2014-11-07 by Ahmed El-Geneidy Get the video and more info here: http://www.brt.cl/webinar-transit-to-the-future-a-different-perspective-on-public-transit-market/

1. Transpor tation Research at McGi l l
Ahmed El-Geneidy
BRT - Centre of Excellence
Webinar Series
November 7th, 2014
Transit to the Future
A different perspective on public transit market

2. October 2015 is not far

3. This is where we are

4. This is where we will be soon

5. Challenges
 Increasing transit ridership
 A better understanding of transit market
 Retaining riders
 Attracting new users
 Retaining users
 Satisfaction
 Loyalty

6. Transit market
Captives
users
Irregular
Choice
users
Potential
users
Auto
Captives
Riders Non-Riders
Regular
Commuter Type
Current and Potential Transit Market
Change Area
Krizek, K., & El-Geneidy, A. (2007)

7. Transit
market
segmentation
Part 1a
Case Study: Market
segmentation of Montreal
Part 1b
Case Study: Market
segmentation of Vancouver
Input: Data
Société de transport de
Montréal’s Customer
Satisfaction Survey
Input: Data
TransLink’s Customer
Satisfaction Survey
(Vancouver)
What kind of transit segments are
present in Montreal and Vancouver,
and how similar are they?
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

8. van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

9. van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

10. Transit market
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

11. Transit market
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

12. Weekday Weekend
Regular Irregular Regular Irregular
Choice
Captive by
choice
Captive
Choice
Captive by
choice
Captive
Choice
Captive by
choice
Captive
Choice
Captive by
choice
Captive
STM 50.13% 19.05% 9.51% 7.29% 2.53% 6.18% 3.54% -- -- 1.77% -- --
TransLink 32.80% -- 2.44% 21.09% 8.29% 12.67% 3.99% 1.11% 4.65% 2.67% 10.29% --

13. Transit market
Captives
users
Irregular
Choice
users
Potential
users
Auto
Captives
Riders Non-Riders
Regular
Commuter Type
Current and Potential Transit Market
Change Area
Krizek, K., & El-Geneidy, A. (2007)

14. Transit market
Irregular
Riders Non-Riders
Regular
Commuter Type
Current Transit Market
Captives
by Choice
Choice
users
Captives
users
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

15. It’s a new market

16. With different dynamics

17. Different needs

18. Factors affecting the market
 Low cost of transit
 Convenience
 Service Improvement
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

19. Some trends from Montreal

20. Trip Counts by Mode

21. Trip Counts by Mode

22. Who is using transit
Grimsrud, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

23. Longer waiting times

24. More crowded

25. Some breakdowns

26. Improvement strategies
 Increase speed
 Decrease delay
 Be on-time
 Be cool

27. Differences in perspectives
Using indicators
(e.g. OTP and
Travel time)
Service
delivery
scale
High
Low
Passengers
Perception
Actual service
Travel time
Waiting time
The average
Satisfaction
scale
High
Low
Agencies
Average
performance
Diab, E., Badami, M. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

28. Change in perspectives
Using indicators
(e.g. OTP and
Travel time)
Service
delivery
scale
High
Low
Passengers
Travel time
Waiting time
The average
Satisfaction
scale
High
Low
Agencies
Actual service
The implementation of improvement strategy(s)
Perception of
change
Earlier
perceptions
Witnessing the
implementation
Average
performance
Diab, E., Badami, M. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

29. Route 67 and 467 story
 One of the heaviest used bus
corridor on the island of
Montreal
 Average of 41,000 riders per
weekday in 2011
 East of the central business
district
 With an average length of
9.56 km [5.9 mi]
 Connects to two metro
stations
 Joliette - Saint-Michel
Saint-Michel
metro
Joliette
metro
Downtown
Montreal
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

30. Improvement strategies
 Express bus service (3/2009)
 Exclusive bus lane (8/2009)
 Articulated buses (2/2010)
 Signal priority (9/2010)

31. Running time savings
Estimates versus actual savings
Route 467 (Express) Route 67 (Regular)
Scenario Optimistic Pessimistic Realistic After Optimistic Pessimistic Realistic After
Peak AM Southbound 38.4% 11.3% 19.9% 13.7% 21.7% 0.0% 12.5% 1.1%
Peak AM Northbound 45.3% 12.5% 23.0% 14.2% 24.7% 0.0% 14.2% 1.6%
Peak PM Southbound 38.6% 11.4% 20.0% 13.3% 21.8% 0.0% 12.6% -0.2%
Peak PM Northbound 39.1% 11.3% 20.4% 12.2% 21.8% 0.0% 12.5% 1.5%
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2012)

32. All savings in running time
Estimated Running time in seconds and the percentage of change comparing to Route 67
initial situations
Route 467
Scenario
Initial
situation
Reserved
lanes
Articulated
Buses
TSP
North AM Peak 1440(-11.5%) 1486(-8.7%) 1467(-9.8%)
North PM Peak 1534(-10.8%) 1498(-12.9%) 1544(-10.2%) 1526(-11.3%)
South AM Peak 1500(-11.1%) 1465(-13.2%) 1511(-10.5%) 1492(-11.5%)
South PM Peak 1588(-10.8%) 1634(-8.2%) 1616(-9.3%)
Route 67
Scenario
Initial
situation
OPUS
After the
limited-stop
service
Reserved
lanes
After Articulated
date
After TSP date
North AM Peak 1627 1677(3.1%) 1632(0.3%) 1665 (2.4%) 1661 (2.1%)
North PM Peak 1720 1770(2.9%) 1725(0.3%) 1690 (-1.7%) 1724 (0.2%) 1719 (-0.1%)
South AM Peak 1687 1737(3.0%) 1692(0.3%) 1657 (-1.8%) 1694 (0.4%) 1686 (-0.1%)
South PM Peak 1781 1831(2.8%) 1787(0.4%) 1819 (2.2%) 1815 (1.9%)
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2012)

33. Customer surveys
 Route 467 is 10.5%
faster
 Route 67 is 1%
slower
 Survey passengers
2011, 2012, & 2013
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

34. Route 67 Travel Time Change
Shorter Travel Time Longer Travel Time No change
55%
10%
35%
Route 467 Travel Time Change
Shorter Travel Time Longer Travel Time No change
49%
7%
44%
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

35. Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

36. Take home lesson
 Keep younger generations on-board
 Try to attract more of them and make them happy
 Free wifi
 Cycling transit integrations
 Better information
 Implement improvements in phases

37. The long term future
 The future is in
public transit along
heavily served
corridors
 Moving people
quickly, with low
cost, and in
comfortable and
attractive vehicles.

38. Acknowledgment
Ehab Diab Michael Grimsrud Dea van Lierop

39. Data, support and funding
 The Société de Transport de Montréal provided
data and partially funded this research
 The Natural Sciences and Engineering
Research Council of Canada (NSERC) partially
funded this research
 Several members of the TRAM research group,
participated in conducting the on-site survey

40. Transpor tation Research at McGi l l
Transit to the Future
A different perspective on public transit market
Ahmed El-Geneidy
ahmed.elgeneidy@mcgill.ca