On 21 February 2012 CCAFS live streamed the science seminar "How good are current climate models for predicting agricultural impacts in Africa and South Asia?" Featuring Professor Richard Washington and Professor Mark New at Oxford University. See the seminar: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/videostream
From the live streamed science seminar held on 21 February 2012. Professors Richard Washington (Oxford University) and Mark New (University of Cape Town) discussed recent trends, current projections, crop-climate suitability, and prospects for improved climate model information over the next 10 years, and answered questions from viewers.<a>Learn more about the seminar on our web site and download the Working Paper</a>
Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions while climate describes average weather patterns over longer periods of time. Various instruments are used to measure and monitor weather elements like temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, and precipitation. Climate is influenced by factors such as latitude, distance from bodies of water, prevailing winds, ocean currents, altitude, and cloud cover. Tropical rainforests and deserts have unique climates that shape distinctive plant and animal adaptations for survival. Deforestation threatens rainforests and contributes to desertification.
The document discusses turfgrass adaptation and ecology, focusing on three regions in the western United States: the Pacific Coastal region, Cool Humid region, and Cool Arid region. It summarizes the key differences between these regions in terms of precipitation patterns, average temperatures, and which grass species thrive best in each climate zone. The Pacific Coastal region, which experiences dry summers and wet winters, is highlighted as distinct from the other two regions that receive more consistent rainfall throughout the year.
Methodological Tools to Address Mitigation Issues
Presented by Alex de Pinto at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis, June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information about the AGRODEP workshop visit: www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
Presentation by Mr. Eric Yao, co-ordinator of The Africa Centre, Dublin, and a farmer in Ghana, on the effects that a changing climate has had on his business.
The document analyzes the potential impacts of climate change on banana production in subtropical regions. It describes a five-stage analysis conducted to estimate the effects of projected climate changes on banana suitability and productivity. Current banana growing areas were identified and a crop suitability model was calibrated and used to model suitability under future climate scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s. The results indicate temperatures will increase in subtropical areas, while rainfall patterns vary. Adaptation strategies will need to focus on drought tolerance and maintaining sub-optimal temperatures. These may include improved irrigation, targeted planting, cultivar substitution, and genetic improvement.
Climate Change is the most sought after a topic discussed very prominently in the media during this millennium as the Earth and the Environment is the worst affected due to it. Factors like global warming is leading to rise in Global Temperature, resulting melting polar ice, rising sea levels, high level of air pollution are affecting the quality of living for both men and animals.
The Journal of The Earth Science and Climate Change is peer reviewed academic journal that cater to the needs of Earth Scientists, farmers, extensive agents, researchers and students. This Open access journal publishes high quality articles following rigorous and standard review procedure.
From the live streamed science seminar held on 21 February 2012. Professors Richard Washington (Oxford University) and Mark New (University of Cape Town) discussed recent trends, current projections, crop-climate suitability, and prospects for improved climate model information over the next 10 years, and answered questions from viewers.<a>Learn more about the seminar on our web site and download the Working Paper</a>
Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions while climate describes average weather patterns over longer periods of time. Various instruments are used to measure and monitor weather elements like temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, and precipitation. Climate is influenced by factors such as latitude, distance from bodies of water, prevailing winds, ocean currents, altitude, and cloud cover. Tropical rainforests and deserts have unique climates that shape distinctive plant and animal adaptations for survival. Deforestation threatens rainforests and contributes to desertification.
The document discusses turfgrass adaptation and ecology, focusing on three regions in the western United States: the Pacific Coastal region, Cool Humid region, and Cool Arid region. It summarizes the key differences between these regions in terms of precipitation patterns, average temperatures, and which grass species thrive best in each climate zone. The Pacific Coastal region, which experiences dry summers and wet winters, is highlighted as distinct from the other two regions that receive more consistent rainfall throughout the year.
Methodological Tools to Address Mitigation Issues
Presented by Alex de Pinto at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis, June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information about the AGRODEP workshop visit: www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
Presentation by Mr. Eric Yao, co-ordinator of The Africa Centre, Dublin, and a farmer in Ghana, on the effects that a changing climate has had on his business.
The document analyzes the potential impacts of climate change on banana production in subtropical regions. It describes a five-stage analysis conducted to estimate the effects of projected climate changes on banana suitability and productivity. Current banana growing areas were identified and a crop suitability model was calibrated and used to model suitability under future climate scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s. The results indicate temperatures will increase in subtropical areas, while rainfall patterns vary. Adaptation strategies will need to focus on drought tolerance and maintaining sub-optimal temperatures. These may include improved irrigation, targeted planting, cultivar substitution, and genetic improvement.
Climate Change is the most sought after a topic discussed very prominently in the media during this millennium as the Earth and the Environment is the worst affected due to it. Factors like global warming is leading to rise in Global Temperature, resulting melting polar ice, rising sea levels, high level of air pollution are affecting the quality of living for both men and animals.
The Journal of The Earth Science and Climate Change is peer reviewed academic journal that cater to the needs of Earth Scientists, farmers, extensive agents, researchers and students. This Open access journal publishes high quality articles following rigorous and standard review procedure.
Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems
This presentation from the International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) about the Mekong ARCC project was given by ICEM's director Jeremy Carew-Reid at the World Bank-sponsored Second Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change, held in Hanoi, Vietnam from 3-7 September 2012.
The presentation focuses on the Mekong ARCC assessments and findings regarding climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods. It addresses the significant transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture in the region. Commercial cropping has doubled in the last 20 years, particularly with the growth in production of rubber and cassava. The presentation provides recommendations from the Mekong ARCC assessments focusing on food production, advocating that food production will need to grow by 25% in the next 15 years just to supply local populations. The presentation highlights 'hot spots' in terms of rainfall and temperature changes, and illustrates potential implications for the location of industrial and commercial crops. The presentation focuses on the Se San catchment area, and notes some key changes which have implications for rice cultivation in the context of more extreme flooding and sea level rise.
Climate change in Sudan and related tasks for the science, Extreme events and...ipcc-media
Climate change is affecting Sudan in several ways:
- Temperatures are increasing in most parts of the country based on temperature anomaly data from several cities between 1980-2016.
- Rainfall patterns are also changing, with some areas like Dongola receiving less rain and others like Elgadarif receiving more variable amounts.
- Sudan has experienced increased extreme weather events like droughts, floods from heavy rain and Nile River overflow in recent decades which have caused loss of life and property damage.
- More work is needed to improve climate modeling and better understand how to adapt to and manage the risks from a changing climate through approaches like sustainable farming and water management.
