What Does (and Doesn't) AI Mean for Effective Altruism?
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Owen Cotton-Barratt (Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute), EA Global X Berlin 2017, Oct 14/15 2017
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Points: 100
Assignment 3: Presentation of Leadership and Management Strategy
Criteria
Unacceptable
Below 60% F
Meets Minimum Expectations
60-69% D
Fair
70-79% C
Proficient
80-89% B
Exemplary
90-100% A
1. Develop a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Weight: 10%
Did not submit or incompletely developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Insufficiently developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Partially developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Satisfactorily developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Thoroughly developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
2. Choose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and describe two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Provide examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
Weight: 20%
Did not submit or incompletely chose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and described two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Did not submit or incompletely provided examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
Insufficiently chose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and described two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Insufficiently provided examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
Partially chose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and described two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Partially provided examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
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See rubric for specific grading criteria.
Name: Reflection Essay Grading Rubric
· Grid View
· List View
Meets Expectations
Approaches Expectations
Does Not Meet Expectations
Depth of Reflection
Points Range:20.8 (32.00%) - 26 (40.00%)
Essay demonstrates an in-depth reflection on and application of the concepts presented in the course materials. Examples are clear and detailed, and interpretations are insightful and well supported.
Points Range:15.6 (24.00%) - 20.54 (31.60%)
Essay demonstrates a general reflection on and application of the concepts presented in the course materials. Appropriate examples may not be provided, and interpretations may not be supported.
Points Range:0 (0.00%) - 15.34 (23.60%)
Essay lacks reflection on or application of the concepts presented in the course materials. Examples and interpretations are missing or unsupported.
Evidence and Practice
Points Range:20.8 (32.00%) - 26 (40.00%)
Essay shows strong evidence of the synthesis of the ideas presented and insights gained.
Points Range:15.6 (24.00%) - 20.54 (31.60%)
Essay shows some evidence of the synthesis of the ideas presented and insights gained.
Points Range:0 (0.00%) - 15.34 (23.60%)
Essay shows no evidence of the synthesis of the ideas presented or insights gained.
Structure
Points Range:5.2 (8.00%) - 6.5 (10.00%)
Essay is of appropriate length, and writing is clear, concise, and well organized with excellent sentence and paragraph construction. Thoughts are expressed in a coherent and logical manner.
Points Range:3.9 (6.00%) - 5.135 (7.90%)
Essay may not be of appropriate length, and writing may not be well organized with good sentence and paragraph construction.
Points Range:0 (0.00%) - 3.835 (5.90%)
Essay is not of appropriate length. Writing is unclear and disorganized. Thoughts ramble and make little sense.
Mechanics and APA Style
Points Range:5.2 (8.00%) - 6.5 (10.00%)
The assignment consistently follows current APA Style and is free from errors in formatting, citation, and references. No grammatical, spelling, or punctuation errors. All sources are cited and referenced correctly.
Points Range:3.9 (6.00%) - 5.135 (7.90%)
The assignment consistently follows current APA Style with only isolated and inconsistent mistakes and/or has a few grammatical, spelling, or punctuation errors. Most sources are cited and referenced correctly.
Points Range:0 (0.00%) - 3.835 (5.90%)
No attempt to follow APA Style is indicated. Sources are not used and/or there is no reference page. Mechanical errors significantly interfere with the readability of the paper.
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The document discusses John Kotter's eight-stage process for leading successful organizational change. It states that in the 21st century, constant and frequent change will be required for survival. It also discusses the mental habits needed to support lifelong learning in a changing environment, including risk-taking, reflection, soliciting input from others, careful listening, and openness. Kotter's eight stages for leading change are outlined.
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Points: 100
Assignment 3: Presentation of Leadership and Management Strategy
Criteria
Unacceptable
Below 60% F
Meets Minimum Expectations
60-69% D
Fair
70-79% C
Proficient
80-89% B
Exemplary
90-100% A
1. Develop a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Weight: 10%
Did not submit or incompletely developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Insufficiently developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Partially developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Satisfactorily developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
Thoroughly developed a PowerPoint presentation in which you focus on overall best practices in organizational leadership.
