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 6
  7. 7. IBM Image Tagging – June 19, 2016 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 7
  8. 8. Today: November 10, 2017 11/10/2017 © IBM DBG COG 2017 8 IBM
  9. 9. AI Trends 11/10/2017 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 9 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “AI Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of “labeled data” and computing power available since ~2012; Labeled data is simply input and output pairs, such as a sound and word, or image and word, or English sentence and French sentence, or road scene and car control settings – labeled data means having both input and output data in massive quantities. For example, 100K images of skin, half with skin cancer and half without to learn to recognize presence of skin cancer.
  10. 10. Icons of AI Progress • 1956: Dartmouth Conference organized by: – John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford) – Marvin Minsky (MIT) – and two senior scientists: • Claude Shannon (Bell Labs) • Nathan Rochester (IBM) • 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess • 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM) • 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds) 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 10
  11. 11. 11/10/2017 11 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 A look towards the future… Cognitive Mediator (2035): Progression from Tool, to Assistant, to Collaborator, to Coach
  12. 12. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 12
  13. 13. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers – Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) – Terascale (2017) = $3K – Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) – Recognition (Fast) – Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) – Reasoning (Slow) – Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 1311/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  14. 14. GPD/Employee 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 14 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  15. 15. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio n Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 15 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer? Approx. Year Human Level ->
  16. 16. AI Leaders • Who is winning? – Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW – Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM • Leaderboards – SQuAD – Question Answering – EFF Measuring AI Progress 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 16
  17. 17. AI Benefits • Access to expertise – “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers – Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices – ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most – AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 17
  18. 18. AI Risks • Job Loss – Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence – Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 18
  19. 19. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes. • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) – Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems – Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems – Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 19
  20. 20. Stakeholders • Individuals • Families • Businesses and other Organizations • Industry Groups • Regional Governments: – Cities – States – Nations 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 20
  21. 21. Be Prepared • Understand open AI code + data + models + stacks + communities – Leaderboards – Ethical conduct • Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) – Read arXiv – Redo with Github – Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX and/or leaderboards • Improve your team’s skills of rapidly rebuilding from scratch – Build your open code eminence – Understand open innovation – Communities + Leaderboards 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 21 1972 used Punch cards 2016 used IBM Watson Open APIs to win…
  22. 22. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 22 AI for NLP entity identification
  23. 23. Courses • 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 11/10/2017 23 Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
  24. 24. Headlines • 2017 Popular – “AI vs People” – “X-Y team up to invest big in AI” • 2025 Commonplace – “People using AI to become better at their professions, serving others.” – “Teenagers using AI to solve challenges, and improve their communities.” • 2085 Resilience – “Teams competing to rapidly rebuild socio-economic-technical systems (wise service systems) from scratch” – “U.N. Pluto-base makes major discovery about nature of universe. U.F.P. established.” 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 24 IEEE 2017
  25. 25. IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 25
  26. 26. 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 26
  27. 27. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 27 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
  28. 28. Occupations = Many Tasks 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 28
  29. 29. Watson Discovery Advisor 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 29 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
  30. 30. User Models 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 30
  31. 31. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 11/10/2017 31 2035 2055
  32. 32. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 32
  33. 33. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 33
  34. 34. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 34
  35. 35. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 35
  36. 36. “These amazing technologies must be able to help people like myself…” 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 36
  37. 37. “AI will change the world? Who will change AI?” 11/10/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 37
  38. 38. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 38
  39. 39. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 39 Future of Skills
  40. 40. Future-Ready T-Shapes 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 40
  41. 41. In Summary 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 41 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  42. 42. 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 42
  43. 43. IBM in Silicon Valley: From Punch Cards…. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 43 On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.
  44. 44. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 44
  45. 45. Types • Tool • Assistant • Collaborator • Coach • Mediator 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 45
  46. 46. Types: Progression of models and capabilities 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 46 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Self Capacity & Limits User Model/ User’s Episodic Memory and Identity Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ tool assistant collaborator coach mediator
  47. 47. Partnership for AI formed 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 47
  48. 48. How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching? 11/10/2017 48 What might it look like?
