Overview of the greenhouse effect and climate change.

1. Climate Change
Source “NASA Releases Detailed Global Climate Change Projections,” June 8, 2015, accessed September 7, 2016,
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-releases-detailed-global-climate-change-projections.

3. Unfortunately, it’s NOT a hoax
2016 is the hottest year so far – Scientific American , May 2016
While an exceptionally strong El Niño has provided a boost to
temperatures in recent months, the primary driver has been the heat
that has built up from decades of unabated greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions.
Two key climate change indicators -- global surface temperatures
and Arctic sea ice extent -- have broken numerous records through
the first half of 2016, according to NASA analyses of ground-based
observations and satellite data.
The six-month period from January to June was also the planet's
warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3
degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late
nineteenth century.

4. American view of climate change
A 2016 poll, conducted by the Energy Police Institute at the
University of Chicago and the Associated Press-NORC Center for
Public Affairs Research found:
• 77 percent of Americans said climate change was happening;
• 13 percent were unsure if climate change was happening; and
• 10 percent denied its existence.

5. Jim Kim – President at the World
Bank
On 9/23/16, Kim said, “August was the 16th consecutive
month of record-breaking heat.
It would take more than $1 trillion a year over the next 15
years for countries to get their climate agenda on track.
I don’t see this as insurmountable. In fact, I see it as a
trillion-dollar opportunity for the private sector to help
cut greenhouse gas emissions and create climate-smart
investments on the ground.
This could be an opportunity to take a potential disaster
and turn it into one of the greatest win-win situations:
Investments in clean energy driving economic growth.”

6. Overview
• Gases in Earth’s atmosphere keep the planet warmer than it would
otherwise be without the atmosphere.
• This natural condition is analogous to how a greenhouse maintains a
warmer temperature than its surrounding environment.
• There is a natural balance to the biogeochemical cycle of elements like
carbon.
• The human population is disrupting this natural balance in the
carbon cycle by extracting and burning fossil fuels, causing carbon to
accumulate in the atmosphere at a higher rate than it would under
natural conditions.
• Warming average, global temperatures disrupt climatic/weather
patterns causing droughts in some locations and flooding in others.

7. Overview
• Rising temperatures change the natural distribution of species, which
disrupts ecosystems and contributes to the loss of biodiversity.
• Climate change is a cumulative problem and threatens global stability
of ecosystems, societies, and economies.
• Substantial efforts are needed to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions.
• We must mitigate, adapt, and plan, but we have passed the point of
avoiding impacts caused by climate change.
• Delay will magnify the challenges of GHG emission reduction and
the impacts to the planet, to people, and to profits.

8. Weather and Climate
The Earth’s atmosphere has physical features that change day to day as
well as patterns that are consistent over a space of many years.
The daily properties such as wind speed and direction, temperature,
amount of sunlight, pressure, and humidity are referred to as weather.
The patterns that are constant over many years (30 years or more) are
referred to as climate.
The two most important factors in describing climate are
1) average temperature and
2) average precipitation amounts.

9. What is the “Greenhouse Effect”?
2. Some solar energy
penetrates the
atmosphere.
1. Some solar energy is
reflected back into space.
3. Earth’s surface is
heated by the sun and
radiates the heat.
4. GHG in the
atmosphere trap some of
the heat.

12. Al Gore did not invent the Internet.(2000 Presidential Campaign)
He did not discover the greenhouse effect and he did not invent
climate change.
Don’t worry … understanding climate change science does not
make you a left-wing liberal.

13. Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier
Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1768 to 1830) was a French
mathematician and physicist.
In 1801, Fourier returned from Egypt on the Napoleon expedition
with many artifacts including an ink pressed copy of the Rosetta
Stone.
However, he is most famous for his heat transfer studies, based
on Newton’s equations, and he is credited with the discovery of
the greenhouse effect.

