Blue Raster partnered with UNICEF to leverage data from the Center of International Earth Sciences (CIESIN), United Nations, the World Resources Institute, World Bank, World Health Organization, International Food Policy Research Institute, and USAID's Demographic Health Survey (DHS) Program to assess the risks of climate change on children around the world

1. Unless we act now:
Impact of climate change on
children
Kevin McMaster, GISP
Senior Project Manager
Blue Raster
a UNICEF publication

2. The Problem:
“There may be no greater, growing threat facing the world’s
children – and their children – than climate change.”

3. Ask the Question:
• How many children live in climate-affected areas,
and how many will live in future climate-affected
areas?

4. Where are children at risk of climate impact?
• What climate impacts are of concern
• Where are the children
• Location and number
• Current and future
• Where are the climate impacts expected
• Current and future
Refine the Question:

5. Explore the Data: Population
•Center of International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) 1-kilometer
world population grid (2010)
•United Nations 2015/2050 World
Population and Population Under 18 (by
Country)
•Demographic and Health Surveys (USAID
DHS Program) sub-national estimates and
boundaries (close to 90 countries)

6. Explore the Data: CIESIN Population

7. Explore the Data: UN Population
Estimates

8. Explore the Data: Country Boundaries
•Derived from GADM 2.8
•Updated to include all populated grid areas
•Attributed UN Regions and Sub-Regions

9. Explore the Data: DHS Sub-Regional

10. Build the Model: Child Population
One-kilometer grid
resolution

11. Explore the Data: Climate and
Indicators
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• World Resources Institute (WRI)
• World Health Organization (WHO)
• International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI)
• World Bank

12. Explore the Data: Indicators
• Anemia
• Low Birth Weight
• Stunting
• Wasting
• Human
Development
Index

13. Explore the Data: Climate Change
(temperature)

14. Explore the Data: Climate Change
(precipitation)

15. Analyze the Model:
•Compute Zonal Statistics by country and
population for climate risks zones using flood,
drought, severe weather and national indicators
for poverty, disease and access to sanitation

16. Interpret the Results:
•Microsoft Excel pivot tables were used as a
flexible presentation of the results
•Updated by user depending on section of
the report being written
•Summary charts and graphics

17. Interpret the Results: Pivot Table

18. Repeat as Necessary:
•Added indicators (areas in conflict,
development index)
•Removed 2100 year population estimate to
match climate models
•Updated Country Boundaries for UN
Cartography
•Added UNICEF regions and subregions
•Harmonized with UN population totals

19. Present the
Results: More than
half a billion children
live in extremely high
flood occurrence zones

20. Present the
Results: More than
270 Million children
in extremely high flood
occurrence zones with
low access to improved
sanitation

21. Present the
Results: More than
160 Million children
in high or extremely
high drought severity
zones

22. Present the
Results: More than 60
Million children live in
high or extremely high
drought severity zones
with low access to safe
water

23. Results: More than
1.45 Billion children
live in areas where
temperature will
increase by >2 degrees
under “business-as-
usual” scenario. Drops
to
150 Million under
“highly ambitious”
scenario.

24. Present the Results: Story Map (coming
soon)

25. Present the Results: Web AppBuilder Tool

26. Make a Decision:
1. Cut greenhouse gas emissions so that global
temperature increases are limited to a maximum of 2ºC,
and ideally to 1.5ºC.
2. Make the needs of the most vulnerable, including
children, central to climate change adaptation.
3. Reduce inequity among children now to promote their
future resilience to climate change.
4. Listen to and act on children’s perspectives on climate
change.
5. Provide children and youth with climate change
education, awareness raising and training.

27. Make a Decision (continued) :
6. Scale-up proven approaches to address the changing
needs of children.
7. Align and coordinate work on climate change
adaptation, preparedness and disaster risk reduction.
8. Put in place measures to protect children who have
been displaced, migrate or are refugees as a result of
climate change or climate-related impacts.
9. Invest in children when implementing national climate
plans on mitigation and adaptation.
10. Everyone should get involved.

28. Thank you!
Blue Raster
blueraster.com
UNICEF
Unless we act now: http://uni.cf/1HrFgdJ
Follow us: @blueraster