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Watershed Scale 
Conservation: How Much is 
Enough?
SWCS
July 29, 2014
Green Bay
Saginaw Bay
WLEB
Agriculturally Intensive Watersheds in 
the Great Lakes
Outcomes at 
Scale
Supply Chain 
and Policies 
Great Lakes Ag Strategy:
Issue Specific
Collaborative
Goal Driven
Accountable and Adaptive
Agriculture BMPs & Water  
Nature
Setting the 
Decision 
PointDesired 
Condition
Current 
Condition
Obtaining Sustainable Agricultural 
Watershed Goals $ Cost
How Much Conservation
is Enough?
Mary Fales, Saginaw Bay Watershed Project Director,
The Nature Conservancy
How Much Conservation
is Enough?
Important take home points:
• We need a goal and plan!
How Much Conservation
is Enough?
Important take home points:
• We need a outcome-based goal and plan!
• Long term vision
• Target BMPs to highest ROI
• Track progress
• Look for long term sustainability
How Much is Enough?
How Much Is Enough?
Intense Algae Blooms
It Depends on Your Goal
Acres of BMPs
Total $$ Spent
Conservation Effects
Assessment Program (CEAP)
Scott P. Sowa, Matthew Herbert, John Legge, Mary Fales, Kim Hall,
Patrick Doran, Sagar Mysorekar, Layla Cole, Tia Bowe, Gust Annis,
A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Lizhu Wang, & Charles Rewa
Informing Strategic Conservation:
Body of Work That Supports Many Strategies
Getting the right information to the right people in the
right format to support; 1) setting realistic goals, 2)
strategically implement practices, & 3) track progress
Informing Strategic Conservation
Getting the right conservation practices to the right places, in the
right amount, at the right time, as efficiently as possible, to
address the right problem and achieve realistic goals
Phases of Work
Phase 1 – link fish health to water quality
Phase 2 – link water quality to BMPs
Phase 3 – decision tools to target and track (MSU-IWR)
Phase 4 – Implementation!
partnering to set goals and test
innovative strategies to achieve them
• Over 300 
actual data 
points
Phase 1 – Link fish health to WQ
• SWAT model gave  
us predicted  WQ 
at each point
Phase 1: Link fish health to WQ
–At what point are water quality variables no 
longer limiting?
–Other factors still play a role
Which Variables Are Limiting and Where?
PHOSPHORUS NITROGEN
SEDIMENT/FLOW
Phase 2:
Linking WQ to BMPS (and ultimately fish health)
• Used SWAT to model changes  in water 
quality under different  scenarios (12 BMPs)
• Current condition
• Medium (25%) 
• High (50%)
• Historic Condition
• Nutrient Management/
Waste Utilization 
• Conservation Crop Rotation 
• Filter Strip 
• Conservation Cover 
• Residue and Tillage Management
No‐Till/Strip Till/Direct Seed 
• Mulch Till, Residue Management
• Residue Management, No‐Till/Strip Till 
• Cover Crop 
• Pasture and Hay Planting 
• Wetland Creation/Restoration 
Selected BMPs
Sub‐watershed Comparison:
Fish Community Health
Current Condition 25% BMP
Implementation
Sub‐watershed Comparison:
Fish Community Health
Current Condition 50% BMP
Implementation
Dose Response Curve
BMPs          Fish Health
Sub-watershed Comparison:
Fish Community Health
50% BMP
Implementation
• ~$7.7 M to achieve non-
limiting conditions for all 8
variables at the OUTLET of
the other 3 sub-watersheds
• More than $44 million to
achieve non-limiting
conditions in all streams of
four focal watersheds
• What are realistic goals?
• Lower expectations?
• Conservation innovation?
The Highlights!
TNC and partners have developed the
science so we can determine:
1. HOW MUCH: What percentage of the land needs to be
treated with practices
2. WHERE: Where conservation practices need to be
implemented
3. OUTCOME ORIENTED: All the work is tied to improving
fish community health
Phase 3: Decision Tools
Getting the right information to the right people in 
the right format at the right time to support  the 
logistics of strategic conservation
Context Target and Track
Sediment and Nutrient Calculators
www.iwr.msu.edu/glwms/
Jeremiah Asher, GIS Project Manager
Laura Young, Research Assistant
Michigan State University
Institute of Water Research
69th Soil Water Conservation Society International Annual Conference
Making Waves in Conservation
July 29, Lombard, Illinois
Great Lakes Watershed 
Management System Walkthrough
Watershed Scale Conservation: How much is Enough?