2. Choose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and describe two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Provide examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
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Insufficiently chose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and described two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Insufficiently provided examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
Partially chose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and described two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Partially provided examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
Satisfactorily chose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and described two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Satisfactorily provided examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
Thoroughly chose two (2) different business leaders that you learned about from the previous two assignments, and described two to three (2-3) fundamental aspects of each of their most important business philosophies. Thoroughly provided examples of the application of such philosophies to support your response.
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— Noah Berlatsky, The Atlantic, 2013.
· What is meant by this statement?
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See rubric for specific grading criteria.
Name: Reflection Essay Grading Rubric
· Grid View
· List View
Meets Expectations
Approaches Expectations
Does Not Meet Expectations
Depth of Reflection
Points Range:20.8 (32.00%) - 26 (40.00%)
Essay demonstrates an in-depth reflection on and application of the concepts presented in the course materials. Examples are clear and detailed, and interpretations are insightful and well supported.
Points Range:15.6 (24.00%) - 20.54 (31.60%)
Essay demonstrates a general reflection on and application of the concepts presented in the course materials. Appropriate examples may not be provided, and interpretations may not be supported.
Points Range:0 (0.00%) - 15.34 (23.60%)
Essay lacks reflection on or application of the concepts presented in the course materials. Examples and interpretations are missing or unsupported.
Evidence and Practice
Points Range:20.8 (32.00%) - 26 (40.00%)
Essay shows strong evidence of the synthesis of the ideas presented and insights gained.
Points Range:15.6 (24.00%) - 20.54 (31.60%)
Essay shows some evidence of the synthesis of the ideas presented and insights gained.
Points Range:0 (0.00%) - 15.34 (23.60%)
Essay shows no evidence of the synthesis of the ideas presented or insights gained.
Structure
Points Range:5.2 (8.00%) - 6.5 (10.00%)
Essay is of appropriate length, and writing is clear, concise, and well organized with excellent sentence and paragraph construction. Thoughts are expressed in a coherent and logical manner.
Points Range:3.9 (6.00%) - 5.135 (7.90%)
Essay may not be of appropriate length, and writing may not be well organized with good sentence and paragraph construction.
Points Range:0 (0.00%) - 3.835 (5.90%)
Essay is not of appropriate length. Writing is unclear and disorganized. Thoughts ramble and make little sense.
Mechanics and APA Style
Points Range:5.2 (8.00%) - 6.5 (10.00%)
The assignment consistently follows current APA Style and is free from errors in formatting, citation, and references. No grammatical, spelling, or punctuation errors. All sources are cited and referenced correctly.
Points Range:3.9 (6.00%) - 5.135 (7.90%)
The assignment consistently follows current APA Style with only isolated and inconsistent mistakes and/or has a few grammatical, spelling, or punctuation errors. Most sources are cited and referenced correctly.
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the issue that is needs to be addressed and the aim of our project is to design a system that is able to convert the vibrational energy into electrical energy in order to generating a useful energy instead of wasted it. Generate an electrical energy source with less effect in the earth and does not pollute the environment. Therefore, the project target is involving to design of suitable electromechanical energy devices and building a power electronic circuit by which rectification is achieved.
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Executive summary
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Table of contents
41.Introduction
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42.1 [… Sub-heading…]
42.2 [… Sub-heading…]
43.[… Heading ….]
43.1 […. Sub-heading…]
43.2[… Sub-heading…]
44.[…Heading ….]
4Conclusion (or Recommendations and Conclusions)
4Reference list
4Appendix 1 – [… Title of Appendix 1…]
4Appendix 2 – [… Title of Appendix 2 …]
1.
Introduction
[…type paragraphs here…]2.
[… Section heading…]
[…type paragraphs here…]
2.1
[… Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
2.2
[… Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
2.2.1
[…Sub-sub heading…] [… type paragraphs here…]
Table 1: [… Title of table …]
Source: [… explain where the data originally comes from; e.g. provide citation of Annual Report ...]
Figure 1: [… Title of figure …]
Source: [… explain where the data originally comes from; e.g. provide citation of Annual Report ...]3.
[… Heading ….]
[… type paragraphs here …]
3.1
[…. Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
3.2
[… Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
4.
[…Heading ….]
