Most Britons believe that David Cameron will campaign for Britain to stay in the European Union after his negotiations with other European leaders, according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor, even though only 18% think he will achieve all or most of his goals. The survey reveals that 68% think the Prime Minister will campaign for Britain to remain a member in the upcoming referendum (including both 73% of Conservative supporters and 71% of supporters of other parties), while 17% think he will campaign for Britain to leave (just 1% thinks he will remain neutral).

1. 2015
POLITICAL MONITOR
21.12.2015

2. VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. Voting Intention
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
37%
33%
9%
5%
10%
6%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +7
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
38%
31%
9%
6%
9%
7%
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General
Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE;
this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3

4. SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

5. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT
+0.5%
swing from November
-7%
swing from November
-1.5%
swing from November
+3.5%
swing from November
+2.5%
swing from November
-14 Net -17 Net -15 Net -7 Net -17 Net
SATISFIED 41% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 38%
DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 55%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
5
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-50
+50
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?

6. Satisfaction with Party leaders Nov‘8 – Nov‘15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
6HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
41%
33%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
33%
24%

7. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
7HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

8. David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
8
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS
JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
41%
55%
4%
December 2015 August 2006 –December 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
Apr-152
Sep-15
Dec-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 41%
DISSATISFIED 55%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = -14
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

9. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 327 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th – 14th December
9
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS
JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
81%
18%
1%
December 2015 July 2006 – December 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun06
Oct06
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Feb08
May08
Aug08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 81%
DISSATISFIED 18%
DON’T KNOW 1%
Net = +63
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

10. 37%
40%
23%
33%
50%
17%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
10
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING
HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015
SATISFIED 33%
DISSATISFIED 50%
DON’T KNOW 17%
Net = -17
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 40%
DON’T KNOW 23%
Net = -3
December 2015

11. 65%
18%
18%
56%
28%
16%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction among Labour
supporters)
11
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING
HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2015
SATISFIED 56%
DISSATISFIED 28%
DON’T KNOW 16%
Net = +28
Base: 310 Labour supporters 14th – 17th November and 328 Labour supporters12th –14th December 2015
SATISFIED 65%
DISSATISFIED 18%
DON’T KNOW 18%
Net = +47
November 2015

12. 18%
32%
50%
24%
31%
45%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
12ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015 December 2015
SATISFIED 18%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 50%
Net = -15
SATISFIED 24%
DISSATISFIED 31%
DON’T KNOW 45%
Net = -7

13. 57%30%
13%
48%
30%
22%
Tim Farron (satisfaction among Liberal Democrat
supporters)
Base:80 Lib Dem supporters 18+ 14th – 17th November and 79 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 12-14 December 2015
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only) December 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only)
SATISFIED 57%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = +27
SATISFIED 48%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 22%
Net = +18

14. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-152
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
14
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS
JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
33%
48%
19%
December 2015 March 2013 – December 2015
SATISFIED 33%
DISSATISFIED 48%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = -15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

15. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-152
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 61 UKIP supporters 18+, 12th – 14th December
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
15
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS
JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
93%
3%3%
December 2015 March 2013 – December 2015
SATISFIED 93%
DISSATISFIED 3%
DON’T KNOW 3%
Net = +90
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

16. ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

17. Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
17DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feb-04
Nov-04
Aug-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Apr-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jul-10
May-11
Feb-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
May-14
Feb-15
Dec-15
IMPROVE 34%
STAY THE
SAME
28%
GET WORSE 35%
DON’T KNOW 3%
EOI = -1

18. The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
18DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Nov1997
Jun1998
Jan1999
Aug1999
Mar2000
Oct2000
May2001
Dec2001
Jul2002
Feb2003
Sep2003
Apr2004
Nov2004
Jun2005
Jan2006
Aug2006
Mar2007
Oct2007
May2008
Dec2008
Jul2009
Feb2010
Sep2010
Apr2011
Nov2011
Jun2012
Jan2013
Aug2013
Mar2014
Oct2014
May2015
Dec2015
-1