Outline
• Underlying Models
– HIT
– L‐THIA
• Types of Analyses
• Walkthrough Example
UNDERLYING MODELS
Background ¦ Models
High Impact Targeting (HIT)
HIT estimates sediment loading from agricultural 
lands to nearby streams
Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Analysis (L‐THIA)
L‐THIA estimates run‐off volumes and pollutant 
loads
HIT Model
HIT: Field Evaluations
35
Results: 70% of the time HIT maps correctly characterized the landscape. 
Basic L-THIA Model
Components
Hydrologic component estimates average annual direct 
runoff based on the Curve Number method with daily 
rainfall data
Water quality component estimates pollutant loadings 
using estimated direct runoff and coefficients 
associated with land uses
36
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Nonpoint Source Pollution
37
L‐THIA produces 
Average Annual 
Pollutant Results 
for sediment, 
nutrients, a series 
of metals, and 
bacterial indicators
(e.g. lbs of Nitrogen 
per year)
Available L‐THIA NPS Outputs in 
GLWMS:
Total Runoff
Nitrogen
Phosphorous
Total Suspended Solids
Lead
Copper
Zinc
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
SYSTEM WALKTHROUGH
www.iwr.msu.edu/glwms
View Baseline NPS
• Estimates baseline nonpoint source pollutant 
loadings
Calculate a Baseline Change
• Estimates the change in runoff and NPS 
pollutant loadings based on a land cover 
change or best management practice
Compare 2 Scenarios
• Specify two different land cover or practices 
(before and after)
• Allows you to set your own baseline
• Useful for when detailed knowledge is 
available for a land area
http://www.ars.usda.gov/pandp/docs.htm?do
cid=9372 Photo courtesy of USDA ARS
Conventional Tillage
No Till with Cover Crop
QUESTIONS?
www.iwr.msu.edu/glwms
Laura Young
youngla9@msu.edu
517‐353‐8587
Phase 4: Test Innovative Strategies
Cass River Watershed Pilot (Sanilac CD)
– Test if information and decision tools can foster
changes via traditional Farm Bill to meet
conservation action goals
Saginaw Bay Regional Conservation
Partnership Program (RCPP)
– Set watershed scale sustainability goals and
related conservation action goals to drive changes
in behavior through supply chain demand
Pay for Performance in the Bad River
Watershed (Great Lakes Commission grant)
– Set ecologically meaningful sediment reduction
goals and use online tools to pay farmers per ton
of sediment reduced
New Technology with Traditional Funding 
Models: Utilize the Farm Bill
Targeting Practices Using 
Traditional Farm Bill Programs ‐ Partner: Sanilac and Tuscola 
Conservation Districts, MSU‐IWR
‐ Mott Foundation Grant
‐ Use modeling to select areas for 
highest ROI
‐ Targeted technical assistance & 
outreach
‐ Using the Great Lakes Watershed 
Management System to quantify 
outcomes
Cass River Watershed Demo Project
COVER CROPS
WETLAND RESTORATION
STRIP TILL
EDUCATION
New Funding Models: 
Pay for Performance
Sediment Reduction in the 
Bad River Watershed ‐ Partner: Gratiot Conservation 
District, NRCS
‐ Great Lakes Commission Grant 
($250,000)
‐ Develop a watershed goal for 
sediment reduction 
‐ Using the sediment calculator to 
determine reduction amount
‐ Set a payment rate for sediment 
reduction ($/ton)
New Funding Models: 
Drain Fee Reduction Project
Shiawassee River Watershed
‐ Partners: County Drain 
Commissioner, MSU‐IWR, local 
conservation district, CD
‐ Cook Family Foundation
‐ Develop a watershed goal for 
sediment reduction 
‐ Set a discount value for sediment 
reduction ($/ton)
‐ Using the sediment calculator to 
determine reduction amount
Opportunities with 
new Farm Bill
Regional Conservation Partnership 
Program
PartnershipsCollaboration
IncentivesFoundations
NGO’s
Outcomes
Corporations
Agri-
Business
Saginaw Bay Watershed RCPP
‐ Partners: Many!
INNOVATIONS:
1. Set ecologically relevant 
implementation goals
2. Use online tools to target and track 
progress (Quantify Outcomes)
3. Agribusiness as the Delivery 
Mechanism
• It  can become part of everyday 
business – efficient/cost‐effective
• Much broader reach and much 
greater trust
• Scalable to Great Lakes and beyond
Saginaw Bay Watershed RCPP
LEADS:
– Michigan Agri-Business Association
– The Nature Conservancy
AGRONOMY RETAILERS:
– Star of the West Milling Co.
– Crop Production Services
– Helena Chemical Co.
