Andreas Schleicher - Making learning resilient in a changing climate - 8 February - Skills Outlook.pptx
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Andreas Schleicher presents at the OECD webinar 'Making learning resilient in a changing climate ' on 8 February 2024. The discussion was based on the OECD Skills Outlook 2023 publication, ‘Skills for a Resilient Green and Digital Transition’.
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Andreas Schleicher - Making learning resilient in a changing climate - 8 February - Skills Outlook.pptx
- 1. Andreas Schleicher Director Directorate for Education and Skills Andreas.SCHLEICHER@OECD.org 8 February 2024 Paris - SEARPN meeting OECD Skills Outlook 2023 Skills for a Resilient Green and Digital Transition https://oe.cd/skills-outlook Making learning resilient in a changing climate
- 2. The prevalence of extreme weather events is increasing
- 3. -1 4 9 14 19 24 29 Days Additional days per year of at least strong heat stress exposure (UTCI > 32°C) over 2017-21 compared to the reference period 1981-2010 Exposure to extreme environmental conditions is increasing Source: OECD (2022). Skills Outlook 2023: Skills for a Resilient Green and Digital Transition.
- 4. Exposure to air pollution has decreased but remains above acceptable thresholds 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 PM2.5 in micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m3) 2000 2019 2021 WHO Air Quality Guidelines Mean population exposure to PM2.5 in OECD countries, 2000 and 2019 Source: OECD (2022). Skills Outlook 2023: Skills for a Resilient Green and Digital Transition.
- 5. 5 The role of skills policies to build a resilient green transition 3 Adjust learning environments and develop the range of skills and attitudes needed to adapt to new environmental conditions Strengthen the environmental sustainability competence of individuals Ensure that achieving ambitious climate objectives does not lead to labour market vulnerability
- 6. 6 The role of skills policies to build a resilient green transition 3 Adjust learning environments and develop the range of skills and attitudes needed to adapt to new environmental conditions Strengthen the environmental sustainability competence of individuals Ensure that achieving ambitious climate objectives does not lead to labour market vulnerability
- 7. Achievement in PISA is lower for children experiencing additional hot school days • Test scores from 58 countries that participated in PISA, 2000 – 2015 Park, Behrer and Goodman (2021) • 10 additional school days above 27 °C (80 °F) in the 3 years prior PISA exams correlate with lowered scores of 15-year-olds by 2.2% of a SD • The effect is larger in poorer countries, consistent with lower adoption of adaptation technologies (e.g., air conditioning)
- 8. . Compulsory schooling • Direct effect on brain development • Impaired lung development • Lowered birth weight • Lowered height High-stakes college entrance exams Tertiary educational attainment and labour market sorting Adult learning Cognitive decline and neurodegenerative diseases In-utero • Reduced school attendance due to impaired health (e.g., asthma) • Reduced quality of instructional time due to behavioural and attentional impairment and school closures • Lower cognitive ability and performance on high-stakes exams influence educational and labour market sorting • Lower willingness to engage in cognitive activities • Reduced work attendance and increased breaks • Increased risk of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s • Lower performance Extreme heat and air pollution impact skills acquisition over the lifecourse 5
- 9. How does climate change influence learning outcomes and skills acquisition Mechanism • Direct • Indirect Timing • Transitory • Cumulative
- 10. Birth weight Height Lung function / asthma Behavioural issues Cognitive ability & achievement High temperatures Pollution Indirect mechanisms: in-utero exposure impairs developmental health
- 11. Direct mechanisms: Effects on the brain in childhood and beyond Short-term physiological impact on cognitive acuity Transitory temperature and pollution exposures during childhood and adulthood can directly lower cognitive acuity and performance by: • reducing the oxygen supplied to the brain • short-term impact of temperature greater on math skills Long-term impact on brain development Transitory and cumulative pollution exposures during gestation, early childhood and adulthood can lead to • brain abnormalities • reduced white matter • loss of neural tissue • long-term impact of pollution greater on verbal skills High temperatures and pollution
- 12. Indirect mechanisms: school effects School closures Sickness Lack of attention and distraction Behavioural problems In low-income regions, the impact of heat also operates through an income effect by reducing agricultural yields and lowering income, which results in: • Lower body weight (BMI) • Increased school absences … lowering further the quantity (e.g., absences) and quality of educational investments and leading to long-term learning losses.
