Election dissection

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On 12 December 2019 the UK had its third General Election in four years. After weeks and months of speculation, by lunchtime on Friday 13 December we had the results. But big questions remained. How – and where – was the election won and lost? What does the result mean for Brexit? Where does it leave our political parties and their leaders? And in which direction might our big national political debates be heading? To debate these questions, the Resolution Foundation held an event examining the overnight election result and heard from some of Britain’s leading political thinkers, doers and writers on what those results mean for the immediate-, medium- and long- term future of British politics.

News & Politics

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Election Dissection
Analysing General Election 2019
@resfoundation#Election2019

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Change in vote share and seats between 2017 and 2019 general elections
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects
@resfoundation
The headlines of this election are VERY clear

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Change in seats for the opposition party at UK general elections
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects; House of Commons Library
@resfoundation
Don’t forget how historically unprecedented this is

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Change in seats for the opposition party at UK general elections
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects; House of Commons Library
@resfoundation
Don’t forget how historically unprecedented this is

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Growth in house prices, incomes and GDP: UK
Notes: Average house price growth relates to growth on the previous year for June 1987 and the most recent data available, September 2019. GDP growth relates
to quarter-on-quarter growth for Q2 1987 and Q3 2019.
Source: RF analysis of ONS
@resfoundation
For the Tories, this shouldn’t have been a walk in the park

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Change in vote share of major parties at general elections, by region: 2017-19
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects; House of Commons Library, General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019
@resfoundation
Labour collapse in the North, Tories grow in the midlands

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Change in Conservative vote share at general elections: England & Wales, 2015-19
Notes: EU referendum votes are estimated at the constituency level by Chris Hanretty, using areal interpolation. Source: RF analysis of House of Commons Library,
General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; C Hanretty, ‘Areal interpolation and
the UK’s referendum on EU membership’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27(4), March 2017
@resfoundation
2017 was about Brexit for the Conservatives – 2019 doubled
down

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Change in Labour vote share at general elections: England & Wales, 2015-19
Notes: EU referendum votes are estimated at the constituency level by Chris Hanretty, using areal interpolation. Source: RF analysis of House of Commons Library,
General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; C Hanretty, ‘Areal interpolation and
the UK’s referendum on EU membership’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27(4), March 2017
@resfoundation
Labour falls this time are about Brexit

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Relationship between age and Conservative/Labour vote share in parliamentary constituencies at
recent general elections: England
Notes: Mean age is estimated based on single-year-of-age data, with those aged 90 and above grouped. To calculate mean ages, we assign all those aged 90 and above
an age of 90, meaning we will slightly underestimate the mean age across constituencies. Source: RF analysis of ONS, Mid-year Population Estimates; Britain Elects;
House of Commons Library, General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; Pippa Norris
@resfoundation
Importance of age grows for Labour votes

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Relationship between deprivation levels and Conservative/Labour vote share in parliamentary
constituencies at recent general elections: England
Source: RF analysis of Index of Multiple Deprivation; Britain Elects; House of Commons Library, General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of
Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; Pippa Norris data @resfoundation
Pay attention to the new Conservative coalition

Conservatives hold 12-point lead over Labour heading into final week of the election campaign Corbyn has improved leader satisfaction ratings since October but still trails Johnson NHS of increased importance to voters as an election issue One in four may change their minds on who to vote for before next Thursday More of the British public are opposed to a second referendum on Scottish independence next year than support one