14. It’s just physics and chemistry.
Beginning with work by Fourier in the 1820s, scientists
understood that gases in the atmosphere might trap the heat
received from the Sun.
As Fourier put it, energy in the form of visible light from the Sun
easily penetrates the atmosphere to reach the surface and heat it
up, but heat cannot so easily escape back into space. For the air
absorbs invisible heat rays (“infrared radiation”) rising from the
surface.
The warmed air radiates some of the energy back down to the
surface, helping it stay warm.

15. The Goldilocks Principle
The equations and data available to 19th-century scientists were far
too poor to allow an accurate calculation.
Yet the physics was straightforward enough to show that a bare,
airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder
than the Earth actually is.
Absolute Zero = 0 degrees Kelvin
The temperature of space is 2.7 degrees Kelvin.
Venus has more “greenhouse gases” than Earth.
The average global temperature of Venus is 900 degrees F.
Mars has less “greenhouse gases” than Earth.
The average global temperature of Mars is negative 200 degrees F.
Earth is just right … the natural balance of greenhouses gases is good.

16. http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/basics

17. Marine
photosynthesis
respiration

18. The Carbon Cycle
The relationship between photosynthesis and aerobic cellular
respiration should be kept in mind when discussing the carbon cycle.
The equation tells us that aerobic cellular respiration releases carbon
dioxide, which is needed for photosynthesis.
Photosynthesis releases oxygen, which is needed for aerobic cellular
respiration.
See how natural systems balance.

19. The Carbon Cycle
In addition to cycling through the atmosphere in an exchange
between plants and animals, dead organisms are also a source of
carbon. If decomposition is incomplete then carbonification occurs.
This is a process that transforms the remains into coal, oil, and
natural gas. We call these resources fossil fuels.
Most of the fossil fuel was formed during the Carboniferous period
(286 to 360 million years ago) when exceptionally large amounts of
organic matter were buried before decomposing. Humans are short
circuiting the biogeochemical carbon cycle by extracting and burning
fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are nonrenewable resources.

20. U.S. greenhouse gas pollution includes
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2), ~82% - Enters the atmosphere through
burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil), solid waste, trees and
wood products, and also as a result of certain chemical reactions
(e.g., manufacture of cement).
• Fluorinated gases, ~3%, - Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons,
and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases
that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes.
• Nitrous Oxide (N2O), ~6% - Emitted during agricultural and
industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and
solid waste.
• Methane (CH4), ~9% - Emitted during the production and transport
of coal, natural gas, and oil as well as from landfills.

21. What are the sources of GHG emissions?
Transportation = 28%
of U.S. GHG
37
28
18
17
Industrial
Transportation
Commercial
Residential

22. Source: EIA (2012)

23. Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2010 (EPA 2012)

24. Factory in Yutian in China's north-west Hebei province - 2007

25. Global Climate Change
The buildup of “greenhouse gases” will lead to global warming –
UN, NASA, NOAA, US EPA, DoD, DOE, Harvard University, etc.
The effects of global warming will be a rise in sea level and a
change in climate patterns, which will impact agriculture and
other aspects of civilization.
The daily temperature will not rise uniformly across the globe;
rather, the annual, average temperature will rise over time and
cause a shift in climate patterns.
Some areas will be wetter, so will be drier. Some will receive
more snowfall at times and some will receive less as a result of
shifts in the jet stream.

26. Climate Change – Pew Research
Many natural processes, from evolution to continental drift,
happen so slowly that it took humans millennia to realize they
were happening at all. By those standards, the global climate is
changing quite rapidly — the average global temperature has
risen about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880, according to
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. But people remain
more focused on short-term weather events, which affect their
lives immediately, than long-run climate trends.
NASA has loaded more than 6 decades of temperature data into
this short video, and the global warming is obvious. Reds and
yellows show temperatures warmer than the mid-20th century
baseline; light and dark blues indicate cooler than average
temperatures.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/01/31/chart-of-the-
week-a-half-century-of-global-climate-change/