THEME – 5 Climate change, agro-biodiversity and food security in West AfricaICARDA
This document summarizes a presentation on climate change, agro-biodiversity, and food security in West Africa. It discusses the environmental challenges facing the region, including decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures from south to north. It outlines the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, such as species loss and reduced crop yields. Two climate change scenarios for 2050 are presented based on different climate models, both showing declining rainfall along coastal areas and potential yield increases or decreases depending on the crop and location. The presentation concludes with an overview of agricultural research in the region conducted by CORAF/WECARD to promote sub-regional cooperation and solve common agricultural problems through research programs focused on key sub-sectors and cross-cutting issues like
Climate change perspectives for the asean regionipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report regarding observed and projected climate changes for Southeast Asia. Observations show increasing temperatures, extreme heat, and heavy rainfall in the region. Models project further warming above 3°C by late this century under high emissions, along with more extreme precipitation. However, there is low confidence in projections of future rainfall trends. Several climate change impacts are identified for Southeast Asia, like more intense flooding and drought, but significant knowledge gaps remain due to the lack of detailed attribution and impact studies for the region.
Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika van die volgende paar dekades tot die vol...NelCoetzee
- The document discusses climate change projections for South Africa over the coming decades and century.
- Temperatures are projected to increase substantially, with increases of 4-7°C possible in interior regions by late century under high emissions scenarios. This would bring temperatures outside the range historically observed.
- Drier conditions are likely for much of southern Africa, while extreme rainfall events may increase in northeastern parts of the region. More frequent and severe droughts are also projected.
Climate Change in the NENA and its Implications on Agriculture and RangelandsICARDA
31 March - 4 April 2019. Cairo. Land and Water Days in the NENA Region 2019
1 April: Session: Monitoring and assessment of climate change in the NENA and understanding its impact on land and water resources, agriculture and ecosystems
Dr. Ajit Govind (see presentation) - ICARDA: Climate Change in the NENA and its implications on agriculture and rangelands.
Climate Action in the southwestern part of Bangladesh ppt- Akib Hossain Mehed...AkibMehedi
Bangladesh-a south Asian country is one of the most climate change vulnerable country in the world. Climate change, salinity and cyclone make the country's southwestern part more vulnerable. This ppt shows climate impacts, adaptive capacities and mitigation measures of coastal communities, to cope with impacts of climate change-induced salinity on their livelihoods and water security.
Impact of climate change on Moroccan agricultureICARDA
1) The document discusses climate change impacts on agriculture in Morocco. It notes that rainfall is becoming more variable and droughts are occurring more frequently, negatively impacting rainfed cereal production.
2) Farmers in the Benslimane province of Morocco are adapting to climate change by changing their sowing dates and crop rotations. Many are shifting to earlier sowing of wheat to avoid drought and pests.
3) Farmers are also increasing the use of new wheat varieties that have shorter growth cycles and are more resistant to drought and diseases. However, small farmers still struggle to adapt to the disruptions caused by climate change.
Climate Change Impacts and Household Vulnerability of Rainfed Farming Systems...ICRISAT
Rainfed agriculture plays an important role in the livelihoods of rural households in the Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT), which occupies about 55% (86 M ha) of net sown area and produces 40% of total foodgrain. Rainfed farming systems are highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change. There is a need to minimize this risk and uncertainty to sustainably increase food production. A systems approach with multidimensional assessments can best assess the impact of climate change on agriculture production systems, household level income and poverty.
This document provides information about weather, climate, and agriculture. It begins with definitions of weather and climate. It then discusses high and low pressure systems and how they relate to cloud formation, temperature, humidity, and different types of precipitation. Specific weather phenomena like thunderstorms and lightning are also explained. The document then covers climate change, including the greenhouse effect and factors contributing to rising global temperatures. It summarizes the findings of a student research project on climate changes in Bangalore, India. The summary concludes by discussing strategies to combat climate change and its potential negative effects.
Climate cahange and water management alexandriaAhmed Balah
The document summarizes climate change predictions for Alexandria, Egypt. It is predicted that temperatures will rise by 2.8°C by 2080-2099 with decreased precipitation of 6% and more dry seasons. Sea levels are projected to rise by 15-95cm by 2100, exacerbating flooding risks. Impacts on Alexandria's urban water system will include stresses on water supply from changes in Nile River flows and increased water demand. Sea level rise also threatens coastal infrastructure, fisheries, and 30% of the city could be lost to inundation without action.
The presentation was part of the Food Security in India: the Interactions of Climate Change, Economics, Politics and Trade workshop, organized by IFPRI-CUTS on March 11 in New Delhi, India. The project seeks to explore a model for analyzing food security in India through the interactions of climate change, economics, politics and trade.
Ijaar v8 no2-p64-74 | Impact of environmental conditions on the yield variabi...Innspub Net
Impact of environmental conditions on the yield variability of durum wheat (Triticum durum. Desf) and its associated characters at Algerian semi-arid areas
By: Megherbi-Benali A, Toumi-Benali F, Zouaoui S, Hamel L, Benyahia M.
Int. J. Agr. Agri. Res. 8(2), 64-74, February 2016.
Abstract
Environmental stresses are most common in Algeria. Drought, cold and hot weather are often present. These production constraints are abiotic, they are combined together more aggravating the loss in crop yields, especially durum. Indeed, a study was conducted under different agro-ecological conditions in the 2010/11 year. The approach adopted has been characterized by integration across experiment and pedoclimatic zoned. To do this, tests were conducted at the three zones and followed up from the installation of the plant to harvest. The observations concern the effects of environmental constraints on yield and traits associated; with measurements, it is focused on morpho-phenological characteristics of the vegetation, soil moisture, and physicochemical properties of the soil. A substantial variation in yield was observed between zones can be explained by the significance of soil tillage, crop rotation the characteristics of each zone. Results confirm particularly that correlations between yield and associated characters exist and that various genotypes respond differently with the environments. Improved genotypes and precocious ensure the best yield. The early stage of heading is a trait often sought in Mediterranean areas since it allows them to avoid the terminal water deficit or deficiency. The study confirmed the existence of significant correlations entered yield and it is components of and that genotypes responded differently depending on the environment to which they are subjected.
Presentation held by Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), at the learning event The Community Based Adaptation and Resilience in East and Southern Africa’s Drylands, held in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia by Care International Adaptation Learning Program for Africa (ALP), The CGIAR research program on Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and African Insect Science for Food and Health (ICIPE)
Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate ...World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
In the years to come climate change, coupled with population growth, energy and natural resource depletion, will increasingly challenge our continued ability to feed ourselves. As we move forward, persistent problems, past failures and new challenges within Extension change agents and advisory service (EAS) provisioning have the potential to converge in a perfect storm as the scramble to adapt to the new normal of life under climate change intensifies. This presentation outlines the nature of the challenges, identifies past and present points of successful EAS engagement and outlines necessary areas of preparation
Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate ...World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
This document summarizes the challenges facing agriculture under climate change and opportunities for agricultural extension services. It discusses trends showing rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather. This "new normal" will disrupt agriculture and require adaptations. Extension services need to help farmers mitigate emissions and adapt practices, focusing on building resilience. Prospects include collaborating with researchers, adopting multi-benefit practices, enhancing technology transfer, upgrading training, and balancing policies to support smallholders under climate change.
