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Force 2017 – Changing the Culture
October 2017, Berlin
Dr. Gregor Hagedorn (MfN)
Daniel Mietchen (UVA)
Sustainable Development Goals:
Research Communication Ideas to
Accelerate the Work of all Disciplines
Towards the Future of Humankind
Twitter: @wozukunft (de)
@BiodivMatters (en)
BY-SA 4.0 Gregor Hagedorn (images may differ; as documented)
BACKGROUND
Earthrise, 1968
Earth and Moon from Cassini
RAUMSCHIFF
Escape to Space? Forget It!
Our Spaceship …
RAUMSCHIFF
Spaceship Management:
 Stored Goods and Energy
 Available Waste Storage
 Recycling Productivity
 Management, Repair, &
Innovation Capacity of Crew
Command bridge - a bit dated?, 1968
FORCE 2017
„Changing the Culture”
can contribute!
The Status of our
Planetary boundaries:
Stratospheric
Ozone
Depletion
Planetare Grenzen: Graphik
Graph recreated G. Hagedorn CC BY-SA 4.0, after Steffen, Richardson, Rockström, et al. 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet (CLOSED CONTENT)
Beyond
boundary
(HIGH RISK)
Zone of
Uncertainty
Safe Zone
Unknown
boundary,
not yet
quantified
Ocean acidification
Atmo-
spheric
Aerosol
Loading
Novel
Entities
Climate ChangeBiosphere
integrity
Land-
System
Change
Freshwater
Use
Functional
diversity
Genetic
diversity
Biogeochemical Flows
Phos-
phorus
Nitrogen
Biodiversity Loss
(Living Planet Index, WWF 2016)
Skylark:
-38%
Black-
tailed
Godwit:
-61%
Whin-
chat:
-65 % Lapwing:
-76%
Partridge:
-84%
Grafik:G.Hagedorn,2017.Quelle:DDA,Bestandsabnahme1990bis2015(Uferschn.2013).©Bilder,linksn.rechts:Kathy2408CCBY-SA4.0
;AndreasTrepteCCBY-SA2.5;MarekSzczepanekCCBY-SA3.0;HansHillewaertCCBY-SA3.0;MarekSzczepanekCCBY-SA3.0
Bird Populations in the last 25 years
Insects
BY-SA 4.0, Sandipoutsider
> 75% Decline of
Flying Insects in 25 years!
Biomass
Hallmannetal.2017,PLOSONEhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0185809
xkcd graphic
BY-NC 2.5, Randall Munroe, mod. G. Hagedorn. Data on right side average of Munroe/Smil 2003 and Smil 2010
Meat for
humans
Humans
Wild
Mammals
< 3 %!
Fertilizer
Fresh water
consumption
Fishery
Loss of
tropical forests
CO2
Graphiken modifiziert durch G. Hagedorn, nach WWF Living Planet Report Deutsche Kurzfassung (2016). Quelle: IGBP, 2016. basierend auf Analysen von Steffen et al., 2015b.
Population Transport
The Big Acceleration
Figueres Carbon Crunch 2017
GigatonsCO2-Emissions
ModifiedafterChristianaFigueres,H.J.-Schellnhuber,G.Whiteman,JohanRockström,A.Hobley&St.Rahmstorf:Nature2017
October
2017
22 Years
Acting now: Delay another 3 years (2020)
Was heißt das für unsere Kinder?
6 Years 28 Years
My son Magnus is …
October
2017
2040
Our generation must do
most of the work!
Environmental Impact ≈ Population
BY 2.0 © James Cridland
… × Affluence / Life style
BY-SA 2.0 © Lyzadanger & Diliff
(… umweltschonend = gutes Leben)
BY-SA 2.0 © Michael Stern
CC BY-SA 3.0 © Joxemai
… × Technological Efficiency
BY 2.0 Kārlis Dambrāns BY 3.0 M Paździora
BY 3.0 Stodtmeister
Population Growth
vs. Consumption
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
(Billion)
• Global Top 10: India|Nigeria|Pakistan|Tanzania|United
States|DR-Congo|Ethiopia|Philippines|Uganda|Kenya
• Do have some Children. Pass the seeds of Freedom
• Do not force others not to have children
• But: Support Policies that encourage a sustainable
number of children:
• Social Justice, Pension Systems
• Education, esp. for Women
• Inclusion of Women in the Economy
• Access to Family Planing
Population Growth
Complex Interactions
Biosphere
Energy &
Resource
Consumpt.