[… type paragraphs here…]
And so on
Conclusion (or Recommendations and Conclusions)
[… type paragraphs here…]
References
[… type references here, in alphabetical order…]
Appendix 1 – [… Title of Appendix 1…]
Appendix 2 – [… Title of Appendix 2 …]
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The document discusses different definitions and meanings of strategy. It identifies five ways strategy can be understood: as a plan, pattern, position, perspective, and ploy. A plan involves mapping out future actions, a pattern refers to consistency in behavior over time, a position creates an advantage, a perspective is an organization's values and priorities, and a ploy uses deception against competitors. The document advocates using a mix of definitions and notes that the appropriate approach depends on an organization's ability to predict the future and adapt to unexpected changes.
Innovative Strategies
The document discusses strategies for innovation at both the societal and organizational levels. It provides 10 rules for strategic innovators, which include having clarity of direction, clear communication, reducing bureaucracy, shared purpose, implementing R&D at institutional and local levels, tolerating risks and failures, quickly dropping things that don't work, being irreverent to established norms, funding "crazy ideas", and avoiding an accounting approach. It also discusses managing the present while selectively forgetting the past to create the future, and the need for a strategic balance between competition in the present and future.
The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Create It
This document discusses techniques for predicting and creating the future. It argues that the best way to predict the future is to create it through envisioning desired future states and defining goals and plans to achieve them. The document outlines a desired state planning model involving defining a current state, transition state, and desired state. It emphasizes defining a compelling vision and involving stakeholders to drive change. Researchers are challenged to move beyond just analyzing current and past states, and to help clients envision and build momentum to achieve desired futures. The key is to challenge satisfaction and status quos by developing dissatisfaction with the present and inspiration for an achievable future state.
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101 Business Insights is the first business networking site that rewards members for their time and input. As a member you get real, asset-backed rewards for commenting, posting or even simply hanging out at the site. It’s our way of thanking you for engaging with and growing the network, and for being part of the most vibrant business community on the net.
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PASE Academic style KS 2019.pptx
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Pingthink corp
The document outlines an agenda for a growth acceleration workshop. The key objectives are to understand growth as a default option, discuss various growth choices and approaches, and examine case studies and examples. The agenda includes an introduction, discussion of growth architecture and application through a case study. Unconventional approaches and successful management techniques will also be discussed. The workshop format aims to be informal yet structured, with open discussion and flexibility to change emphasis.
2018 Feb 03 Becoming a Better Student - [ab] - for Methodist Engineering Co...
2018 Feb 03 Becoming a Better Student - [ab] - for Methodist Engineering Co...viswanadham vangapally
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Nowadays the Reliance on electrical energy became very curcial. there are different sources of energy the most significant source is the fossil fuels such as petroleum which people extract and convert it into electrical power generator. However, in the future there is a serious risk on executing the fossil fuel like diesel, petrol and natural gas because all these types are non-renewable sources of energy. So, we have to be aware and keep into consideration that it is a serious problem.
Many researches have been conducted to find alternative sources of energy that are renewable. In our project, we tried to find a suitable way to convert vibration energy into electrical energy. All machines and vehicles have vibration with frequency in it. This vibrational energy is considered as unused and nun invest energy. For that reason, it can be used to generate electrical energy with the benefit of reducing the load of other nonrenewable source of energy. The convergent from vibrational energy into electrical energy is a renewable source of energy. In our report we discussed about the methods of converting vibration energy into electrical energy. Also, we discus about many suitable designs as a solution of our project target. [1]
1. Problem Statement
the issue that is needs to be addressed and the aim of our project is to design a system that is able to convert the vibrational energy into electrical energy in order to generating a useful energy instead of wasted it. Generate an electrical energy source with less effect in the earth and does not pollute the environment. Therefore, the project target is involving to design of suitable electromechanical energy devices and building a power electronic circuit by which rectification is achieved.
2. Project & Design Objectives
1. Generate alternative sources of energy that are renewable.
2. High efficiency in a system designed is one of the main important goals in an engineering process
3. Generate an electrical energy source with less impact in the environment.
4. Select and modification the electromechanical energy devices.
3. Summary of report structure
Listing how many chapters you have with the brief description for each chapter.