27. Climate Change Model Validation
Natural processes such as changes in the sun's energy, shifts in
ocean currents, and others affect Earth's climate. However, they
do not explain the warming that we have observed over the last
half-century.
Models that account only for the
effects of natural processes are not
able to explain the warming over the
past century. Models that also
account for the greenhouse gases
emitted by humans are able to
explain this warming.
Source: USGRCP 2009

28. Average Global Temperature Trend
Source: NASA Earth Observatory Data

29. 350 ppm http://350.org/about/science/
According to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies - “If humanity
wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization
developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence
and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced
from [current levels] to at most 350 ppm.” Dr. James Hansen
Most scientists, climate experts, and national governments agree with
Dr. Hansen that 350 ppm is the “safe” level of carbon dioxide.

30. 400 ppm
Right now (9/5/16) we’re at 402.24 ppm, and we’re adding 2 ppm
of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year.
Unless we are able to rapidly turn that around and return to
below 350 ppm this century, we risk triggering tipping points and
irreversible impacts that could send climate change spinning truly
beyond our control.

31. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The IPCC has predicted that by 2100, assuming that current
trends in burning fossil fuels continue, the surface of the Earth
will warm on average by as much as 6 degrees Celsius (around 11
degrees Fahrenheit) or more.
It is not possible to predict how most species, including our own,
and how most ecosystems, will respond to such extreme
warming, but the effects are likely to be catastrophic.

32. To put an average surface warming of 6 degrees Celsius into
context, consider the following:
All the changes we have seen to date that have been ascribed to
global warming—the melting of glaciers, sea ice, and permafrost;
the bleaching and dying of coral reefs; extreme storms and flooding,
droughts, and heat waves; and major shifts in the ranges of
organisms and in the timing of their biological cycles--have
occurred with an average warming of approximately 1 degree since
the late 19th Century.
The average temperature of the Earth’s surface during the peak of
the last glacial period, 21,500 years ago, when large areas of North
America, northern Europe and northern Asia were under a sheet of
ice 2 miles and more thick, was only about 6 degrees Celsius cooler
than it is now.

33. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/05/the-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-melt-defending-the-drama.html
May 13, 2014 - A significant chunk of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
has begun to disintegrate and, owing to the ice sheet’s peculiar
topography (much of it lies below sea level), this process, having
begun, has now also become unstoppable.
According to Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion
Laboratory, “Today (May 13, 2014) we present observational
evidence that a large section of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has
gone into irreversible retreat.”

34. Ripped from the headlines – a terrifying conclusion
“It has passed the point of no return.” Rignot said that melting
in the section of West Antarctica that his team had studied could
cause global sea levels to rise by four feet over the course of a
couple of centuries.
Since the disappearance of some of its major glaciers could quite
possibly destabilize the entire ice sheet, the ultimate sea level
rise from West Antarctica, he said, could be triple that.
A 12 foot rise in ocean levels in coming years!

35. North America with a 12 foot rise in sea level

36. Latest Indicators of Climate Change
Negative impacts of climate change on crop and terrestrial food
production have been more common than positive impacts, which are
evident in some high-latitude regions (high confidence).
Flooding can have major economic costs, both in term of impacts (e.g.,
capital destruction, disruption) and adaptation (e.g., construction,
defensive investment) (robust evidence, high agreement). Since the
mid-20th century, socioeconomic losses from flooding have increased
mainly due to greater exposure and vulnerability (high confidence).
Nashville, TN – May 2010

37. Flood of 2010, West and Middle TN
http://www.state.tn.us/tsla/exhibits/disasters/floods2.htm
On May 1-2, 2010, the combined effects of a stalled frontal boundary
and warm, moist air rising from the Gulf of Mexico caused West and
Middle Tennessee to be inundated with record-breaking amounts of
rainfall.
According to the National Weather Service, in Nashville "a new two-
day rainfall record was established when 13.57 inches fell on May 1
and May 2, shattering the previous record of 6.68 inches set on
September 13 and 14, 1979."
Nashville’s previous record for rainfall during the month of May,
11.04 inches, was set in 1983. The 2010 storms broke that record in
just the first two days of the month.