Paying for a fairer Britain – Labour’s tax policy

ResolutionFoundation

Labour are promising a radical reform agenda – from free university education to reversing elements of the austerity that has taken place over the past decade. But radical reforms don’t come cheap and sit alongside demographic headwinds that mean the annual cost of simply maintaining the status quo for our welfare state will rise by £36bn by the end of the decade. In response the Party has set out proposals for significant increases in taxation, including higher rates of income and corporation tax. But the party has also promised to only increase taxes for the top 5% of households. Will Labour’s tax plans bring in the revenue intended, and will they be sufficient to pay for the rising cost of our existing welfare state? How will it ensure that it’s tax policy is fair, robust and well targeted? And how will Labour’s plans contrast with those of a new Conservative leader committed to cutting taxes? Start: 6:00 pm End: 7:30 pm Location: Hilton Brighton Metropole, Kings Rd, Brighton BN1 2FU Room: Clarence Speakers: Torsten Bell (Chair) – CEO of the Resolution Foundation Rachel Reeves MP, Member for Leeds West James Meadway, former economic policy advisor to the Shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds MP, Shadow Treasury Minister Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies

The jobs boom: How has our employment surge changed Britain?

ResolutionFoundation

Ten years ago, as the financial crisis became a crisis for the real economy, many expected to see a return to the 3 million unemployed that had followed the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s. Instead Britain saw far fewer job losses and a stronger employment recovery, with the UK hitting new employment records from 2015 onwards and unemployment falling to a 43-year low. Who – and what parts of the country – have gained most from Britain’s employment boom? Has the quantity of jobs created come at the expense of quality? How has the job surge interacted with a changing Britain – from an ageing society to increased migration? Has almost eight years of rapidly rising employment finally ended now? At an event at its Westminster headquarters, the Resolution Foundation presented the findings from its new report on the UK’s employment ‘boom’. Employment Minister Alok Sharma spoke on the government’s full employment ambitions, followed by an expert panel discussion and audience Q&A. Speakers Alok Sharma, Minister for Employment and MP for Reading West Liz Sayce, Expert in disability issues and policy Andrew Carter, CEO at the Centre for Cities Stephen Clarke, Senior Economic Analyst at the Resolution Foundation Chair: Torsten Bell, Director at the Resolution Foundation

The State of Ageing in 2019

Centre for Ageing Better

A lifetime of living standards: Launch of the Intergenerational Centre and in...

ResolutionFoundation

The document discusses living standards in Britain across generations. While there are some reasons for optimism around pay growth and home ownership rates for younger generations, headwinds remain. Younger adults face pay and occupational scars from the financial crisis and structural factors that leave their pay behind predecessors. They also face a consumption crunch and declining home ownership prospects due to high house prices. While policymakers aim to support both the old and young, challenges remain in balancing support for an aging population projected to cost £36 billion by 2030 with improving living standards for younger cohorts.

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2018

Ipsos UK

Only 14% of Britons think that the new funding announced for the NHS by the government will lead to actual improvements, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. As the NHS celebrates its 70th year half the public (49%) believe the new funding will only be enough to maintain the current level of NHS services, but not to lead to improvements – a third 33% think the amount is not enough and the NHS will get worse. While there is some variation across party lines supporters of all parties are pessimistic the funding will lead to improvements - a quarter (23%) of Conservative voters believe the amount is enough to lead to improvements compared with 8% of Labour voters. More than half (55%) of Conservative voters and 47% of Labour voters think the amount is enough to maintain current levels, while one in five (21%) Conservatives and two in five (40%) Labour voters think it will still get worse).

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor February 2017

Ipsos UK

Theresa May continues to have strong backing from the British public according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. The new poll reveals that the Prime Minister’s honeymoon is yet to end with more than half (53%) of the public satisfied with her performance (up 8 points). One in three (36%) said they were dissatisfied with her (down 3 points) leaving Ms May a net satisfaction score of +17 (up 11 points).

Natalie Turner state of ageing newcastle search 30 09 19

SearchNewcastle

Natalie Turner gave a presentation on the state of ageing in the UK in 2019. She outlined a vision for 2040 where more older people enjoy good health, financial security, social connections and purpose. To achieve this, focus will be on those approaching later life and those most at risk of poor outcomes. The presentation provided data on trends in areas like demographics, work, finances, health, communities and housing to illustrate opportunities and challenges for older people in the UK.