This report has a description for each chapter as the following:
II. The first chapter which is the abstract that chapter is describes the brief summary of the hole report and depth analysis of a project subject. The second chapter which is introduction that describes the main aspects of the project , Describes the issues and performance what we are trying to achieve in order to solve the project problem.The third chapter which is background and literature review it describes the depth overview about the topic and found any possible solutions. The fourth chapter is conceptual design that describes the requirements, aspects and criteria of the project. The sixth chapter which is the preliminary proposed design that chapter is describes the P ...
Strategic thinking
Various researches have shown that the majority of organizations, especially in the developing countries, have more of operational thinking rather than strategic thinking at the core of its management approach. Strategy has become an overused and at the same time, misused world in management world where we take it as obvious statement for something important we say about our management and business. In the face of the competition and change that exists in today’s market, organizations and their leadership must take strategic thinking approach in order to move the organization forward toward a new and more successful future. This session starts with an exercise of test of strategic thinking level of the participants and thus explains the meaning of strategy and being strategic. It exposes the difference between operational thinker, strategic planner and strategic thinker. The disciplines, approaches, competencies, critical areas and personal attributes of strategic thinker will be introduced with along with the explanation of topic ‘what limits our strategic thinking’. The session ends with the explanation of the methods of developing strategic thinking among the managers and leaders of the organization and how we can utilize such strategic thinking in our business in order to achieve higher goals of the organization.
Stock Picking Strategies
The document provides an overview of 10 popular stock-picking strategies: fundamental analysis, qualitative analysis, value investing, growth investing, GARP investing, income investing, CANSLIM, Dogs of the Dow, and technical analysis. It discusses the importance of analyzing both quantitative and qualitative factors about a company to determine its intrinsic value and whether its stock is under or overvalued. While there is no foolproof strategy, these approaches can be effective if used appropriately based on an investor's goals and risk tolerance.
How to write a business plan
Tips on writing a business plan from an investor's perspective.
Please visit:
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For an improved version of these slides
Strategic Planning for Club Owners and Management
Strategic Planning for Club Owners & General Managers: All Successful Businesses Start With A Strong Foundation.
[AIB subject title and subject AQF Level][Student name][St.docx
[AIB subject title and subject AQF Level]
[Student name]
[Student number]
[Title of assignment]
Word count: [.. insert word count here ..]
Executive summary
[… type text here …]
Table of contents
41.Introduction
42.[… Section heading…]
42.1 [… Sub-heading…]
42.2 [… Sub-heading…]
43.[… Heading ….]
43.1 […. Sub-heading…]
43.2[… Sub-heading…]
44.[…Heading ….]
4Conclusion (or Recommendations and Conclusions)
4Reference list
4Appendix 1 – [… Title of Appendix 1…]
4Appendix 2 – [… Title of Appendix 2 …]
1.
Introduction
[…type paragraphs here…]2.
[… Section heading…]
[…type paragraphs here…]
2.1
[… Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
2.2
[… Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
2.2.1
[…Sub-sub heading…] [… type paragraphs here…]
Table 1: [… Title of table …]
Source: [… explain where the data originally comes from; e.g. provide citation of Annual Report ...]
Figure 1: [… Title of figure …]
Source: [… explain where the data originally comes from; e.g. provide citation of Annual Report ...]3.
[… Heading ….]
[… type paragraphs here …]
3.1
[…. Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
3.2
[… Sub-heading…]
[… type paragraphs here…]
4.
[…Heading ….]
[… type paragraphs here…]
And so on
Conclusion (or Recommendations and Conclusions)
[… type paragraphs here…]
References
[… type references here, in alphabetical order…]
Appendix 1 – [… Title of Appendix 1…]
Appendix 2 – [… Title of Appendix 2 …]
5
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Sheet1Grading for this assignment will be based on answer quality, logic / organization of the paper, and language and writing skills, using the following rubric.Points: 200Assignment 1: Portfolio ManagementCriteriaUnacceptableFairProficientExemplaryBelow 70% F70-79% C80-89% B90-100% A1. Analyze the relationship between risk and rate of return, and suggest how you would formulate a portfolio that will minimize risk and maximize rate of return.Did not submit or incompletely analyzed the relationship between risk and rate of return, and / or did not submit or incompletely formulated a portfolio that will minimize risk and maximize rate of return.Partially analyzed the relationship between risk and rate of return, and / or partially suggested how you would formulate a portfolio that will minimize risk and maximize rate of return.Satisfactorily analyzed the relationship between risk and rate of return, and satisfactorily suggested how you would formulate a portfolio that will minimize risk and maximize rate of return.Thoroughly analyzed the relationship between risk and rate of return, and thoroughly suggested how you would formulate a portfolio that will .