- 13. Indirect mechanisms: high-stakes exams Decline in years of tertiary education attained Lower performance on high- stakes exams Pollution and temperature Lower probability of getting into Selective programmes Suboptimal labour market sorting Lower cognitive skills
- 14. Indirect mechanisms: adult learning in cognitively- demanding occupations Environment-related illness Discomfort and attentional issues Impaired mood / decision- making Work absences / lower quantity worked Lower quality of cognitive investments Cognitive ability & performance Caring for children or elderly who are sick Pollution and temperature
- 15. Inequalities: The effects of environmental conditions are at least 1.5 – 2 times larger for disadvantaged students… Higher exposure Disadvantaged students and adults are born in, live and work in areas with greater exposure to environmental risks. • Pollution is capitalised into housing prices Lower ability for adaptive investments Performance is ‘’higher-stakes’’ Disadvantaged students and adults have a lower ability to invest in protective or mitigating measures: • Lower home and school-level adaptive investments (e.g., air conditioning) • Tutoring Each point on high-stakes exams is ‘’higher-stakes’’ in terms of educational and labour-market sorting: • Lower ability to re-take / invest in studying resources for exams • Lower ability to capitalise and rely on social capital during the transition to the labour market. … and widen as people age.
- 16. Adaptive responses: technology for schools and office-buildings Air filters Air conditioning Ventilation • Raises math scores by 20% of SD over 4 months, for $1000 per class • Increasing ventilation can improve performance of office work by 6 percent, if new air filters are installed • In schools, offsets 50 percent of the impact of heat on learning Passive measures • Flow of air in and out of a building • Removing indoor technology • Painting ceilings white • Installing heat-protective windows Mandating adaptive technologies in all schools can ensure that low-SES students have equal protection.
- 17. Re-organising the school curriculum Curriculum flexibility High-stakes exams • Provision of online learning during high pollution and heat episodes or school closures due to extreme weather events • Allowing for re-scheduling / re-taking of exams due to adverse environmental conditions, especially for disadvantaged students • Adjusting the school calendar year according to local climate • Starting school earlier in the day and placing all math courses in the morning to attenuate the effects of heat on analytical skills • Ensuring all students can attend testing sites with adequate adaptive technologies • Shifting reliance to other measures of student quality
- 18. Science proficiency does not guarantee environmental sustainability competence Students’ foundational levels environmental sustainability competence and science proficiency % of students who achieved at least foundational levels in the four environmental sustainability competence areas and % of students with science proficiency Level 2 and above 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Foundational Science proficiency Level 2 or above Source: OECD Skills Outlook 2023, Chapter 2, PISA 2018 On average across OECD countries 78% of 15-year-old students achieved at least at the PISA Level 2 but only 33% did the same and expressed attitudes and behaviours in support of environmental sustainability. 14
- 19. Scope for improvement toward (equity in) enhancing individuals' environmental sustainability competence Foundational and advanced environmental competence levels by socio-economic status % of 15-year-old students (OECD average) Source: OECD Skills Outlook 2023, Chapter 2, PISA 2018 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Disadvantaged Advantaged Disadvantaged Advantaged Foundational Advanced % On average, across OECD countries, 21% of socio-economically disadvantaged but 46% of socio- economically advantaged students had foundational levels in environmental sustainability competence. +25pp. +19pp. 15
- 20. Want to know more? Understanding how economic conditions and natural disasters shape environmental attitudes: A cross- country comparison to inform policy making The environmental sustainability competence toolbox: From leaving a better planet for our children to leaving better children for our planet Young people’s environmental sustainability competence: Emotional, cognitive, behavioural, and attitudinal dimensions in EU and OECD countries The effects of the EU Fit for 55 package on labour markets and the demand for skills Swimming skills around the world: Evidence on inequalities in life skills across and within countries Global warming, pollution and cognitive developments: The effects of high pollution and temperature levels on cognitive ability throughout the life course OECD Skills Outlook 2023. Skills for a Resilient Green and Digital Transition
Editor's Notes
- Thank you Sasha. This event is the third in a series of in depth discussions around topics covered in the latest Skills Outlook 2023 report which considers how to build resilience given broad transformations unleashed by the green transition and the digital transition. Technological innovations can help communities adapt to climate change and reduce environmental degradation, but technology can do so only when it is purposefully harnessed and used in conjunction with broader changes.
