Keagan Rubel (MD, InnoCSR) presentation on the need to understand China's resource crisis and it's path towards sustainability

1. Understanding
China’s
Resource
Crisis
And
its
Path
Toward
Sustainability
China’s
Underappreciated
Nexus
of
Energy,
Water
and
Food
Presented
at
‘The
Future
of
Asian
Consump@on’
Green
Drinks
China
Event,
27
May
2013

2. • Energy
• Water
• Food
China’s
Resource
Landscape:
Focus
on
3
“Must-­‐Have”
Resource

3. China’s Resource Crisis: Key Take-Away
Ac@on
is
being
taken
–
what
are
business
implica@ons?
Demand
outstripping
supply,
trends
are
unsustainable
and
could
lead
to
economic
&
social
disrup@on
Parts
of
complex
systems
(ecological,
human),
and
must
be
considered
holis@cally
Inac@on
will
lead
to
significant
economic
and
social
disrup@on

4. Inter-­‐dependencies:
Energy,
Food,
Water
• Understanding
these
elements
as
parts
of
interdependent
systems
–
both
natural
and
human
– Energy
requires
water
• 20%
China’s
freshwater
used
for
coal,
increased
evapora@on
from
hydro
electricity
– Water
requires
energy
• Transpor@ng/pumping,
trea@ng
&
hea@ng
water
can
take
up
between
33%-­‐75%
of
energy
bills
in
many
ci@es
– Food
requires
water
and
energy
• 65%
Water
used
for
crop-­‐irriga@on
• Fer@lizers
are
very
energy
intensive,
also
transporta@on/
preserva@on
• Bioenergy
crops
compete
with
food
crops
for
land/water
• Fer@lizers
for
crops
are
pollu@ng
water-­‐systems
from
runoff

5. China’s
1st
in
Consump@on
E.g.:
Steel,
Cement,
Glass,
Housing,
Power,
Cars,
Highways,
High-­‐Speed
Rail
Systems,
Airports

6. Energy: Supply & Demand
China
annually
experiences
power
cuts
and
blackouts
• High
thermal
coal
prices
• Drop
in
hydropower
produc@on
• Excessive
demand
• Ra@oning
to
meet
regional
targets

7. Example: Electricity demand spike

8. Water: Quantity and Quality
China
is
“mining”
its
water
about
25%
faster
than
it
can
replenish
A
compounded
problem:
Low
availability
and
low
quality
China’s
per
capita
water
is
2,100
cubic
meters
–
28%
of
the
world
average
According
to
the
Ministry
of
Environmental
Protec@on
(MEP),
25%
of
China’s
water
only
fit
for
industrial
or
irriga@on.
That
means
75%
of
water
does
not
meet
the
standards
for
fish
farming
and
municipal
use.
China
has
capped
water
consump@on
at
700
million
cubic
meters
–
current
consump@on
is
at
600
million
cubic
meters
currently
Source:
ADB,
2012

9. Food: Driving Inflation

10. The Big Fear: Inflation

11. Energy: Consumption & Composition
Source:
IEA,
2011

12. China’s
Resource
Landscape:
Energy
China’s
Energy
Produc@on:
1997
China’s
Energy
Produc@on:
2010
Source:
www.circleoflue.org

13. The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file.
China’s
Water
Resources:
2002
China’s
Water
Resources:
2010
China’s
Resource
Landscape:
Water
Source:
www.circleoflue.org

14. China’s
Resource
Landscape:
Food
Food
produc@on,
1997
Food
produc@on,
2010
Source:
www.circleoflue.org

15. Climate Change: Amplifier Effect
China
loses
an
average
of
10%
of
annual
grain
output
a
year
to
extreme
weather
such
as
floods,
droughts,
rainstorms,
and
high/low
Water
is
the
primary
vector
of
climate
change
and
is
apparent
through
changing
paherns
of
availability
and
extreme
weather,
droughts
and
floods.
China
is
the
3rd
most
vulnerable
country
to
Climate
Change
in
the
G-­‐20
Countries
(aier
India
and
Indonesia)
Climate
Change
makes
Energy,
Water
and
Food
problems
worse

16. Sustainability
Targets
of
China’s
12th
FYP
Set
at
Na@onal
level

Province
level

City
level

Corporate
level
(some@mes)

17. Electricity sector fuel mixes
2010
2020

18. China’s Resource Nexus
20%
water
used
in
coal
value-­‐chain
Biofuels
compete
for
land
w/
food
17%
electricity
from
hydro
65%
water
used
for
irriga@on
Land
use
changes,
and
soil
impacts
Irriga@on
prac@ces
quite
wasteful
Fer@lizers
are
energy
intensive
Conflic@ng
needs
of
forestry
Water
losses
from
hydroelectricity
Coal
in
N,
Food
in
NW,
Water
in
South
Resource
Conflict
–
Energy,
Water,
Food

19. Key
points
keaganghg@gmail.com
+86
155
0213
6647
Resource
scarcity
must
be
considered
in
the
context
of
an
interdependent
system
Current
development
model
is
not
sustainable,
but
big
ac@on
is
being
taken
Understanding
the
context
is
the
key
to
aligning
with
these
strategic
priori@es
Being
part
of
the
solu@on
can
mean
big
profits
Addi@onal
Resources
Report:
Delloite,
2012:
No
Water
No
Energy,
No
Energy
No
Water
Report:
HSBC,
2012:
20
China
Climate
Risk
QuesCons
Website:
www.circleoflue.org