1. The document discusses seasonal climate forecasts and natural cycles of drought and how they relate to food security.
2. It provides examples of how El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns impact winter precipitation and rice yields in certain regions.
3. Global warming may further impact agriculture and climate through changing temperature and precipitation patterns globally in the coming decades and centuries according to climate models.
This document discusses tropical climates and environments. It defines the tropics as the region around the Earth's equator bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn. It describes the key characteristics of tropical climates, including high temperatures, rainfall patterns influenced by seasonal shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and distinct wet and dry seasons in some tropical climate types. The document also classifies and describes different tropical climate regions including rainforests, monsoons, and savannas, and discusses important climatic, environmental, geological, and biogeographical factors that influence tropical environments.
Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdrguest68caa19
This study examined the potential impacts of climate change on land use in Laos. It found that temperatures have significantly increased over the 20th century, especially in southern parts of the country, and are projected to continue rising substantially by 2020 and 2050 according to climate models. Rainfall trends are less clear but also appear to be changing. These climate shifts could impact suitable areas for crops like sugarcane and coffee. Analysis of satellite data from 2000 to 2009 detected changes in vegetation cover and land use across the country. The study recommends more integrated and resilient farming systems to better cope with current climate variability and future changes.
Climate change is unbalancing the hydrological cycle in Latin America, causing more extreme floods and droughts. This is shifting hydroelectric power capacity and changing river flows. The Earth Simulator model projects further intensification of rainfall and longer dry periods under climate change. This will compromise the ability of mountain basins to regulate water flows as glaciers recede and fires reduce vegetation. To adapt, impacts must be assessed at the basin level to strengthen systems' resiliency and minimize reliability impacts.
The Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project works to deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture.
AICCRA does this by enhancing access to climate information services and climate-smart agricultural technology to millions of smallholder farmers in Africa.
With better access to climate technology and advisory services—linked to information about effective response measures—farmers can better anticipate climate-related events and take preventative action that help communities better safeguard their livelihoods and the environment.
AICCRA is supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, which is used to enhance research and capacity-building activities by the CGIAR centers and initiatives as well as their partners in Africa.
About IDA: IDA helps the world’s poorest countries by providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programmes that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve poor people’s lives.
IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for the world’s 76 poorest countries, 39 of which are in Africa.
Annual IDA commitments have averaged about $21 billion over circa 2017-2020, with approximately 61 percent going to Africa.
This presentation was given on 27 October 2021 by Mengpin Ge, Global Climate Program Associate at WRI, during the webinar "Achieving NDC Ambition in Agriculture" organized by CCAFS, FAO and WRI.
Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
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Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems
This presentation from the International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) about the Mekong ARCC project was given by ICEM's director Jeremy Carew-Reid at the World Bank-sponsored Second Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change, held in Hanoi, Vietnam from 3-7 September 2012.
The presentation focuses on the Mekong ARCC assessments and findings regarding climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods. It addresses the significant transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture in the region. Commercial cropping has doubled in the last 20 years, particularly with the growth in production of rubber and cassava. The presentation provides recommendations from the Mekong ARCC assessments focusing on food production, advocating that food production will need to grow by 25% in the next 15 years just to supply local populations. The presentation highlights 'hot spots' in terms of rainfall and temperature changes, and illustrates potential implications for the location of industrial and commercial crops. The presentation focuses on the Se San catchment area, and notes some key changes which have implications for rice cultivation in the context of more extreme flooding and sea level rise.
Climate change in Sudan and related tasks for the science, Extreme events and...ipcc-media
Climate change is affecting Sudan in several ways:
- Temperatures are increasing in most parts of the country based on temperature anomaly data from several cities between 1980-2016.
- Rainfall patterns are also changing, with some areas like Dongola receiving less rain and others like Elgadarif receiving more variable amounts.
- Sudan has experienced increased extreme weather events like droughts, floods from heavy rain and Nile River overflow in recent decades which have caused loss of life and property damage.
- More work is needed to improve climate modeling and better understand how to adapt to and manage the risks from a changing climate through approaches like sustainable farming and water management.
THEME – 5 Climate change, agro-biodiversity and food security in West AfricaICARDA
This document summarizes a presentation on climate change, agro-biodiversity, and food security in West Africa. It discusses the environmental challenges facing the region, including decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures from south to north. It outlines the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, such as species loss and reduced crop yields. Two climate change scenarios for 2050 are presented based on different climate models, both showing declining rainfall along coastal areas and potential yield increases or decreases depending on the crop and location. The presentation concludes with an overview of agricultural research in the region conducted by CORAF/WECARD to promote sub-regional cooperation and solve common agricultural problems through research programs focused on key sub-sectors and cross-cutting issues like
Climate change perspectives for the asean regionipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report regarding observed and projected climate changes for Southeast Asia. Observations show increasing temperatures, extreme heat, and heavy rainfall in the region. Models project further warming above 3°C by late this century under high emissions, along with more extreme precipitation. However, there is low confidence in projections of future rainfall trends. Several climate change impacts are identified for Southeast Asia, like more intense flooding and drought, but significant knowledge gaps remain due to the lack of detailed attribution and impact studies for the region.
Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika van die volgende paar dekades tot die vol...NelCoetzee
- The document discusses climate change projections for South Africa over the coming decades and century.
- Temperatures are projected to increase substantially, with increases of 4-7°C possible in interior regions by late century under high emissions scenarios. This would bring temperatures outside the range historically observed.
- Drier conditions are likely for much of southern Africa, while extreme rainfall events may increase in northeastern parts of the region. More frequent and severe droughts are also projected.
Climate Change in the NENA and its Implications on Agriculture and RangelandsICARDA
31 March - 4 April 2019. Cairo. Land and Water Days in the NENA Region 2019
1 April: Session: Monitoring and assessment of climate change in the NENA and understanding its impact on land and water resources, agriculture and ecosystems
Dr. Ajit Govind (see presentation) - ICARDA: Climate Change in the NENA and its implications on agriculture and rangelands.
Climate Action in the southwestern part of Bangladesh ppt- Akib Hossain Mehed...AkibMehedi
Bangladesh-a south Asian country is one of the most climate change vulnerable country in the world. Climate change, salinity and cyclone make the country's southwestern part more vulnerable. This ppt shows climate impacts, adaptive capacities and mitigation measures of coastal communities, to cope with impacts of climate change-induced salinity on their livelihoods and water security.
Impact of climate change on Moroccan agricultureICARDA
1) The document discusses climate change impacts on agriculture in Morocco. It notes that rainfall is becoming more variable and droughts are occurring more frequently, negatively impacting rainfed cereal production.