– Brown Milling
– Michigan Agricultural Commodities
– Auburn Bean and Grain Co.
– Wilbur Ellis
– Cooperative Elevator Company
COMMODITY GROUPS:
– Michigan Bean Commission
– Michigan Sugar
– Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee
– Michigan Milk Producers Association
– Michigan Corn Growers Association
– Michigan Wheat Program
CONSERVATION GROUPS
– Ducks Unlimited
– Delta Institute
– Wild Turkey Federation
HIGHER EDUCATION
– Michigan State University
STATE AGENCIES
– Michigan Department of Natural
Resources (MDNR)
– Michigan Department of
Environmental Quality (MDEQ)
– Michigan Department of Agriculture
and Rural Development (MDARD)
 CORPORATIONS
– Kelloggs, Coca-Cola
– AgriDrain
– Ecosystem Services Exchange
New Funding Models: 
Regional Conservation Partnership Program
‐ Goal: at least 55,000 acres of 
conservation practices 
‐ Federal Funding: $20M (for 
farmers)
‐ Huge opportunity to leverage 
federal funding
‐ Technical expertise
‐ Developing goals and enhancing tools
‐ Training the project team
‐ Outreach: awareness and marketing
‐ Tracking progress over time
‐ Scaling Up!
© Scott Warren
Achieving Conservation at Scale with
Industry in Western Lake Erie Basin
The Nature Conservancy
www.nature.org/wleb
SWCS Conference, Lombard, IL
Lauren Lindemann
llindemann@tnc.org
© Scott Warren
Cumulative Impacts
Continually Developing 4R
Nutrient Stewardship Certification
Building Relationships can
Scale Conservation & Profits
Year 1
Onsite Audit
Year 2
Onsite Audit in the
first certification
cycle, possible
Desk Audit in later
certification cycles
Year 3
Desk Audit for
NSPs that have
performed well in
previous years.
$600 Annual Registration Fee
+
Audit Costs (estimated from $900-$1100/year paid to auditor)
Grower Customers
Nutrient Service Providers
Society
Triple Bottom Line Evaluation
Lake Erie - 2014
Who has funded the development
of the 4R Certification Program?
© Scott Warren
www.4Rcertified.org
Lauren Lindemann
www.nature.org/wleb
Supply Chain Partnerships
SWCS Annual 
Conference 
July 28th, 2014
Our mission is to conserve
the lands and waters on
which all life depends
We pursue non-
confrontational, pragmatic
solutions to conservation
challenges.
Patagonia grasslands, Argentina ©Bridget Besaw
The Nature Conservancy 
has helped protect 
more than  119 million 
acres of land worldwide.
River leading to Iliamna Lake, Alaska habitat the gravel
bottoms provide habitat for king salmon ©Ami Vitale
94
A Title
95
A Title
96
The agricultural challenge: Feeding 
humanity while conserving nature
Sustainable Intensification of 
Agriculture
Global Nitrogen, Phosphorus and 
Irrigation Use
Dead Zones of the World
99
Major known eutrophic and hypoxic areas. Reprinted from Selman et al. 
6.6
7.9
9.9
12.4
10.6
9.0 9.3
10.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1980 1990 2000 2010
billionbushelscornandmilliontonsnutrient(N,P2O5,K2O)
Corn Production Nutrient Use on Corn
Source: Computed by TFI from data reported by NASS, USDA.
+87%
- 4%
U.S. Corn Production and Nutrient Use on Corn
4R Nutrient Stewardship
Sustainability
A management strategy
WLEB 4R Certification
Supply Chain Initiatives: 
Field to Market 
What is the Fieldprint Calculator?
An online education tool for row crop farmers that 
indexes their agronomics and practices to a fieldprint
Helps growers evaluate their farming decisions and 
compare their sustainability performance 
– In the areas of:
• Land use
• Soil conservation
• Soil carbon
• Water use
• Energy use
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Water Quality
• Biodiversity in development
– Against:
• Their own fields
• Their own performance over 
time
• County, state and national 
averages
Fieldprint Calculator Summary Page
105
Sample Results:
Resources per bushel, Soybeans
106
A Closer Look
Soybean Results: Soil Erosion
107
• Total soil erosion decreased over most of the study period, but has
increased more recently (similar for corn)
• Per acre soil erosion decreased during first half of study period,
then leveled off (similar for corn, cotton, and wheat)
TOTAL PER ACRE PER BUSHEL
Top
Down
Bottom Up
Supply Chain Alignment
Supply chain
engagements,
growing region/
watershed scale
Field scale
metrics,
tools & pilots
4R
© Scott Warren
Questions?

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