Fertilizer,
Pesticides
Land use
Basic Food
Luxury Food
Population
Affluence
+
+
+
+
−
−
+
−
+
10%
50%
Poorest 50%
cause only
10% of emissions
from individual
consumption
40%
49%RICH
↑
↓
POOR
41%
10%
Emissions from Consumption
(Derivative of Oxfam Briefing 2015, G. Hagedorn 2017)
If Area were Proportional to Ecologial Footprint:
(www.worldmapper.org CC BY-NC-ND 3.0; Data: Living Planet Report 2006)
RICH
↑
↓
POOR
Western Consumption Patterns
(CC BY-SA 4.0 © G. Hagedorn 2017)
Worse than
unsustainable:
Unachievable!
(on a limited planet)
Environmental Impact ≈
Population×Affluence×Efficiency
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
(Billion)
Global Population Growth
2017:
7.5 Billion
BY-SA 4.0 © Gregor Hagedorn
Environmental Impact ≈
Population×Affluence×Efficiency
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Population, Energy, CO2
CO2-Emissions
(1800 = population)
Energy
consumption
(1800 = population)
BY-SA 4.0 © Gregor Hagedorn
Environmental Impact ≈
Population×Affluence×Efficiency
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Population, Energy, CO2
1000×
scaled up!
BY-SA 4.0 © Gregor Hagedorn
16:9 ratio: Sportwagen 1
BY-SA 2.5, Kurt Kulac
16:9 ratio: Sportwagen 2
BY 2.0, www.twin-loc.fr
Driving against the wall
BY-SA 3.0, A. Christaras, modified G. Hagedorn
Transfixed by headlights
BY-SA 2.0 Fabrice Florin
Apokalypse Now in Red on Black
Deserted w. Text
The Future will happen!
• Not distant, but right here.
• No sexy thrilling Apokalypse.
• No Big Bang.
• But perhaps as an incredible hard
time for our children, who have to
pay back our debts.
Act Now!
M.Z. Jacobson (2017)
Real
Plans
2050 (in 33 years):
Energy: −50%, 100% RE
Economy & Agriculture:
95% Circular/Recycling
CO2-Emissions: Negative
Problem:
1. Scope
2. Psychology
Rich Countries
Have the Hardest
Task!
Sustainable
Development
Goals
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
SDG Orga circles
Economy Economy
Society
Society
Biosphere
Biosphere
(CC BY-SA 4.0 © Stockholm resilience centre, Gregor Hagedorn)
SDG Measurability
o 17 Broad Goals
o 169 More Concrete Targets
o 230 Measurable Indicators
o Since March 11, 2016
o Limited to available Official Statistics
o Many gaps or misleading traditions
• Decisions about resource allocation often based on
incomplete, inaccessible, or inaccurate data.
• Data4SDG: “global network of governments, NGOs, and
businesses working together to strengthen inclusivity, trust,
and innovation in the way data is used to address
sustainable development efforts.”
• Beyond official statistics: Standards for voluntary agreement
reporting, satellite data, citizen engagement tools, etc.
• “Enabling environment for harnessing the data
revolution for sustainable development”
Research
Communication
• Improving research & innovation speed helps!
• Broader engagement with science helps!
• Everything we do at FORCE2017 helps!
• OpenScience reduces time from research to result.
Not Nice, but Necessary!
• But can we:
• Prioritize issues and approaches
• Collect additional ideas?
Research Communication
• Incentivize Science to address SDGs
• … while preserving academic freedom
• Discuss responsibility of science
• Improve agility and speed of change
• Improve Public Awareness of Research Results
• … connecting more people with science
• … develop co-ownership of scientific results
• Improve Policy Impact of Research Results
Priority issues
• Improve general awareness of researchers
• Provide concrete motivation in funding, publication,
and career advancement
• Support personal encounters with affected
communities
• understand connections and context
• SDG issues exist globally as well as locally
• Provide support to diversify research careers
• Insufficient time to build capacity through new generation
Provide one-time lowered funding requirements
• Fund training programs to co-design SDG-related
research
Incentivize Science to address SDGs
• All funders map their funding program to SDGs
to simplify finding focussed funding
Funders
• Require every grant application to document
expected SDG contributions!
• Research not addressing SDGs remains fundable
• Raises awareness and motivates researchers to
consider their options to contribute
• Resulting metadata are openly shared,
connecting researchers potentially not aware of
their overlapping SDG interests – „Open
Research Maps“
Grant application
• Require a documentation of realized SDG
contributions for every formal publication
• Article as well as data
• Part of publication metadata
• Required keywords automatically mapped to the
SDG ontology
• Journals visualize this to raise awareness with
readers → e.g. RIO Journal
Publication
Example
from RIO
Journal
CC BY 4.0, © Pensoft
• Develop a code of conduct for
research that is socially and
environmentally aware
• Meta Research: Why is the message
not heard?
Prioritizing Current Efforts
Comments?
Ideas?

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