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  1. 1. Policies, Politics and Greenhouse Gases Ron Oxburgh
  2. 2. Twentieth Century <ul><li>Developed world optimised to cheap, abundant fossil fuel & raw materials </li></ul><ul><li>BUT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The end of fossil fuel supplies coming into sight </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Burgeoning world population needing fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Anthropogenic greenhouse gases making planet inhospitable to current inhabitants </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. The Science <ul><li>The link between anthropogenic GHG and global warming </li></ul><ul><li>Short circuiting of part of the C-cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Endorsed by nearly all authoritative scientific opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Location and timing of detailed consequences less clear </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Practical Problem <ul><li>Prosperity of developed world built on fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Full replacement of fossil fuels not possible for some decades </li></ul><ul><li>Ca. 30 years to bring GHG emissions under control? </li></ul>
  5. 5. Energy Policy Drivers <ul><li>Price </li></ul><ul><li>Energy security </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental security </li></ul><ul><li>To some extent these push in the same direction </li></ul>
  6. 6. Responses <ul><li>Economise </li></ul><ul><li>Greater efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Change fuel mix </li></ul><ul><li>Substitute renewables for fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon capture and storage </li></ul>
  7. 7. The Challenge of Infrastructure <ul><li>Value of hundreds of trillions of dollars </li></ul><ul><li>Very slow renewal of existing infrastructure geared to cheap fuel </li></ul><ul><li>For 2025 we have only today’s technology </li></ul><ul><li>Cars 10 -15 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Aircraft 20 -30 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Wind turbines 25 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Pwr. plants 40+yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Trains 30+ years </li></ul><ul><li>Elec. distribn 40+yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Houses 70+ years </li></ul>
  8. 8. Implication of Infrastructure ‘Drag’ <ul><li>Major change feasible and affordable if, and only if, carried out as part of life cycle replacement or expansion new-build over a long period </li></ul>
  9. 9. Expansion in Energy Demand <ul><li>We are aiming at a moving target </li></ul><ul><li>World population is growing </li></ul><ul><li>Every population uses more energy as its becomes more prosperous </li></ul>
  10. 10. GDP & Energy use – various countries 2001
  11. 11. Increase in Energy Use vs GDP 1971-2001, Malaysia & Korea KOREA MALAYSIA 1971
  12. 12. Primary Energy / CO2 Iceland Sw N Kuw
  13. 13. People and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest 2002 6.2 B 2050 9.2 B
  14. 14. Implications of a larger and more prosperous world population <ul><li>If climate change is to be contained the emissions of the developing and emerging countries have to be managed at least as carefully as those of the developed world. </li></ul>
  15. 15. Coal <ul><li>Abundant </li></ul><ul><li>Widely distributed </li></ul><ul><li>Inexpensive </li></ul><ul><li>Easily burned </li></ul><ul><li>High in GHG emissions </li></ul>
  16. 16. Coal is relatively abundant – Energy Value of Reserves Data from BP Statistical Review
  17. 17. Coal can be dirty – Kg CO2 / MJ energy Energy produced depends on fuel and efficiency of conversion
  18. 18. Main Exporters and Importers of oil & gas EXPORT IMPORT
  19. 19. Oil, Gas and Coal
  20. 20. Approximate real terms fuel price ranges 1985 – ‘05
  21. 21. Implications of Coal <ul><li>Considerations of cost and security of supply will make coal central to world energy policies for at least three decades </li></ul><ul><li>Because coal can be the most polluting fossil fuel there can be no credible climate strategy that does not have managing coal at its core </li></ul>
  22. 22. Where Next? <ul><li>No silver bullet –’wedges’ </li></ul><ul><li>Produce as little CO2 as possible and sequester as cheaply as possible </li></ul><ul><li>Coal </li></ul><ul><li>Global problem but poorest worst hit </li></ul><ul><li>The West caused the problem – obligation to help? </li></ul>Science Policy Politics Industry Technology