2) Farmers in the Benslimane province of Morocco are adapting to climate change by changing their sowing dates and crop rotations. Many are shifting to earlier sowing of wheat to avoid drought and pests.
3) Farmers are also increasing the use of new wheat varieties that have shorter growth cycles and are more resistant to drought and diseases. However, small farmers still struggle to adapt to the disruptions caused by climate change.
Climate Change Impacts and Household Vulnerability of Rainfed Farming Systems...ICRISAT
Rainfed agriculture plays an important role in the livelihoods of rural households in the Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT), which occupies about 55% (86 M ha) of net sown area and produces 40% of total foodgrain. Rainfed farming systems are highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change. There is a need to minimize this risk and uncertainty to sustainably increase food production. A systems approach with multidimensional assessments can best assess the impact of climate change on agriculture production systems, household level income and poverty.
This document provides information about weather, climate, and agriculture. It begins with definitions of weather and climate. It then discusses high and low pressure systems and how they relate to cloud formation, temperature, humidity, and different types of precipitation. Specific weather phenomena like thunderstorms and lightning are also explained. The document then covers climate change, including the greenhouse effect and factors contributing to rising global temperatures. It summarizes the findings of a student research project on climate changes in Bangalore, India. The summary concludes by discussing strategies to combat climate change and its potential negative effects.
Climate cahange and water management alexandriaAhmed Balah
The document summarizes climate change predictions for Alexandria, Egypt. It is predicted that temperatures will rise by 2.8°C by 2080-2099 with decreased precipitation of 6% and more dry seasons. Sea levels are projected to rise by 15-95cm by 2100, exacerbating flooding risks. Impacts on Alexandria's urban water system will include stresses on water supply from changes in Nile River flows and increased water demand. Sea level rise also threatens coastal infrastructure, fisheries, and 30% of the city could be lost to inundation without action.
The presentation was part of the Food Security in India: the Interactions of Climate Change, Economics, Politics and Trade workshop, organized by IFPRI-CUTS on March 11 in New Delhi, India. The project seeks to explore a model for analyzing food security in India through the interactions of climate change, economics, politics and trade.
Ijaar v8 no2-p64-74 | Impact of environmental conditions on the yield variabi...Innspub Net
Impact of environmental conditions on the yield variability of durum wheat (Triticum durum. Desf) and its associated characters at Algerian semi-arid areas
By: Megherbi-Benali A, Toumi-Benali F, Zouaoui S, Hamel L, Benyahia M.
Int. J. Agr. Agri. Res. 8(2), 64-74, February 2016.
Abstract
Environmental stresses are most common in Algeria. Drought, cold and hot weather are often present. These production constraints are abiotic, they are combined together more aggravating the loss in crop yields, especially durum. Indeed, a study was conducted under different agro-ecological conditions in the 2010/11 year. The approach adopted has been characterized by integration across experiment and pedoclimatic zoned. To do this, tests were conducted at the three zones and followed up from the installation of the plant to harvest. The observations concern the effects of environmental constraints on yield and traits associated; with measurements, it is focused on morpho-phenological characteristics of the vegetation, soil moisture, and physicochemical properties of the soil. A substantial variation in yield was observed between zones can be explained by the significance of soil tillage, crop rotation the characteristics of each zone. Results confirm particularly that correlations between yield and associated characters exist and that various genotypes respond differently with the environments. Improved genotypes and precocious ensure the best yield. The early stage of heading is a trait often sought in Mediterranean areas since it allows them to avoid the terminal water deficit or deficiency. The study confirmed the existence of significant correlations entered yield and it is components of and that genotypes responded differently depending on the environment to which they are subjected.
Presentation held by Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), at the learning event The Community Based Adaptation and Resilience in East and Southern Africa’s Drylands, held in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia by Care International Adaptation Learning Program for Africa (ALP), The CGIAR research program on Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and African Insect Science for Food and Health (ICIPE)
Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate ...World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
In the years to come climate change, coupled with population growth, energy and natural resource depletion, will increasingly challenge our continued ability to feed ourselves. As we move forward, persistent problems, past failures and new challenges within Extension change agents and advisory service (EAS) provisioning have the potential to converge in a perfect storm as the scramble to adapt to the new normal of life under climate change intensifies. This presentation outlines the nature of the challenges, identifies past and present points of successful EAS engagement and outlines necessary areas of preparation
Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate ...World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
This document summarizes the challenges facing agriculture under climate change and opportunities for agricultural extension services. It discusses trends showing rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather. This "new normal" will disrupt agriculture and require adaptations. Extension services need to help farmers mitigate emissions and adapt practices, focusing on building resilience. Prospects include collaborating with researchers, adopting multi-benefit practices, enhancing technology transfer, upgrading training, and balancing policies to support smallholders under climate change.
1. The document discusses seasonal climate forecasts and natural cycles of drought and how they relate to food security.
2. It provides examples of how El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns impact winter precipitation and rice yields in certain regions.
3. Global warming may further impact agriculture and climate through changing temperature and precipitation patterns globally in the coming decades and centuries according to climate models.
This document discusses tropical climates and environments. It defines the tropics as the region around the Earth's equator bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn. It describes the key characteristics of tropical climates, including high temperatures, rainfall patterns influenced by seasonal shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and distinct wet and dry seasons in some tropical climate types. The document also classifies and describes different tropical climate regions including rainforests, monsoons, and savannas, and discusses important climatic, environmental, geological, and biogeographical factors that influence tropical environments.
Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdrguest68caa19
This study examined the potential impacts of climate change on land use in Laos. It found that temperatures have significantly increased over the 20th century, especially in southern parts of the country, and are projected to continue rising substantially by 2020 and 2050 according to climate models. Rainfall trends are less clear but also appear to be changing. These climate shifts could impact suitable areas for crops like sugarcane and coffee. Analysis of satellite data from 2000 to 2009 detected changes in vegetation cover and land use across the country. The study recommends more integrated and resilient farming systems to better cope with current climate variability and future changes.
Climate change is unbalancing the hydrological cycle in Latin America, causing more extreme floods and droughts. This is shifting hydroelectric power capacity and changing river flows. The Earth Simulator model projects further intensification of rainfall and longer dry periods under climate change. This will compromise the ability of mountain basins to regulate water flows as glaciers recede and fires reduce vegetation. To adapt, impacts must be assessed at the basin level to strengthen systems' resiliency and minimize reliability impacts.
Similar to Climate change and Agriculture in East Africa, West Africa and the Indo-Gangetic Plains (20)
The Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project works to deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture.
AICCRA does this by enhancing access to climate information services and climate-smart agricultural technology to millions of smallholder farmers in Africa.
