1. Lexington guide to European elections

2. Lexington guide to European elections
How does the expected turnout
compare to past European elections?
Are Ukip a recent problem in European
elections?
Will Labour re-gain MEPs to be back
where they were in 1999?
What does success and failure look like
for the UK parties?
What happened in 2009?

3. Results 2009: by region and total
North East
C1, L1, LD 1
Yorkshire
C2, L1, UKIP 1, BNP 1, LD 1
East Midlands
C2, L1, UKIP 1, LD 1
Eastern
C3, L1, UKIP 2, LD 1
Scotland
C1, L2, SNP 2, LD 1
North West
C3, L2, UKIP 1, BNP 1, LD 1
Northern Ireland
DUP1, UCUNF 1, SF 1
West Midlands
C2*, L1, UKIP 2, LD 1
Wales
C1, L1, UKIP 1, PC 1
South West
C3, UKIP 2, LD 1
London
C3, L2, UKIP 1, LD 1, G 1
South East
C4, L1, UKIP 2, LD 2, G 1
Total: C25, L13, UKIP 13, BNP 2, LD 11, G 2, SNP 2, PC 1, DUP1,
UCUNF 1, SF 1

4. UK turnout at European elections 1979 - date
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
UK 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24.00% 38.52% 34.70%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Turnout
Since 1979 the turnout trend is upwards but still half that of general elections
1999 was the first election under a party list system which impacted turnout
2014 turn-out is likely to be between 32% - 39% turnout
There has been a low turnout in every European election in the UK

5. Vote Share Conservatives Labour Lib Dem UKIP Green
1999 36% 28% 13% 7% 6.3%
2004 26.7% 22.6% 14.9% 16.1% 6.3%
2009 27.9% 15.8% 13.8% 16.6% 8.1%
UK results and vote share 1999, 2004 and 2009
36
29
10
3 2
27
19
12 12
2
25
13
11
13
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conservative Labour Lib Dem Ukip Green
MEPs

6. Vote 2014: Success and failure – what to look for
2014 Conservatives Labour Lib Dem UKIP Green
Seat Range 15 - 21 16 - 24 1 - 4 20-26 1-4
Vote Share Range 20 - 26% 23 - 29% 7% - 13% 24 - 30% 7 - 13%
Conservatives Success: Anything above 24% or above 20 seats or coming second
Average result: Coming third with 20% of the vote
Bad result: Coming a bad third, under 20% of the vote
Failure: Under 17% of the vote or 14 seats or losing all Scottish and Welsh MEPs
Labour Success: Beating UKIP into first place on poll share or seats and beating Tories by 8%
Average result: Coming second, 20 plus seats or getting 25% plus of the vote
Bad result: Anything below 19 seats or getting under 25% of the vote
Failure: Coming third
Lib Dem Success: Winning 4 seats, or getting above 12% of the vote
Average result: Winning 3 seats and getting above 10% of the vote
Bad result: Winning fewer than 3 seats or getting 9% of the vote or under
Failure: Winning no seats or coming fifth behind the Greens
UKIP Success: Coming first or winning 25 seats or getting over 28% of the vote
Average result: Coming second, or winning 20 seats
Bad result: Coming poor second, or winning fewer than 20 seats
Failure: Finishing third in terms of seats or vote share.
Green Success: Beating the Liberal Democrats to come fourth or gaining a seat in the North
Average result: Retaining two seats

7. More information
For more information please
contact the Lexington team on:
020 7025 2300
or go to
www.lexcomm.co.uk