38. 2010 Flood
The entire region experienced "1000-year floods" caused by the
fact that many locations received 10-20 inches of rain over a 48-
hour period. The Cumberland River flooded both Clarksville and
Nashville. On May 3 in Nashville the river, with a flood stage of
40 ft., crested at 51.86 ft., a level not seen since 1937. The next day
in Clarksville, where the flood stage is 46 ft., the Cumberland
crested at 62.58 ft. Other rivers flooded as well: the Duck River at
Centerville and Hurricane Mills, the Buffalo River at Lobelville,
the Harpeth River at Kingston Springs and Bellevue, and the Red
River at Port Royal.
Harpeth River, Coley Davis
Road, & I-40
Governor Phil Bredesen tours
flood-damaged areas
Jackson, Madison County
Opry Mills Mall

39. Cost of doing nothing is great
Portions of Interstates I-40, I-24, and I-65 were closed because of
flooding. According to the Tennessee Emergency Management
Agency (TEMA), "The flooding and storms caused the deaths of
24 persons.
Because of the flood the AASHTO Climate Change Workshop
hosted by TDOT had to be relocated.
TDOT spent over $40 million in initial cleanup and emergency
repairs to infrastructure.
I-40

40. Public Health Impacts and Costs
There are also public health threats associated with extreme weather.
Children, the elderly, and the poor are most vulnerable to a range of
climate-related health effects, including those related to heat stress, air
pollution, extreme weather events (floods, drought), and diseases
carried by food, water, and insects.
President Obama (2012) – “We can choose to believe that Super Storm
Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires
some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can
choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science — and act
before it's too late." In 2012, extreme weather cost the US $110 B.

41. Impacts on Human Health
Health may be damaged indirectly by climate-change-related
ecological disruptions, such as crop failures or shifting patterns of
disease vectors, or by social responses to climate change, such as
displacement of populations following prolonged drought or floods.
According to the UN- IPCC, local changes in temperature and rainfall
have altered distribution of some water-borne illnesses and disease
vectors and have reduced food production for some vulnerable
populations.

42. Environmental Stress is a Risk
Multiplier

43. DoD Releases Report on Security
Implications of Climate Change – 2015
The report finds that climate change is a security risk, Pentagon
officials said, because it degrades living conditions, human security
and the ability of governments to meet the basic needs of their
populations.
Communities and states that already are fragile and have limited
resources are significantly more vulnerable to disruption and far
less likely to respond effectively and be resilient to new
challenges, they added.

44. Impacts in North America
Per the UN- IPCC, many climate-related hazards that carry risk,
particularly related to severe heat, heavy precipitation, and declining
snowpack, will increase in frequency and/or severity in North America
in the next decades (very high confidence, 99% certainty).
Climate change will amplify risks to water resources already affected
by non-climatic stressors, with potential impacts associated with
decreased snowpack, decreased water quality, urban flooding, and
decreased water supplies for urban areas and irrigation (95%
confidence).

45. Bald Eagle
Climate change is altering the distribution of species.
Scientists are concerned that the national symbol of the United
States is projected to lose 73% of its current breeding range by
2080.

46. Policy debate can be intense
Climate skeptics: Climate change isn’t happening, or isn’t human-
induced
Environmental view: Transform land use, increase transit, and reduce
VMT
Techno-optimist view: Transform vehicle/fuel technology and
improve highway/driver operations
Pragmatic view: Combination - mostly vehicles/fuels, some
operational efficiency, plus modest role for land use, transit, and VMT
moderation

47. Policy Position on Climate Change
Climate change and related effects are complex; there
is no single, one-size-fits-all approach to addressing
these issues. We should focus resources on the
following areas:
1) Mitigation (reduce emissions)
2) Adaptation (modify infrastructure)
3) Sustainability Strategies
- Energy Efficiency
- Clean Energy Alternatives
- Align strategies (VMT reductions vs revenue)
4) Communicating and Disseminating Information
Unfortunately, we have already past the point of avoiding
impacts caused by climate change.

