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Where next for polling? Laurence Janta-Lipinski presentation
The document discusses the outcomes and predictions related to the 2015 UK general election, examining previous election results, voting intentions, and the performance of various political parties. It highlights discrepancies between polls and actual results, emphasizing the complexity in understanding voter behavior and the importance of data-driven analyses. The author reflects on the challenges in interpreting polling data and the potential implications for future policy professionals.
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Where next for polling? Laurence Janta-Lipinski presentation
- 1. The 2015 GeneralElection Laurence Janta-Lipinski Associate Director, YouGov @JantaLipinski
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- 3. The General Electionof 2010 Conservative 37% 306 Labour 30% 258 Lib Dems 24% 57 Ukip 3% 0 Other 6% 29
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- 6. Best party onthe economy 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December February March April May June July August September October November January February March April June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Con Lab Lib Dem Other
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- 8. Voting Intention 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 30th March6th May Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP
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- 11. Things Go LessWell Company Con Lab Lib UKIP Green Other Error GB RESULT 38 31 8 13 4 6 ComRes 35 34 9 12 4 6 1.33 YouGov 34 34 10 12 4 6 1.67 Opinium 35 34 8 12 6 5 1.67 Ipsos MORI 36 35 8 11 5 5 1.67 Populus 33 33 10 14 5 6 1.83 Panelbase 31 33 8 16 5 7 2.33 Survation 31 31 10 16 5 7 2.33 ICM 34 35 9 11 4 7 2.40
- 12. Academic Predictions Methodology Burnap etal Twitter Fisher Historical votes and polls; sub-GB polls; probabilistic prediction Ford et al Historical votes and polls; sub-GB polls; probabilistic prediction Hanretty et al Historical votes and polls; sub-GB polls; probabilistic prediction Lebo et al Electoral pendulum plus PM approval Lewis-Beck et al Gov approval, vote intention and economic growth Mellon et al BES voter transition model at the constituency level Murr Citizen constituency forecasts Prosser 2013 and 2014 local election rounds Rallings et al Local by-elections Stegmaier et al CMS party support 3mth lag with Vote, PID, Econ Eval, PM approval, events Whiteley et al Modified cube-rule with lagged vote share but LD time-series model
- 13. Vote Share Predictions ConLab LD SNP PC UKIP Green C-L Actual 38 31 8 5 1 13 4 +6 Final Polls 34 34 9 5 1 13 5 +0 Forecast Ave 34 32 10 6 0.4 15 3 +2 Burnap et al 30 29 5 9 0 24 2 +1 Fisher 35 32 10 4 - 12 - +3 Ford et al 35 33 9 - - - - +2 Hanretty et al 34 33 12 4 1 11 4 +2 Lebo et al - - - - - - - +3 Lewis-Beck et al 34 32 8 - - - - +3 Mellon et al 33 31 10 - - 14 - +2 Murr - - - - - - - - Prosser 35 31 16 - - 13 - +4 Rallings et al 33 33 10 - - 13 - +0 Stegmaier et al 31 35 8 - - - - -4 Whiteley et al - - - - - - - -
- 14. Seat Predictions Con LabLD SNP PC UKIP Green C-L Actual 331 232 8 56 3 1 1 99 Final Polls 270 285 19 55 2 0 1 -15 Forecast Ave 279 278 25 43 3 3 1 1 Burnap et al 285 306 21 9 3 5 1 -21 Fisher 285 262 25 53 3 3 1 23 Ford et al 274 272 24 53 - 2 - 2 Hanretty et al 278 267 27 53 4 1 1 11 Lebo et al 287 263 - 41 - - - 24 Lewis-Beck et al 286 274 10 - - - - 12 Mellon et al 274 278 23 52 2 0 - -4 Murr 292 262 28 40 4 5 2 30 Prosser 296 287 38 - - - - 9 Rallings et al 276 280 22 48 3 2 1 -4 Stegmaier et al 245 299 26 - - - - -54 Whiteley et al 271 281 34 - - - - -10
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- 16. What Went Wrong Wedon’t know yet No easy answers No single answer Data-driven conclusions
- 17. Data Sources British ElectionStudy (n = c30,000) SCMS (n = c3,000) Daily Polling (n > 100,000)
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- 19. We will notlead on polls
- 20. Arise the NewPolitics
- 21. Where Do WeGo From Here?
- 22. Oh the FunWe Have
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- 24. And the Futurefor Policy Professionals?
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- 26. ‘Big data islike teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it...’ - Dan Ariely, Duke University Big Data
- 27. Behold the Cube SurveyRespondents Questions
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Editor's Notes
- #5 FINAL CALL [dpq1] {single}If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? <1>Conservative <2>Labour <3>Liberal Democrat <4>UK Independence Party (UKIP) <5>Scottish National Party (SNP)/ Plaid Cymru <6>Some other party <7>Would not vote <8>Don’t know [dpq2 if dpq1==6] {single}And which of these parties would you vote for? <1>Green <3>British National Party (BNP) <4>Respect <5>Some other party <6>Don't know
- #6 How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months? (May 1-2)
- #7 April 26-27
- #8 Do you think that [Leader] is doing well or badly as [role]? (May 1-2) <1>Very well <2>Fairly well <3>Fairly badly <4>Very badly <5>Don’t know
- #9 FINAL CALL [dpq1] {single}If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? <1>Conservative <2>Labour <3>Liberal Democrat <4>UK Independence Party (UKIP) <5>Scottish National Party (SNP)/ Plaid Cymru <6>Some other party <7>Would not vote <8>Don’t know [dpq2 if dpq1==6] {single}And which of these parties would you vote for? <1>Green <3>British National Party (BNP) <4>Respect <5>Some other party <6>Don't know