Barbara Chimani PLACARD Foresight workshop – reducing vulnerability to climate-related hazards 24–25 October 2016 National Met Service (ZAMG), Vienna Thirty five experts from three different science, policy and practice communities – CCA, DRR and foresight – joined us to explore whether foresight can help to reduce climate vulnerability. The answer was positive: combining qualitative and quantitative foresight methods in visioning exercises can help to integrate the two issues.

1. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken
Use of climate data for risk
reduc1on – CCA and DRR
perspec1ve
Barbara Chimani Barbara Chimani
h:p://www.ryylxjw.com/agriculture-wallpapers/41829438.html
www.wallpapersxl.com
h:p://www.desktopimages.org

2. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken
• Concepts to adapta1on to climate change need high
quality, high resolu1on climatological data
• Funded by Federa1on of Austria and all provinces
• Crea1on and Interpreta1on of high resolu1on
climate informa1on on past, present and future and
climate changes
Introduc0on

3. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Background: Observa0onal Data
1km gridded data: 1961 – 2011
5 Parameter – daily values:
• precipita1on
• Temperature minimum/maximum
• (global radia1on/sunshine dura1on)
1km gridded data: 1981 – 2000

4. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Background
EURO-Cordex:
29 groups, 10 RCMs,13GCMs (from CMIP5) => simula0ons in 50km resolu0on
simula0ons in 12.5km resolu0on
Used in Project:
12.5km resolu0on
2 representa0ve concentra0on pathways:
RCP 4.5: climate protec0on-szenario / RCP 8.5: business as usual-szenario
each 13 models
(IPCC, 2014)
RCP8.5: ~4°C
RCP4.5: ~2,7°C
RCP2.6: >1,5°C

5. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Background: Model data
12.5 km
~1 km

6. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Background: climate change and uncertain0es
∆M
M1
M2
• Calcula1on of climate means (M) and natural variability (NV)
• analyse changes 1986-2010 to 1961-1985
• ∆M>NV à „significant“
past
Climate change signal
0
Climate change signal:
1971-2000 to 2021-2050
1971-2000 to 2071-2100
future
S<50% S>50%
Ü<80% no signif. change Li:le model
agreement
Ü>80% no signif. change signif. change

7. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Climate Indizes
temperature based
precipitation based
radiation based

8. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Climate change: Past
mean
temperature
median
mean

9. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Climate change: Past
Precipita0on
sum

10. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Climate change: Past
Mean precipitation
intensity on days with
precipitation

11. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Results: Past
• Increase in temperature and changes in temperature dependend climate indices aUer 1950,
accelera1ng aUer 1980. regional and seasonal differences
• Changes in temperature and temperature depending climate indices in many regions significant
and consistent with long term signals..
• Only small long-term changes in precipita1on since 1860, regionally strong fluctua1ons
superimposed
• Increase in annual precipita1on in Austria compared to 1961-1985 due to minimum around
1975.
• Natural fluctua1ons in precipita1on bigger than possible current climate change signals.
• Convec1ve events or other short term precipita1on extremes are not considered in these
analyses.

12. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Graphic Explana0on Climate change signal
+
-
0
Median
q50
q10 q90

13. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Climate change: Future
near
future
(2021-2050)
far
future
(2071-2100)
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
mean temperature Ref: 1971-2000
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
RCP4.5 RCP8.5

14. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Climate change: Future
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
far
future
(2071-2100)
far
future
(2071-2100)
RCP8.5 - winter RCP8.5 - summer
Precipita0on amount
RCP4.5 - year RCP8.5 - year
Ref: 1971-2000

15. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Climate change: Future
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
q50
q10 q90
near
future
(2021-2050)
far
futur
(2071-2100)
Precipita0on intensity
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Ref: 1971-2000

16. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Results: Future
- Near future: only small differences between szenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5)
- Far future: greater differences between szenarios (especially for temperature)
*not significant; ** in mountains not significant
2071-2100 Climate protec;on
szenario (RCP 4.5)
Business-as-usual szenario
(RCP 8.5)
Annual mean temperature +2,3°C +4°C
Annual precipita0on amount +7,1% +8,7%
Frost day (annual) -41,8 days -70 days
Hot days (annual) +7 days ** +17,7 days
Precipita0on days +0,5 days* +1,3 days *
Dry episodes (annual) -2,8 days* +2,2 days*

17. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken Factsheets
• For federal provinces and communi0es
• Climate change informa0on for mean
temperature, precipita0on amount and
selected climate indices

18. Formatvorlage des Unter0telmasters durch Klicken
• Date available in CCCA-data center e.g. for studies
concerning climate adap0on and disaster risk
reduc0on
• h:ps://www.ccca.ac.at/de/datenportal/
• h:ps://sandboxdc.ccca.ac.at/
• Data integrated in GIS-systems of the federal
provinces
• Factsheets (partly) available via homepage of
federal provinces
Outlook