A presentation on polling and the 2015 General Election by Laurence Janta-Lipinski from YouGov. Part of the Young Policy Professionals and Royal Statistical Society event, 'Where next for polling?', held on 29 October 2015.
6. Best party on the economy
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Con Lab Lib Dem Other
11. Things Go Less Well
Company Con Lab Lib UKIP Green Other Error
GB RESULT 38 31 8 13 4 6
ComRes 35 34 9 12 4 6 1.33
YouGov 34 34 10 12 4 6 1.67
Opinium 35 34 8 12 6 5 1.67
Ipsos MORI 36 35 8 11 5 5 1.67
Populus 33 33 10 14 5 6 1.83
Panelbase 31 33 8 16 5 7 2.33
Survation 31 31 10 16 5 7 2.33
ICM 34 35 9 11 4 7 2.40
12. Academic Predictions
Methodology
Burnap et al Twitter
Fisher Historical votes and polls; sub-GB polls; probabilistic prediction
Ford et al Historical votes and polls; sub-GB polls; probabilistic prediction
Hanretty et al Historical votes and polls; sub-GB polls; probabilistic prediction
Lebo et al Electoral pendulum plus PM approval
Lewis-Beck et al Gov approval, vote intention and economic growth
Mellon et al BES voter transition model at the constituency level
Murr Citizen constituency forecasts
Prosser 2013 and 2014 local election rounds
Rallings et al Local by-elections
Stegmaier et al CMS party support 3mth lag with Vote, PID, Econ Eval, PM approval, events
Whiteley et al Modified cube-rule with lagged vote share but LD time-series model
13. Vote Share Predictions
Con Lab LD SNP PC UKIP Green C-L
Actual 38 31 8 5 1 13 4 +6
Final Polls 34 34 9 5 1 13 5 +0
Forecast Ave 34 32 10 6 0.4 15 3 +2
Burnap et al 30 29 5 9 0 24 2 +1
Fisher 35 32 10 4 - 12 - +3
Ford et al 35 33 9 - - - - +2
Hanretty et al 34 33 12 4 1 11 4 +2
Lebo et al - - - - - - - +3
Lewis-Beck et al 34 32 8 - - - - +3
Mellon et al 33 31 10 - - 14 - +2
Murr - - - - - - - -
Prosser 35 31 16 - - 13 - +4
Rallings et al 33 33 10 - - 13 - +0
Stegmaier et al 31 35 8 - - - - -4
Whiteley et al - - - - - - - -
14. Seat Predictions
Con Lab LD SNP PC UKIP Green C-L
Actual 331 232 8 56 3 1 1 99
Final Polls 270 285 19 55 2 0 1 -15
Forecast Ave 279 278 25 43 3 3 1 1
Burnap et al 285 306 21 9 3 5 1 -21
Fisher 285 262 25 53 3 3 1 23
Ford et al 274 272 24 53 - 2 - 2
Hanretty et al 278 267 27 53 4 1 1 11
Lebo et al 287 263 - 41 - - - 24
Lewis-Beck et al 286 274 10 - - - - 12
Mellon et al 274 278 23 52 2 0 - -4
Murr 292 262 28 40 4 5 2 30
Prosser 296 287 38 - - - - 9
Rallings et al 276 280 22 48 3 2 1 -4
Stegmaier et al 245 299 26 - - - - -54
Whiteley et al 271 281 34 - - - - -10
26. ‘Big data is like teenage sex:
everyone talks about it, nobody
really knows how to do it,
everyone thinks everyone else is
doing it, so everyone claims they
are doing it...’
- Dan Ariely, Duke University
Big Data
FINAL CALL
[dpq1] {single}If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
<1>Conservative
<2>Labour
<3>Liberal Democrat
<4>UK Independence Party (UKIP)
<5>Scottish National Party (SNP)/ Plaid Cymru
<6>Some other party
<7>Would not vote
<8>Don’t know
[dpq2 if dpq1==6] {single}And which of these parties would you vote for?
<1>Green
<3>British National Party (BNP)
<4>Respect
<5>Some other party
<6>Don't know
How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months? (May 1-2)
April 26-27
Do you think that [Leader] is doing well or badly as [role]? (May 1-2)
<1>Very well
<2>Fairly well
<3>Fairly badly
<4>Very badly
<5>Don’t know
FINAL CALL
[dpq1] {single}If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
<1>Conservative
<2>Labour
<3>Liberal Democrat
<4>UK Independence Party (UKIP)
<5>Scottish National Party (SNP)/ Plaid Cymru
<6>Some other party
<7>Would not vote
<8>Don’t know
[dpq2 if dpq1==6] {single}And which of these parties would you vote for?
<1>Green
<3>British National Party (BNP)
<4>Respect
<5>Some other party
<6>Don't know