Wagner Klaus

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The document discusses challenges in changing natural hazard risk prevention strategies in Germany. It outlines steps needed for innovation, including rethinking strategies from scientific and hazard communities, political programs from parliaments, implementation by agencies, and local actions. Case studies on flood zones in Bavaria show conflicts between designating zones and local stakeholders' interests. Laws have amended over time, but major disasters were needed to spur further changes. Big time gaps exist between political programs and their local implementation, requiring disasters to motivate progress. Local conflicts also emerge from property rights versus welfare debates in applying new hazard management strategies.

Technology

Problems for changing the risk
prevention strategy
Persistent attitudes of different
stakeholders

Dr. Klaus Wagner
Chair of für Forstpolitik und Forstgeschichte
Lehrstuhl Forest Policy and Forest History

Steps for the Innovation within a
Risk Prevention Strategy
scientific community;
natural hazard community

rethinking the strategy,
development of innovations

parliaments, politicians

formulation of a political
program

agencies

implementation of the strategy
(secure funding resources)

local stakeholders

local actions according to the
new strategy

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Tendencies in Natural Hazard
Management
• increasing responsibility of the state (since 19th
century)
– large course corrections
– founding of national agencies
– national laws

• increasing environmental concerns (since 1970s)
• increasing role of precautionary measures in
relation to technical protection (since 1980s)
• from a security to a risk approach (present time)
Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Case Study: Flood Zones in
Bavaria
scientific community;
natural hazard community

inhibit increase of damage
potential

parliaments, politicians

laws and administrative
regulations

agencies

Bavarian strategy for flood zone
mapping

local stakeholders

conflicts while designating flood
zones at the river Tiroler Achen

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Amendments of Laws
German Federal
Water Act (WHG)

Bavarian Water Act administrative
(BayWG)
regulations

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Amendments of Laws
German Federal
Water Act (WHG)

Bavarian Water Act administrative
(BayWG)
regulations

1957: area for
water run off during
floods
1996: area for
water retention

floods on the Rhine
1993 and 1995

2005: inhibit
increase of damage
potential

Elbe flood 2002

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Amendments of Laws
German Federal
Water Act (WHG)

Bavarian Water Act administrative
(BayWG)
regulations

1957: area for
1907: new buildings
water run off during are forbidden
floods
1998: new buildings
1996: area for
and plantations are
water retention
forbidden
2005: inhibit
increase of damage
potential
Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conclusion I
• disasters are necessary for amendments
• amendments are highly controversial
• in Bavaria: increasing uncertainty

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Implementation in Bavaria
• declaration of flood zones only at 30% of
the length of the bigger rivers until 1997
• since 1997 program for flood zone
mapping with a standardized hydrological
modelling procedure

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conclusion II
• big time gap between formulation of the
political program and the implementation
of the program
• disasters help to implement the program

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conflicts on the Local Level
• 100-year flood zone is very large
– broader than 4 km

• major conflict issue: What is a
plantation?
• Solution:
Ordinary
agriculture is
permitted within
the flood zone
Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Root Causes for the Conflict
• value conflict
– property rights – common welfare
– short term – long term

• No acceptance of the new hazard
management strategy

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conclusion III
disaster

scientific community;
natural hazard community

rethinking the strategy,
development of innovations
disaster

parliaments, politicians

formulation of a political
program
disaster

agencies

disaster

disaster

implementation of the strategy
(secure funding resources)
disaster

local stakeholders

local actions according to the
new strategy

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

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