With better access to climate technology and advisory services—linked to information about effective response measures—farmers can better anticipate climate-related events and take preventative action that help communities better safeguard their livelihoods and the environment.
AICCRA is supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, which is used to enhance research and capacity-building activities by the CGIAR centers and initiatives as well as their partners in Africa.
About IDA: IDA helps the world’s poorest countries by providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programmes that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve poor people’s lives.
IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for the world’s 76 poorest countries, 39 of which are in Africa.
Annual IDA commitments have averaged about $21 billion over circa 2017-2020, with approximately 61 percent going to Africa.
This presentation was given on 27 October 2021 by Mengpin Ge, Global Climate Program Associate at WRI, during the webinar "Achieving NDC Ambition in Agriculture" organized by CCAFS, FAO and WRI.
Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
This presentation was given on 27 October 2021 by Sabrina Rose, Policy Consultant at CCAFS, during the webinar "Achieving NDC Ambition in Agriculture" organized by CCAFS, FAO and WRI.
Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
This presentation was given on 27 October 2021 by Krystal Crumpler, Climate Change and Agricultural Specialist at FAO, during the webinar "Achieving NDC Ambition in Agriculture" organized by CCAFS, FAO and WRI.
Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
This presentation was meant to be included in the 2021 CLIFF-GRADS Welcome Webinar and presented by Ciniro Costa Jr. (CCAFS).
The webinar recording can be found here: https://youtu.be/UoX6aoC4fhQ
The multilevel CSA monitoring set of standard core uptake and outcome indicators + expanded indicators linked to a rapid and reliable ICT based data collection instrument to systematically
assess and monitor:
- CSA Adoption/ Access to CIS
- CSA effects on food security and livelihoods household level)
- CSA effects on farm performance
The document discusses plant-based proteins as a potential substitute for animal-based proteins. It notes that plant-based proteins are growing in popularity due to environmental and ethical concerns with animal agriculture. However, plant-based meats also present some health and nutritional challenges compared to animal proteins. The document analyzes opportunities and impacts related to plant-based proteins across Asia, including leveraging the region's soy and pea production and tailoring products to Asian diets and cultural preferences.
Presented by Ciniro Costa Jr., CCAFS, on 28 June 2021 at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Webinar on Sustainable Protein Case Study: Outputs and Synthesis of Results.
Presented by Marion de Vries, Wageningen Livestock Research at Wageningen University, on 28 June 2021 at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Webinar on Sustainable Protein Case Study: Outputs and Synthesis of Results.
This document assesses the environmental sustainability of plant-based meats and pork in China. It finds that doubling food production while reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 73% by 2050 will be a major challenge. It compares the life cycle impacts of plant-based meats made from soy, pea, and wheat proteins and oils, as well as pork and beef. The results show that the crop type and source country of the core protein ingredient drives the environmental performance of plant-based meats. The document provides sustainability guidelines for sourcing ingredients from regions with low deforestation risk and irrigation needs, using renewable energy in production, and avoiding coal power.
This document summarizes a case study on the dairy value chain in China. It finds that milk production and consumption have significantly increased in China from 1978 to 2018. Large-scale dairy farms now dominate production. The study evaluates greenhouse gas emissions from different stages and finds feed production is a major contributor. It models options to reduce the carbon footprint, finding improving feed practices and yield have high potential. Land use is also assessed, with soybean meal requiring significant land. Recommendations include changing feeds to lower land and carbon impacts.
This document summarizes information on the impacts of livestock production globally and in Asia. It finds that livestock occupies one third of global cropland and one quarter of ice-free land for pastures. Asia accounts for 32% of global enteric greenhouse gas emissions from livestock, with most emissions coming from India, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Rapid growth of livestock production in Asia is contributing to water and air pollution through nutrient runoff and emissions. The document discusses opportunities for public and private investment in more sustainable and climate-friendly livestock systems through technologies, monitoring, plant-based alternatives, and policies to guide intensification.
Presentation by Han Soethoudt, Jan Broeze, and Heike Axmann of Wageningen University & Resaearch (WUR).
WUR and Olam Rice Nigeria conducted a controlled experiment in Nigeria in which mechanized rice harvesting and threshing were introduced on smallholder farms. The result of the study shows that mechanization considerably reduces losses, has a positive impact on farmers’ income, and the climate.
Learn more: https://www.wur.nl/en/news-wur/show-day/Mechanization-helps-Nigerian-farms-reduce-food-loss-and-increase-income.htm
Presentation on the rapid evidence review findings and key take away messages.
Current evidence for biodiversity and agriculture to achieve and bridging gaps in research and investment to reach multiple global goals.
The document evaluates how climate services provided to farmers in Rwanda through programs like Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) and Radio Listeners’ Clubs (RLC) have impacted women and men differently, finding that the programs have increased women's climate knowledge and participation in agricultural decision making, leading to perceived benefits like higher incomes, food security, and ability to cope with climate risks for both women and men farmers.
This document provides an introduction to climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in Busia County, Kenya. It defines CSA and its three objectives of sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and income, adapting and building resilience to climate change, and reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions. It discusses CSA at the farm and landscape scales and provides examples of CSA practices and projects in Kenya. It also outlines Kenya's response to CSA through policies and programs. The document describes prioritizing CSA options through identifying the local context, available options, relevant outcomes, evaluating evidence on options' impacts, and choosing best-bet options based on the analysis.
1) The document outlines an action plan to scale research outputs from the EC LEDS project in Vietnam. It identifies key activities to update livestock feed databases and software, improve feeding management practices, develop policies around carbon tracking and subsidies, and raise awareness of stakeholders.
2) The plan's main goals are to strengthen national feed resources, update the PC Dairy software, build greenhouse gas inventory systems, and adopt standards to reduce emissions in agriculture and the livestock industry.
3) Key stakeholders involved in implementing the plan include the Department of Livestock Production, universities, and ministries focused on agriculture and the environment.
LAND USE LAND COVER AND NDVI OF MIRZAPUR DISTRICT, UPRAHUL
This Dissertation explores the particular circumstances of Mirzapur, a region located in the
core of India. Mirzapur, with its varied terrains and abundant biodiversity, offers an optimal
environment for investigating the changes in vegetation cover dynamics. Our study utilizes
advanced technologies such as GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and Remote sensing to
analyze the transformations that have taken place over the course of a decade.
The complex relationship between human activities and the environment has been the focus
of extensive research and worry. As the global community grapples with swift urbanization,
population expansion, and economic progress, the effects on natural ecosystems are becoming
more evident. A crucial element of this impact is the alteration of vegetation cover, which plays a
significant role in maintaining the ecological equilibrium of our planet.Land serves as the foundation for all human activities and provides the necessary materials for
these activities. As the most crucial natural resource, its utilization by humans results in different
'Land uses,' which are determined by both human activities and the physical characteristics of the
land.