  49. 49. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 49 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
  50. 50. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 50 Explain external phenomena
  51. 51. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 51 Explain internal phenomena
  52. 52. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 52 Explain value co-creation phenomena
  53. 53. 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 53 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  54. 54. Sciences provide… • Frameworks for people to ask and answer questions systematically • Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do” 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 54 Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking - “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” Proenneke: Alone in the Wilderness - To do a thorough testing, should each generation be required to rapidly rebuild from scratch? A re-makers movement?
  55. 55. Some paths to becoming 64x smarter: Improving learning and performance • 2x from Learning sciences (methods) – Better models of concepts – Better models of learners • 2x from Learning technology (tools) – Guided learning paths – Elimination of “thrashing” • 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps) – More you know, faster you go – Advanced organizers • 2x from Lifelong learning (time) – Longer lives and longer careers – Keeps “learning-mode” activated • 2x from Early learning (time) – Start earlier: Challenged-based approach – STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems) • 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support) – Technology & Infrastructure Interactions – Organizations & Others Interactions
  56. 56. Next Generation: Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deepinonesector Deepinoneregion/culture Deepinonediscipline
  57. 57. The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 57
  58. 58. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
  59. 59. Dedication: Doug Engelbart Father of the mouse and augmentation theory 11/10/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 59
  60. 60. But this stuff is still really hard… 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 60
  61. 61. What is a cognitive system (entity)? 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 61
  62. 62. What is service science? • IBM initiated effort to establish a multidisciplinary field to study service systems … with a focus on people-centered, IT-enabled service innovations for business and society – based on service-dominant logic – service = value co-creation – IT-enabled service architectures – service systems (socio-technical systems for win-win value co-creation) • IBM helped establish – computer science (1945-present) – service science (2005-present) 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 62 Service systems are dynamic configurations of resources (people, technology, organizations, and information) interconnected by value propositions, internally and externally. Examples: - macro: cities, states, nations - meso: hospitals, universities, businesses - micro: households, families, individuals Reference: Spohrer J, Maglio P, Bailey J, Gruhl D (2007) Steps toward a science of service systems. IEEE Computer Society. 40(3):71-77(January).
  63. 63. What is service science? • Now over 500 universities globally teach a more multidisciplinary approach to service innovation, including: – Service management and marketing – Service engineering and operations – Service design and arts – Service public policy and economics – Service computing and informatics • SSME + DAPP = Service Science Management Engineering + Design Arts Public Policy – People, technology, organizations, information interconnected by value propositions. 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 63 Reference: IfM & IBM (2008). Succeeding through service innovation: A service perspective for education, research, business and government. University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing, Cambridge, UK. 2008.
  64. 64. How to get involved? • Weekly speaker series – Service innovation – Service education & research – Smart service/cognitive systems • Discovery summits & book series • Opportunities – Institutional memberships – Leadership & ambassadors – Volunteer opportunities – Awards & sponsored conferences 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 64 ISSIP.org is a non-profit society International Society of Service Innovation Professionals Membership: Over 1000 professionals and students from 40+ countries, 50+ companies and 50+ universities.
  65. 65. How to get involved? • Journals (INFORMS, etc.) • Conferences (HICSS, etc.) • Courses (MIT, etc.) • Funding (NSF, etc.) • Society (ISSIP, etc.) 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 65
  66. 66. What are the hot topics? • Smart Service Systems: Intelligence Augmentation – AI + AR UX (Artificial Intelligence + Augmented Reality User Experience) – Smartphones (mobile, social, secure, etc.) • Collaborative Economy: Servitization – From assets to co-creation (e.g., Uber, AirBnB, etc.) – From product to capability/outcome-as-a-service – Manufacturing as a local recycling service • Digital Transformation: Trust and Identity – Blockchain: Don Tapscott’s TED Talk & book – Big Data: Service Analytics & HAT (Hub of All Things) 11/10/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 66
  67. 67. 11/10/2017 © IBM Upaward 2016 67
  68. 68. 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 68
  69. 69. 11/10/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 69

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