Two-thirds (68%) of the British public have an unfavourable opinion of US President Donald Trump, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. With fieldwork one week after his visit to the UK, the new poll reveals that just one in five (19%) have a favourable opinion, one in nine (11%) say they see him as neither favourable nor unfavourable, but half (52%) feel very unfavourable towards him. Women are more likely to feel unfavourable towards the President than men (75% vs. 60% respectively) as are young people – three-quarters (76%) of 18-34s are also negative compared with 64% of 35-54s and 65% of people ages 55 and above. Labour supporters are especially unfavourable (by 82% to 12%), while Conservative supporters are also negative (by a margin of 61% to 23%). However, although the figures are not positive for the President they are not as poor as when last asked in October 2016 when 7% were favourable towards Mr Trump and 84% unfavourable.

Ipsos MORI Politicial Monitor - July 2019

Ipsos UK

The July 2019 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows some good news for the Conservatives as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes office. Mr Johnson’s personal poll ratings have improved, especially among his own supporters, and he leads Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on several leadership metrics. However, Mr Johnson’s satisfaction ratings are worse than other Prime Ministers taking office mid-parliament and the public remain divided over potential Brexit outcomes. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have a ten-point lead over Labour among ‘likely voters’, which is partly due to an increased enthusiasm among Conservatives saying they are certain to vote.

2014 National 5 Modern Studies exam

mrmarr

This document outlines the structure and requirements for a Modern Studies exam consisting of 3 sections worth 60 marks total. Section 1 is on democracy in Scotland/UK and is worth 20 marks. Candidates must choose one of two parts, each focusing on different aspects of democracy. Section 2, also worth 20 marks, covers social issues in the UK and requires choosing between parts on social inequality or crime/law. Section 3, the final section worth 20 marks, presents choices between parts examining world powers or issues. The exam instructions specify writing answers in the provided booklet and identifying the question number being attempted.

Ipsos MORI Politicial Monitor October 2018

Ipsos UK

A majority want to see the Government increase public spending, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. One week before Phillip Hammond is due to deliver his budget the new poll reveals that two-thirds (66%) think the government should increase spending on public services, even if that means higher taxes or more government borrowing. One in five (20%) believe it should keep spending at the current level, while just 8% think it should reduce spending to allow for tax cuts or less government borrowing.

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - June 2016

Ipsos UK

HIV in Birmingham - an overview of the data

HealthyBrum

Ipsos MORI March 2019 Political Monitor

Ipsos UK

The latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows an increase in the proportion of the British public thinking the Prime Minister should step down as soon as possible, and her worst ratings yet for having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister. However, despite how poorly the British public believe the Brexit process has gone, Theresa May is still viewed more favourable than Jeremy Corbyn and her potential Conservative successors.

January 2015 RICS UK Residential Market Survey

RICS

The document provides details on the RICS Residential Market Survey for January 2015. It includes net balance data on house prices, sales, new buyer inquiries, new vendor instructions, and agreed sales over the last month and coming months. It also provides levels data on average stock and sales per surveyor over the last 3 months. The document summarizes the key findings from the survey for different regions of the UK and notes continued strength in Northern Ireland and Scotland compared to other areas.

Resolution Foundation - Spring Statement Event

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Ipsos MORI Final 2017 General Election Poll

Ipsos UK

Ipsos MORI’s final 2017 election poll for the Evening Standard indicates that Theresa May and the Conservatives are on course to win the 2017 General Election. Our headline estimate of voting intention is Conservative 44%, Labour 36%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 4%, and Greens 2%. The age pattern seen throughout the election continues, with young people more likely to vote Labour than Conservative (by 49% to 28% among 18-34s), while the 65+ say they will vote Conservative by 60% to 23% for Labour. More: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-final-election-poll-2017

