Venture*21 Essentials for SPI Buyer Direct
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Venture*21 is a demand forecasting module that uses statistical methods to generate automated weekly forecasts. It features multiple forecasting techniques, top-down and bottom-up alignment of forecasts, new item forecasting, event management, exception reporting, and integration with master scheduling. The module allows forecasting at different product hierarchy levels and includes default forecasting methods, size templates, and administration tools for setup and maintenance.
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Venture*21 Essentials for SPI Buyer Direct
- 2. Session Goals • Module Overview • Key Functions • Forecast Methods • Default Forecasts • Events • SKU Allocations: Default Size Templates • Forecast Volatility Exception Reporting • Additional Features • Review of Screens • Administration
- 3. Overview of Venture*21 • Highly automated weekly demand forecasting – utilizing statistical engine • Features allow the user to remain in control
- 4. Overview of Venture*21 • Multiple forecasting methods • Forecast at all levels of the merchandise hierarchy • Top-down bottom-up forecast alignment • New item forecasting • Manage demand associated with promotions (a.k.a. Events) • Calculates lost sales and considers in future forecasts • Exception management • Integrated with Master Scheduling
- 6. Forecast Methods: Expert • Statistical Forecasting Method • “Expertly” selects one of the following: • Exponential Smoothing • 12 Models • Curve Fitting • Croston’s Intermittent Demand • Box-Jenkins, Including Seasonal Models • ARIMA Models
- 7. Forecast Methods: Expert • Best when used on high volume Products or relatively stable Products • Commonly used on Merchandise Hierarchy Levels • Can be Linked to Products or Hierarchy averages • Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
- 8. Forecast Methods: 1YS • Exponential Smoothing (Winters method) • Use when the most recent 52-week period is most relevant • Will be used if Expert is selected and > 55 weeks of History and < 104 weeks of History • Ability to Link to comparable Products or Hierarchy Levels • Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
- 9. Forecast Methods: SALY • Index last year’s Actuals to get this year’s Forecast for a Product • Can be Linked to other Products or Hierarchy Levels • Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
- 10. Forecast Methods: F21 • Only available if Forecast*21 and Venture*21 modules installed • Index to the Forecast*21 Forecast developed for the same Product in the same Division • Can be Linked to other Products or Merchandise Hierarchy Levels • Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
- 11. Forecast Methods: Flat • Set a flat Forecast amount per week • Can calculate an average Forecast based on last n weeks of historical using Olympic Averaging • While it is calculated as a Flat value, the weekly amount can vary if you apply the top-down Hierarchy adjustment • Best for slow movers or items with short reorder lead time
- 12. Forecast Methods: Multiple • Assign a Base Forecast Method to the Product • Override the Method for one or more time periods • Best for Products with high-volume peak season and significant shift to low volume in other periods
- 13. Forecast Methods • Forecasts can be calculated at multiple levels: • Company • Category • Subcategory • Product • Higher level Forecasts can then be imposed on lower levels to take advantage of Forecast accuracy at higher levels User-Defined Hierarchy
- 14. KEY FUNCTIONS: Default Forecast Methods
- 15. Default Forecast Methods • Can be any Method • New Products apply the assigned Default Method • Can apply an Index • Can link to specific Merchandise Hierarchy Level or Product
- 16. Default Forecast Methods • Default Methods can be set on any level of the Hierarchy • Identified by the blue dot • Sets the Default Forecast Method for assigned Products below that Level
- 17. Default Forecast Methods • Default Method applied shows from which Level the Method is inherited • To adjust Method on the Product, uncheck the Default Method Applied box • New Products are set to Default Method
- 19. Events • Events are occurrences such as a sale or promotion that affects demand in a given week or weeks for one or more Products • Events are seen on the Forecast Graph widget for those nodes or Products in the Event • Event demand impact is added into the final forecasts
- 20. Events: Graph
- 21. Events: Effect
