Presenter: Paul Mealy, Director of Interactive, POP Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality are no longer a blip on the technology horizon. They've arrived. And if you haven't started planning on what they might mean to your business, you may already be a step behind. And with change in the VR and AR space happening so quickly, it can be difficult to separate the signal from the noise. In fact, some technological naysayers are already pining VR and AR as just another fad that will die out similar to the Nintendo Virtual Boy of old. In this talk, Paul will help you separate what warrants your attention in the virtual reality/augmented reality/mixed reality space, and where it might make sense to focus your business development efforts.

1. VR & AR
AREN’T
DEAD…they’re pining for the fjords

2. Shared
vocabulary

3. Source: Valve: Virtual Reality: Steam VR - YouTube
Virtual Reality

4. Augmented Reality

5. Source: TED: A futuristic vision of the age of Holograms
Mixed Reality

6. When I was preparing for this talk leadup…”virtual reality is dead” google search VS…..? “GodFather 3 is the worst”…the godfather part 3 is the worst, etc

7. Virtual Reality
is Dead.

11. Augmented Reality
is Dead?

14. …maybe Mixed Reality?

16. “We’re setting a goal:
we want to get a billion
people in virtual reality.”
- Mark Zuckerburg, Oct 11, 2017

18. Source: Alexander Andrews - Unsplash
How did we
get here?

19. “I think when HTC first introduced its
product, and Oculus back in 2016, it
was probably overhyped. People had to
go and buy a big PC and set up a lot of
wires, and so nobody did it”
- Alvin Wang Graylin, HTC Head of VR, China (Mobile World Live)
Source: Verena Yunita Yapi - Unsplash

20. Source: Verena Yunita Yapi - Unsplash
Gartner Hype
Cycle

21. Gartner Hype Cycle, July 2017
Innovation
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Time
Expectations
Augmented Reality
Virtual Reality
July 2017

22. Gartner Hype Cycle, August 2018
Innovation
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Time
Expectations
Augmented Reality
Mixed Reality
August 2018