  23. 23. The Way Forward <ul><li>Growth and GHG management can be compatible e.g. EU plan - start now with replacement and new build </li></ul><ul><li>Right regulatory/fiscal framework essential </li></ul><ul><li>But political vs action timescales? </li></ul><ul><li>Credible strategy for the developing world? </li></ul><ul><li>Not bad for business, different for business </li></ul>
  24. 24. Thank You
  25. 25. 2002 Primary energy sources EU 25 Transport vehicles air
  26. 26. 2002 Emissions by Primary energy source – EU 25 <ul><li>Transport 50% oil use – 60% of oil emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Coal more emissions per unit energy than oil </li></ul><ul><li>Oil more emissions per unit energy than Gas </li></ul>Total 1.3 GT pa
  27. 27. Assumptions <ul><li>Per capita energy consumption of ‘the 25’ will over time rise to the average of the ’former 15’ </li></ul><ul><li>Politically and socially impracticable to reduce freedom of individuals to travel </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure now needs to be re-optimised to: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Minimise use of fossil fuels </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Minimise CO2 emissions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Allow increase in overall energy consumption </li></ul></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Reactions to Climate Threat <ul><li>Denial of the phenomenon & the science </li></ul><ul><li>Acceptance of science but: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Effective action impossible” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Protect ourselves with technology” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ The Kyoto response” </li></ul>
  29. 29. A strategy to 2025 - Transport <ul><li>Expect </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle fleet increases 220 to 300 million </li></ul><ul><li>Annual distance per vehicle declines 16,000 km to 14,000 km </li></ul><ul><li>Require </li></ul><ul><li>Bio content of fuel increases to 8% * </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle fleet achieves hybrid efficiencies * </li></ul><ul><li>(i.e. improves from 9.7 l/100km to 6.5l/100km) </li></ul><ul><li>Outcome: ~30% fall in vehicle emissions & ~20% rise in distance driven </li></ul>
  30. 30. Electricity – Approximate Installed Capacity <ul><li>FUEL 2002 2025 </li></ul><ul><li>Coal: 130 130 GW </li></ul><ul><li>Clean coal : 0 45 GW </li></ul><ul><li>Oil: 40 </li></ul><ul><li>CCGT: 90 255 GW </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear: 130 150 GW </li></ul><ul><li>Wind: 5 80 GW </li></ul><ul><li>Hydro/Geoth etc.: 50 70 GW </li></ul><ul><li>TOTAL 450 730 GW </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increase electricity generation by ~60% </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Decrease emissions by ~8% </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  31. 31. The Balance Sheet – Final Use (rounded figures) 1.04 1.3 TOTAL 0.2 0.32 10 14 Air, sea, chems etc.         0.16 0.24 8 10 Vehicles     EJ EJ         0.68 0.74 730 450 Electricity CO2 G tonnes GW GW 2025 2002 2025 2002
  32. 32. OIL GAS 0 20 40 60 80 Biomass Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal COAL -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 2002 2025 Sequestration Transport changes Gas for power generation More wind and solar Carbon emissions, GT Energy, EJ EU-25 Energy and Carbon Changes to 2025 20% emissions reduction
  33. 33. The Transition <ul><li>The relevant technologies already exist </li></ul><ul><li>At present no business case - who wants them? </li></ul><ul><li>There must be credible a regulatory/fiscal framework </li></ul><ul><li>Change affordable as part of the natural plant replacement cycle (30+ years), or as new build </li></ul>
  34. 34. The Politics <ul><li>International competition – level playing fields? </li></ul><ul><li>Continuing political will in developed world? </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperation in the Developing World? </li></ul>
  35. 35. Energy Use in ‘the 25’ Accession Countries
  36. 36. Conclusions <ul><li>Emissions reduction is compatible with economic growth and security </li></ul><ul><li>IF there is a global political will to do so </li></ul><ul><li>IFF it is done in a planned and gradual way </li></ul><ul><li>IFF it is done as new build and life-cycle replacement </li></ul><ul><li>IFF a plan and consequential regulatory changes are agreed soon </li></ul><ul><li>IFF industry is given time to respond appropriately </li></ul><ul><li>Coal is so important that sequestration will be essential </li></ul>
  37. 37. Populations and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest