TELLING DATA-DRIVEN
CLIMATE STORIES
Zachary Labe, PhD
Climate Scientist at NOAA GFDL & Princeton University
zachary.labe@noaa.gov
The City College of New York – 24 March 2023 – Journalism and The Climate Change Narrative

RESEARCHER
Climate signal vs. weather noise
@ZLabe
COMMUNICATOR
RESEARCHER
Arctic climate change
STORYTELLER
Simple, bold data visualization
ZACHARY LABE
Climate Scientist at Princeton University & NOAA GFDL
@ZLabe
https://zacklabe.com/

The Arctic is warming more than 3 times
faster than the global average!

The Arctic is warming more than 3 times
faster than the global average!

NOW
Start of
satellite-era

The Arctic.

Observing ice.

Ice-covered
No Ice

Carbon
Brief;
Tom
Prater,
2020

NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILIITY

Temperature

Temperature
Time (Years)
Temperature

Temperature
Time (Years)
Temperature
Trend
Trend

Temperature Average

Temperature Average

Temperature Anomaly
Below Average

Temperature Anomaly
Above Average

Internal (Natural) Variability
No climate change

Climate Change

Climate (Forced) Change
Except it is probably not linear…

Climate (Forced) Change
Internal Variability

Climate (Forced) Change
Internal Variability
El Niño
La Niña
Volcano
Negative
AMO
Positive
PDO
Positive
AMO

Climate (Forced) Change
Internal Variability
El Niño
La Niña
Volcano
Negative
AMO
Positive
PDO
Positive
AMO

Climate (Forced) Change
Future change

Internal Variability Natural Variability
Volcanoes
Solar Activity
Orbital Cycles
Aerosols
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
Pacific Decadal Variability
Southern Annular Mode
Northern Annular Mode
Forced Change
Burning of fossil fuels Aerosols, land use/land change

WHY?

Mostly the
ocean

ANNUAL TEMPERATURES
Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)
Time

Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)

Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)

Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)

Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)

Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)

Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)

Temperature
Anomaly
(°C)

The reality…
El Niño
La Niña
Volcano
Negative
AMO
Positive
PDO
Positive
AMO
Extreme
Event
Extreme
Event
Extreme
Event

Looking ahead.

October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980
Our planet
without change…

It’s not
too late!

Observed Arctic
temperatures from
1950 to 2021
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Simulated historical
Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2014
using a climate model
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Simulated Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2100 using a
climate model WITHOUT human-
caused climate change
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

What influences of climate
change do you see on
temperatures in the Arctic?
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Projected future Arctic
temperatures from
2015 to 2100 using a
climate model with
increases in fossil fuel
development
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Projected future Arctic
temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with moderate progress in
mitigation and other
sustainability goals
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Projected future Arctic
temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with a rapid reduction in
current emissions globally
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020
It’s not
too late!

Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

What about
extremes?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-lack-of-diversity-in-climate-science-research/

https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-south-climate-database/

DATA VISUALIZATION
IS STORY-TELLING.
Arctic temperature anomalies from 1950 to 2021

VISUALIZING
GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE
CHANGE

PLOT BY ED HAWKINS

2016 RIO OLYMPICS OPENING CEREMONY

PLOT BY ED HAWKINS

PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
DON’T BE
SUCH A
SCIENTIST
WE ARE
DATA
SCIENTISTS

https://showyourstripes.info/

THE CLIMATE IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Considering a global view of
temperatures relative to
average – placing weather in
the context of climate

THE ARCTIC IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Daily Arctic temperature in
2018 (red) compared to
every year since 1958 in the
month of February. Average
is shown by the white line.

THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNITY
TO COMMUNICATE

2016
Average

THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNITY
TO SHARE STORIES.

START A
CONVERSATION.

[International
Arctic
Research
Center
[IARC;
University
of
Alaska,
Fairbanks]

My
Dashboard

My
Dashboard

Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
Is this effective
communication?

Crystal Serenity Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016

Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
We need scientists.
We need educators.
We need innovators.
We need communicators.

Sharing climate change and extreme events in real-time.
Supporting climate resilience and environmental justice.
Identifying climate impacts with data-driven visualizations.
Using a diversity of voices to communicate.
Questions!
Zachary Labe | 24 March 2023| zachary.labe@noaa.gov
@ZLabe
https://zacklabe.com/