30 strategy models over 75 years
This document summarizes 30 strategy models over 75 years. It provides brief descriptions of models including SWOT analysis, Porter's 5 Forces, Porter's 3 Generic Strategies, Burgelman's Strategy Dynamics Model, Porter's Value Chain, and Prahalad and Hart's Bottom of the Pyramid model among others. For each model there is a short explanation of the key aspects and how it can be applied to understanding strategy. The document aims to outline various strategic thinking tools for basic awareness and understanding of strategic planning approaches.
30 strategy models over 75 years
This document outlines 30 strategy models used over the past 75 years. It provides brief descriptions of 10 models, including SWOT analysis, Porter's 5 Forces model, Porter's 3 generic strategies, Burgelman's strategy dynamics model, Porter's value chain model, core competencies and the resource-based view, Nonaka and Takeuchi's knowledge spiral, Peters, Athos and Waterman's 7S framework, scenario planning, and Ansoff's growth grid. The models are tools for strategic planning and analysis that help assess the competitive environment and identify appropriate strategies.
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The program will expand our perspectives and appreciation for our blue planet, build new foundations for our relationship to the ocean, and ignite a wave of action toward necessary change.
Border towns and spaces of (in)visibility.pdf
This report explores the significance of border towns and spaces for strengthening responses to young people on the move. In particular it explores the linkages of young people to local service centres with the aim of further developing service, protection, and support strategies for migrant children in border areas across the region. The report is based on a small-scale fieldwork study in the border towns of Chipata and Katete in Zambia conducted in July 2023. Border towns and spaces provide a rich source of information about issues related to the informal or irregular movement of young people across borders, including smuggling and trafficking. They can help build a picture of the nature and scope of the type of movement young migrants undertake and also the forms of protection available to them. Border towns and spaces also provide a lens through which we can better understand the vulnerabilities of young people on the move and, critically, the strategies they use to navigate challenges and access support.
The findings in this report highlight some of the key factors shaping the experiences and vulnerabilities of young people on the move – particularly their proximity to border spaces and how this affects the risks that they face. The report describes strategies that young people on the move employ to remain below the radar of visibility to state and non-state actors due to fear of arrest, detention, and deportation while also trying to keep themselves safe and access support in border towns. These strategies of (in)visibility provide a way to protect themselves yet at the same time also heighten some of the risks young people face as their vulnerabilities are not always recognised by those who could offer support.
In this report we show that the realities and challenges of life and migration in this region and in Zambia need to be better understood for support to be strengthened and tuned to meet the specific needs of young people on the move. This includes understanding the role of state and non-state stakeholders, the impact of laws and policies and, critically, the experiences of the young people themselves. We provide recommendations for immediate action, recommendations for programming to support young people on the move in the two towns that would reduce risk for young people in this area, and recommendations for longer term policy advocacy.
Practical guide for the celebration of World Environment Day on june 5th.
Land degradation, desertification and drought resilience. UN ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME -WORLD ENVIRONMENT DAY 2024.
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1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
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3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
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Texas Water Development Board Updates June 2024
Presented at June 6-7 Texas Alliance of Groundwater Districts Business Meeting
A guide to the International day of Potatoes 2024 - May 30th
Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)
A Guide to AI for Smarter Nonprofits - Dr. Cori Faklaris, UNC Charlotte
A Guide to AI for Smarter Nonprofits - Dr. Cori Faklaris, UNC CharlotteUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte
Working with data is a challenge for many organizations. Nonprofits in particular may need to collect and analyze sensitive, incomplete, and/or biased historical data about people. In this talk, Dr. Cori Faklaris of UNC Charlotte provides an overview of current AI capabilities and weaknesses to consider when integrating current AI technologies into the data workflow. The talk is organized around three takeaways: (1) For better or sometimes worse, AI provides you with “infinite interns.” (2) Give people permission & guardrails to learn what works with these “interns” and what doesn’t. (3) Create a roadmap for adding in more AI to assist nonprofit work, along with strategies for bias mitigation.
