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Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014
The document discusses the political landscape leading up to the 2015 general election in the UK, focusing on public sentiment towards independence for Scotland and the performance of major political parties. It provides insights into voter opinions, including concerns around the economy and immigration, and highlights demographic trends in voter support for different parties. Additionally, it presents statistical data from Ipsos Mori on political preferences and projected election outcomes.
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Beyond the Bubble: Labour Party Conference 2014
- 1. Gideon Skinner, Headof Political Research, Ipsos MORI #beyondthebubble
- 2. Gideon Skinner, Headof Political Research, Ipsos MORI Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI
- 3. The battle to2015
- 4. or “The warof the weak” Joe Murphy, Evening Standard
- 5. 5 Version 1| Confidential © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here But first….
- 6. 6 Should Scotlandbe an independent country? The story of the campaign Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 No Yes
- 7. 7 Should Scotlandbe an independent country? The story of the campaign Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 16th September No Yes
- 8. 8 Should Scotlandbe an independent country? The story of the campaign Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 No Yes 17th September
- 9. 9 53% 46% 1% 70% 25% 5% 47% 50% 4% 31% 63% 6% Who swung it? Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Yes Don’t know/refused No 40% 55 51% 3% 45% 40% 6% 55% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 30% 68% 3% 2011 Labour voters
- 10. 10 Which ofthese has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because you are hopeful for the future if the Yes/No side wins, or because you are fearful for the future if the Yes/No side loses? A tale of two campaigns All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Hopeful 80% Fearful 16% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Hopeful 36% Fearful 58% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Yes supporters No supporters
- 11. 11 Version 1| Confidential © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here The English Question 55% supported giving Scotland extra powers over tax and spend if it voted to stay in the UK 56% support giving England the same
- 12. 12 But wedon’t know what we want – yet – except it’s probably not what we have now Which, if any, of the following statements best represents your views on how laws ONLY affecting England should be made? Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 2,008 British adults 15+, 18th- 24th July 2014 22% 33% 33% Laws only affecting England should be made by a separate English Parliament Laws only affecting England should be made by the House of Commons, but only English MPs should be able to vote on them Laws only affecting England should be voted on by all MPs in Parliament, as they are now
- 13. Even in 2010,nine in ten voted for one of the three main parties – now it’s just three in four
- 14. 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 33% 7% 34% 15% 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 2010 General Election Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Watch the share – not the lead! How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Lab 2012 average: 41% Lab 2014 average: 35%
- 15. 15 Base: c.1,000-3,000British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 17th September 2014 Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus, ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus Reid, Ashcroft Conservative vote share EOI % +/- But the Conservatives aren’t benefiting much either “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?” “Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next twelve months?” -30 -15 0 15 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 +3 32% -3 Proximity to 32% Number of polls % of polls +/-3ppt 599/655 91% +/-2ppt 517/655 79% +/-1ppt 344/655 53%
- 16. 16 70% 13% 3% 2% 12% 2014 Labour vote 2010 Labour 2010 LibDem 2010 Con 2010 UKIP 2010 Other 2010 DNV/too young/etc Dangers for both parties – Labour relying on LibDem switchers, but hardly any Tories Base: 1,300 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
- 17. 17 12% 12% 34% 23% 4% 16% 2014 UKIP vote 2010 Labour 2010 LibDem 2010 Con 2010 UKIP 2010 Other 2010 DNV/too young/etc While although UKIP picking up support from all parties, Conservatives are the biggest losers Base: 441 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
- 18. Two parties, twoproblems
- 19. 19 Source: IpsosMORI Political Monitor Labour the most liked party, but Cameron most liked leader Miliband & the Labour Party Cameron & the Conservative Party % % Total like him 31 48 Total do not like him 63 49 Total like his party 50 42 Total do not like his party 44 55 Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron/ Ed Miliband and the Conservative/ Labour party? Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
- 20. 20 Base: c.1,000British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low... How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2014) HOWARD (2003-2005) Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone Net satisfaction
- 21. 21 Ed doeswell on understanding problems, but behind on PM qualities and personality I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… 67% 55% 55% 53% 43% 48% 43% 39% 46% 30% 43% 22% 36% 53% 32% 20% 55% 20% 26% 17% 26% 42% 45% 26% 39% 31% 58% 19% 24% 39% 52% 67% A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Miliband Cameron Clegg Has got a lot of personality Has a clear vision for Britain Farage Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th-9th September 2014 Split sample for Nick Clegg (496) and Nigel Farage (514)
- 22. 22 But peopledo feel more positive about the party 43% 35% 23% 61% 51% 40% 48% 46% 23% 52% 48% 27% 47% 41% 31% 48% 43% 14% 39% 32% 13% 56% 18% 20% 51% 39% 12% 38% 28% 24% 36% 16% 24% 39% 80% 64% Looks after interests of people like me Out of date Fit to govern Good team of leaders Understands problems facing Britain Different to other parties Labour Conservative LibDem Extreme Keeps its promises UKIP Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Divided I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014. Split sample question for UKIP (514) and the Liberal Democrats (496)
- 23. 23 Meanwhile, thereare three key issues, each owned by a different party… Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?* Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 10% 11% 12% 13% 23% 29% 30% 31% Housing Crime and ASB/ law and order Pensions Defence Care for older/disabled Taxation Unemployment Europe/ EU Foreign policy/affairs Benefits Education/ schools Healthcare/ NHS Asylum and immigration Economy Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 *Showing only answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results
- 24. 24 The Conservativesincreasing their lead on the economy Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 20% 3% 45% 2%
- 25. 25 UKIP ismaking the running on immigration Which party do you think has the best policies on asylum/ immigration the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 18% 9% 19% 20%
- 26. 26 While theNHS is Labour’s strongest card Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 39% 4% 21% 1%
- 27. So what doesthat tell us for 2015?
- 28. 28 The mostunpredictable election in living memory? What are the precedents? –The last time a government increased its vote share after more than two years in office - 1955 –(It has only happened twice since 1900) –The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931 –Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832 –In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a narrow poll lead one year out, the other party won.
- 29. 29 Who doyou want to be? Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead in ratings 2015 ? Opposition Government
- 30. 30 Only twoprevious occasions when opposition has led in vote but PM been ahead in ratings Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead in ratings 2015 ? Opposition Government 2010 None Opposition Opposition 2005 Government Government Opposition 2001 Government Government Opposition 1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition 1987 Government Opposition Opposition 1983 Government Government Government
- 31. 31 Who doyou want to be – Labour 1992 or Conservatives 1979? Election Winner Party ahead in vote Leader ahead in ratings 2015 ? Opposition Government 2010 None Opposition Opposition 2005 Government Government Opposition 2001 Government Government Opposition 1997 Opposition Opposition Opposition 1992 Government Opposition Government 1987 Government Opposition Opposition 1983 Government Government Government 1979 Opposition Opposition Government
- 32. 32 Thank you Gideon.skinner@ipsos.com | +4400 May 2014 © Ipsos MORI gideon.skinner@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3000