19. EUROPE

20. European referendum
Base: 511 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
20
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT
OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
STAY IN 52%
GET OUT 39%
DON’T KNOW 9%
December 2015
STAY IN 53%
GET OUT 36%
DON’T KNOW 11%

21. Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?
Trend since 1977
21
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT
OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
26%
60% 63%
52%
49%
53%
51%
41%
61%
53%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35%
32%
39%
49%
27%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Dec-77
Dec-78
Dec-79
Dec-80
Dec-81
Dec-82
Dec-83
Dec-84
Dec-85
Dec-86
Dec-87
Dec-88
Dec-89
Dec-90
Dec-91
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Base: 511 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
STAY IN GET OUT

22. EU Referendum question:
Should the UK remain a member of the EU?
Base: 529 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
22
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE
THE
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
36%
52%
12%
32%
58%
10%
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
EUROPEAN UNION?
December 2015

23. 4%
30%
37%
26%
3%5%
32%
36%
24%
3%6%
32%
37%
20%
4%
Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU deal
for Britain
23
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A
GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
Source: Ipsos MORI
June 2015
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
October 2015 December 2015
VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT DON’T KNOW
57%
34%
63%
37%
60%
38%

24. 1%
17%
64%
13%
5%
Will Cameron achieve his goals?
24
DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL ACHIEVE ALL, MOST, A FEW, OR NONE OF HIS GOALS
IN THE NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
ALL MOST A FEW NONE DON’T KNOW
December 2015

25. What will Cameron do after the negotiations?
25
AND AFTER THE NEGOTIATIONS, DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL CAMPAIGN FOR BRITAIN TO
STAY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE REFERENDUM OR FOR BRITAIN TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN
UNION?
14%
1%
17%
68%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
Will campaign for Britain to stay in
Will campaign for Britain to leave
Will be neutral
Don't know

26. 32%
20%5%
14%
27%
1%
Voting rights
26
DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE [STATEMENT] IN THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S
MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Giving 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote
Base: Split-sample: 504/536 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
Reducing the voting age from 18 to 16
STRONGLY
SUPPORT TEND TO SUPPORT
NEITHER SUPPORT
NOR OPPOSE TEND TO OPPOSE STRONGLY OPPOSE DON’T KNOW
20%
17%
6%
18%
38%
1%
56%
37%42%
41%
52%

27. SYRIA / TERRORISM

28. DAVID CAMERON JEREMY CORBYN HILARY BENN
-15 Net -26 Net -1 Net
SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 35%
DISSATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 9% DON’T KNOW 15% DON’T KNOW 29%
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
28
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY… IS HANDLING THE CRISIS IN
SYRIA?
Satisfaction with the way…is handling the Syrian crisis

29. Are the airstrikes making Britain a safer place?
AS YOU MAY KNOW, BRITAIN HAS RECENTLY LAUNCHED AIRSTRIKES AGAINST THE
SO-CALLED ISLAMIC STATE IN SYRIA. DO YOU THINK THESE AIRSTRIKES WILL MAKE
BRITAIN SAFER OR LESS SAFE FROM TERRORISM, OR WILL IT MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
9%
44%
44%
3%
SAFER
LESS SAFE
MAKES NO DIFFERENCE
DON’T KNOW
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
29

30. AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

31. 20%
36%
18%
9%
6%
11%
5%
7%
9%
13%
61%
6%
Support for potential US Presidential candidates
31AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS BEING HELD NEXT YEAR. DONALD TRUMP
IS CAMPAIGNING TO BE THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, AND HILLARY CLINTON IS CAMPAIGNING TO
BE THE DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE. DO YOU HAVE A FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE OPINION OF..
Source: Ipsos MORI
Hillary Clinton
Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December
Donald Trump
VERY FAVOURABLE
FAIRLY
FAVOURABLE
NEITHER
FAVOURABLE NOR
UNFAVOURABLE
FAIRLY
UNFAVOURABLE
VERY
UNFAVOURABLE DON’T KNOW
74%
12%
42
%
15%
56%

32. 2015
POLITICAL MONITOR