The utilization of land is impacted by human needs and environmental factors. In countries
like India, rapid population growth and the emphasis on extensive resource exploitation can lead
to significant land degradation, adversely affecting the region's land cover.
Therefore, human intervention has significantly influenced land use patterns over many
centuries, evolving its structure over time and space. In the present era, these changes have
accelerated due to factors such as agriculture and urbanization. Information regarding land use and
cover is essential for various planning and management tasks related to the Earth's surface,
providing crucial environmental data for scientific, resource management, policy purposes, and
diverse human activities.
Accurate understanding of land use and cover is imperative for the development planning
of any area. Consequently, a wide range of professionals, including earth system scientists, land
and water managers, and urban planners, are interested in obtaining data on land use and cover
changes, conversion trends, and other related patterns. The spatial dimensions of land use and
cover support policymakers and scientists in making well-informed decisions, as alterations in
these patterns indicate shifts in economic and social conditions. Monitoring such changes with the
help of Advanced technologies like Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems is
crucial for coordinated efforts across different administrative levels. Advanced technologies like
Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems
9
Changes in vegetation cover refer to variations in the distribution, composition, and overall
structure of plant communities across different temporal and spatial scales. These changes can
occur natural.
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How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 InventoryCeline George
In this slide, we'll explore how to set up warehouses and locations in Odoo 17 Inventory. This will help us manage our stock effectively, track inventory levels, and streamline warehouse operations.
This presentation was provided by Racquel Jemison, Ph.D., Christina MacLaughlin, Ph.D., and Paulomi Majumder. Ph.D., all of the American Chemical Society, for the second session of NISO's 2024 Training Series "DEIA in the Scholarly Landscape." Session Two: 'Expanding Pathways to Publishing Careers,' was held June 13, 2024.
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) CurriculumMJDuyan
(𝐓𝐋𝐄 𝟏𝟎𝟎) (𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝟏)-𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐬
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐏𝐏 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐮𝐦 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬:
- Understand the goals and objectives of the Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) curriculum, recognizing its importance in fostering practical life skills and values among students. Students will also be able to identify the key components and subjects covered, such as agriculture, home economics, industrial arts, and information and communication technology.
𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐮𝐫:
-Define entrepreneurship, distinguishing it from general business activities by emphasizing its focus on innovation, risk-taking, and value creation. Students will describe the characteristics and traits of successful entrepreneurs, including their roles and responsibilities, and discuss the broader economic and social impacts of entrepreneurial activities on both local and global scales.
The chapter Lifelines of National Economy in Class 10 Geography focuses on the various modes of transportation and communication that play a vital role in the economic development of a country. These lifelines are crucial for the movement of goods, services, and people, thereby connecting different regions and promoting economic activities.
Climate change and Agriculture in East Africa, West Africa and the Indo-Gangetic Plains
1. Climate Change and Agriculture in
East Africa, West Africa and the
Indogangetic Plain
Richard Washington
University of Oxford
richard.washington@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Mark New
University of Cape Town
mark.new@acdi.uct.ac.za
2. Outline
• West Africa/Sahel • Background climate
• Projected Future Climates
• East Africa • Agriculture: What can we say
• IGP about changing extent of viable
cultivation?
• Comments on forthcoming Climate
Projections
3. Annual Cycle of Rainfall
Rain comes to Sahel in June to September
6. North-south winds: Atlantic/W.Sahel section: water is provided in a
very shallow flow of monsoon air near the surface
Positive = northerly, negative = southerly
7. West African rainfall and sea surface temperature patterns
Warmer tropical
Atlantic = drier
Sahel, wetter
Guinea coast
El Nino = drier
Sahel
Contrast in
hemispheric
sea temperatures
Driver of long-term
drought
Rodriguez-Fonseca et al 2011 ASL
10. How good are the
models?
Precipitation
climatology in
the current
generation of
climate models
1949 – 2000
JJAS
Kerry Cook
11. Climate Model annual precipitation cycle averaged zonally across the
West Africa domain for the 1970-99 period.
12. Dataset/Model Start End Length Trend 1970-1999 Standard
(days/year) Deviation (days)
NCEP 28th June 28th Oct 122 -0.59 18
JapRe 6th July 1st Sept 75 -0.32 17
CCCMA 20th May 3rd Nov 168 -0.44 23
CNRM 17th Jun 11th Nov 149 -0.32 26
CSIRO 19th Apr 17th Oct 180 -0.36 16
GFDL 2nd May 15th Oct 165 0.28 14
MIUB 18th Jun 20th Oct 134 -0.74 20
MPI 5th Jun 15th Oct 132 -0.21 22
MRI 11th Jul 10th Nov 121 -0.01 15
Model average 29th May 26th Oct 150 -0.26 19
Monsoon start and end dates, monsoon length, trends in the length of the
monsoon (for the 1970-99 period, figures in days/year) and the standard
deviation of the length of the monsoon. Figures are provided for the NCEP and
JapRe reanalyses for comparison, the 7 models and the average of the 7 models.
Significant at 90% is shown in red.
13. Model derived maximum temperature climatologies and trends during the
1970-1999 period. The NCEP output is shown for comparison. The trend
figures are °C/decade.
14. Figure
10
Trends in
intense rainfall
are of opposite
sign in two
data sets
Figure 2.9: Climatologies (top) and percentage trends (bottom) 1970-1999 period of 95%
daily precipitation events taken from NCEP (left) and JapRe (right). The trends are percent
per decade.
15. Crop Assessment Methodology
• Choose relevant crops
• Establish the climate related limits to crop
growth
• Establish how well these climatically
controlled limits are reproduced for climate
models
• Evaluate how the area under potential
cultivation could change in the future
16. Crop Total value ($1000s), including Total value ($1000s),
Nigeria excluding Nigeria
Cassava 3,071,029 591,445
Millet 2,085,272 926,554
Rice 1,659,813 1,007,268
Sorghum 1,435,564 514,911
Maize 957,857 422,720
Cowpea 309,181 309,181
Cassava primary limitation: absolute precipitation range which cassava is
capable of withstanding. Optimum growing conditions are found along the
Gulf of Guinea coast, with the higher average and lower minimum continental
temperatures limiting the range of optimum growth within the absolute
domain
Rice delineated by the decreasing northward precipitation gradient alone
Millet With a low minimum and maximum precipitation threshold the
variability in the two data sets used to delineate the crop is more pronounced
than for the other crops.
17. How well can climate models reproduce the climatically controlled extent of
viable cultivation?
Cassava model ensemble pattern follows the observed data well. But slightly
more northerly boundary of both the absolute and optimum growth thresholds
This is a function of the wet precipitation climatologies produced in the majority
of the models.
Millet The ensemble domain and those produced by many models are close
to the observed pattern. In a small number of models, excessive average
temperatures provide a secondary threshold, but the majority reproduce the
observed/reanalysis thresholds adequately.