- 22. Events • Actual Effect is calculated using Statistical Methods • Planned Effect can be set by looking at performance of Other Events • Impact Types • Additive – uses static unit and revenue values • Multiplicative – uses indexed units and revenue values • Planned Effect can only be applied to a single event based on the event priority • Planned Events can be imported from Excel spreadsheet
- 23. KEY FUNCTIONS: SKU Allocations: Default Size Templates
- 24. SKU Allocations • Extend forecast from Product level to color and/or size level
- 25. SKU Allocations: Size Templates • Default size allocations can be applied from assigned template
- 26. SKU Allocations: Size Templates • Assign at the Merchandise Hierarchy and/or Vendor level
- 28. Forecast Volatility • Measures the change in forecast from prior week to current week for the future 6-week time period • Purpose is to provide the user with forward-looking exception reporting of significant changes in Product level forecast that could create a negative impact on inventory service levels
- 29. Forecast Volatility • Available in the DRS tab within Venture*21
- 30. Forecast Volatility • User can navigate to individual Product to review and adjust Forecast
- 31. OTHER FEATURES
- 32. Other Features • Supports a User-Defined Hierarchy • Category, Subcategory • Family, Department, Class • Accommodates Products with different Beginning and Ending Dates • Input weekly Revenue Plan and monitor Forecast versus the Revenue Plan • View and manage Forecasts in Units or Revenue
- 33. Other Features • View Product Image on screen • Calculate historical Lost Sales and adjust future period forecasts • Calculates Forecast Variance as well as Forecast Volatility • View Year-Over-Year Forecasts and Forecast Trends • Common Database with other SPI Buyer Direct modules
- 35. SPI Buyer Direct Dashboard • Launch Venture*21 from the Dashboard
- 37. Componentized - Built with Widgets
- 38. Forecast Graph • Displays Historical Actuals • Shows future Forecasts from Reforecast process • Shows Forecasts based on selected Forecast Method
- 39. Forecast Graph: Legend • Use the Legend button to display definitions of each line on Graph • Hover over Week Number to see Date Range
- 40. Forecast Graph: Options • The Options button allows the user to select which data to display • Specify how many weeks of history and which forecasts to show on the window
- 41. Forecast Graph: Fitted History • Fitted History (gold line) shows how well the Expert Method correlates to the history
- 42. Forecast Graph: Year Over Year • Shows 52 weeks at a time • Each year is graphed in a different color • Vertical red line indicates the current week
- 43. Forecast Graph: Trend Line • Trend Line options • Linear • Quadratic • Exponential
- 44. History: Weekly View • History is displayed in units or revenue • Current week is the first week • Ability to toggle between fiscal weeks and dates
- 45. History: Summary • History is summarized by month or quarter • Buckets are configurable in Fiscal Calendar • Green column is the current period
- 46. Product Info • Displays Product Information for the User • Shows Dates Offered and SKU Pricing
- 47. SKU Allocations • SKU Allocations allows the user to see and manage color/size allocations from the product to the SKUs • The current allocation is displayed • User can create new allocations for future weeks
- 48. Bring The Widgets Together
- 49. ADMINISTRATION
- 50. Ventures • Define how Ventures behave • Scale Method • Top down • Rollup • Hybrid • Apply Revenue Plan
- 51. Merchandise Hierarchy Levels • Supports a user-defined hierarchy • Category, Subcategory • Family, Department, Class • Number of Levels defined when implemented • Names can be changed
- 52. Merchandise Hierarchy • Add Additional “Nodes” • New Category • New Subcategory • Maintain Hierarchy Descriptions
- 53. Product Images • Images assigned to products are displayed in Venture*21 • Managed From: • Venture*21 – Product Images • Administration – Product/SKU Images • Administration – Bulk Load Images • Uploaded from Excel Spreadsheet
- 54. Product Images
- 56. Product Images: Bulk Upload
- 57. Reforecast Schedule • Schedule Reforecasts • Set Parameters for Reforecast • Determine which Ventures to include
- 58. Recap • Module Overview • Key Functions • Forecast Methods • Default Forecasts • Events • SKU Allocation – Default Templates • Forecast Volatility (exception reporting) • Additional Features • Review of Screens • Administration
- 59. Questions
- 60. Contact Me •Joe Palzkill Email: joe.palzkill@spi.com Phone: 608.574.8900