Transit-Oriented Development Study Working Group Meeting
This presentation on TOD best practices and model zoning was shared with the Cuyahoga County TOD working group on June 5, 2024.
Contributi dei parlamentari del PD - Contributi L. 3/2019
DI SEGUITO SONO PUBBLICATI, AI SENSI DELL'ART. 11 DELLA LEGGE N. 3/2019, GLI IMPORTI RICEVUTI DALL'ENTRATA IN VIGORE DELLA SUDDETTA NORMA (31/01/2019) E FINO AL MESE SOLARE ANTECEDENTE QUELLO DELLA PUBBLICAZIONE SUL PRESENTE SITO
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What Does (and Doesn't) AI Mean for Effective Altruism?
- 1. What does (and doesn’t) AI mean for effective altruism? Owen Cotton-Barratt 12th August 2017
- 2. Background ideas (moral) The long-term future is crucial
- 3. Background ideas (moral) The long-term future is crucial (empirical) AI could be radically transformative
- 4. Background ideas (moral) The long-term future is crucial (empirical) AI could be radically transformative (empirical) Influencing AI is a major lever
- 5. Background ideas (moral) The long-term future is crucial (empirical) AI could be radically transformative (empirical) Influencing AI is a major lever (empirical) Short timelines are plausible
- 10. AI timelines
- 11. AI timelines Predicting technology is hard
- 12. AI timelines Predicting technology is hard We should have broad distributions Graph from Grace et al. (2017)
- 13. Timeline scenarios Imminent: ~5 years This generation: ~15 years Next generation: ~40 years Distant: ~100 years
- 14. Imminent: ~5 years Key actors maybe known
- 15. Imminent: ~5 years Key actors maybe known No time for long processes
- 16. This generation: ~15 years Building careers
- 17. This generation: ~15 years Building careers Building academic fields
- 18. Next generation: ~40 years People retire, paradigms shift
- 19. Next generation: ~40 years People retire, paradigms shift Correct > fast
- 20. Distant: ~100 years Predictability low
- 21. Distant: ~100 years Predictability low Build broad institutions
- 22. Distant: ~100 years Predictability low Build broad institutions Other transformative technologies matter
- 23. What should we focus on? Strategies
- 24. What should we focus on? Strategies Don’t take views
- 25. What should we focus on? Strategies Don’t take views May miss best actions
- 26. What should we focus on? Strategies Don’t take views May miss best actions Most likely Probability
- 27. What should we focus on? Strategies Don’t take views May miss best actions Most likely Ignores leverage Probability Leverage
- 28. What should we focus on? Strategies Don’t take views May miss best actions Most likely Ignores leverage Highest likelihood*leverage Probability Leverage
- 29. What should we focus on? Strategies Don’t take views May miss best actions Most likely Ignores leverage Highest likelihood*leverage Leverage varies Probability Leverage
- 30. What should we focus on? Strategies Don’t take views May miss best actions Most likely Ignores leverage Highest likelihood*leverage Leverage varies Think about portfolio? Probability Leverage
- 31. Portfolio approach Collectively discuss: Probabilities, leverages, diminishing returns Ideal portfolio
- 32. Portfolio approach Collectively discuss: Probabilities, leverages, diminishing returns Ideal portfolio Individually consider: Deviations from portfolio Comparative advantage
- 37. Comparative advantage at different levels
- 38. Comparative advantage at different levels
- 39. Comparative advantage at different levels
- 40. Comparative advantage at different levels
- 41. Thoughts on portfolio approach Most projects should have a main scenario in mind
- 42. Thoughts on portfolio approach Most projects should have a main scenario in mind Be careful about things that are bad for other scenarios
- 43. Importance of community epistemics
- 44. Importance of community epistemics
- 45. Institutions for aggregating knowledge
- 46. Institutions for aggregating knowledge
- 47. Good local norms
- 48. Good local norms
- 49. Communicate reasons for beliefs
- 50. What should individual EAs do about AI? Consider assumptions
- 51. What should individual EAs do about AI? Consider assumptions Consider personal comparative advantage
- 52. What should individual EAs do about AI? Consider assumptions Consider personal comparative advantage Help promote good community epistemics