Ipsos MORI September 2019 Political Monitor

Ipsos UK

As the Conservatives kick-off their party conference in Manchester, 81% of the British public tell Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor that they are dissatisfied with how the government is running the country. Just 14% are satisfied. The government’s net satisfaction score now stands at minus 67, with only the governments of John Major and Theresa May ever achieving lower ratings in the Ipsos MORI Political Monitor series – dating back to 1977. Meanwhile 37% are satisfied with the job Boris Johnson is doing as Prime Minister (up 6 points from July) but a majority (55%) are dissatisfied (up 17 points). His net satisfaction rating is -18 (down 11 points). Conservative supporters remain satisfied overall with their leader (71% - up 4 points) while 21% are dissatisfied (up 13 points) – leaving him a net satisfaction score of +50 (down 9 points).

Ipsos MORI January 2018 Political Monitor

Ipsos UK

A majority of Britons do not think that the American President Donald Trump should be invited to the Royal Wedding between Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. The new poll shows that 69% of the public believe that he should not be invited – 23% think he should. Opposition to the invitation is higher amongst younger people (79% of 18-34s compared with 59% of those aged 55+. Women are also more likely to oppose (78%) than men (58%), as are Labour voters (80%) than Conservative voters (63%).

Olivier Desbarres - EU REFERENDUM SURVEY RESULTS

Olivier Desbarres

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020

Ipsos UK

Economic optimism has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor. The new poll, conducted between 13-16 March, so before some of this week’s emergency measures were announced, shows seven in ten (69%) now say they think the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – this is up from 42% in February. Just 15% think that the economy will improve, leaving an Economic Optimism Index score of -54. The last time pessimism was this low was in November 2008 (at its worst during the 2008 crisis 75% thought the economy would get worse). Despite this pessimism, around half (49%) believe the Government is handling the coronavirus outbreak well (35% say badly).

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May 2018

Ipsos UK

Most Britons are not very confident that Theresa May will get a good deal for Britain from the Brexit negotiations, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. A third (34%) say they are confident when asked if Prime Minister will get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with other European Union leaders while nearly two-thirds (63%) are not. This shows a slight drop from March when 37% said they were confident and 59% were not confident, and down from 44% with confidence in her in March 2017.

Ipsos MORI February 2019 Political Monitor

Ipsos UK

The document provides polling data from Ipsos MORI on UK voting intentions, satisfaction with political leaders and parties, and economic optimism. Key findings include: - For voting intentions, the Conservatives lead Labour by 4 percentage points (38% to 34%). - Satisfaction with Prime Minister Theresa May is at 33%, with a net satisfaction of -25. Satisfaction with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is lower at 17%. - The economic optimism index stands at -43, with 57% thinking economic conditions will get worse in the next year.

Moving on up: Has Britain’s housing crisis made us a less mobile nation?

ResolutionFoundation

Young people are less mobile today in terms of changing jobs and moving homes compared to previous generations. While compositional changes in the population should have led to increased mobility, the gap in employment rates and wages between local areas has narrowed, reducing incentives for people to move. In particular, the rate of private renters aged 25-39 changing jobs and homes has fallen by two-thirds. Although earnings may be converging nationally, housing costs have risen faster in more productive areas, potentially limiting mobility. Those who do move tend to relocate to lower cost housing areas, and commutes have increased, suggesting people make compromises to balance housing and work.

Ipsos MORI December Political Monitor 2018

Ipsos UK

As Parliament gets ready to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement next week Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals most of the public believe withdrawing from the EU on its terms will be bad for Britain. The poll shows six in ten (62%) think withdrawing under this deal will be bad for the UK as a whole (25% say good), including 47% of Conservatives (40% of whom think it would be good). This is worse than the reaction to the Prime Minister’s Chequers deal in July when 47% thought it would be bad for the country.

Living standards in Greater Manchester

ResolutionFoundation

Ending stagnation: How to boost prosperity across Scotland

ResolutionFoundation

A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation. Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster. What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?

The state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event

ResolutionFoundation

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