23. Source: Annie Spratt - Unsplash
Where are we
coming from?

24. First Generation VR
2016-2018
Source: NeONBRAND - Unsplash

25. First Generation VR Devices
High End Mid-tier Low end

26. First Generation VR - High End
Oculus Rift HTC Vive Windows Mixed Reality
Pictured - Samsung Odyssey
PlayStation VR

27. First Generation VR - Mid-tier
Samsung Gear VR Google Daydream

28. First Generation VR - Low-end
Google Cardboard variants

29. First Generation MR
2016-? (2020)
Source: Microsoft HoloLens: Used with permission from Microsoft

30. First Generation MR Devices
High End Mid-tier Low end

31. First Generation MR - High End
Microsoft HoloLens Meta 2 Magic Leap One

32. First Generation MR - Mid-tier
Mira Prism
Lenovo Star Wars:
Jedi Challenges

33. First Generation MR - Low-end
iOS - ARKit Android - ARCore

34. What happened?
What are people complaining about?
Source: Roseanna Smith - Unsplash

35. Virtual Reality issues
First generation

36. VR Consumer issues
Source: rawpixel - Unsplash
Cost
Price to get into “good” VR

37. Source: Steve Johnson - Unsplash
User Friction
External computers, Wires, beacons
VR Consumer issues

38. Lack of content
No “killer app” for users
VR Consumer issues

39. VR issues
Source: OffPeak Games - YouTube
Simulator Sickness
Motion sickness
VR Platform issues

40. VR issues
AntiSocial
Solitary experiences
VR Platform issues

41. Locomotion
Movement in the digital world
VR Platform issues

42. Display
Field-of-view
VR Platform issues

43. Display
Screen door effect
VR Platform issues

44. Source: Marc Kleen - Unsplash
Mixed Reality issues
First generation…?

45. Source: Jacob Edward - Flickr (SeniorPlanning.org)
CostPrice to get into MR, period
MR Consumer issues

46. Form factor
Not quite glasses just yet
MR Consumer issues

47. Lack of content
Very little user content
MR Consumer issues

48. Display
Field-of-view, resolution, occlusion
MR Platform issues

49. Tracking
Marker-less tracking, environmental understanding, occlusion
MR Platform issues

50. Source: Patrick Schneider - Unsplash
Interaction
User experience
MR Platform issues

51. Source: Erwan Hesry - Unsplash

52. Where are
we now?…and where are we going?

53. VR Generation 1.5
2018

54. VR Generation 1.5
HTC Vive Pro Oculus Go
April 5, 2018
May 1, 2018

55. VR Generation 2.0?
2019-2020
Oculus Santa Cruz prototype: Image courtesy Oculus

56. HTC Vive Focus
January (China)
Late Fall (U.S.)
Oculus Quest
Spring 2019
VR Generation 2.0
Late fall 2018
Pimax 8k

57. VR Solutions
How are the next generation solving the issues?

58. Cost
Generation 2/3 and ongoing (1 to 5 years)
VR Consumer solutions

59. User Friction
Generation 2/3 (1 to 5 years)
Source: Oculus Quest: Under the hood - Youtube
VR Consumer solutions

60. “2018 and beyond, it’s coming to a new
trajectory… now, when it’s so easy to get this
and people can just bring it home and try it,
and be in it right away, I think that’s going to
change the whole game completely”
- Alvin Wang Graylin, HTC Head of VR, China (Mobile World Live)
Source: HTC Vive Focus Hands On - Engadget - Youtube
VR Platform solutions

61. Lack of content
Generation ?
Source: Tilt Brush: Painting from a new perspective - Youtube
VR Consumer solutions

62. Simulator Sickness
Generation 2 and beyond (1 to 3 years)
VR Platform solutions
Source: OffPeak Games - YouTube

63. VR solutions
AntiSocial
Generation 2 (1 to 5 years)
Source: Pluto VR Early Access trailer - Youtube
VR Platform solutions

64. Locomotion
Generation 2 (1 to 3 years)
Source: Unlimited Corridor: Keigo Matsumoto - YouTube
VR Platform solutions

65. Locomotion
Generation 3 and beyond (5 to 7 years)
Source: Infinadeck - YouTube
VR Platform solutions

66. Displays
Generation 2 and beyond (1 to 5 years)
VR Platform solutions

67. MR Generation 0.5
2018…

68. MR Generation 2.0
…??? (2020-2023)

69. MR Solutions
How are the next generation solving the issues?

70. Cost
Generation 3 (5 to 7 years)
MR Consumer solutions

71. Form Factor
Generation 3 (5 to 10 years)
MR Consumer solutions

72. Lack of content
Generation ? Needs supporting consumer hardware
Source: Microsoft HoloLens: HoloStudio - Youtube
Used with permission from Microsoft
MR Consumer solutions

73. Display
Generation 2/3 (5 to 7 years)
MR solutions
Used with permission from Microsoft

74. Tracking
Generation 2 (3 to 4 years)
MR solutions
Source: Microsoft HoloLens: Spatial Mapping - Youtube
Used with permission from Microsoft

75. Interaction
Generation 2/3 (3 to 7 years)
MR solutions
Source: HaptX media kit

76. Are VR/MR dead?

77. NO

78. 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast 2019 Forecast
Source: idc.com
* Headsets only, does not include ARKit/ARCore implementations
Mixed Reality
Virtual Reality
VR/MR headset sales 2017 - 2019
~8 million
~9 million
~16 million

79. Source: idc.com
* Headsets only, does not include ARKit/ARCore implementations
Mixed Reality
Virtual Reality
iPhone Gen 1
Source: statista.com
2017 Actual 2018 Forecast 2019 Forecast 2007 2008 2009
~8 million
~9 million
~16 million
~1.5 million
~11.5 million
~20 million
VR/MR headset sales 2017 - 2019
iPhone Gen 1 sales 2007-2009

80. 585ARKit-compatible devices
633ARCore-compatible devices
Source: artillry.co
Millions of devices
* estimated for end of 2018

81. $215billion by 2021
Source: Worldwide Semiannual Augmented and Virtual Reality spending guide: IDC

83. Source: UploadVR: Oculus Quest Arena Colocation - Youtube
VR’s future

84. Source: Oculus: Upload VR
“Imagine AR glasses that are socially acceptable
and all-day wearable, that give you useful virtual
objects like your phone, your TV and virtual work
spaces, that give you perceptual super powers, a
context-aware personal assistant, and above all
the ability to connect, share and collaborate with
others anywhere, any time. While it may be hard
to believe, it’s all doable.”
- Michael Abrash, Chief Scientist, Facebook Reality Labs (UploadVR)

85. “We believe augmented reality
is going to change the way
we use technology forever. [It]
will change everything. ”
- Tim Cook, Apple CEO, December 2017
Source: Deadline

86. “The phone is already dead.
People just haven’t realized.”
- Alex Kipman
Source: Bloomberg

87. Us
Critical
Mass

88. “And within… ten minutes, it was obvious to
me that all computers would work like this
some day. It was obvious. You could argue
about how many years it would take. You
could argue about who the winners and
losers might be. You couldn’t argue about
the inevitability, it was so obvious.”
- Steve Jobs, on seeing the first-ever personal computer, the Xerox Alto, 1979

89. FIN.

90. Q&A