- The 2023 was the hottest year on record and got us very close to the 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels identified and agreed in the Paris agreement. Evidence in many OECD countries confirms that accelerated action on adaptation is needed to contain future loss and damage. Investments in climate adaptation measures are usually significantly less expensive than addressing loss and damage from extreme weather events.
- To give you a concrete example of worsening environmental condition, many OECD countries have experienced a significant increase in the number of days with strong heat stress exposure in the past 5 years compared to the reference period of 1981-2010. In particular, Israel, Costa Rica Italy, Mexico the United States Turkiye and Hungary have experienced increases of at least 2 weeks per year of strong heath stress exposure. Heath exposure allows to account for other meteorological effects besides air temperature, such as relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation NOTE WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS ON NUMBERS AND WHAT THEY MEAN The figure provides the additional days per year of at least strong heat stress exposure (UTCI > 32°C), which accounts for other meteorological effects besides air temperature, such as relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation, over the period 2017-21 compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Heat stress is estimated using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). A UTCI value between 32°C and 38°C is considered as strong heat stress, between 38°C and 46°C as very strong heat stress, and above 46°C as extreme heat stress. For more information, see Maes et al. (2022). Countries are sorted in descending order of the number of additional days with strong heat stress exposure.
- At the same time, whereas improvements have been recorded in air pollution, air pollution remains significantly above WHO Recommended levels in all OECD countries. Climate change is likely to worsen air pollution because of wildfires and with high temperatures the negative effects of air pollution become more pronounced.
- The Skills Outlook provides an assessment of the role of skills policies in promoting a resilient green and digital transition. First, it considers how learning environments and learning processes can be adapted to a changing climate. And it considers the range of skills and attitudes that education systems should promote to adapt to new environmental conditions. Second, it identifies the role played by environmental sustainability competence and how this can be developed over the life course. Third, the Skills Outlook shows how skills policies can ensure that achieving ambitious climate objectives, such as substantially reducing CO2 emissions, does not lead to labour market vulnerability. Adult learning and vocational education and training can facilitate workers transition from declining industries and occupations into industries that are expanding as a result of the transition.
- In this session I will look into adaptation needs in schools and schooling and why this is critical.
- For a start, our PISA study reveals that children who experience additional hot school days perform at a lower level in PISA and that effect is larger in poorer countries in which communities have less access to mitigation technologies. Now, there can be many things that effect the causal nature of this relationship, but it should give us to think.
- Extreme heat and air pollution impact skills acquisition over the lifecourse. The impact starts in utero, shaping birth conditions and brain development. It shapes how children progress in compulsory schooling – both the conditions they experience in school but also whether schools can remain open. Impacts are especially pronounced during exams which require cognitive acuity and display overall learning progress. Differences in environmental conditions and access to mitigation technlogies can influence how well children from different socio-economic backgrounds perform in the exams, leading to inefficient educational and labour market sorting. Finally, extreme heath and poor health quality can reduce productivity and in old age lead to cognitive decline.
- Climate change induced weather events can influence learning outcomes and skills acquisition directly – for example by leading to school closures or indirectly - by reducing how effective schooling is translated in skills development. Climate change induced weather events can influence learning outcomes and skills acquisition in a transitory way– for example by inducing fatigue and loss of acuity leading children to display lower ability than the ability they accumulated for example in exams, or cumulative - by reducing how much students learn over time
- In the early years high temperatures and pollution have been associated with lower birth weight, shorter hight, reduced lung function and asthma and an increased likelihood of engaging in disreuptive behaviours, all factors that shape cognitive ability and the ability to learn.