48. If we don’t lead, then we must follow.
We must be policy leaders or others will frame the discussion and
define our fate.
We should identify and engage stakeholders and develop a plan
of action.
Local jurisdictions could and should model the way for the state
and then the nation to create win-win sustainability strategies.

49. Summary
• Gases in Earth’s atmosphere keep the planet warmer than it would
otherwise be without the atmosphere.
• This natural condition is analogous to how a greenhouse maintains a
warmer temperature than its surrounding environment.
• There is a natural balance to the biogeochemical cycle of elements like
carbon.
• The human population is disrupting this natural balance in the carbon
cycle by extracting and burning fossil fuels, causing carbon to accumulate
in the atmosphere at a higher rate than it would under natural
conditions.
• Warming average, global temperatures disrupt climatic/weather patterns
causing droughts in some locations and flooding in others.
• Rising temperatures change the natural distribution of species, which
disrupts ecosystems and contributes to the loss of biodiversity.
• Climate change is a cumulative problem and threatens global stability of
ecosystems, societies, and economies.
• Substantial efforts are needed to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions.
• We must mitigate, adapt, and plan, but we have passed the point of
avoiding impacts caused by climate change.
• Delay will magnify the challenges of GHG emission reduction and the
impacts to the planet, to people, and to profits.

50. Who said that?
“Restoring nature to its natural state is a cause beyond party and
beyond factions. It has become a common cause of all the people
of this country. It is a cause of particular concern to young
Americans, because they more than we will reap the grim
consequences of our failure to act on programs which are needed
now if we are to prevent disaster later.”
Richard Nixon
Annual Message to Congress on the State of the Union
1970

51. Who said that?
“If we’ve learned any lessons during the past few decades, perhaps
the most important is that preservation of our environment is not a
partisan challenge; it’s common sense. Our physical health, our
social happiness, and our economic well-being will be sustained
only by all of us working in partnership as thoughtful, effective
stewards of our natural resources.”
Ronald Reagan
Remarks on signing annual report of Council on Environmental
Quality, July 11, 1984

52. Who said that?
“In pursuit of this goal, my government has set two priorities: we must
clean our air, and we must address the issue of global climate change.
We must also act in a serious and responsible way, given the scientific
uncertainties. While these uncertainties remain, we can begin now to
address the human factors that contribute to climate change. Wise
action now is an insurance policy against future risks. “
George W. Bush
Silver Springs, Maryland
2002

53. Who said that?
“Some urge we do nothing because we can’t be certain how bad
the climate problem might become or they presume the worst
effects are most likely to occur in our grandchildren’s lifetime. I’m
a proud conservative, and I reject that kind of live-for-today, ‘me
generation,’ attitude. It is unworthy of us and incompatible with
our reputation as visionaries and problem solvers. Americans
have never feared change. We make change work for us.”
John McCain
Address at Center for Strategic and International Studies
April 23, 2007

54. Who said that?
“The shift to a cleaner energy economy won’t happen overnight,
and it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is
settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s
children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave
them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I
want us to be able to say yes, we did.”
Barack Obama
State of the Union
January 28, 2014
Source “Our 10 Favorite Climate Quotes by President Barack Obama in 2014: Climate Action Reserve,” January
20, 2015, accessed September 7, 2016, http://www.climateactionreserve.org/blog/2015/01/20/our-10-favorite-
climate-quotes-by-president-barack-obama-in-2014/.

55. Who said that?
Asked if he is concerned about climate change …
"Clearly there is going to be an impact. But people will adapt to
rising sea levels and changing climates that may force agricultural
production to shift. We have spent our entire existence adapting.
We'll adapt. It's an engineering problem and there will be an
engineering solution.“
Rex W. Tillerson CEO and Chairman Exxon Mobil Corporation
June 27, 2012
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jun/28/exxonmobil-climate-change-rex-tillerson
ExxonMobil earned $16.2 Billion in 2015
Tillerson #141 Forbes wealthiest with $9.73 M in
compensation annually