Rice The ensemble domain correlates well with both observed/reanalysis
domains. The thresholds produced by all variables are similar to observed, with
the exception of minimum temperature where the model domain is too
extensive.
18. What happens to the extent of viable cultivation with projected climate change?
Cassava
•The absolute extent of the ensemble domains do not change significantly with
climate change. The ensemble, however, represents the average of a wide divergence
in precipitation projections across the CMIP3 dataset.
•Comparing the change in domain of two of the model outputs with strong wetting
(MIUB) and drying (GFDL), the projections vary over the Sahel, with a maximum
southward migration of around 2˚ in the driest scenario.
•No scenarios indicate a significant northward expansion of cultivatable land.
•The relatively high precipitation threshold for cassava explains the broad consensus
across the models, with greater variability in projections occurring in the driest areas.
•the outlook for growth of cassava in the region: uncertain change in the northern
limits of growth, + conditions within the currently cultivatable area will become more
challenging due to increased temperatures.
19. What happens to the extent of viable cultivation with projected climate change?
Millet
•The ensemble average future projections diverge relatively little from current, with
the primary changes resulting from areas which are too warm for optimum growth.
•The growth domains of the wettest and driest projections have very little overlap,
with the southern limit of growth by the end of the century around the same latitude
(10-12˚N) as the northerly limit in the driest scenario.
•The area of suitable conditions migrates northward and expands under the wettest
scenario, with the southern boundary moving around 1˚ and the northern boundary
up to 3˚ in the central Sahel.
•The driest scenario contracts the domain at both the northern and southern
boundaries, becoming centred on the southern Sahel.
•Optimum temperatures also cross the upper threshold of 28˚C across almost all of
the projected growth domains in all models and in all forcing scenarios.
•Optimum temperature thresholds are exceeded early in the century, so response
thereafter (though likely to be non-linear) is already above the thresholds analysed
here.
•The outlook for millet is highly uncertain, largely as a result of the comparatively
narrow precipitation thresholds which growth is constrained by.
20. What happens to the extent of viable cultivation with projected climate change?
Rice
•the higher minimum precipitation requirements of rice leads the limit of cultivation
to lie further south than the other crops. As a result, the models show less divergence
in their projections for future growth domains.
•The ensemble absolute growth domain changes very little, with an expansion of
optimal conditions driven by the increase in average temperatures passing the 25˚C
threshold in the few areas within the existing growth domain where it is not already
satisfied. The greatest inter-model divergence is of 2-3˚ (including uncertainty derived
from the reanalysis discrepancies) in the projections for the northern limit of
cultivation by the 2090s under an sresa2 scenario.
•The outlook for rice appears better constrained than cowpea or cassava, with the
higher precipitation thresholds more consistently produced across the models. The
primary uncertainty is the northern boundary of cultivation with a projected change
of less than 2˚ either north or south under the most extreme forcing scenario. Where
changes in precipitation do not adversely impact on growth, increasing temperatures
should improve growth conditions.
21. A Drier Sahel in the C21st?
• Cook and Vizy, 2006 selected 3 GCMs (based on the quality of their C20th
simulations) for C21st simulations with various GHG emissions scenarios.
• Models;
– GFDL_0
• Severe drying in later part of C21st, with complete shutdown of WAM system
• BUT significant inaccuracy in simulation of present-day regional climate so
predictions may be implausible
– MIROC
• Quite wet conditions in C21st, with strong warming in the Gulf of Guinea reversing
monsoonal flow and greatly reducing precipitation for Guinea coast countries.
• Increased westerly inflow near 15degN leads to increased precipitation in the
Sahara
• BUT changes are very strong and very sudden in response to a 2K SST anomaly in
the Gulf of Guinea- may be more representative of C22nd.
22. A Drier Sahel in the C21st
– MRI
• Warming in the Gulf of Guinea leads to more modest drying in the Sahel due to a
doubling of the number of anomalously dry years by the end of the century.
• Long-term trend in warming over many years.
• Analysis suggests MRI provides the most reasonable projection of C21st
climate.
• By end C21st, with increased GHG according to IPCC SRES A2, the number
of dry years in the Sahel will approximately double.
• This will lead to a decrease of ~10% in the summer precipitation
climatology over the Sahel, and a similar decrease over the Guinean Coast.
23. A Wetter Sahel in the C21st
• Hoerling et al. (2006) analysed results from a whole suite of
AGCM ensembles, focusing on the Sahel.
• Averaging all models produces a wet future Sahel
24. Model resolution and Model improvements in rainfall bias
Average (1990-2006) June-August precipitation biases (mm/day) for
model at 50km grid-spacing. Left: GA2.0 model version (assessed
last year); right latest (GA3.0) version.
Met Office CSRP
25. Evolution of the WAM as observed by TRMM
measurements, 1998-2010 (left) and in the
GA3.0-based GloSea4 seasonal hindcast
climatology.
Met Office CSRP
26.
27. Outline
• West Africa/Sahel • Background climate
• Projected Future Climates
• East Africa • Agriculture: What can we say
• IGP about changing extent of viable
cultivation?
• Comments on forthcoming Climate
Projections
28. Crop Assessment Methodology
• Choose relevant crops
• Establish the climate related limits to crop
growth
• Establish how well these climatically
controlled limits are reproduced for climate
models
• Evaluate how the area under potential
cultivation could change in the future
29. Crop Total value ($1000s) No. countries grown in
Maize 1277201 8
Cassava 1142874 6
Bananas 980947 7
Sorghum 938746 7
Rice 896989 5
Sweet Potatoes 728192 8
Wheat 447076 6
Potatoes 413219 7
Millet 247345 3
Pigeon Pea 99863 4
Table 3.1 Crops selected for East African study, their
value across the East African region
and number of the study countries they are grown in.
Figures from UN FAO.
30. Maize limited areas of optimal growth in the East African domain,
restricted to the Indian Ocean coastline of Kenya and Tanzania and much
of southern Sudan under both reanalysis precipitation datasets.
Cassava most of the East African domain, with the exception of northern
Kenya and eastern Ethiopia.
Banana primary limiting factor on growth is precipitation; however it
would be possible to grow bananas outside of the indicated climatological
area through irrigation. Optimum growing conditions (with NCEP
reanalysis precipitation) are found in the west of the domain, from
northern Tanzania up through Burundi and Rwanda and into western
Ethiopia. The JapRe precipitation dataset indicates optimum growing
conditions are similarly co-located but over a smaller region.
31. Thresholds of production across the region, as
realised from mean climatic conditions, for
cassava. Maps are provided using both the (a)
NCEP (top) and (b) (right) JapRe precipitation
reanalyses, both use the CRU temperature
dataset.
