Markus Leitner, Rob Swart and Tiago Capela Lourenco PLACARD Foresight workshop – reducing vulnerability to climate-related hazards 24–25 October 2016 National Met Service (ZAMG), Vienna Thirty five experts from three different science, policy and practice communities – CCA, DRR and foresight – joined us to explore whether foresight can help to reduce climate vulnerability. The answer was positive: combining qualitative and quantitative foresight methods in visioning exercises can help to integrate the two issues.

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FORESIGHT WORKSHOP - HOW CAN
FORESIGHT HELP TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY
TO CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS?
Markus Leitner, Rob Swart and Tiago
Capela Lourenco
24th of October 2016, Vienna

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PLA;orm for Climate AdaptaGon
and Risk reDucGon

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CCA – DRR OVERLAP
Source: Mitchell and van Aalst, 2008

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WHY LINK CCA AND DRR?
• Weak coherence and consistency
• Conflicts and barriers between CCA
and DRR
• Missed opportuniLes for learning
and cooperaLon
• Inefficient communicaLon
(misinterpretaLon/ conflicts)
• Messy landscape of actors, risk of
repeLLon and confusion for
stakeholders
• Reduced effecLveness of CCA and
DRR
ü • Consistent understanding and
approaches
• OpportuniLes and improving pracLce
• Enhanced learning
• Improving efficiency and
effecLveness
• BeVer use of resources
• New perspecLves on the ‘wicked
issue’ of climate change
• A clear map of who does what
X

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PLACARD
Plaorm for Climate AdaptaLon and Risk reDucLon
(Start date: June 2015; DuraLon: 5 years)
Key goal:
Establish a coordinaLon and knowledge exchange plaorm for mulL-
stakeholder dialogue and consultaLon between CCA and DRR research, policy
and pracLce communiLes across scales

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PLACARD FLYER

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HOW PLACARD WILL SEEK TO ENHANCE THE
COOPERATION BETWEEN CCA AND DRR?
• provide a common ‘space’ where CCA and DRR communiLes can
come together, share experiences and create opportuniLes for
collaboraLon;
• facilitate communicaLon and knowledge exchange between both
communiLes; and
• support the coordinaLon and coherence of CCA and DRR research,
policy and pracLce.

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WORKSHOP - INTRO
Foresight Workshop - How can foresight help to reduce
vulnerability to climate-related hazards?
Climate Change AdaptaGon (CCA) and Disaster Risk ReducGon (DRR)
• Paris Agreement at COP21 on climate change
• Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReducLon
• both – major steps towards increasing resilience to climate-
related extreme events.

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QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION
• Long-term risk and response analyses in support of these
agreements and the IPCC assessments tend to be dominated by
the development and formal analysis of RepresentaLve
ConcentraLon Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs).
• Such analyses are an important mechanism to advance
analyLcal knowledge about future risks, they constrain creaLve
analysis
• BUT there is a complementary role for more qualitaGve
foresight developed by diverse experts and stakeholders to
explore future risks and opportuniGes.

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WHAT CAN FORESIGHT DO?
Foresight can strengthen both CCA and DRR in terms of
Ü science, policy and pracLce, and
Ü link with other internaLonal mechanisms such as the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and
Ü explore the implicaLons of the global agreements for
European, naLonal and local acLon.

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WORKSHOP OBJECTIVES
Ü Explore the potenGal role of foresight methods, tools and
processes to inform the implementaGon of the UNFCCC
adaptaLon and Sendai disaster risk reducLon mechanisms;
Ü IdenGfy relevant long-term trends (global mega-trends) and
surprise events (wildcards) and developments which would
have implicaGons for DRR and CCA
Ü Explore the needs and prioriLes of connecLng climate
change, disaster risk response, sustainable development and
other communiLes with respect to foresight.

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FORESIGHT DEFINITION (FLIS INTEREST GROUP)
Foresight …
v … is a forward-looking approach that aims to help decision-
makers explore and anGcipate in a parGcipatory way what
might happen,
v …prepare for a range of possible future scenarios, influence
them and shape the futures.
Foresight typically involves systemaGc, parGcipatory, future-
intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-
building processes to uncover a range of possible alternaGve
future visions.

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FORESIGHT DEFINITION (FLIS INTEREST GROUP)
Source:
hVp://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/eur20128en.pdf

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FORESIGHT
Current
Realities
(mental maps)
Multiple Paths
Alternative
Future Images
FORESIGHT

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FORESIGHT – USE AND HELP
Where does foresight help?
Ü taking the feat out of change
Ü understanding your changing world, thus taking beVer
decisions
Ü reducing risks
Ü talking about preparedness – not predicLon
Ü avoiding surprises
Ü staying innovaLve and relevant
Ü shaping the future, not just react
Ü Starts before planning, not aher

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ONLINE DIALOGUE
• Focus: the applicaLon of Foresight acLviLes, methods and tools in climate
change adaptaGon and disaster risk reducGon research and pracLce to
explore applicaLons, added value and examples of good pracLce.
– Join the dialogue on weADAPT:
hVps://www.weadapt.org/forum/join-the-debate-new-online-dialogue-on-
foresight-acLviLes-in-ccadrr
OR/AND
– Join the dialogue on PrevenLonWeb
• Register here:
hVp://groups.prevenLonweb.net/scripts/wa-PREVENTIONWEB.exe?
GETPW1=A0%3DDRRIM-L%26t%3D&X=&Y=
• Log in here:
hVp://groups.prevenLonweb.net/scripts/wa-PREVENTIONWEB.exe?
LOGON=A0%3dDRRIM-L%26t%3d&L=DRRIM-L
(we ensure there is cross-posLng of contribuLons)

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ONLINE DIALOGUE

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DURING AND AFTER THE WORKSHOP
– Share applicaGons and lessons learnt about foresight
approaches during and aber the workshop.
– QuesLons:
• What CCA-DRR topics could be explored using foresight
approaches to achieve beVer harmonizaLon between the two
communiLes, and how could this be achieved?
• How can outcomes from foresight acLviLes, support the
idenGficaGon of future research and implementaGon prioriLes
in CCA and DRR?
• Can you share examples of good pracLce where foresight has
been used to develop (novel) joint CCA and DRR methods and
tools?

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AGENDA DAY 1
Plenary with three presentaLons about the
Ü implicaLons of megatrends for CCA and DRR,
Ü followed by Scenarios as a foresight tool for CCA and
Ü Climate-data use for Risk ReducLon – CCA and DRR
perspecLve
Later three pitches of Mega-trend clusters:
Ü “Living and working”,
Ü “Health and wellbeing” and
Ü “Safe and secure” - followed by three working groups
Wrap up, ReflecLon and informaLon about the social event

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AGENDA DAY 2
Ü Quick wrap-up from day 1
Ü How can we reduce future risks of extreme weather and
climate change? - this session aims to focus on acLons to
improve the effecLveness of DRR and CCA and gives
parLcipants the chance to think of innovaLve ways of
reducing future risks – co-creaLng the future
Ü Roundtable - Which lessons can we learn from using
foresight for CCA and DRR integraLon?
Ü Summary and outlook

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WHO IS WHO
Ü Where are you from in Europe?
Ü Are you from DRR or CCA or other?
Ü Background (research, pracGGoner, governmental,
private)
Ü What would you like to contribute and / or get out of the
session today?