Aircraft Pricing Analysis - A320 YOM 2009 The analysis address the relation between current time, YOM, and the worthing price of the Aircraft.

1. Yemenia Focus (Issue No. 8)
AIRCRAFT PRICE EVALUATION
AIRBUS A320-200
BY:
MOHAMMED SALEM AWAD
CONSULTANT
Aircraft Price Evaluation is always govern by Aircraft
performance and its condition at the time of sales. Many
sources/companies work to facilitate and explore the right
price for the current and future time. One of these
companies is AVITAS, Inc.
https://www.avitas.com/valuation/online-services/
Today the task is different; we have to answer the question,
for top management.
"What is the current market value (i.e at Jan 2020) for A320-200 Aircraft that
manufactured in 2009."
Actually, we can approach AVITAS directly, or we can do it in our own way, using
the tools and the available published information
from AVITAS.
There are two information sources.
1- First Source: Data published by Air
Transport World Magazine – concerning
A320-200 Aircraft market value that
manufactured in 2005, which always
published at Trend pages. We have three
issues.
2- Second Source: Using the Data that demonstrated in the Marketing Demo
(Video) of AVITAS, i.e Data of A320-200 aircraft that manufactured in 2016
for Air berlin. At the year of publishing the Demo (2017).
Analysis:
1- Developing Price – Age (time) Curve:
Usually a straight line define by two points while the curve define by
minimum three points, so by refereeing to Aircraft value for A320-200 that
aircraft manufactured at 2005 and published at Air transport world magazine
(please refer to appendix). As shown in the graph (dotted line) started from
2014 to 2034. Then using xls tools to select the right curve that represent the

2. 2 2
data, also to define its formula and its goodness of fit (R- Square). At this
stage, we define A320-200 price curve for Aircraft manufactured at 2005.
2- A320-200 that manufactured 2016. Published Data 2017.
According to the Demo of AVITAS ( 2017 ) they demonstrated Air berlin
Fleet of 35 Aircraft- out of that, one aircraft is manufactured in 2016 which is
38.8 Million USD.
Accordingly construct the graph of YOM 2016 by using displacement
approach and position 38.8 at year 2017 on the graph.
3- Defining the current market price (2020) for A320-200 that
manufactured at 2009.
Since we are in July
2019,
So referring to the
two graphs YOM
2016, YOM 2005.
At Jan 2020, draw
an upward line that
meet the graphs in
two points.
The distance
between the two
points, should be
gradually marked as step function started from 2005 to 2016.
At 2009 level, draw a horizontal line that pointed to right market price. Which
is 21.20 Millions USD.
Results:
According to the analysis and depends on Aircraft Condition at Jan 2020, for
A320-200 that manufactured -2009:
The aircraft market price will be 21.2 Million -USD

3. 3 3
Appendix: