This document discusses factors that influence voter turnout and voting decisions. It notes that older, wealthier, more educated, and female individuals are more likely to vote. Younger, poorer, less educated individuals and some racial/ethnic groups have lower turnout. Voting decisions are influenced by political socialization growing up, party identification, attitudes on issues, and candidates' past and future performance. Economic models consider the costs and benefits of voting, including the probability one's vote will impact the outcome and the costs of voting versus civic duty benefits. Pocketbook voting looks at personal finances while sociotropic voting considers national indicators. Party identification, interpersonal networks, media, and perceptions of candidates also shape voting decisions. Legal

1. POL 140
Fall 2014

3. Who votes –and who doesn’t?
What makes people vote the way they do?
Why don’t people vote?

5. Age Older > Younger
Gender Women > Men
Income Richer > Poorer
Education College Degree > HS Graduate
Race and Ethnicity Mixed Evidence

10. Panel Study: Use a sample of the population and ask them
throughout campaign if their views have changed over time.
Truman Dewey

11. • Our voting decision takes places in a social context.
• Inherit partisanship from family and peers
• Strong pull when similar socio-economic status (SES) and religion
• Impact of political homogeneity
• What about “Cross-Pressured” voters?

15. Political Socialization
Party ID
Political Attitudes
Voting Decision
How are attitudes formed?
 Feelings toward the
Democratic and
Republican candidates
 How well each party
manages government
 Group interests (“knows
people like me”)
 Domesticpolicy issues
 Foreign policy issues

16. Voting based on past performance
If you are the incumbent:
 Remember great things?
 “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
If you are the challenger:
 Remember problems?
 “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

17. Voting based off of future considerations
If you are the incumbent:
 Plans for a new term if re-elected
 What will future look like with challenger?
If you are the challenger:
 Reject incumbent’s policies
 Vote for change in years ahead

20. Economic theory is based on assigning costs and benefits to
voting—and then making a decision on whether to vote or not.
Isn’t it always logical to vote? Downs would say, “Maybe”
R= PxB – C + D
Probability of
Reward “Civic Duty”
from Voting
vote
“mattering”
Benefits of
Voting
Costs of
Voting

21. POCKETBOOK VOTING SOCIOTROPICVOTING
Deals with your
personal finances
Deals with national
indicators of financial
health (e.g. deficit)

23. Citizens’ political
knowledge hasn’t increased
in the last few decades.

24. Party ID
 Is candidate a Republican or a Democrat?
Interpersonal Communications
 Friends and Family; “Opinion Leaders”
The Media
 Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing
Idea of “Representativeness”
 People compare actual candidate to “ideal” version

26. Legal Obstacles
Attitude Changes
Voter Mobilization
Decrease in Social Connectedness
Generational Changes
The “Rational Nonvoter”