- Transitory temperature and pollution exposures during childhood and adulthood can directly lower cognitive acuity and performance by: reducing the oxygen supplied to the brain Transitory and cumulative pollution exposures during gestation, early childhood and adulthood can lead to brain abnormalities reduced white matter loss of neural tissue long-term impact of pollution greater on verbal skills
- Distruptive climate related events can lead to decreases not only in the quantity of learning that occurs but also in the quality of learning. They can induce school closures and we know from the pandemic how distruptive school closures can be. In many countries schools are increasingly required to close because of floods, periods of intense heath and poor air quality due to wildfires. They can also induce an increased likelihood that children will miss schools because of sickness, lead to distraction and lack of attention and behavioural problem. In low-income regions, the impact of heat also operates through an income effect by reducing agricultural yields and lowering income, which results in: Lower body weight (BMI) Increased school absences
- In most countries exams are organised at the end of the school year which typically corresponds to their summer months (of course, this differs by hemisphere), In many countries end of secondary school exams are high stakes and determine selection into tertiary education. For example in Israel, the Bagrut exams are taken at the end of secondary school for matriculation and are used for selection into tertiary education. Lower access to mitigation technologies in disadvantaged communities, and the fact that they are often located in areas for which conditions are worse socio-economically disadvantaged youngsters maybe particularly affected by changing environmental conditions, leading them to underperform given their potential thus curtailing their educational and labour market opportunities,
- Finally, in adulthood air pollution and extreme temperatures could increase the likelihood that individuals will be sick or have to care for sick children or elderly relatives, reduce attention and increase discomfort and lead to impaired decision making – increasing risk taking and impulsivity. All these effects can reduce productivity
- Now the effects of climate change induced phenomena are problematic non only because of efficiency but also for equity. The effects of environmental conditions in fact appear to be at least 1.5 – 2 times larger for disadvantaged students. This is because disadvantaged students and adults are born in, live and work in areas with greater exposure to environmental risks. Moreover, disadvantaged students and adults have a lower ability to invest in protective or mitigating measures. These can be lower investments in home and school-level adaptive technologies such as air conditioning or tutoring to make up for lost learning opportunities. Finally, for disadvantaged young people, each point on high-stakes exams is ‘’higher-stakes’’ in terms of educational and labour-market sorting because they have a lower ability to re-take / invest in studying resources for exams and a lower ability to capitalise and rely on social capital or other non educational factors during the transition to the labour market. Schooling in other words counts more for them.
- Now what can be done? Investing in adaptive technologies such as air filters and other passive measures. In many cases these technologies can be very effective although cost varies. Mandating adaptive technologies in all schools can ensure that low-SES students have equal protection.
- Second is to re-organise the curriculum First, Online learning can be provided during high pollution and heat episodes. Here lessons from the pandemic can be instructive. Second, Adjusting the school calendar year according to local climate is important. There are calls to reduce the summer break to reduce summer learning loss. How can this be achieved? Third, some countries like Indonesia are considering starting school earlier in the day and researchers have called to place math courses in the morning to attenuate the effects of heat on analytical skills. At the same time we know that for teenagers early mornings can be a challenge for learning and attention. Fourth, we should ensure that all students can attend testing sites with adequate adaptive technologies and allowing for the re-scheduling / re-taking of exams due to adverse environmental conditions, especially for disadvantaged students. In general we can consider how best to assess young people and develop better metrics of student quality.
- Now in closing I would like to highlight how infrastructural investments and the reorganisation of learning should be accompanied by investments in building the environmental sustainability competences of young people. We need to motivate individuals to integrate sustainable practices into their daily lives as consumers. Therefore, it is essential to build environmental sustainability competence in young people in particular to ensure that they will possess the skills but also the will to protect the environment both at work and in everyday life. Our education systems should equip all young people with an understanding of science and scientific phenomena. This is a pre-requisite to ensure that they will have the tools to make informed decisions. On average across OECD countries 78% of 15-year-old students who sat the PISA test in 2018, almost 8 in 10, achieved foundational levels of scientific literacy. This means that they could at the minimum, draw on everyday knowledge and basic procedural knowledge to identify an appropriate scientific explanation, interpret data, and identify the question being addressed in a simple experimental design, use basic or everyday scientific knowledge to identify a valid conclusion from a simple data set. However, only 33% of 15-year-old students - in other words 3 in 10 - combined this level of achievement in science with taking concrete action to protect the environment, caring about the environment or being aware of climate change. On average as many as 5 in 10 students had the ‘skill’ but not the ‘will’ component of environmental sustainability competence.
- Crucially, our work indicates that there are important inequalities in how well education systems promote environmental sustainability competence. For example, On average, across OECD countries, 21% of socio‑economically disadvantaged but 46% of socio-economically advantaged students had foundational levels in environmental sustainability competence. That’s a difference of 25 percentage points.
- Here are resources that the OECD Centre for Skills has published and made available on this topic or related topics. And now I very much look forward to a fruitful discussion with our panel.