1. Governing the willingness to extract,
combust and consume less carbon
Miljøpartiet de Grønne
June 14, 2014 (11-12)
Glen Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)
Email: glen.peters@cicero.uio.no Twitter: @Peters_Glen

2. Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions
Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC in 2012, 58% over 1990
Projection for 2013 : 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC, 61% over 1990
With leap year adjustment: 2012 growth rate is 1.9% and 2013 is 2.4%
Source: Le Quéré et al 2013; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)

3. Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial
Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only
Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013

4. Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial
Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only
Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Short-term
• Reverse emission trajectory
• Emissions peak by 2020

5. Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial
Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only
Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Medium-term
• Sustain emission trajectory
• Around 3%/yr reductions globally
Short-term
• Reverse emission trajectory
• Emissions peak by 2020

6. Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial
Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only
Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Short-term
• Reverse emission trajectory
• Emissions peak by 2020
Medium-term
• Sustain emission trajectory
• Around 3%/yr reductions globally
Long-term
• Net negative emissions
• Unproven technologies

7. How to share the mitigation challenge?
Depending on perspective, the importance of individual countries changes
GDP: Gross Domestic Product in Market Exchange Rates (MER) and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

8. Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)
Top five emitters in 2012 covered 63% of global emissions
China (27%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (6%), Russia (5%)
With leap year adjustment in 2012 growth rates are: China 5.6%, USA -4.0%, EU -1.6%, India 7.4%, Russia 4.8%.
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

9. Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)
Average per capita emissions in 2012
China is growing rapidly and the US is declining fast
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

10. Historical Cumulative Emissions by Country
Cumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement were distributed (1870–2012):
USA (26%), EU28 (23%), China (11%), Russia (8%), and India (4%) covering 71% of the total share
Cumulative emissions (1990–2012) were distributed USA (20%), EU28 (15%), China (18%), Russia (6%), India (5%)
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

11. miljøpartiet de grønne
14/06/2014
The mitigation challange
• “Common but differentiated” leads to
fragmented policies
• Strong, weak, none
• Global commons
• “Free rider” problems
• Relevant in a global economy
• Carbon leakage
• Competiveness concerns

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CARBON FOOTPRINTS

13. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and
services consumed in country X

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Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and
services consumed in country X
Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports

15. miljøpartiet de grønne
14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and
services consumed in country X
Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production

16. miljøpartiet de grønne
14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and
services consumed in country X
Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp Domestic

17. miljøpartiet de grønne
14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and
services consumed in country X
Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp ImpDomestic

18. miljøpartiet de grønne
14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and
services consumed in country X
Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp Imp
Consumption
Domestic

19. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and
services consumed in country X
Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp Imp
Consumption
Domestic
The adjustment for
international trade is
the key factor

20. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Large share of consumer
emissions are territorial
“Imported”
emissions

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22. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Consumption-induced:
The increase in net
import into Annex B
countries 1990-2008 was
five times greater than
the achieved emission
reduction

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Policy-induced:
Negligible effect
0.3% of territorial
Consumption-induced:
The increase in net
import into Annex B
countries 1990-2008 was
five times greater than
the achieved emission
reduction

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Carbon leakage
• Policy-induced carbon leakage
• Caused by climate policy
• Small at today’s carbon prices
• Consumption-induced carbon leakage
• Caused by a changing division of labour
• Increased consumption, met by imports
• Large, but not related to carbon prices

25. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Carbon footprints and scale
• Scale is important for footprints
• Big country, small share imported
• Small country, large share imported
• City, most imported
• Household, all imported

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City and the Hinterland
GHG t/household Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth
Greater
Hobart
Canberra Darwin
GHG Footprint 52.9 66.8 63.3 51.4 69.3 44.3 58.3 50.1
GHG Footprint - Domestic 12.3 16.2 15.6 16.2 11.4 5.3 4.7 10.2
GHG Footprint - Import 40.5 50.5 47.7 35.2 57.9 39.0 53.6 39.8
Share imported (%) 77 76 75 69 84 88 92 80
70-90% of carbon
footprint imported!