32. Thresholds of production across the
region, as realised from mean
climatic conditions for maize. Maps
are provided using both the (a)
NCEP and (b) JapRe precipitation
reanalyses, both use the CRU
temperature dataset.
33. The annual precipitation cycle averaged zonally across the
domain for the 1970-99 period for ‘observed’ (top left) and
climate models.
34. How well can climate models reproduce the climatically controlled extent of
viable cultivation?
Banana The ensemble output follows the climatological growth region
well, although the optimum area in the ensemble is slightly smaller and does
not extend into Uganda. The southern border of growth is further south in the
ensemble due to the precipitation distribution biases in the models.
Cassava Cassava is a crop that can be widely grown over East Africa and the
model ensemble domain reflects this. One key difference is that the
precipitation distribution in the models suggests that cassava can be grown
over northern Kenya and eastern Ethiopia when observed precipitation makes
these regions inappropriate for cassava cultivation.
Maize The key optimal region of maize growth over central-southern
Sudan is well replicated by the model ensemble as are other areas of varying
suitability. As with cassava, the weakest element of the model simulation of
the crop cultivation region is in eastern Ethiopia and northern Kenya where
the models overestimate precipitation. However, half of the individual models
robustly capture the precipitation limitations on maize growth in this region.
35. Model derived crop domains for cassava created using climatology data for
the 1970-99 period. The NCEP and JapRe domains are included for
comparison.
36. Change in precip against change in SAT relative to 1961-90 climatology for 2020s (pale
blue), 2050s (mid blue) and 2080s (dark blue)
Precip anomaly
(mm/day) SAT anomaly (°C)
37. Change in precip against change in SAT relative to 1961-90 climatology for 2020s (pale
blue), 2050s (mid blue) and 2080s (dark blue)
Precip anomaly
(mm/day) SAT anomaly (°C)
38. Precipitation anomalies (in mm/day) from the model ensemble for the 2030s,
2050s and 2090s under sresb1, sresa1b and sresa2 scenarios relative to a 1970-
99 climatology.
39. What happens to the extent of viable cultivation with projected climate change?
Banana
•The absolute extent of the crop growth domain does not change significantly in the
ensemble output through the twenty-first century.
•The plots based on the NCEP climatology show a significantly larger area suitable
for cultivation and this remains the case through the three periods of analysis.
•There may be opportunities for growth in Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and the
westernmost fringes of Tanzania and Kenya.
Maize
Under current climatic conditions maize experiences optimal growth conditions in
very few regions in East Africa.
This scenario is not projected to change significantly over the twenty first century;
Small region of southern Sudan where conditions were optimal contracts using both
base datasets and under all scenarios by the 2090s
Cassava
Climate chnages introduces few adverse impacts on the climatic suitability of
current optimal cassava growing regions
Contraction occurs at the northern boundary of cultivation in southern Sudan and
measures up to about 5º under the A2 scenario in the 2090s
40. Model ensemble derived crop domains for cassava for the three
periods and three forcing scenarios
41. Outline
• West Africa/Sahel • Background climate
• Projected Future Climates
• East Africa • Agriculture: What can we say
• IGP about changing extent of viable
cultivation?
• Comments on forthcoming Climate
Projections
42. IGP Basic Climate
• Dominated by Indian Monsoon
– Local rainfall (~70%)
– Himalayan sources for Indus and Ganges
• Winter snowfall also important
– Mid-latitude westerly disturbances
43. Monsoon Variability: Key Drivers
• ENSO
• Indian Ocean
• Eurasian Snow Cover
• North Atlantic
• Asian Brown Cloud Aerosols
44. Model Evaluation
• Most models get the general atmospheric
flows of the monsoon correct
• All models fail to capture spatio-temporal
patterns of precipitation
• Most models fail to capture ENSO and/or IO
teleconnections
53. Outline
• West Africa/Sahel • Background climate
• Projected Future Climates
• East Africa • Agriculture: What can we say
• IGP about changing extent of viable
cultivation?
• Comments on forthcoming Climate
Projections
55. Models used in seasonal
prediction are useful for
tracing errors in climate
models because the
models can be evaluated
against real, historical
events.
Figure above shows error in Coupled model systematic error in equatorial SST
model precip which is simulation – note systematic error in east-west
Figure above showsin thevalues for observed (black)
gradient SST tropical Atlantic
associated with an SST
and several coupled models across the equatorial oceans.
error Goddard & Mason ,
In the Atlantic, all models have an SST gradient from east
Climate Dynamics, 2002
to west (warm to cooler). The observed is opposite.
too warm in the tropics =
The SST error can be traced to stratus clouds
too wet in the tropics
in the subtropics – see next slide
and too dry in the Sahel
56.
57. Top: Average (1990-2006) June-August precipitation biases (mm/day) from GPCP for
regional model simulations at 135km, 50km, and 25km horizontal resolutions. Bottom:
differences between precipitation obtained with 50km and 25km resolution with those
obtained at 135km resolution and (right) observational uncertainties approximated by the
differences in the CRU and GPCP datasets.
58. CORDEX Phase I experiment design
Model Evaluation Climate Projection
Framework Framework
Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa)
50 km grid spacing
ERA-Interim BC RCP4.5, RCP8.5
1989-2007
Multiple AOGCMs
Regional Analysis 1951-2100
Regional Databanks
1981-2010, 2041-2070, 2011-2040
60. Forecast probabilities issued in August 2011 for early (left) and late (middle) onset of
the East Africa October to December rain.
A three category definition of early/average/late onset is used such that the a priori
probability of each is 33%. Thus yellow-red colours indicate a predicted enhanced
probability (>40%) of the category and blue colours indicate a diminished probability
(<20%). Observed onset date in days difference from the climate average. Blue shading
= early onset, red shading = late onset.
Observations are from the CPC FEWS-NET daily precipitation estimates dataset
(climatology = 1995-2010).
Met Office Experimental Onset Forecasts
Courtesy Michael Vellinga
61. Evolution of the WAM as observed by TRMM
measurements, 1998-2010 (left) and in the
GA3.0-based GloSea4 seasonal hindcast
climatology.
Met Office Experimental Onset Forecasts
Courtesy Michael Vellinga
62. Forecast probabilities issued in June 2011 for
early (top) and late (middle) onset of the West
Africa season (July-September).
A three category definition of
early/average/late onset is used such that the
a priori probability of each is 33%. Thus
yellow-red colours indicate a predicted
enhanced probability (>40%) of the category
and blue colours indicate a diminished
probability (<20%). Bottom: observed onset
date in days difference from the climate
average. Blue shading = early onset, red
shading = late onset.
Observations are from the CPC FEWS-NET
daily precipitation estimates dataset
(climatology = 1995-2010).
Met Office Experimental Onset Forecasts
Courtesy Michael Vellinga
63. Facing up to the demands of resolution, complexity
and uncertainty in Earth System Modelling:
Is there a choice?
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