Rainfed agriculture plays an important role in the livelihoods of rural households in the Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT), which occupies about 55% (86 M ha) of net sown area and produces 40% of total foodgrain. Rainfed farming systems are highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change. There is a need to minimize this risk and uncertainty to sustainably increase food production. A systems approach with multidimensional assessments can best assess the impact of climate change on agriculture production systems, household level income and poverty.

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Mar 2019
Climate Change Impacts and Household Vulnerability
of Rainfed Farming Systems in Southern India
Introduction
Rainfed agriculture plays an important role in the livelihoods of rural households in
the Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT), which occupies about 55% (86 M ha) of net sown area
and produces 40% of total foodgrain. Rainfed farming systems are highly vulnerable
to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change. There is a need to minimize
this risk and uncertainty to sustainably increase food production. A systems approach
with multidimensional assessments can best assess the impact of climate change on
agriculture production systems, household level income and poverty.
Objectives
▪▪ To assess the sensitivity of rainfed crop and livestock production systems to climate
change in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh.
▪▪ To assess household vulnerability, change in farm household net returns, per capita
income and poverty rate across different climate change scenarios.
Study area – Kurnool district, Andhra Pradesh
S Nedumaran1
, K Dakshina Murthy1
, MK Gumma1
, R Valdivia2
, S McDermid3
, S Srinivas Reddy1
, P Jyosthnaa1
and A Whitbread1
1
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru 502324, India
2
Oregon State University, USA
3
New York University, USA
Characteristics of farming systems
Changes in temperature and rainfall under RCP 8.5 over
Nandyal.
Category GCMs
Temperature
(˚C)
Rainfall
(% change)
Cool/wet MRI-CGCM3 0.46 37.8
Cool/dry MIROC5 1.40 15.2
Middle BNU-ESM 2.57 12.6
Hot/wet CMCC-CMS 2.04 33.3
Hot/dry CanESM2 3.00 6.4
Climate in the 2050s
Temperature increase
0.5 to 3°C
Rainfall change
6.4% to 37.8%
Hot/dry scenario:
- Yields are projected to
decrease due to heat
and water stresses.
Cool/wet & cool/dry
scenario: - Positive
impact on chickpea
yields.
Simulated average relative chickpea yields.
Climate
scenario
Low rainfall
Medium and high
rainfall
Mean CV (%) Mean CV (%)
Cool/wet 1.33 22.45 1.12 11.02
Cool/dry 1.05 9.92 0.92 8.51
Middle 0.83 6.49 0.69 6.66
Hot/wet 0.95 9.27 0.76 6.12
Hot/dry 0.88 8.25 0.74 6.86
GCM Strata
Vulnerability
(%)
Net
economic
impact (%)
Change in current system with
climate change (%)
Net farm
returns
Per capita
income
Poverty
rate
Hot/dry Low rainfall 68.2 -15.1 -20.5 -13.5 19.3
High and medium
rainfall
67.6 -19.0 -25.0 -20.9 08.5
Aggregate farms 67.8 -18.1 -24.0 -18.2 14.7
Cool/wet Low rainfall 34.5 13.8 18.8 12.4 -15.9
High and medium
rainfall
47.2 02.8 03.9 03.2 -04.0
Aggregate farms 42.4 05.4 07.3 06.6 -10.9
Climate Impacts
▪▪ Climate models predict a future with
higher (warmer) temperature.
▪▪ By the 2050s, the temperature could
increase by 0.5-3°C.
▪▪ Future rainfall could increase by 6- 38%.
▪▪ Cool/wet and cool/dry climate have a
positive impact on chickpea.
▪▪ Hot/dry and hot/wet climate have a
negative impact.
▪▪ 62% of farms could be vulnerable
▪▪ Poverty will increase by 15%.
Spatial distribution of land use/land cover
(LULC) in Andhra Pradesh and (inset) major
chickpea growing areas.
Location of sample households in chickpea
growing areas of Kurnool district.
Note: RCP= Representative Concentration Pathway; SSP=Shared Socio-Economic Pathway;
RAP=Representative Agricultural Pathway; and TOA-MD= Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-
Dimensional Impact Assessment.
Regional Integrated Assessment Framework
Region: Kurnool district, Andhra Pradesh,
India
Farming system: Rainfed crop-livestock
▪▪ 80% cropped area is rainfed
▪▪ Low rainfall zone (average rainfall of
760 mm)
▪▪ Black cotton soil (vertisols)
Cropping pattern: Fallow – chickpea.
Major crops: Chickpea, rice, sorghum
and groundnut.
Sensitivity of current production systems to climate change
Farm household vulnerability and poverty
Key messages