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City and the Hinterland
GHG t/household Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth
Greater
Hobart
Canberra Darwin
GHG Footprint 52.9 66.8 63.3 51.4 69.3 44.3 58.3 50.1
GHG Footprint - Domestic 12.3 16.2 15.6 16.2 11.4 5.3 4.7 10.2
GHG Footprint - Import 40.5 50.5 47.7 35.2 57.9 39.0 53.6 39.8
Share imported (%) 77 76 75 69 84 88 92 80
y = 0.8955x1.0911
R² = 0.9869
1.0
10.0
100.0
1 10 100
GHG Footprint vs Income
70-90% of carbon
footprint imported!
Income dominates footprints,
other factors (urban form,
house size, etc) are marginal

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10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.35
Food
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.77
Clothing
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.79
Manufacturing and Industry
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.85
Mobility services
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.23
Housing
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.85
Infrastucture
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.88
Electricity, gas, water
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
4
ε=0.61
Services and retailing East Asia
South-East Asia and Oceania
South Asia
North America
South America
Europe
Russian Federation and former Soviet
Middle East and North Africa
Africa
Consumption (USD/capita)
Emissions(CO
2
-eq/capita)
Consumption by income

30. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Consumption policies
• Country level consumption cap, border
carbon adjustment
• Complex, equity issues
• Financial transfers along trade flows
• Labelling
• Generally ineffective
• Information (less meat, less flights, ...)
• Not effective at the aggregate (nationally)
• Rebound effects

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FOSSIL FUELS

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The emissions supply chain
Production
(Territorial)
(Combustion)

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The emissions supply chain
Consumption
(Carbon Footprint)
Production
(Territorial)
(Combustion)

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The emissions supply chain
Extraction Production
Consumption
(Carbon Footprint)
Production
(Territorial)
(Combustion)

35. miljøpartiet de grønne
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The emissions supply chain
Extraction Production
Consumption
(Carbon Footprint)
Production
(Territorial)
(Combustion)

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Trade and Carbon
Relevant in two ways
1. Trade in fossil fuels (physical)
2. Trade in goods and services (embodied)

37. Major Flows from Extraction to Production
Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel extraction
End of arrow: fossil-fuel combustion
Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=GtC/1000
Source: Peters et al 2012b

38. Major Flows from Production to Consumption
Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel combustion
End of arrow: goods and services consumption
Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=GtC/1000
Source: Peters et al 2012b

39. Major Flows from Extraction to Consumption
Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel extraction
End of arrow: goods and services consumption
Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=GtC/1000
Source: Peters et al 2012b

40. Responsible Norway?
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Carbon(MtCO
2
)
Extracted oil: 10432 MtCO2
Extracted gas: 3491 MtCO2
Proven oil reserves: 3105 MtCO2
Proven gas reserves: 4194 MtCO2
Glen Peters (CICERO)Extracted Oil (BP)
Extracted Gas (BP)
Territorial emissions (CDIAC)

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Net trade per capita

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Norwegian GHG emissions

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EQUITY

44. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Consumption more just?
• “Emissions should be allocated to
consumption because it is fairer”
• Consumption policies implicitly/explicitly
put a price on imports
• Developing countries are worse off!
• (they have to mitigate our consumption)
• Offset this by financial transfers

45. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Extraction more just?
• “It is fairer to make fossil fuel exporters
pay for the carbon they extract”
• Revenue
• Could be used for financial transfers
• Buy support for carbon price by letting
extractors keep the income

46. miljøpartiet de grønne
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POLICY IMPLICATIONS

47. miljøpartiet de grønne
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The policy problem
• Differential carbon pricing
 Countries unwilling to deepen and broaden
climate policies unilaterally
• Two main issues
• Competitiveness concerns (economic)
• Carbon leakage (environmental)
• International trade is a key factor

48. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Extraction
Extractors collect tax revenue
In principle easy
Production/Territorial
Easy and status quo
Fragmentation, free riders,
carbon leakage
Consumption
Puts focus on key drivers
Complex (and uncertain)
Alternate carbon policy

49. miljøpartiet de grønne
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Thank you
I would love some questions 
folk.uio.no/glen
Twitter: @Peters_Glen